Andynonymous

Something Happening Here-?

2012-01-17T00:13:00.005Z

The Atlantic Magazine's Ta-Nehisi Coates is a senior editor for The Atlantic, where he writes about culture, politics, and social issues for TheAtlantic.com and the magazine. In today's blog he cites Alexis de Tocqueville and says he should be part of the Democracy in American canon.

I'll cite his lengthy De Tocqueville citation, but you'll need to read his blog for his thoughts. He does seem to find value here and is honest enough to admit the value, but cannot resist his personal bias towards things conservative... Or maybe I mis-read him.

De Tocqueville;
Centralization easily succeeds, indeed, in subjecting the external actions of men to a certain uniformity, which we come at last to love for its own sake, independently of the objects to which it is applied, like those devotees who worship the statue and forget the deity it represents.

Centralization imparts without difficulty an admirable regularity to the routine of business; provides skillfully for the details of the social police; represses small disorders and petty misdemeanors; maintains society in a status quo alike secure from improvement and decline; and perpetuates a drowsy regularity in the conduct of affairs which the heads of the administration are wont to call good order and public tranquillity; 49 in short, it excels in prevention, but not in action.

Its force deserts it when society is to be profoundly moved, or accelerated in its course; and if once the co-operation of private citizens is necessary to the furtherance of its measures, the secret of its impotence is disclosed. Even while the centralized power, in its despair, invokes the assistance of the citizens, it says to them: "You shall act just as I please, as much as I please, and in the direction which I please. You are to take charge of the details without aspiring to guide the system; you are to work in darkness; and afterwards you may judge my work by its results."

These are not the conditions on which the alliance of the human will is to be obtained; it must be free in its gait and responsible for its acts, or (such is the constitution of man) the citizen had rather remain a passive spectator than a dependent actor in schemes with which he is unacquainted.

t is undeniable that the want of those uniform regulations which control the conduct of every inhabitant of France is not infrequently felt in the United States. Gross instances of social indifference and neglect are to be met with; and from time to time disgraceful blemishes are seen, in complete contrast with the surrounding civilization. Useful undertakings which cannot succeed without perpetual attention and rigorous exactitude are frequently abandoned; for in America, as well as in other countries, the people proceed by sudden impulses and momentary exertions.

The European, accustomed to find a functionary always at hand to interfere with all he undertakes, reconciles himself with difficulty to the complex mechanism of the administration of the townships. In general it may be affirmed that the lesser details of the police, which render life easy and comfortable, are neglected in America, but that the essential guarantees of man in society are as strong there as elsewhere. In America the power that conducts the administration is far less regular, less enlightened, and less skillful, but a hundredfold greater than in Europe. In no country in the world do the citizens make such exertions for the common weal. I know of no people who have established schools so numerous and efficacious, places of public worship better suited to the wants of the inhabitants, or roads kept in better repair.

Uniformity or permanence of design, the minute arrangement of details,50 and the perfection of administrative system must not be sought for in the United States; what we find there is the presence of a power which, if it is somewhat wild, is at least robust, and an existence checkered with accidents, indeed, but full of animation and effort.

Granting, for an instant, that the villages and counties of the United States would be more usefully governed by a central au authority which they had never seen than by functionaries taken from among them; admitting, for the sake of argument, that there would be more security in America, and the resources of society would be better employed there, if the whole administration centered in a single arm--still the political advantages which the Americans derive from their decentralized system would induce me to prefer it to the contrary plan.

It profits me but little, after all, that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life, and if it so monopolizes movement and life that when it languishes everything languishes around it, that when it sleeps everything must sleep, and that when it dies the state itself must perish. There are countries in Europe where the native considers himself as a kind of settler, indifferent to the fate of the spot which he inhabits.

The greatest changes are effected there without his concurrence, and (unless chance may have apprised him of the event ) without his knowledge; nay, more, the condition of his village, the police of his street, the repairs of the church or the parsonage, do not concern him; for he looks upon all these things as unconnected with himself and as the property of a powerful stranger whom he calls the government. He has only a life interest in these possessions, without the spirit of ownership or any ideas of improvement.

This want of interest in his own affairs goes so far that if his own safety or that of his children is at last endangered, instead of trying to avert the peril, he will fold his arms and wait till the whole nation comes to his aid. This man who has so completely sacrificed his own free will does not, more than any other person, love obedience; he cowers, it is true, before the pettiest officer, but he braves the law with the spirit of a conquered foe as soon as its superior force is withdrawn; he perpetually oscillates between servitude and license.

I am reading "Beyond Mechanical Markets" by Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg. They are also authors of "Imperfect Knowledge Economics"

Chapter Two, page 46...

THE PRETENSE OF EXACT KNOWLEDGE
Far from attempting to minimize nonroutine activities, capitalist economies thrive on them. Yet Western economists seemed undeterred by the failure of central planners to comprehend and shape the future as if history unfolded according to fully predetermined mechanical rules. They set out to construct mathematical models that accurately capture how financial markets assess the prospects of alternative investment projects and companies not only today but for all past and future periods as well. Such fully predetermined models and the sharp predictions they produce are the hallmark of the contemporary approach to macroeconomics and finance.

I find the arrival of these two bits of information and others from normally nonconservative, nonindividualist, collectivist view point, political biased sources. There are others... I'll post em as I find em... You can find your own...

This political campaign season, besides being very nasty and personality-destruction oriented, will also be a conflict between the centralized-controlled, planned and manipulated economy and society vs the smaller, personal, private property oriented America of the Constitution and first century... Which will it be-?

2012 Predictions

2012-01-12T23:57:00.003Z

Kurzwell Accelerating Intelligence website has a round up of predictions for someone who is either in need of or has received accelerated intelligence...

Predictions... Like poetry-?

More people write them than read them.

New Year, New Wisdom-?

2012-01-12T18:01:00.004Z

It's not often that my morning reading throws up some good tidbits that combine to make things seem clearer, more optimistic, and generally uplifting.

The World Economic Forum has a list of 50 Risks for the coming year. As Inspector Renault said in Casablanca; "Round Up The Usual Suspects" They have and in keeping with anything titled "World" they have done so in 151 pages (64 in .pdf)... Scan when you can or use your imagination. A good counselor and wise person always starts with the obvious and proceeds to the Arcana. That makes the reader feel wisehttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif because; They knew it also. Still take a look.

Then contrast that with this article from Forbes; "Seven habits of Spectacularly Unsuccessful Executives" It's succinct and we all know these characters in our lives...and maybe we can identify a trait and stop ourselves from wading too far in that direction.

What do the two reports have in common... They highlight that most failures come from human frailty and success. Success stops hunting, stops running in fear of the chasing hordes who will come and take away market, talent, and provide something better, cheaper, easier, and cooler.

Albert Edwards of SocGen has some 11 forecasts... Again, most of which we knew, but it's nice to see the smart and rich people see much the same. This also comes with links and references to other. Have fun.

Watching the Know-Nothings dance around the pyre of Bain Capital is sad and interesting. All the Republicans who deplore growth of government, crony-capitalism and bail-outs of the Too-Large-To-Fail will have a hard time expressing those charges against President Obama when they have taken his side of the argument and savaged Romney... There are many stories in all the media... It's sad. We should be having a different discussion. This is a golden opportunity to educate and embolden American Entrepreneurs and business.

BUT it's also a reflection on our economic education level in America. TV and the schools have spent the last 50 years trashing business and denying that economic rules have consequences. The politicians have convinced many that only -THEY- can save them from the evil rich... Free Enterprise means "FREEDOM to risk your own money. Freedom to lose every penny. Freedom to provide a value for which consumers will pay a premium over your costs. Freedom to get rich." Free Enterprise does not mean a guaranteed anything... No jobs are guaranteed. No company is guaranteed that it will exist forever. No one is guaranteed that they will get rich. No one will have any assurance that they will not waste their money and time in pursuit of the dream. Seemingly, those who would be our Political Masters want to guarantee the success of every American... They cannot do that. They can only diminish the ability to risk much or be rewarded much...

Most people cannot tell you the difference between an "Operating Statement" or a "Balance Sheet". Yet, they all want to be paid more next year. They all want to have a safe and comfortable retirement. But they cannot be bothered with the math, the economics, the tools necessary to assure their participation in their own success. They simply wish to hire someone and sue when expectations fail to arrive. Is it any wonder that we have cities, counties and possibly states that will be broke by this time next year-? Free Money and lots of it is the only answer...as those self-proclaimed leaders hide from the hard details and call for bailouts to make it all go away. Do we have more road to kick-the-can-down-? Some say "NO-!"

Sad... America was once the home of the free...but we have chosen to look at our shoes and accept the words of fools as wisdom. We even lack the ability and initiative to read the books, watch the business channels, look up companies on the internet, and take care of our own future. Our wise-men are flailing about...

Looks like a very interesting year ahead. I recall someone saying that's a ancient Chinese curse. "May you live in interesting times"... Blessing or curse, we seem to have one and there is no way to avoid it.

Two-Way Streets

2012-01-11T20:26:00.003Z

CBC Radio (aka Canadian Govt Radio) Has a report on a http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifpodcast by Susannah Breslin on the topic "Why Do Men Go To Strip Clubs?" It's an interesting tidbit... and really the responses are predictable.

I replied simply with an observation that each report and each question asked reveals something by -both- parties. The interlocutor and the respondent. Usually, Much-much more about the one asking the questions.

What do you think Susannah Breslin's report says about -her- ?

The reason this topic resonates with me is that I have spent a few moments listening to Those-Who-Would-Be-President during this reality TV season of debates, analysis, analysis and debates. A contest somewhere between American Idol, Survivor, and "Everybody Is Famous For Ten Minutes"... The TV people -LOVE- this as it draws eyeballs, is cheap theater, and tunes up their election coverage teams for the pig slop/bun fight that awaits us over the Summer and Fall. Nov 9, 2012 will be a day of silence...before they start telling us -WHAT- it all means... The silence will be wonderful.

Watching the most recent debate with Geo. Stephanopoulos and Diane Sawyer, she who always looks as tho she is just about to well up in tears... I could not help seeing -WHY- the mainstream TV people are losing audience viewers. They simply cannot get a conversation going and let the speaker reveal. They want -all- the talk after the event to be about -THEM-. Dick Gregory, on the earlier debate showed his ignorance and inability to be a reporter of events rather than an antagonist and party to the event.

New and unknown people would be much better at letting the candidates speak... It's a thought.

What is obvious is that attempting to be all-things-to-all-people is foolish and annoying. Be the same person you are at home-alone. We'll decide. The Media Made Cypher we have shows that The Media is not up to the job.

We Can Do Better.

MOVING...

2012-01-09T20:14:00.004Z

I have been very quiet. This is because I tend to follow the instructions that Thumper's father gave him, and he related to Bambi; "If you can't say something nice, say nothing at all" ... I lack the active and endlessly childishness to be like Alice Longworth who famously said "If you have nothing nice to say, come and sit beside me."

The Blog-O-Sphere is -? Well, what is it-? Relevant any longer-? Or just a toy for old folks-? Hard to say. Tweeters and Facebookers have their own instant popularity and sharing... The aggregators still do -ok- some few better than the many others who are serving the same watered down broth. a few bloggers are doing their own reporting. Digging for facts and examining the public documents, crunching the numbers... but if cited the eyes roll and some wise person always says "Well, that's just a blog."

Given the performance of the Established, Credentialed, Mainstream, Establishment Media over these past ten years... I am given to roll my own eyes and think, if not say; "Well, you know how objective they are"... Watching the American Idol/Survivor show also-known-as Republican Debates... I can see how shallow their ability to examine and question has grown. The old axiom of "Use It or Lose it" applies to these extremely well paid and brilliantly made up-perfect-hair-people... They have lost it. They are no longer serious people for a serious time. They have surrendered their integrity for the sham of ratings and dollars... I changed the channel.

Watching their questions makes me realize that a question asked tells about -BOTH- speakers. The interrogator and the respondent. Barbara waters asking President Obama what super hero or super power he would have, or what flaws/faults does he have... No wonder they didn't cover the white House Halloween party. Full tilt Hollywood bash with Alice in wonderland theme, Johnny Depp, et al... a surprise-? Only to those who knew noting about it. Seeing the First Family in Louis XIV garb seems all too appropriate and easy...

The country is broke. People have been out of work for years. The President iis assuming royal powers, the numbers are being manipulated and nobody inquires about their veracity... and he has signed a law that allows him, and his military to sweep the streets, collecting any American they wish. They can hold them for decades without charge or notification to family or concerned associates.... Soon he will pop up and seek -YET ANOTHER- $1.2 trillion dollars in debt limit increase...

For those not paying attention; a trillion is one million individual millions. $1.2 trillion equals one million, two hundred thousand million dollars. That is a lot of money... we have already increased the limit and borrowed over $5 trillion...and that is just in his three years in office.

We are borrowing $.40 of every dollar we spend. ... The Adult Media wonders what super powers he would have or what flaws he has-? Something ain't right here. Are there any adults available who can face the reality of our impending disaster-?

See how easy it is to become a political pundit... anyone can do it. I just did...Wow-! aren't I a Pretty Bird-?

I have wondered what topics I can write about. what can I share and still remain, basically, a nice guy who values his privacy...

I'm still working on that...

But I am planning on departing California. Moving to some place more rational. California has been the cultural leader for America most of my life. despite the great people, wonderful climate and feeling of being the first to see "The Next Great Thing"... I am afraid that California will soon show America what happens when a state is financially broke. Nobody knows what happens when a state goes bankrupt. can it even file for bankruptcy-? Raising taxes and driving up costs are one factor in my decision. I am also tired of living on the bleeding edge of every social experiment that comes along... The state is broke. we owe the state employees and their pensions more money that is available. we believe in green-everything- and we refuse to develop the oil deposits that leak-naturally- from the ground and spoil the beaches.

The state wil soon lose the bothersome Pacific Cargo trade as the expanded Panama Canal allows larger ships and larger containers. The shippers, and shipping lines, will gladly by-pass these west Coast ports with their history of labor strife and political football... Hollywood remains a big deal. BUT most of the big money people and movies are owned outside of the state... You can fund 2-3-4 new movies just on the taxes you save.

In short, I see California being 6 months to 2 years ahead of the nation in our cultural rush to destruction. I'm not big enough to float thru any crisis, wise enough to time it, or energetic enough to take advantage of the fantastic opportunities that always arise in the midst of destruction...

Oregon looks interesting. California with trees, but the same social disconnect. Gown v Town played on the statewide level. democrats and unions in charge of everything... But it does hold some interest.

Virginia is nice. No, not NO-VA...that band of communities that border the capitol of the planet. I am over my temptation with the halls of power at the center of the universe. It is not my personality. I hold truth, trust and relationships too dear. I cannot deal secrets and betray trusts for the fleeting advance...The beaches are nice, but...too many people...Lots of humans make me nervous... Maybe Charlottesville or some place smaller--and in the mountains-? Shenandoah, what a lovely song and nice valley...

Florida-? Probably will win the battle. They seem to want old folks. Their tax structure is inviting. The Panhandle is nice. They have four seasons. The sand is nice, clean, soft-like powdered sugar. Not too many people-yet- that will change. Soon Knoxville, Atlanta, Birmingham and Montgomery will be an easy drive... Much like Los Angeles to Las Vegas or The Bay Area to Tahoe and Reno. Plus the air services will grow... Lots of and for homes, golf courses, etc and -ll- those small businesses that support Geezers and their related New Money

I'm up in the air-at this writing.

I am changing my life. I am readng much more than in years gone past. I have rediscovered music...lots of music...From classic symphony and opera, to big band-American Songbook Standards, rock, country, jazz.... So much new to me...and it feels like water in the desert...

Just a few of the things I have missed while I chased leprechauns and rainbows across the world...and never got a firm grasp on the famous Pot-O-Gold... I had finger tips on it a couple of times. I just "couldna make a fist of it" as a Scotsman told me once. I had a good run and some adventures...can't complain or brag, just smile in my Geezer-dom

Suggestions-? What would you do-? If you have read this far then you have some interest.

Conversation

2011-07-02T18:28:00.003Z

Of all the old traditions that have slipped away due to email, text, instant message, plus the changes in society where there are no societal penalties for lying; the one thing I most miss is conversation.

I do not see people sitting and talking, with or without alcohol. Just plain conversing, sharing ideas, opinions, and perspectives on the world. The young in bars seem to NED loud music so that talk is hard and barest communications must be shouted... Houses lack front porch to sit and observe the passing parade... Living rooms are dominated by flickering bhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.giflue lights and sound systems, combined which cost more than the vehicle in the driveway... A visit to the home of a friend is often done with the TV going. I'm old. I cannot focus my complete attention on two things at a time. I give my priority to the person, live, and present.

Funny thing is, when I mute the TV or turn it off, the person stops talking. They seem to feel they are interfering somehow... yet, what they do not -get- is that I value their presence and words more than the babbling heads or silly drama/comedies that are selling me products.

I am presently reading "Robert Frost The Poet as Philosopher" by Peter Stanlis.

Robert Frost felt he could not be a true poet until he found his conversational voice. He paid attention to what people say, how they said it and what they meant. English is a growing, broad and inclusive language. We have many words. we can use them in a wide variety of ways

Prosody is a very interesting are for me. Being a Southerner, I have been aware of the way people speak my whole life. The rhythms, spacing, phrases chosen can be almost musical. Some people have a wondrous melody in their language. Others can say the same words and it sounds like metal being hit with a hammer. Words are not the sole conveyors of meaning. Prosody tells much more to the listener.

Songs are good examples of conversation in melody. Nobody would compliment Bob Dylan solely on his voice. His words, phrasing and voice complete the story and make it memorable and him entertaining. I have long loved the cello and violin for their resemblance to the human voice. They can convey such a range of warm emotions and feelings...

The songs of older generations had a phrasing that reflected rhythms of walking, rocking or movement. The newer music sounds, to me, as tho the person does not exercise. The music is short, choppy, and the voice conveys momentary passions. I do not hear the thought behind the feelings, just the emotion. Is it me- or- ?

I have had a few conversations with friends, strangers and relatives that resonate through the years. I don't remember so much what I said, but what I learned. We shared conversations that lasted an hour or two or all through the evening. I must have contributed something of value for them to stay and educate me.

I've wondered about the great leap in human evolution when we went from hunter-gatherer to farmer-herder... Some books on paleo-anthropology think that we grew a larger brain to handle to larger society and political inter-play that came with all the changes. I'm not sure that is the complete answer.

Supposedly we needed a larger language to convey messages between more people. We needed to band together for protection and to share crops, surplus, winter supplies and seeds for the coming year. We neded warriors to protect us, leaders to lead the warriors, taxes to pay for people who fight and train, and writing to note who has payed and who owes their taxes, plots of land, how many animals etc. All of which seems logical and probibly true.

I have read others who say that as hunter bands we used sounds more sparingly and specifically. That we needed to communicate across distance but could not use a human voice as it would frighten the prey. Some writers see us dancing to share our tales of the hunt. Where we went, what we encountered and how we overcame it... all of that seems also true... Mostly, we taked. With words, melodious sounds, music we spent a great amount of time learning from one another and learning about one another.

Now, we have the electronic medium that allows strangers to communicate, share/buy/sell music, spout any idea we wish, say any foolishness and spread any lies we wish... We have no way of identifying the speaker. we have no way of confirming their knowledge, wisdom, experience as actual, real and not fantasy. Children are wonders at mimicking their parents and other adults... how do we know if we speak/listen with an adult or precocious child-?

for me, it's time. Children have a short attention span and cannot hold their interest for long. I also use big words and look for them in return. English has approximately 100,000 words. On average we use less than 5,000 in our daily conduct. All those left over words just lie there, waiting. Why so many-? specific words for specific feelings, meanings, items-? adoptions and adaptations of other languages that have blended in. Examples would be Boutique, Boondocks and you can supply your own...But when those words are used we know specifically what they mean... we also know the way they sound and the song we are composing as we form the next sentence.

Learning is something we do without even being aware. We find meaning in several levels with each sentence we say or hear. What was meant-? What was not meant-? Why -those- words-? did the word jangle with the rest of the sentence-? Yes, we are more complex than we thought... and more simple... After all, we're human. what -exactly- that means is something we are each defining as we go ahead with the business of living.

Now that I read for my personal pleasure I take time to read all the words and consider what the author meant. I am not fighting a clock to find nuggets of information that I can shape into bullets for my next encounter across the boardroom table o large desk.

Poetry has more meaning now. So should blog. I fear that blogs like poetry has more creators than consumers.

Truth

2011-06-29T23:02:00.004Z

I wish that Paul Eckman had been more successful. Perhaps he was. But Heisenberg struck again. Humans being adaptable we have only gotten better at presenting the false as the true.

Finding truth is hard. Truth is time dated. Truth is often situational and based on the perspective of the observer. Truth is mostly something we avoid. We accept words from others as true. We don't examine our own words, motives and beliefs. We swear that we are speaking the truth. Yet, we're not sure that it is anything more that the "at this time" truth.

I have met people who lie as a test of my integrity, memory, and honesty. I have met those who lie simply because it is convenient and short. They see the truth as something that will require a long story, possibly revealing details about themselves or their loved ones best kept private.

When I meet a new person, I almost never inquire too deeply. Why ask for something uncomfortable to be revealed or force a lie-? Let each person sing their own song. If it's pretty, pleasing and accepted then that is all required for social chat.

Words say only 10% of our meaning. Or so I read long ago from an author I cannot remember. Most communication is done by body language. Some say that body language is 60-70% of our communication. Inflection, intonation and phrasing make up the remaining 20-30% of meaning. My Mother-in-Law was a master at speaking in an insulting tone then reverting to pained defense when repeating her words. Hard woman to be around. Luckily she made it clear she disliked me from the start. I tried to be social, polite and agreeable. I was there because of my wife and later the grand children. It's easy to be around people who dislike you and you know it. There is no wondering what you have done wrong, this time or at any time. She was an enigma. I have yet to meet anyone who felt they knew her.

The tale about the Garden of Eden is a lesson that too few actually spend much time considering. It is the first time (earliest-?) we have a tale about nakedness (and idea that something is wrong with seeing one another uncovered), lying and punishment.

I have wondered about that tale often. Some think it harkens back to a time before we began farming and herding for most of our diet. The tales of Cain and Abel are of a hunter and a farmer, murder and again a lie. What puzzles me is the Tree.

Specifically, "The Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil"

Why the "Knowledge of Good and Evil"-? Why Both-?

Spending time around animals, dogs mostly these day. But around horses, cows and chickens as a child, I find no memory of an animal knowing either good or evil... Why-? Animals understand right and wrong. They learn behavior. They know what -we- their leaders demand and expect. We humans also know what our leaders expect, demand, coerce. If we don't we soon find out.

Hitler, Mao, Stalin, Pol Pot, Saddam, and unnamed butchers around the world slaughter and slay humans using the efforts of other humans. Are they speaking any objective truth to convince their accomplices-? Do they simply lie and manipulate their desires to please, do good, help, improve, share the burden of leadership, etc. to convince others that slaughtering the innocents is a good thing-?

Where is "Good" and where is "Evil"-? Most will not see -real- good in their life. There are acts of kindness. But finding, observing, doing a real act of sacrifice for another is beyond them. We also refuse to recognize "evil" in an act and most particularly when it is laying latent, resting, within another. We listen to smooth blandishments and accept them as something true that explains to our naive ears/eyes what we thought we perceived was wrong.

We have had peace for a long period of human history. Europe has not had such a long period with neither wars between nations or bands of roving brigands seizing territory and conquering tribes to claim status as a nation, in a very long time.

Does this mean that Evil is vanquished-? That Good prevails around the world and that only confusion exists today-?

I wish I could accept that. Unfortunately, I have too much background, too much reading, too many associations with warriors to see the world as safe and peaceful.

So back to the original thought; What is "Truth"-? And why do we think we live in it-?

Life is precious. It is easy to kill and ruin life. It is hard to bring it into being, to nurture and protect it, and to educate tthe next generation that bad things happen to good people far too often while good things happen to bad people more often than we wish. How do we teach our children to know Truth from Lie and Good from Evil-?

What was really in that fruit-? Did we eat enough or just enough to grow foolish and believe we can aspire to meet a diety as an equal-?

As I age, I get more questions and find fewer answers... When I was young, I had many more answers and fewer questions.

AS I age, and as I listen-watch-observe, those would be our masters perform; I wonder if it is more dangerous to speak the truth or to simply ignore, cover it or spin it (a polite way of lying)... Which breeds more monsters-? Which feeds their analysis of the speaker/leader's strength and weakness-?

The chattering class who leap in and tell us how to think about what we just heard seem mindless, credentialed-but-ignorant, people who have never walked down a street they did not belong alone and unarmed.

Why Is The Economy Stalled-?

2011-06-05T21:22:00.003Z

Michael Barone has a piece in the Washington Examiner asking this question. The responses reflect the absence of much adult, knowledgeable thought. No surprise as the internet allows anyone to spout off and demonstrate their wisdom. America has been known throughout our history as a place where the "yahoo's" and loudmouths are free to babble whatever they wish. Often, like the innocent lad watching the parade who asked "Why is the Emperor naked-?" the scales fall and we see our leaders revealed as mere mortals and not very respectable, honorable, wise ones at that.

Here is my view of the present economic situation....yes, it like everything on this blog or the internet is "For What It's Worth"...

I was hearing about Obama in the 4th quarter of '07. I was doing an acquisition and speaking to finance people-mostly high-net-worth-individuals. They were heading for the bunkers. stopping and unraveling their small business ventures. They foresaw a rise in taxes, capital gains and regulations. Since then, most small-mid-sized owners have felt that their government has drawn a gun and is using smoothing talk to make everyone ignore it. The rise in regulations, potential regulations, changes in law interpretations of established practices all make us uncertain.

Banks and lenders are all facing unknown regulations and capital reserve requirements. It is cheaper and safer to borrow at close to 0% and lend via T-bills. Balance sheets look safer and no questioning the lenders creditworthiness. They are raising what fees and charges they can as often as they can. Nobody knows what the rules will be in 2-3-5-10 years.

This is first time in over 40 years I have no payroll to meet. That is uncomfortable as a changed habit. However, I cannot see placing any resources at risk in this environment. We simply have no clue about what the rules will be, how much we must raise prices to pay for compliance, what changes in equipment will be, whether the consumer or buyers will pay the increased prices.

High risk for low or modest reward is a fools game and very likely criminal. Low risk for high reward is a lottery ticket. Most of us seek a modest/manageable risk with a slightly higher foreseeable reward. we manage risks and provide our personal bond to guarantee the trust a buyer places in us, lenders and suppliers place in us. This climate is fraught with too many variables that are simply unknown and unknowable.

"Fundamentally Transforming America" is something that we cannot quantify or evaluate and respond to. Profits are great, but losses are personal. We pledge our property, our name and our honor behind our ventures.

Who chooses risks their reputation in this climate-?

Who accepts our personal bond, in this climate-?

It is better to sit and watch, awaiting a clear path than to risk so much for so little.

Not THAT Unexpected

2011-06-01T21:19:00.004Z

The headlines from the White House and other news people is that the current economic situation is -unexpected-... They never say -who- didn't expect it. But they sure are saying it often. Headlines from the past two weeks show the use of the phrase again and again. -WHY-?

I don't geddit.
These are supposedly smart, adult type humans. They have told us again and again how smart and capable they are. I doubt they would even be elected as a high school class president or members of the student council with this silliness. This is even below sophomoric. It's just bull garbage-! By being "surprised" they are hoping that that we will not notice that they were hired to -not be surprised-.

Even if they lack the personal experience of the grade school playground, marketplace dynamics, competition...they should know better. Seemingly, they are admitting their ignorance. So, -why should we re-elect them?-

Today's WSJ has a front page about the housing mess. That was a surprise to somebody. I'm not sure why they didn't see these numbers coming. As they say in Washington, "It's politics..." Which means "How can we spin this so it won't blow back on us-? Quick find someone to blame."

The WSJ, today, has a column by John Huntsman concerning our predicament.

"Unless we make hard decisions now, in less than a decade every dollar of federal revenue will go to covering the costs of Medicare, Social Security and interest payments on our debt. We'll sink even deeper in debt to pay for everything else, from national security to disaster relief. American families will fall behind the economic security enjoyed by previous generations. Our country will fall behind the productivity of other countries. Our currency will be debased. Our influence in the world will wane. Our security will be more precarious. "

"Those who disagree with his approach incur a moral responsibility to propose reforms that would ensure Medicare's ability to meet itshttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif responsibilities to retirees without imposing an unaffordable tax burden on future generations of Americans. "

The online journal has a video conversation about what these economic reports mean for President Obama's re-election prospects with John Fund for those who like video. Me-? I like written words... spoken words and video are ok, but not my preference for the computer. OK- I'm old fashioned.

They have a column by George Melloan regarding the -mess- our Federal Reserve Bank has created and how difficult it will be to change things.

Melloan cites this article in Forbes by William F. Ford and Walker F. Todd

"The Federal Reserve has responsibilities and powers that no other American bank has. It can create money, for one thing, without being limited in its monetary expansion by the reserve requirements that bind ordinary banks. Also, the Fed's Board of Governors interprets the relevant statutes expansively as including a mandate to be the "lender of last resort" to the American banking system. "

"Finally, a major portion of the Fed's huge reported profits resulted from its heavy use of leverage since 2007, as the Fed roughly has tripled the size of its balance sheet in response to the financial crisis. By doing this, the central bank ignores the leverage ratios that both U.S. and international capital rules mandate for private commercial banks. At year-end 2007, the Fed had capital equal to about 4% of its total assets, or 25:1 leverage. By year-end 2010, the Fed had only 2.2% capital (now 1.95%), which implies leverage of 45:1 (now over 51:1). The Federal Reserve Bank of New York also now has an astounding 98:1 leverage ratio. "

Even if you have never read an economics book, discussed finances with your banker, or done much more than balance your check book and buy your house, you owe it to yourself to understand the dynamics of the times we face. These articles will be a good place to start. A subscription to -both- The wall street Journal and Forbes magazine would be great. At first, it may be confusing. Keep reading. In a short time all this goobledy-gook will make sense. And you will get upset at our leaders and hired "wise-people". They are fools and do not live in the same world we inhabit.

They have bitten deeply of the poisoned apple and drunk deeply into the well of Marxism-Socialism-Progressive-ism... They truly believe that -they know best- and that we, Americans, will be best served by re-distribution of the wealth of the rich. It is a scam. There are not that many rich people. Soon, their massive government will need to tax anyone foolish enough to still be working to pay for 1) govt employees and their golden retirements 2) all the "poor and needy" that will come in sliced and carved up groups. No more -AMERICANS- just groups all coming together under some mystical leader to achieve something wonderful...

The most wonderful thing we can do is to vote em out of office and demand a smaller government. Americans do not need to be herded, ranched, branded, and coddled so that we can produce more, more, ever more for an ever larger government. Let's stop this next year.

Housing Market

2011-05-31T20:52:00.004Z

I must be dense. The problems with housing prices, new home starts and foreclosures doesn't seem that big a deal. The market keeps trying to act as markets always do. When there is a huge supply, prices go down. When there is a limited supply, prices go up.

Our government keeps throwing money at the markets trying to keep house prices high. The lenders get hammered by political winds concerned about foreclosures, lowered prices, demands for higher quality loans and lots of politics. every politician wants to give away the property to the deserving and needy poor... But that seems to mean that someone has to take the loss. None of the lenders want to lose any more than they must. So, with political pressure, they hold off foreclosing and pretend the loans are being serviced. In the meantime Fannie and Freddie keep spending money like they had it...well, they do now. They have no other shareholders but the U.S.Government. Why do we allow those companies to remain in existence-? Oh-! Yeah, politics. slush funds for constituents and jobs for lovers-du-jour.

In the meantime, New Home starts are not finding loans, buyers with large enough down payments and face competition from older homes, less-than-10-years-old that are in foreclosure... meaning possibly more square footage, more prestigious community, established schools and safe neighborhoods...

Also, underlying -ALL- of the above is the dynamic of demographics. Yes, Boomers are retiring at large numbers. They will likely inherit their parents house at about the same time as they retire. They will have two houses, paid off or mostly so. Will they sell at discount to shore-up and replace damaged retirement accounts-? Will they hold and try to rent them out while seeking warmer climes for their golden years-?

All of this is playing out and would move faster with probably a bit more predictability -IF- the politicians got out of the housing game. Is that likely to happen-? Nope. Giving away the property of others is a great way to be re-elected again and again... plus depressed housing prices slows the migration to warmer, non-union states... meaning less stress from redistricting and new boundaries with un-bribed constituents... SO; Nope the politicians have found some catnip and will roll all over it...

The old saying that "Demographics is destiny" applies here. Boomers are the first generation, in history, whose numbers are larger than the preceding generation and the following generation, combined. That means huge demands for entitlement spending, medical services, and changes in their discretionary buying patterns... They have everything. What will they spend their "play money" aka "entitlement largess" on-? Will they invest in businesses-? some may-not many. Will they get scammed by schemers like Bernie Madoff-? Yes, quite a few will. They have never had money to blow and the promise of secure, safe, outsized returns will be too hard to resist. (I saw an ad in the WSJ today promising 22% return on capital over 5 years.... P.T. Barnum said "There's one born every minute"... WHY would anyone thing they can -SAFELY- get a 22% ROI without taking an outsized risk-?) Most boomers have been "wage slaves" their entire life. They may have enough to remain comfortable as the years come in. However, I'm betting that the sharks smell greenbacks in the water and will soon be swirling about.

While we're -all- focusing on the housing market and return of "stagflation" we are ignoring the -boom- in new car sales. why are cars selling so readily-? GM spun off it's old GMAC in bankruptcy and then bought a new bank to make loans to their new car buyers. Why-? Cause new car sales mean big sales results, a quick IPO and pay-back to the U.S. Government... And the sooner the unions can sell the stock they took in the bankruptcy....then the Unions can turn about and demand more- everything-, cause that's what unions do. When your pension plan is invested in the company you gotta have profits to make investors buy the stock. So, as a union, you can't go on strike, make crappy cars and return to war against evil management and the shareholders and lenders... BUT...Nobody is looking at the quality of the new car buyers to continue to make payments. Nobody is examining -who- is buying all these new cars. Another financial meltdown-? Maybe-maybe not...but the politicians, unions and deal-makers who securitize the new car loans would sure benefit until it collapses...

Housing and automobiles are two huge drivers of the national economy (jobs). They consume lots of resources, require lots of transportation services, and mean jobs for a very large number of people. More than the military, but I doubt they mean more jobs than the combined state, county, municipal and federal government... I suspect that governments make more paychecks and have more promised in retirement.

The cash for clunkers wiped out a bunch of the used car market...so used car prices are up...almost equal to a new car... I get suspicious when I see the market acting in unusual ways... I like the old "buy low, sell high" and "surplus equals lower prices, scarcity equals higher prices" rules... When the politicians fingers are playing in the marketplace, one must be very quick and very clever to stay on the good (profitable) side of the deal. Politicians never worry about consequences...Why-? Cause voters (and our media proxies ) are lazy, have short memories and don't want to dig into the details of why-what-and what next-? They profit from our carelessness... and year after year, they keep doing it.

They depend on our being too busy with our lives to notice how they are robbing us...or they used to... Since they have over promised us into near bankruptcy, everyone is watching where the money goes.... Plus this internet thing allows ideas to flow unfiltered... We can communicate without the usual bribed gatekeepers and media guardians... Do we really need the pretty people explaining everything in baby talk-? Are we really -that- ignorant, naive, trusting, complacent-?

They depend on it. So do the predators who are coming for the scarce retirement dollars available when boomers suddenly have too much time and nothing to do all day.

Risk Assessment

2011-05-30T16:19:00.003Z

The purpose of good management and good investing is to find the most realistic/likely scenario out of all the rosy and frightening scenarios. As the risk of loss goes up the rate of return must also go up. We expect more for the amount of risk we are willing to face. Natural and prudent in almost all situations. The problem these days is that it is really hard to accurately see what the future holds 12-18-36 months from now. Is it truly as rosy as the Administration says-? If so, why do they "fudge" the numbers-? I say "fudge" because it seems someone is selecting the data that will support their political needs.
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From Yahoo News/Reuters comes the report that "Nervous Investors Demand Bigger Returns".

"The world looks a lot more dangerous than it did only a few months ago and signs are that U.S. stock investors are starting to demand more for the added risk.

With important manufacturing and jobs data due next week, it could start to get even riskier.

That means nervous investors are likely to keep a lid on equity prices this year as they grapple with slowing global growth and a host of geopolitical risks from the Arab Spring to debt defaults in the euro zone."

Are we facing a period of higher economic and military risks. Will our political leaders/masters actually do something responsible and adult-? will we get words and spin or action-?

I have little faith in those sheep who claim to be our leaders but act like masters. Deeds count for more than words. Washington and our politicians generate words by the metric ton. Yet, even they do not know for what they are voting. They know little and careless about the effects of their pounds of verbiage. If it has a good sounding title, then what devilment is inside is fine. Their only concern is that no angry responses come back to them, specifically. Words are easy to hide behind. What have they done-? The Democrats haven't offered any budget proposals for over two years. Why-? Do they lack ideas or fear the reality that comes from standing for something-?

A question I have not found anyone able to answer; " We have borrowed and spent over one trillion dollars in something called stimulus. Have we received as much national economic good as if we had chosen one million citizens at random and given them one million dollars, tax-free-?"

I doubt that most people can tell you that a trillion is one million, millions. That number is simply too large for most of us to comprehend. We are running a debt of almost one million, five hundred thousand millions at present. We are strapped. If we have a national disaster we will be hard pressed to respond.

The usual answers are to raise taxes. But most often our sheepish leaders sell us a tax increase as applying only to the rich. What they do not tell us is that there are not enough rich people to pay for the mess we're in.

Their forecasts imply that a tax increase will bring no change in behavior on the part of those feeling the brunt. we all now that if our taxes go up, much like the cost of food and transportation, we have less to support the lifestyle. It does not take a leap of genius to realize that those who earn less also pay less. The rich own things. Our tax structure is based on income. Their income can be adjusted to earn less with much less pain than the poor or middle classes. As a past company owner I know that if we needed new equipment that cost would come from my income. Same with new facilities, repairs, upgrades, and increased wages. The owner gets paid last. Raise my taxes and I spend more on my company. I doubt that I am the only one who would make that choice.

The middle class has no such option. They are stuck with what they earn. If the company can't pay more then change jobs. But with this current high level of unemployment there are easily a couple of hundred people who will step up for that "low" paying job... So in reality, any tax increase is going to hit the middle class hardest. Our leaders cannot understand that -or- they think we can't. Either way, we're being lied to.

If we raise taxes and they hit the middle class will they demand higher wages or buy fewer consumer goods or simply hunker down and wait for this cycle to end-? My guess is a bit of all. Raising wages would work if customers would pay a higher price. If they refuse to buy the company goes under. A bankrupt company gets no praise for raising wages and paying more in taxes...

How does a country go bankrupt-? When we have no more credit and have refused again and again to cut our expenses what happens-? When a country spends itself into insolvency-what happens-? We don't know. It hasn't happened to the U.S. before. smaller countries have been rescued and placed on strict fiscal austerity budget. Do we turn over our country to the IMF and World Bank-?

So, yes. These are perilous times. Things must change and change quickly. will our "leaders" actually lead-? They claim to be Leaders every two years. Yet, now, when we really need some leadership we seem to be lacking.

Always Surprised-?

2011-05-29T18:06:00.008Z

The headline says "Pro-Obama media always shocked by bad economic news"

The article then goes on to explain, expand and support the headline. What it also explains is who is surprised and why.

Michael Barone (author of article) is very good with numbers. He is too much a gentleman(?) or has too much to lose by saying what most of us would say...

"We're being lied to." Like children who will be frightened if we know the truth.

Unemployment figures are -only- the numbers of people drawing unemployment checks. It does not include the numbers of people who have exhausted they benefits, who never had them (contractors, consultants, sole proprietors, etc) or those who have given up looking. Some wise people estimate that the true number of those without a job and who wish they had one is double the official figures. Why not simply count the numbers reporting income pre-depression and subtract the numbers of people reporting today-? They do not include everyone who has graduated from college, high school, graduate school or released from active military service... -Why-? These are surely people who are unemployed... But they are ignored in official numbers.

Inflation numbers are rigged. They do not include the cost of food or transportation. The most obtuse and dense shopper knows thhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifat food prices are going up and not coming down. Food makers are doing two things to hide the fact. Some use smaller packaging. Some use "bonus" extra sizing and some are doing both... The fact is that food prices are up. Gasoline and diesel costs more. That means it costs more to get to/from work, go shopping, go on vacation, go anywhere. It also means that the average family is spending $168 dollars per month more on fuel. Higher prices dry-up demand for consumer impulse and non-essential products.

Companies, big and small, are sitting on their cash. The WSJ's Intelligent Investor column on Saturday ran an article asking "What Will It Take for Companies to Unlock Their Cash Hoards? "

He says "There is a cash crisis in corporate America—although it comes not from a shortage of the stuff, but from a surplus.

In the first quarter, the five companies with the greatest cash hoards—Micrhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifosoft, Cisco Systems, Google, Apple and Johnson & Johnson—added $15 billion in cash and marketable securities to their balance sheets. Microsoft alone packed away roughly $9 billion, or $100 million a day. All told, the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are sitting on more than $960 billion in cash, a record.

To be sure, at many companies the cash piling up is at global operations that generate "undistributed foreign earnings" that can't be brought home, under U.S. law, without incurring taxes of up to 35%. But hundreds of billions in cash remain available—and idle."

What the author fails to report/recognize is that 1) Bank lending criteria has changed. 2) SEC regulations have changed 3) The affects of Obama Regulations and legal judgements are unknown 4) If the cash is paid out and a disaster or opportunity arises, the company will have a hard time replacing it. Even re-tooling to remain compliant and up-to-date will require cash, from where will it come-?

The biggest culprit is the affect of unknown/unknowable regulations. The new financial act creates new agencies that write new regulations. It creates a czar who cannot be fired by the President. Who Congress cannot control and cannot even de-fund. Who is unaccountable to the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. And finally, who can tap the public Treasury for unlimited funds at any time, for any reason. Sarbanes-Oxley has killed the IPO market without touching -any- of the ills that led Congress to act. The new financial act will do nothing to regulate or control the root cause of this depression. FASB is still thinking of another mark-to-market rule. Fannie and Freddie are still alive and draining the Treasury of unknown future amounts. They are also still not being addressed as the problems they are. The fools who created them, ran the and enjoyed the perks/benefits of their irresponsible behavior have not been chastised or punished. Probably never will either. Crimes and moral turpitude at high levels and among the political class are never punished...

As a small/mid-sized businessman, -at this moment-. I am glad I have no employees, no business involvement, no exposure to the unknowns and the scary knowns, implied or implicit, or possible future unknowns... I have no payroll or employees for the first time in 40 years. It is a strange feeling. I never planned to retire this way. I don't like it. Being idle is uncomfortable.

I keep looking for opportunities. I see some. However, before -anyone- makes a commitment to invest time, money or reputation; they want to see a reasonable chance of success 3-5-10 years down the road. At this moment, I cannot see any opportunities that justify risk. The future is frightening. As entrepreneurs and managers our jobs are -not- to run away from risk. We must mitigate risk vs reward and choose the path(s) that best provide a shot at producing a return that justifies the expense. Breaking even/staying alive is good, but it's not enough.

The future will change. How an in what direction is unknown, by me, at this time. I cannot make a reasonable forecast and discuss it with others... Are the changes permanent-?

What affect will regulations have on the cost of supplies, transportation, funding, employees, taxes-? If I know the costs, I can compute the necessary price. Is the public ready to pay -that- amount so that my products/services will provide the return I need to repay lenders, trade creditors, investors for what they have put at risk-? will my competitors allow the price in their marketplace-? How will they respond-? Yes, unlike the governments, colleges, NGO's and other parasites; private enterprise has competition. We must serve the customer a good value for a fair price. We do not re-distribute the profits from the efforts of others. I am a bit blinded by the current economic mess.

I am open to suggestions.

Charles II

2011-05-28T18:02:00.003Z

The Earl of Rochester said it best ""Here lies our Sovereign Lord, the King whose word no man relies on: He never said a foolish thing nor ever did a wise one"."

King of the World seems the best job. So much better than mere President of the United States.

From the above citation; "Obama has always preferred the symbolic authority of the grand utterance to the actual authority of a directed policy—a policy fought for in particulars, carefully sustained, and traceable to his own intentions. The command to kill or capture Osama bin Laden and the attempt to assassinate Anwar al-Awlaki in a drone strike, which closely followed the bin Laden success, are the exceptions that prove the rule: actions of a moment, decided and triggered by the president alone. His new Middle East speech, at the State Department on May 19, was in this sense a return to a favorite genre. "

Americans do not need a king. We do not need to be herded into a mass of bi-partisan compliance. Our native emphasis on the individual as the fount of all government powers is deeply ingrained... Of course, this speaks mainly for and applies mostly to generations soon passing.

Americans are unique among all nations. we can create our own jobs, our own futures, and our own style of both. Calling for us to "come together" is akin to the same herding mythology used by -all- totalitarian governments. Leave us alone.

We are not children. Explain things, reasons for an action.

DO NOT BEND TO PERSONAL DESTRUCTION, treat us as you would another grown-up. -WHY- is this proposed action important-?

If you want my vote, tell me why -you- can do what you promise. Tell me where/when you have done something before. Show me more than a pretty face, a pleasant manner and vague words with unknown meaning... America does not need another President-as-Celebrity or even President-as-talk-show-host. Leave those shallow people to TV and deal in facts.

AMERICA IS BROKE. UNLESS WE CHANGE OUR SPENDING HABITS QUICKLY, THINGS WILL ONLY GET WORSE...

Can we change-? Will we change-? Who has a plan-and- the backbone to weather these adult changes of direction-? Do we see anyone like that-? Is there anyone who can deal in details-?

Is it really that much easier to see the personality and ignore the danger-? Fix these serious problems and then we will go back to eating our Lotus Blossoms...

Do we dare demand our politicians act as adults and treat us as such-? That would be a huge change in our cultural acceptance of the Big Nanny who takes care of us and everything else in our lives. We have become domesticated and are now herded like animals for slaughter.

The boomer generation is retiring quickly. This generation is unique in history. We are the only generation that is larger than -both- the one that preceded and the one that follows, combined. We will be a huge burden on the entitlement system. We will sell our houses and free our capital to pay for living expenses as we head into our dotage. That means housing prices will soon be falling and staying low. Yes, a few will own more than one home. Not many. we are in danger of many more not having a home at all. and little/no way to pay property taxes, maintenance, repairs and monthly running costs... It is going to get ugly...and unless our "fearless leaders"http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif act like adults; it will get worse.

Funny/Ironic how every politician says "Vote for me. I'm a leader" then gets to the legislature and becomes a sheep following when the Judas Goat of their party walks past.

Enough lies. Enough fasle directions. Enough silly numbers that are selected to scare and mislead... be an adult and speak the truth as one adult to another. Fire the consultants. Be yourself. Who knows-? You might win simply by speaking the truth. There is no free lunch, Social security or health insurance. Everything has a cost. Explain how you would deal with it.

THAT would be a huge and pleasant change.

Where Are The Grown-Ups-?

2011-05-19T21:14:00.002Z

The speech-a-day Presidency is wearing too thin. No new ideas, no new plans and we can't believe what he says. Saying and Doing are two different things. In this person they are two very different planetary orbits. What Will He Do Next-? I don't think even he knows.

He is poll and focus group driven.

We seem to have a new crop of the cautious fingers-to-wind-testers running as -THE- GOP candidate. I thought leaders -led-. Usually from the front. I thought they articulated 1) the problem and b) their solution and c) started marching in that direction. So far, nobody is for anything. They are against Obama and the present course.

That is not good enough.

We need people (some one would do) .

Being against something is fine. -IF- you can define it and state the flaws.

Then offer a solution.

Merely being against it is not enough. Your reasons for disliking it may not be mine or vice versa. Why you oppose something will let me understand what/how you will act to fix it. I may not like your methods or solution.

We need to stop listening to politicians who speak in such nebulous terms that whatever they said, we can agree with-even if we cannot repeat it or explain it. Speak plainly.

I don't want a litany of what's wrong with the other guy. How about we start from the proposition "He's good. I'm better. Here's why;" -? Let's be for something. Let's be for doing better, getting things right, striving for a better goal. What is the goal-? How will we get there-?

The present abuse of each other and wishy-washy vaporous speech is old. We've bought too many fools with results that surprise and embarrass us. Stop Spinning everything...

We, the adults, must demand better answers and more intelligent perspective from those who would be our leaders.

Let's start by asking harder questions. Every one of them have writers, coaches, trainers, make-up and hair stylists... We need-want-hunger for some real adult answers.

WHO ARE YOU-?
Where have you been-? what have you done-? Why do you think your way is the best way-?

WHAT CAN YOU DO FOR ME AND AMERICA-?
What, in detail, is your plan-?

HOW MUCH WILL IT COST-?
Nothing is free. So, how much-?

WHO WILL PAY FOR IT-?
The Evil Rich-? everyone-? Cuts in programs-? Where will you cut-?

We know things will cost. We know changes are not free. Not everyone will be happy.
However, things are bad and quickly getting worse. what will -you- do-?

Or is it just me-?

Recovery-? What Recovery-?

2011-05-03T17:10:00.003Z

I notice the usual wise people are saying we are having a recovery.

Where is it-? I look around and do not see any signs of a recovery.

Unemployment-?
The numbers of -NEW- filings each week is down. BUT, the numbers of unemployed is fudged. They only count those receiving unemployment checks. Those out of work for lengthy period beyond the compensation period are not counted. Student graduates, but high school and college, are not counted. IOW we're being fudged, fiddled, diddled.

Inflation-?
Low because we don't count food prices or transportation, heating, electricity prices in our calculations. When it costs more to feed the family, drive the car, heat/cool the house...then it's inflation.

Stock Market is back up-?
Lessee, first we get the Chinese to raise the value of their currency. This means more people/countries shift away from US dollars to buy Chinese goods. Things priced in US dollars
cost more dollars but the dollar alone, buys less. US buyers of Chinese good must pay more.

Gold, Silver, Oil, Grains, Coffee all heading for record prices. Nobody wants US dollars when other currencies are worth more. BUT it also means that the US dollar is cheap compared to others. This makes not only our products less expensive but also our stocks, land, buildings and even companies. Is the stock market up because US investors are buying value -or- because overseas investors are finding safe haven and good bargains-?

US Dollar Stable-?
The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates low meaning no savings, except for security of institutions. Low interest is supposed to stimulate borrowing. Yet, the new regulations and heightened oversight of lending institutions mean that even the most creditworthy are struggling to find loans. The Fed has pumped $600 thousand-millions into the Treasury to flood the market with cash. This was supposed to make it easier for people to buy homes, cars etc. But again, new regulations and new enforcement interpretations mean that lenders do so at their own risk.

Housing prices -may- have bottomed out. Those who can afford em are staying, even if under water (i.e. owe more than underlying present market value). Foreclosures and sales are slow. They estimate we have a 20-month supply. IOW, if we sell at this rate the inventory will be sold in 20 months. Does this mean that no new homes will be built-? Probably only a few. This forecast also -assumes- that NOBODY will list a home for sale for the next 20 months. Really-?

New cars-? OK, the lack of sales is spurring pent-up demand. However, UAW contracts expire soon... will there be a strike-? Or do we go in a circle again-?

Gas prices are up. Yes, and some wise pundits are forecasting $6/gal by end of summer. That is going to curtail a lot of driving and driving vacations. The President says "BUY a new car." What he hasn't said is "Whose money-?" Big SUVs are safer than liddle cars. They burn more gas, but hauling the kids is not a compromise issue for most Americans.

OTOH The President has shut down drilling in the Gulf. Permits are hard to get and all the goo-newer rigs have moved offshore. One went to help Israel discover it's new oil field. another is going o do the deep ocean drilling that Brazil needs done. Cuba has signed leases with China and other countries to explore their deep Gulf oil fields between Cuba and the US. so, instead of the US having American jobs, rigs and companies we can regulate and penalize should there be a spill, we now face sovereign nations who can easily thumb their nose at our claims. I seriously doubt that Cuba, China and others will willingly dump $20 thousand millions into a fund to pay damages.

The EPA won't allow a pipeline to be built to carry the high sulfur oil from Canada to the Gulf refineries that presently process the Venezuelan high sulfur crude. Venezuela sends us 10% of our oil imports.

We are restricting, delaying and regulating the newly discovered oil and natural gas fields. we are doing everything we can, via regulation and litigation, to stop-slow the use of carbon based products. BUT the price spike is blamed solely, exclusively on "speculators". The US has -never- found any speculators behind the rise in pump prices before... Maybe this time...

The EPA is trying to regulate "Carbon" in the atmosphere. Congress has never given them this power. They and the enviro lawyers are trying to get carbon emissions adjudicated before a court rather than having to actually -prove- it is harmful before Congress, the American people or even other regulators. They have done this before in funding studies via grants to NGO's who in-turn sued the EPA and thus increased their mandate. Regulatory power accretes. It never retreats willingly and only in the face of massive political force.

Businesses are being slow to hire. They cut back and saved jobs by voluntariy hourly restrictions by their employees. Only a non-union company can save jobs and avoid harming a community. The unions have shown, almost completely, their unwillingness to adopt flex hours or even reduced hours in order to save jobs. Businesses will increase their hours worked to reward their loyal workforce before they hire strangers.

Businesses are also hesitant due to the uncertain regulatory environment we're facing. The EPA rules may drive up the cost of transportation of all goods. If the public balks at buying new stuff, the trucking companies will be stuck with employees and no work; new trucks with no feight and new loans they cannot service. Yes, I know that the present demand for trucks and drivers is up...but...is it temporary-? are thet putting old equipment back to work or-?

When prices rise, the public hunkers down. The employees are -ALWAYS- the last to see any increase in wages. suppliers must pay more for raw material. Manufacturers must pay more and -hope- their good will not be refused because of the new price. Only when the new prices are firmly entrenched will employees get raises. It is impossible to give a raise then take it back and keep a good employee. we live in an age where "Stuff is cheap and labor expensive" but unfortunately many of us are still making decisions based on "Expensive stuff and cheap labor"... Higher prices for the same goods will face resistance from buyers.

It's not complicated...but it gets that way when we are lied to about; numbers and facts regarding our situation, when we are given spin and not answers, when new regulations are hiden inside bills an proposed regulations to avoid upsetting the public, when nobody knows what to do but keeps talking/spinning the yarn without explaining anything.

Does anyone know what needs to be done and is willing to make the adult decisions-?

Where are the adults-?

10 Thoughts on Trump v. Obama 2012

2011-04-29T00:14:00.004Z

1) No. He has no depth beyond his celebrity. Real estate is not the same as service or manufacturing. He has been to bankruptcy several times. If you cannot make money running a casino- you are not a manager. He has also taken his partners into bankruptcy several times. His style of business is fine for NYC gentlemen. People who know the rules, are aware of the NY & federal laws, and who need to play fair-ish because of their next deal. It won't work against really evil people who are not afraid to use violence or cause deaths on a large scale. He has never faced anyone who has nothing to lose and is willing to burn everything down.

2) "Birther" and Affirmative Action Issues. Side shows attractions. The sizzle and aroma that brings in the crowd. The fresh baked cookies or bread that set the stage and bring the crowd to see/buy something.

3) Trump's appeal...WHY he is gaining traction over Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty, etc... He is an America Is Great advocate. He does not apologize. He does not accept arguments that mistakes are errors of current social policy are fatal character flaws. He proudly and loudly states that America is a good nation. Americans are a good people. Americans are better at guiding our own future than any other nation.

America is the best friend any democracy seeking people will find anywhere. We are there when disasters happen (our military budget pays for this largess-remember the military budget-?) We do not say "You -must- have and American style democracy". We don't really care what for type of democracy you choose, as long as you do it peacefully.

Trump is saying all this (by his actions and boisterous challenges more than words alone) after almost three years of non-stop apologies, withdrawal from confronting evil, and following the hard Left turn to Collectivist-Redistribution path towards insolvency. No country has ever accomplished what Obama proposes without slaughtering 5%-10% of their population. America is not -that- country.

4) Money... Trump's wealth is locked up in assets. He is usually short of the "readies" aka ready cash. He cannot raise enough from other donors to win. He has celebrity because he has time to develop it-for his business i.e. building overly posh, over priced buildings for people with too much money.

5) Trump sets the narative for a strong, fiscal conservative and strong defender of America. If the Republicans say to the social Conservatives "You talk to the states"...The game changes. No more need for federal money, regulations or laws to distract from the mess we're in

6) Obama is a known commodity. He is no longer the perfect blank slate spouting aphorisms that we can interpret to fulfill our fantasies. He is known. He appears bored with the job. He makes it seem beneath him and not really worth his time. He is afraid of a mistake and therefore dithers, delays and delegates waiting to claim victory or blame others. He makes no efforts or commitments

7) Obama's financial machinery won't work this time. The rope-a-dope donations where the internet accepts -any- name as long as the credit card numbers are good. The laws are based on the names. So long as no single named person+address donates over the limit-he's in good shape. The question is whether the Republicans will follow this bit of sophistic legalistic magic or take the high road-? I doubt the F.E.C will ever respond to this hole in the laws. Obama & Democrats are counting on Republicans playing by the spirit of the laws while they play by the tight, legal defintions of each word. ( a nation of lawyers ruling us peasants-?)

8) The $3 billion given to A.C.O.R.N. and all it's newly named groups may not work. The public is aware that false absentee ballots are being applied for, false names are being registered as voters, no photo ID's mean that any person can vote multiple times, that the elderly and enfeebled are having their ballots filled out for them, etc... Will that practice continue-? Do we value our votes or simply not care-? This is a local issue...what are -you- doing about it-?

9) The Unions are busy fighting for their continued existence. Their right to continued extortion of employees and state governments is being challenged in many jurisdictions. Their manpower and money is going in many directions this year before the November 2012 election.
If they lose the "Check-off" they will not be able to have the employers -TAKE- money from the workers paychecks and -GIVE- it to the unions. They must then go hat-in-hand (or baseball bat in hand) to ask for the monthly dues... Not a pretty sight. People tend to thing the money thy earn belongs to them. They will also start asking the famous consumer question "What are you doing to earn my money each month-?"

10) Trump has never taken a ten-year full time commitment to anything. Obama is only committed to his own sense of magnificence and his definition of glory. He was The First. His place is sealed in the history books. Any future (aka The Next) candidates -will- be investigated, known, understood and examined -MUCH- more closely. No more stealth candidates... We learn slowly, but we learn and remember.

Where Are We-?

2011-04-28T18:00:00.004Z

Like that hoary olde joke about the Fugawi tribe... I sense Americans are asking each other "Where Are We-?" and even more importantly "Where Are We Going-?"

I suppose we need t ask "Where Have We Been-?" Lyle Lovett once sang "You've got to look at what you've been thru to see what you've become"... That's us.

We are uncertain. We voted for "Change" but never knew we were signing up for "Fundamental Change to American society"... We got both, in varying degrees. Now we can only "Hope" that we can find ourselves and a way out. We are not like we were. The path we're on has never been done by anyone in the real world. Only academics, enjoying govt funding, have professed the collectivisation and re-distribution of wealth as a sustainable model. Even then, they assume humans are closer to angels than our own selfish, self-interested nature.

The TARP plan was flawed, but we faced a crisis of confidence in our financial institutions. Pres. Bush doubled down and requested the rest of the funds so that Pres. Obama could have flexibilty as needed. Pres. Obama then got the Stimulus Package and added bits of money. My memory-guess is approx $1.4 Trillion. How much has been spent-? We don't know. The rabbit holes got filled with cash. Some 200,000+ new federal employees were hired to monitor where it went.

I'm a simple guy. It seems to me that handing out $1 Million, tax-free to 1,400,000 (one million four hundred thousand) people chosen at random would have done more for the country.

People would have bought a lot of stuff; new cars, houses, furniture, started new businesses, paid down credit cards and so on. Plus No New Federal, State, County or Municipal employees would have been hired. So, our costs into the future would have been lower. The strings attached ar just beginning to be felt. They now hurt the states who took the poisoned money.

I'm tired and confused by all the funny numbers being batted around. I'm one of those who wants to know what's behind the numbers and what are the assumptions. we're not getting the TRUTH. Every set of numbers has a different source of actuals and different set of assumptions about the future. I've always believed that Revenue Forecasts are Promises. Expense Projections are Commitments. The revenue numbers are too rosy. The expense projections are short on details.

We owe money. We have NO way to pay it back. In business, that would be cause for great alarm. When a company files bankruptcy and you asked the owners/managers "What Happened-?" almost invariably they say "We Ran Out Of Time". Unless we recognize our problems; we will run out of time. when a person, business or country is stretched this thin, they lack any flexibility to act should an emergency arise.

Over 47% of US citizens pay no taxes.
Only 2% of those who do pay taxes pay over 56% of all our bills.
Over 50% of all of us, receive some type of check from the government.

We don't have a sustainable business model...
IOW, We are in deep _______ and know no way out of this mess.

We even refuse to believe we're in trouble.

So, should those who worry stock the bomb shelter and hunker down while we away the inevitable-? If we wait for those who say "Nope, No Problems" now to say "Oh S---!" won't it cost us a heck of a lot more-?

No business deserves to stay in business longer than it's value to its customers.

No country lasts forever.

What do we choose for our future-?

I'm thinking it's time for some more change. Hope alone is not gonna get us out of this mess.

Marxism Fails
You can't re-distribute what hasn't been collected because there is none to collect.

So Many Words

2011-04-15T14:26:00.002Z

We are drowning in a sea of words. TV is radio with pictures. we watch people tallk and get into/out of situations with words. we watch politicians use an endless flood of words. Nobody knows what they said. They are skilled and feeding tidbits to -your- prejudices. This allows them to be for/against any issue at any given time. What they said was ,exactly, what you thought they said. Did they mean it-? Who knows-? I doubt even they know what they said and what they really meant.

When I first went to Washington, I was told "Politics is a conversation that never ends." It's true. They speak about endings, the future, changes and lots of hopeful things. They never set a date when THIS if finished and THAT can begin. Both keep being issues forever.

Straw-man argument or style or rhetoric is when you say "Some have said" or "We all know that this country is not like THAT". This fits your prejudices. There is never any person who actually said it to them or even proposed it. BUT it fits the bias that "Well, somebody could have said it/done it/meant it." Nobody ever pins down the -WHO- of it.

If all relationships ar based on trust; how can we trust anyone who never stands still. a person who keeps talking-? Anyone who talks more and faster when they think you may be catching on is -UNTRUSTWORTHY-. iF YOU CAN'T TRUST SOMEONE, -WHY- Are you granting them any more of your time, energy, confidence, faith, hope or money-?

I remember when a handshake meant something. A man was a man because he kept his word. Those who told lies, said anything at any time were either children or liars and usually a thief.

The world has changed. People are different. Yet, we still need to trust each other to have any society or value in our lives.

I live by the modified version of Caesar's Wife.s Virtue that "Not only must I appear to be trust worthy, I must BE trustworthy"

It places the burden on me and all I meet to be trustworthy. Then we can look hard at whether we think the other's definition of "trustworthy" is similar and just how different are we...

I sometimes wish that more felt this way. Unfortunately, we must have some nasty, ugly, -very public- betrayals and transgressions before the lesson is learned. Society functions best on a 'by exception' basis. we all hold similar values, except here and there or even this person. If we're not similar in our values we simply have no basis for trusting each other. Do we-?

Scared of the Future-?

2011-04-12T19:17:00.002Z

I ran across another post by John Hawkins noting what happens to you and me when America goes broke.

I'd rather not believe that it's all a scare tactic. Well, I would, but too many years of watching my pennies and letting the dollars follow plus examining company financials to see how they are dealing with their present and future lead me to believe that either we have some leaders with some backbone or we continue to follow the fools who expect "The-Rich" to pay for everything.

we're in trouble and nobody seems to want to pay attention. It's almost like the pop quizes in school when the-cool-kids hadn't done their homework... "Nobody Told Me There Would Be Math" cries and whimpers...only this is not an exam. This is reality.

We are losing $200Billion ( i.e. $200,000 millions) every month. The interest on our debt (notice how nobody speaks about the interest) is another $200 Billion. Japan has been hurt and will not be in a position to buy our paper promises when the ones they hold run their course. Britain is doing all it can to handle it's solutions and problems. Canada seems to have avided the issues. However, we're refusing to allow a pipeline to be built that would move Canadian crude to the Gulf for processing. we continue to buy 10% of our oil fro Venezuela. Chavez hasn't shown much love to us. we haven't shown much towards Canada. (NOTE: Bot sources of crude are extra specially heavy in sulfur and need special refineries. Iran has a similar problem.)

That leaves China who hold more than $1 Trillion in our paper promises. (A trillion = $1 million million)

We are stretched financially and militarily. We have Iraq and Afghanistan plus the build-up of the Orwellian named Homeland Security. we have just gotten entangled in something in Libya. Nobody knows what we're doing or why we're doing it.

Being stretched removes our flexibility and ability to respond. Should we have another Katrina or SF earthquake we'd be hurting. The American people would pull together -but- would it be seen as simply -another- crisis not to waste for political advantage-?

We don't trust our Political leaders. It seems that -everything- has become political. will we ever be able to go back to sleep and simply pursue our lives and enjoy our families-?

I wish I had a clue. Right Now; I don't know. When I speak with other business folks; they don't know either. The political landscape is ugly, unfamiliar, and filled with so many "Useful Idiots" in Lenin's famous term. IOW, people who have lots of outrage and will tur out to provoke and attract headlines ...but who have no real idea why they are there or the consequences of their actions.

OTOH Donald Trump is FAR more interesting than Charlie Sheen. whatever he does it is interesting and beats seeing the usual dwarfs playing it safe... I keep hoping/expecting a -real- candidate. My choices/secret hopes are Jim Rogers of Cypress Semiconductor and/or David Petraeus.

I think the good general has -earned- his seat as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It seems that The "Good" General and politician who has never fired or seen a shot fired in anger will assume the role. Petraeus seems destined for Head of the CIA or maybe Head of NATO.... What an insult-! Musical chairs will move the head of the CIA to run the defense Department...and I may be the only one who remembers Leon Pineta as the bag man who retired ahead of an investigation... Guess he showed -them-

Noodling in the dark... Blogging on the internet.... random thoughts running out my fingers.

Aggregators, Adults And B.S.er's

2011-04-12T15:59:00.002Z

I usually read Instapundit and Lucianne for my quick take on the news of the day. Well, at least for my political and social commentary news. Drudge holds the lead for the hard news of actual events.

Instapundit links to John Hawkins interview with Dr. Thomas Sowell. The occassion is the publishing of his latest book; Economic Fads and Fallacies second Edition. as usual, Dr. Sowell cuts thru the crapola. He reports that We Are Broke and provides details...

I have enjoyed reading his works for over 20 years. He is good, incisive and no nonsense...
It's hard to argue with his conclusions since he shows how he arrived. Listening to the children who march, protest, lobby and inhabit most of our education and political establishments is tiring. He is an adult who speaks to adults.

I have ordered my copy. Have you-?

2011-04-11T19:11:00.002Z

So, Now I read on-average, a book a week. Sometimes more. Sometimes less. Amazon has a phenomenal number of good books, used, for sale. My tastes run from paleo-archeology , Roman history, Economics, Politics of the past, American history, Chinese history, Silk Road and India. Why-? Because good books make reference to other people-other times-other places. Nothing happens alone and singular.

Amazon and www.radioparadise.com have spurred a renewal my interests in music. Watching the whole industry evolve and adapt to the internet is educational. The big giants have had to scramble. Their music has become a commodity and following the laws of economics "Markets reward the low-cost provider" Buying used CDs allows me to experiment. I can risk some small dollars on an unknown but intriguing artist.

The internet continues to be a disruptive force, mainly for good. Some bad things happen. However, the world is not a safe kindergarten where the adults protect and assure comfort should anything go wrong. Americans, especially the Gen X, Gen Y and Gen z are a mix of brilliance at technology and using the internet. They are also incredibly naive about scams, falsehoods and betrayals of confidence. They get irrationally upset at any slight. IOW, they act much like the spoiled children they are. Such behavior is tolerable in a small child, unpleasant in an adolescent and wrong in an adult. The world is not a completely safe and nurturing place. Bad things happen to good people as often as good things happen to bad people.

Watching the antics of our "leaders" on TV is funny. They are very risk-adverse. They run for office promising to Lead. They claim that they are LEADERS and know the right thing to do. Once elected, too-often, they become sheep. They wait and wait for the "Judas Goat" (look-it-up) to come and show them the path out of the thicket. They ignore their campaign promises. They become petty, arrogant and officious when challenged....

The 2010 election brought forth a new crop -who, so far- seem ready to honor their promises and do what is best for the country. For too long we have had politicians who simply used the public purse to reward special interests. Nobody was paying attention. Polls continually showed that the electorate disliked Congress as a whole and even the President. But they loved -their- Congressperson...even when they had no idea what they did or even if they showed up. For many years my Congressman Tom Lantos, held the dubious award of being "The Most Absent Man In Congress". He had a safe seat. He voted the union line. They showed up before the elections to provide manpower for phones and driving the voters to the polls. They walked the neighborhoods and handed out signs and leaflets. ... The Republicans always had some token opposition. Most never polled more than 50,000 votes. But Lantos won in a slow walk. The entire country grew accustomed to such relationships.

Now we are broke. I studied business company's that filed bankruptcy as well as those who were successful. I interviewed the leaders of the failures and read their filings and interviews. Consistently, they said "we ran out of time." watching the fight over our national debt, it seems one side says "Quick-! we must change our ways" The other side says "No. Go slow. There is plenty of time. We don't want to upset everyone." what do out debtors say-? How much time will they give us-? will they buy our bonds as we pay off the old and borrow anew-?

Increasingly, people are seeing a round of inflation as the only way to pay off this mountain of debt. Devalued dollars will hammer lenders and reward those holding assets. Will the US do it-?
will This President and This Chief of the Federal Reserve use cheapened money to harm those who gave us their trust-? watching the rise in commodity prices, oil, gold, silver, copper, grains etc. The answer seems to be a resounding "YES-!"

Inflation will hit the wage earner hardest. The wage earner cannot raise the price of their services as fast as commodities rise. Their employers cannot raise their wages until/unless the public accepts the new pricing. Hard Times seem just-around-the-corner.

Good managers, good entrepreneurs anticipate the worst, hope for the best, and plan for the most-likely. Right now, I;m glad I have no employees or customers looking to me for answers or a plan. I have no clue how ths will play out.

The U.S.A. has never been in -this- position before. We have a huge government that costs more every day in wages, regulations, rules and infrastructure. Businesses cannot plan because they don't know what regulations will be coming. The new Congress has proposed a law that would require a vote by both houses of Congress before any rule with an impact over $100 million is enacted. It is a good idea. However, political appointees who are True-Believers will quickly write regulations that impact the nation in $90 million increments. Then they will flow like the cars on a freight train crossing the desert, one-after-another is quick succession.

we are n a mess and no clear path seems available. The large companies are now deemed Too-Big-To-Fail. This means that they are both a bulwark against government -and- a captive pawn of big government. Our future lies with the small and mid-sized companies. we need a more fertile ground for entrepreneurs to take The Risk of ther wealth and good name to fill a need with new products or services.

Rules and regulations cripple small businesses. It diverts scarce capital, people and management attention to comply. The government cannot do away with the oldest maxim in the marketplace; "Caveat Emptor". More rules, laws, regulations, and enforcers will not protect the fool and his money from a "Great Deal"... All they do is confuse and hinder the growth of skepticism.

All business relationships are ased on trust. Trust is earned slowly and destroyed quickly.
Good business managers know that they, like Caesars wife, must not only be beyond reproach but they must appear beyond reproach at all times. This applies to all levels of the company. Good Will is earned slowly and is worth a lot, especially in times of uncertainty and adversity.

World Slows Down

2011-04-10T20:17:00.003Z

Since 2008 my world has slowed dramatically. The economy started backing off in '07. Many of the HNW (High Net Worth) people I was meeting to raise capital saw a cold wind coming from Obama-land and started pulling back on their risk tolerance. They expected huge tax increases as he was promising them. They also expected a landslide of new regulations and enforcement.

Nobody saw the Financial accounting standards Board changing the rules and destroying the balance sheets of highly regulated financial institutions. The FASB enacted their Mark-to-Market rule in November '07. Bear-Stearns hit the wall in January. When the FASB finally rolled back the rule in April '09 the economy recovered. They're now talking about re-enacting it again. Personal observation is that nothing will happen for a decade. That change wiped out the value of performing loans that were not in doubt or even due for 10-20 years. The bundled mortgages had a mixture of good and dubious mortgages. The good ones were paying a low rate and the dubious a higher rate. when the rule hit nobody knew what was a good bundle or a bad one. That made it impossible to sell without unbundling. However, the holder didn't have the authority to act.

The result of all the chaos and uncertainty loans were stopped-mostly. Even the most credit worthy were forced to pay high rates. The alternative was a pay-off or default. The system worked because people built equity as the assets appreciated and the debt was reduced. Eventually one would have a paid loan, a free asset that had appreciated above the original purchase price. This is the secret of most family homes and real estate investment wealth.

We need to grow. Funding evaporated for acquisitions. Our equipment was old and we had held off replacing it expecting to merge the business into a new and larger entity. With no funding available for acquisition, we began seeking funding for replacement equipment. Despite the popular Marxist myth, no responsible owner ever compromises safety for profit. Lacking any source -at a reasonable rate- we closed the doors and went home. Only an idiot/fool/desperate person takes a loan at 37.5%... Course, the lenders take a fixed and floating on everything the company and owners own... They know what is happening. It hurt to walk away but the alternative was too ugly.

The economy has not returned. The surge in stock prices shows mostly a draw-down of inventory and extension of existing equipment and work hours for those still employed. The EPA has a new raft of rules and regulations that will soon be enacted. Mostly these will raise the cost of -ll- energy and its usage. The new financial regulations haven't been written, but nobody expects the small and mid-sized to benefit from the weight. Healthcare is a mountain of cost with as yet unknown regulations.

The country is broke. Bush gave a stimulus to keep Nancy happy. Then the TARP bailout. Then the Obama use of TARP to take over the auto industry and pay-off the unions. Then we had the $1 trillion stimulus. Supposedly for "shovel-ready" work. However, there is no such thing where govt money is concerned. Every penny must be watched, accounted for, bid for, granted and then measured as it is spent. The govt keeps adding people. Course, most of these jobs will become SEIU union workers so, It's OK.

I've grown cynical and disillusioned.

I was taking the whole political sphere WAYTOO seriously.

I stepped back.

Re-discovered the stack of books that I had been meaning to read.
Re-discovered music that I had been to busy to hear.

I think it's been good for me.

What next-? I'm not sure.

But that's what being human is all about. Isn't it-?

Don't we all keep coming back to see what happens next-?

Still Here

2010-06-04T21:55:00.002Z

I have stepped away from politics as a topic. It is crowded and filled with people who have a fire and passion I lack... I have been reading some great books.
I have been listening to www.RadioParadise and they have introduce me to new music, new musicians and expanded my horizons.

I have been puzzling over my life's story. what did I do-? where did I go-? What was right-? Where did I "foot-fault" and make mistakes. what are the forces that influenced my decisions, my directions and led me to this point in my life. I heard a wise man say "Everything you have ever done, in your entire life, has led you to this point." I think he is right... and it makes the next moves a continuation of that same process.

I realize that this is a public forum. It can be read and commented upon by any passing stranger or friend. So, I need to be circumspect about what I post... Yeah, like you and most of my generation I am a private person. What is done in public i for public consumption and the chips will fall where they may... But some things do not need the eyes and minds of bored people milling over them... If you disagree; start your own blog and spill your guts...

I know that this is a small point of light among millions (billions-?) of blogs hung out in cyberspace... But like Earth in a universe of stars and planets... This is my space and I am protective...

What do you write about-? what would you like to discuss-? Or shall I simply babble away and enjoy this low cost, free form psycho therapy while you peer in-?

A conversation is always the best way to show my brilliance... But in lieu of that, I'll just ramble where my thoughts will take me.... You're welcom to come and kibbutz...

What is a Blog?

2010-03-12T18:21:00.003Z

I stepped back from the post-election insanity. I walked away and calmed down, sorta.

We didn't have anyone worthy of the job running in the final stretch. The economy was headed off a cliff and it was time to play politics vs doing something serious.

The Mark-to-market requirement was dumped in April and surprise the crisis slowed dramatically. Mark-to-market for regulated financial institutions is a recipe for disaster. Once again we have been taught that lesson... The hard way.

Fannie and Freddie have been proved to be what everybody thought they were; government agencies with the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government behind them. Now that they have been bailed out and are floating under the radar... what should be done with em-? Looks like they will wind up restructuring over a trillion dollars in mortgages and dumping additional losses onto the Treasury.

Politics trumps economics. Politics trumps science. Politics trumps Hollywood. And all we get are more people playing politician as either a professional or an amatuer... My TV seems to be saying "It's easy. Any fool can do it. We'll report and make money from the fools"... And they do... hour after hour, night after night. Even the professional politicians, you know, Our Natural Masters, are caught up in being found the fool...

With it easy and everybody doing it... what purpose should -THIS- blog serve... ?

1) Should I ramble along and join the herd, hoping that my brilliance and wit will bring me an audience-?

2) Should I turn inward and mine my soul and history to try and explain mysef to myself and any passers by-?

3) Should I return to my spade and pick to turn a dollar examining the ins and outs of basic business in general and transportation in specific-?

4) Should I write poetry-? Knowing full well that poets like bloggers exist mainly as producers and not consumers... Yes, many write, few write well. Many read but mostly the writ which ha been approved, sanctioned and blessed by a critical voice....

5) Should I simply pop in and ramble away, occasionally giving voice to my rants as events warrant-? I wouldn't visit a site that was only infrequently posted no matter how brilliant and sophisticated I found the work... Why would you-?

Drop a comment and vote or not... I'll be back and slowly find my voice and topics... or you can suggest some...

Thanks for visiting...

"Whatever It Takes"

2008-11-17T12:00:00.000Z

"Yes We Can." or so the saying goes. Looks more like wishful thinking leading to changes we did not anticipate. Is this an example of The Law of Unintended Consequences or will we find other/better examples ahead-?

From yesterday's Bloomberg:

The government will do ``whatever it takes'' to revive the economy, Obama said. That means ``we shouldn't worry about the deficit next year or even the year after,'' he said, adding that in the short term, ``the most important thing is that we avoid a deepening recession.''

Why do I not expect to see 1) cutting taxes to relieve the taxpayer or to raise revenues 2) reducing the size or scope of government to use scarce tax money more wisely to be on the list of things to try early.

Ignore the deficit-?
When Congress just added $5 thousand billion in new debt to the government balance sheet, PLUS tossed $300 billion in air-dropped stimulus, PLUS $700 billion in Financial Rescue, PLUS are planning an additional (pick-a-number) $300 billion, $500, billion, $600 billion in new air drop stimulus PLUS another unknown number in "infrastructure and unemployment befit extensions. (We haven't gotten to the expanded health and welfare freebies that bought the election)

Where does all the new money come from-? Selling U.S. Govt Bonds-? To foreign buyers-? Who really thinks we will -NOT- devalue the dollar to repay the fixed term debt with inflated greenbacks... Will Congress be able to avoid telling businesses how to run their businesses-? They are already demanding that banks loan good money to get the economy rolling. Don't they know how we got in this mess and why it's dragging along-? How can anyone loan against an asset when you don't know what the asset will be worth in 3-6-12 months-?

PLUS GM, FORD, CHRYSLER and their UNIONS need LIFESUPPORT for next two years... They have no way to find profits and pay back-EVER. The UAW is growing older and at $71.++/hr they are not competitive. PLUS the UAW retirees may get screwed and turn to the Pension Benefit Guarantee Funds for salvation... But find Lehman, GE and others ahead of them in line. (meaning yet-more govt money needed to bailout retirees) The NYTimes has already reduced its medical benefits to retirees. There will be many more companies dumping retiree obligations onto the government. Cleaning up balance sheets is going to be difficult and painful. No loans will flow to companies with an ugly Balance Sheet.

The Democrats cannot let the United Auto Workers suffer. I guess it means we all will share the pain of bad contracts and Congressional meddling for two to five years before they get consolidated and largely liquidated. Penn Central Auto Makers-? AmAuto Manufacturers-?
Didn't we see this with the railroads-? How successful was that-?

PLUS we still have a shooting war in Iraq and Afghanistan... And a still active and aggressive Islam-o-Terrorist enemy.
PLUS Mexico still has a shooting war against Narco-Terrorists
PLUS Venezuela is funding revolution in Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua
PLUS Russia and China are heading to Cuba to test the Monroe Doctrine.
PLUS ongoing Pentagon commitments for new toys, replacement of old equipment, expanded size of the forces to avoid burn-out from combat tours.
All of which means shrinking the military ain't gonna happen, unless we want embolden all our enemies at one time. Sorry, Barney.

Tightening the belt, shrinking personal debt and consumer demand for one-to-two years is probably not gonna be considered at all... Not politically popular... Until we find a bottom price on assets, inventories, capacity and can release the cash that America is holding- Nothing Moves...

I expect the next air drop stimulus to go towards home and small holiday bills. Credit card bills will become the next discretionary payable if they haven't already. Home Mortgage possibly already is. All the talk of mortgage renegotiation is making even those with ability wonder if they are The Fool to keep paying when the Mortgage Holder is willing to reduce-reset-renegotiate... (Is this a Moral Hazard-?)

I guess this is one way to have Gen X, Gen Y, Gen Z, all learn about economics, responsibility, frugality and work... Good thing us Boomers were inoculated early and avoided those lessons... "We" never learned em so we couldn't teach them to anyone, or so it seems many of these recent days.

"Hope" and "Change" are words into which we can toss our aspirations. "Work", "Responsibility" and "Frugality" are old fashioned ideas we will rediscover before we finish and return to the "Bush-Prosperity-Years". We will be changed but not in the way we anticipated when 2008 began. We will still have "Hope" for Americans take Hope add it to Work and Responsibility to create a better future for all of us. This is what we do. This is who we are. No people or nation does it better.

I wish our New President the best. His success (or failure) is deeply tied to that of the entire nation. His Party affiliates on The Hill may need to be reminded early that he is The President, separate but equal to all of them combined.

How's your Monday going-? Obviously, I'm ranting away trying to make sense of my newspapers and emails...

Election Day

2008-11-04T20:36:00.000Z

"There is much to be said for not saying much."
-Frank Tyger

Today is the day we all get to vote. After almost two years we have hashed the candidates pretty finely. We have endured leaks, gaffs, spin-sound bites, spin and more spin.

By the end of the week we may know who will be our Fearless Leader. I say "end of the week" because I suspect there is enough voter fraud to slow things down and cloud the outcome. I hope I am wrong. I feel I am right.

I think that either candidate will only serve one term. McCain due to age. Obama due to his difficulty in -ACTUALLY- having to accomplish something. Pelosi and Reid will ram thru lots of stuff without consideration of the other 49% of Americans. When these actions fail, they will blame Obama and walk away like the Siamese cats leaving the fish bowl in "Lady and the Tramp"... The cats song applies to them as well.

In any event, we will still be one America. We will have tens of thousands who will do what they believe best for America at the sacrifice of their own comfort. We will also have a few thousand who will do what ever they can to advance their own comfort and ease. They will be assured that "someone else" will clean up the mess... They have lived this way all their life.

I am glad that the contest too so long. It winnowed out some very likely looking candidates who seemed to have the whole game in a suitcase and were waiting for the limo to sweep them to their coronation.

We will have a chance to vote our concerns, pleasures and outrage in two years. 435 Members of Congress and 33 Senators will be up for re-election...

The wisdom of our Founding Fathers is amazing. Their understanding of human weakness and passions was clear and unfazed by any fantasies of human nobility. We are not angels with a few frail and weak among us. We are cowards, lusting for more and willing to do any act for our own success...with a very few angels in our midst.

Tonight, when its all over. Hoist a tall glass of something strong and propose a toast to "America, Long may our banner waive. Long may our people be better than our politicians"... I will... The American people are better than any that we have every elected... We may deserve better. But we keep voting our wishes and hopes instead of our practical demands.

Debate

2008-09-27T00:12:00.000Z

I'm burned out on politics and politicians. The Media have made it very clear that they control the message. That message is "Obama wins"

I will resume my Talk-Back Response to the debate when the transcripts are available... I realize I will lose the nuance of tone, inflection and body language. I don't think that matters as the media will tell us what we saw and why it's important.

The fools on the Hill see the sun going down and the eyes in their head see the sun spinning round... round, round, round... the conversation never stops and never reaches a point.

What is absolutely amazing is the paucity of knowledge about how our financial institutions work. We lack the ability to analyze the problem, understand the solution or see the opportunity this presents for everyone. We are no longer a nation of pioneers, risk takers or even aggressive business people. We have become a nation of wage slaves and shopkeepers. No wonder we flock o politicians who promise us free lunch, free medical care, free housing, free cars...all without risk or worry.

The Wall Street Journal has done an excellent job of describing the problems, its background, consequences and ramifications of the proposed solution. Please read the editorials, opinions and columns for this past week.

Or write me and I'll send you the links. Its all free now. www.opinionjournal.com has been free for some time.

This is the greatest opportunity to solve the Social Security problem, Medicare/Medicaid problem without raising taxes ever to come our way. Our fearless leaders are hiding under the bed and wishing they could vote "present". Others are larding up the plan to 102 pages of crap. i.e. 20% of all returns to be paid to ACORN. That's paying the community organizers more than the small town mayors. That could be as much as $440 Billion in taxpayer money going to a tax exempt organization that registers the dead, the never-living, and mythological citizens to vote for Barack Obama.

Have a good weekend. Watch little TV. Wait til Monday to see which way your stocks go. Only 40 days til election... One would think it was important the way the dirty tricks are being organized and pulled.

Read a good book-!

This is Serious Folks

2008-09-25T16:59:00.000Z

Where are the adults-? Why is everyone in the media so ignorant-? Why are our thought leaders so unwise in the ways of finance, Wall Street, the world-? This ain't a TV show or an Oliver Stone movie. There are no "bad" guys... There seem to be a few good guys trying to get in insane and addicted to steer away from the iceberg... I am holding my breath, saying my prayers, hoping for the best and preparing for the worst... What are you doing-?

Watching the hotel TV and listening to idiots babble... I thought several things.... and I'd like to share.

1) Most people have no idea how capital is formed and wealth created. Most people get a paycheck and spend most, save some then buy house, car and save for college. Some get retirement plans pushed at work and take em cause they're free... Outside of paycheck and balancing the checkbook, they are lost

2) Most TV folks cannot do math. They cannot calculate simple interest. They cannot make a budget and know whether they will be able to afford a payment.

3) Our leaders have no clue. Our Senators and Congrespeople are simple fools. They are slightly less able than your average drunk. They get paid to drink but lack the skills of a good manipulative hustler...

4) They do not understand the problem. They do not understand the proposed solution. They just "want it fixed, now" and then they want to blame Bush and/or the rich...

This is a GREAT opportunity for every teacher in America to teach simple business math. Operating statement (and budget) and Balance Sheet... No need for any explanations of derivatives, Collateralized debt instruments or anything suave... Just basic family and business math...

Instead we'll get a bunch of demagoguing and populist rabble rousing...

Watching the credit markets seize up during the course of the year has been an education for me. I suspected some troubles in housing/mortage industry because of the articles in the WSJ and Forbes... I have had several deals crater as lenders got cold feet and ramped up their nervousness rate. I was just quoted an outrageous rate to lease equipment... We walk away when the deal gets stupid. My partner and I have some strict guidelines and walk away when the other party gets foolish.... I saw a big shift in investor confidence when Obama and Democrats Pelosi and Reid sarted coming against the rich... I think we'll have some great investment opportunities over the next 12 months... If you're gonna play; Have a chat with yourself first. High rewards come from high risk. Low risks bring low-moderate rewards...

Just remember when you see the idiots on TV saying we need higher taxes and we need to get the top 1%... To raise revenue, you cut taxes. Kennedy did it, Reagan did it, Clinton did it(well, he didn't but Republicans did and gave him credit) and Bush did it... If they are serious about needing more money to pay bailout, debt etc... cutting taxes raises money....

As Obama told Gibson "Raising taxes is a question of fairness"... It's not about raising cash or paying bills...

Whatever the Politicians do, the market will take it into account and react accordingly. I trust the markets more than I trust Congress to do the right thing in the long run...

I was speaking with someone this morning about the seriousness of it all...and they were quoting TV, newspaper editorials and wondering where "their" personal bailout is...

People doan geddit...

This is not a crisis of bad loans. There are some bad loans mixed in with a bunch of good loans -AND- an accounting rule (post-ENRON inspired FAS 157 lookit up) that says you mark -ALL- assets to market... There are very very few people who buy bundled mortgages. A note representing 1,000 mortgages is not gonna be held by a whole bunch of people... When ONE holder needs cash and sells their note at a firesale-all notes of this thinly traded type must be marked down to firesale prices... This causes some institutions to need much more equity or capital or cash to keep their ratios inline with regulatory authority... creating a cascade affect on all such holders of these instruments... The vast majority (95%) of mortgages are still being serviced every month...

The original plan was for the Feds to buy these illiquid notes and hold tle maturity... These notes represent some value. Right now, nobody knows what they are because they have been written down so hard. Merrill sold itself for $.22 on the dollar because it couldn't see itself raising the extra capital to meet required ratios... The notes are good, but the rules say not... What would you pay for one-?
If you bought a bundle of 1,000 mortgages for $.22 on the dollar and held them to maturity you'd get rich. If 5% (present mortgage foreclosure rate) went bad you'd still have the underlying asset. Would that asset have dropped 78% in value-? You'd still have something worth more than you paid for it. Even at $.50 on the dollar you'd probably make some very good money on the returns...

The issue of sub-Prime notes means first that the home owner is less than good creditworthy... That means they are paying a premium interest rate plus higher fees to get the note to begin with. Many are Adjustable Rate Mortgages that adjust when interest rates go up... Many-many-many buyers thought they would 1) re-finance at higher valuation, 2) sell at higher valuation 3) re-finance to fixed note. Many-many-many home buyers in Bay Area and elsewhere saw low risk-high reward for getting into many such homes and renting them out. Their good credit and renters payments would build equity forever... However, prices quit rising. Rates went up. Re-financing was not an option... That forced many to walk away and caused many renters to get pushed out of homes they where they had never missed a payment...

Freddy and Fannie bought these sub-Prime notes, bundled them, sold em to Wall Street. Took the money and bought more mortgages. Along the way they paid $15-$16M in donations and lobbying to Congress. They also paid their head guys nearly $100M in bonuses and minor flunkies prorated amounts from the top banana... They also had sloppy accounting. If Freddy and Fannie were a truly Public company their top bananas would be in jail... but because they paid protection they got to keep their bonuses...

The problem with all this is that because the financial institutions are holding "bad" paper... They are not making any more loans. They are raising rates and fees and hoarding cash everywhere they can... The affect is all the small institutions are also bumping up their fees and interest rates... Interest rates have jumped three times over what they were a few months ago. Even Ford is forced to pay 7.5% for its prime money...

People saw the institutions seizing up and started to pull money from their Money Market accounts... There was a run on money market funds starting last week. If it had gone unchecked... we would have toppled the world. You cannot pull $1.7 trillion out and put it under the mattress without bad things happening... Money Market funds are not insured-at present- under the bailout they will be.... That should stop the run... BUT since the banks are paying so little on CDs and savings and have limit of $100,000, it won't be long before people move lots of cash from banks to Money market funds for higher rates and unlimited protection... Ultimately this will drive up mortgage rates... at same time as excess inventory drives down prices... (average home price dropped 11% in August following a 5% drop in July)....

If the financial market seizes up... The ONLY availbe funds will be what people have in their hands and bank accounts... Credit cards won't work... Lines of Credit won't work, home equity notes will be called or rates raised, lines of credit based on home equity will stop... all small business working capital will be based on cashflow... Customers will have to pay COD for all deliveries or shipments... There will be no new loans for vehicles or equipment...

The Bailout is to lubricate the economy-not take on bad loans- They are "bad" only because nobody will buy one at anywhere near their full value...once a few are bought then the mark-to-market action will raise all boats... Balance Sheets will have lots of higher valued assets plus cash and equity... Loans will flow... and credit standards will be raised but loans will be made-homes will start to be bought which will stabilize their values and stop the decline...

Doing nothing is to jump off a cliff...larding up the bill with crap will do nothing to solve the problem short term and will screw things up long term...

AIG insured the loans. They had insurance policy that said the bundled notes would be good... all the claims forced because the mark-to-market criteria was forcing AIG to pay out... Again a run on the insurance company... The Bailout would raise the value of the bundles and reduce the AIG exposure... The present "bailout" is merely a standby loan with warrants that convert to 80% of the stock...diluting the present Shareholders and making the Feds VERY RICH...

Cash is King... "He who got gold make rule"... Congress has the gold...their rules will decide if we go forward or backward... This is a financial problem that needs a financial solution. Unfortunately, I fear we may get a political solution along with a financial one.

This is serious... it can be worse.... It should get better if we can get some adults in the room to speak up... Not Barney Frank and Chris Dodd... They are clowns who have no clue and care less...

So... Tell me if I'm reading this wrong-? Tell me where/what I need to understand better...

Patriotic Taxation

2008-09-25T16:49:00.001Z

Been muddling over Biden's "Paying Taxes is Patriotic" theme... He says the rich should pay more...

But his logic would have the top 1% of tax payers THIRTY-FIVE TIMES more patriotic than the lower 40% of taxpayers... I don't think that's necessarily so...

I was also thinking about the affects on our society when 40% of all the people who are of working age pay NOTHING and in some cases get paid by the govt for making so little...

Surely that breeds a dependency on the politicians who promise more-more-more... It also breeds a complacency about the country, about elections, about the way got is run and about how the nation is working... after all... it costs nothing and occasionally is profitable to be poor.

Under Obama and Pelosi the number of people NOT paying taxes will rise to almost 50%... The top 5% will pay more-more-more and not change any habits or behavior... But if the top 5% is so smart, won't they opt out-? Start their own companies, pay themselves whatever is left over and build equity-? Won't they buy ever bigger houses to get the homeowner decduction... won't lots and lots of tax games get played that are tax avoidance driven vs profit driven-?

When 5% goes from paying 70% of all bills to paying 100%...won't those numbers shrink-? Even taxing the dead won't raise enough to pay even greater freebies for the bottom 50%...

Didn't LBJ try something like this in the '60s...and didn't it lead to ever higher inflation-?

I see some huge rounds of inflation coming if Obama-Pelosi get their way... We'll go broke feeling rich...

I remember reading a tale of Eskimo hunters coating a double edged knife blade with seal grease and freexing the handle in the ice. The wolves would come along and lick the blade. Every lick would bring more warm blood into their belly. And they would die feeling warm, full and happy...

Is that us-?

The War in Iraq- Thoughts

2008-06-02T11:21:00.000Z

The drumbeats are sounding. Even the Washington Post has an editorial saying "We're winning". They are urging Obama to change his Iraq strategy now that he has cinched the nomination. He can dump the Ultra-Left and move to the Center where most of America lives. They conclude with

When Mr. Obama floated his strategy for Iraq last year, the United States appeared doomed to defeat. Now he needs a plan for success.

Jeff Lukens at American Thinker has some thoughts on "Was it worth it?"

No one likes to go to war, but even an elective war is sometimes necessary. With all the consternation these past years, President Bush may finally be able to say "Mission Accomplished" to what he originally set out to do.

This we know, Saddam had Weapons of Mass Destruction. He even gassed his own Kurd and Shiite populations in the 1980s. What happened to those chemical weapons? Who knows? Whether they buried them in the ground somewhere or trucked off to Syria, we had every reason to believe he had them.

It's nice that some people remember the poison gas. The Iranians do. The Kurds do. Saddams generals do. We took the treat seriously.

What should the President of the United States do when 1) we've been attacked by terrorists 2) a state sponsor of terrorism, with Weapons of Mass destruction and willingness to use them, continues to flaunt UN sanctions? 3) When the state sponsor of terrorism corrupts the UN and most of European bureaucracy with his "Oil-For-Food Program" bribes? 4) When we suspect another attack is imminent? Should he wait for another attack-?

The movies are the only places where the Good Guys let the Bad Guys draw first. The Old West Bad Guys were shot in the back, usually with shotguns wielded by farmers. Letting the bad guy fire first gets a lot of innocent bystander type good guys killed.

The question none of the anti-war Bush haters will answer: How many dead Americans before we act-? I've never been told the acceptable level of American dead we should suffer before we commit our forces.

The thought of terrorists with WMDs is scary. However, the worse thought is that we have no way to retaliate. Unlike the Cold War, we can have no Mutual Assured Destruction balance. If we lost a city, who do we nuke-? Do we really nuke the Mountains of Pakistan-? Tehran-? Damascus-? How do we respond to a WMD attack-?

We have learned to do counter-insurgency fairly well. Actually, we have re-learned it. We first learned it in Nicaragua, then forgot it. We were trying to re-learn it in Vietnam, but ran out of citizen patience. We were able to re-learn it and be effective in Iraq. Now, our Pentagon Chiefs want more troops trained for a battle in Europe or Asia against uniformed troops. They want bigger weapons systems, more toys... we may soon go back to sleep and have to re-learn how to do counter-insurgency. Generals need flagpoles and stuff to park beneath it. They need troops to stand in formation around em. A peacetime military needs to justify it's existence by asking Congress for more flagpoles and everything that surrounds it. Otherwise, you don't need all those generals.

From the terrorist, narco-trafficante, narco-terrorist, rogue state perspective; insurgency works. It's cheap, scalable, effective . Forces need little training or discipline so no bases. No uniforms, just used weapons. New recruits can be rounded up either by the press-gangs or internet trolling. They will not likely face trained and disciplined troops who will have the will to fight a lengthy counter-insurgency... Russia has not been successful in Chechnya. Just tramped them down for now. China the same with Tibet.

Was Iraq it worth it-?

I think so. We would have lost more civilians in a WMD attack by terrorists. We would have seen the UN and most of Europe corrupted by seven more years of Oil-for-Food bribes. We may have seen more radicals in control of more oil producing countries in the Middle East. (Would we really have invaded Saudi Arabia if al Quaida had overthrown the govt-? Mecca and Medina off limits to pursuit or attack-? )

It's easy to rant and scream rabid vitriol... it's harder to explain where someone went wrong and why the path not taken was better... Until we invaded, everyone thought Saddam had WMDs and would not hesitate to use them... Should we live with that kind of threat-?

Jottings -Updates- Random Thoughts

2008-05-31T21:59:00.001Z

Economy

It's been a while. Almost two months since I penned my comments on the Recession. We still have no Recession. Some may argue that a .06 increase to a .08 increase isn't very much. However, it's not a decrease. The classical definition is two quarters of reduced (negative) growth. We haven't had any. We may not

I can see some glimmers of the end of the economic downturn. If our politicians don't screw it up by pouring more money (and tax increases) on special interests that reward the quick and easy while purporting to save the slow and diligent. The credit freeze is starting to un-lax (Unwind and relax, My kids said that. It fits.) Loans are being made and people are buying big ticket items. The 47% Bonus depreciation that was included in the Free Money stimulus package will start to kick in in the Third and Fourth Quarters of the year.

Overall, I think we have a bit of "Stagflation" happening. Gasoline costs are driving up the prices of everything but we haven't had an increase in payroll. We are promised huge tax increases by the Democrats next year. So, people are moving their investments into assets. Inflation will make the assets worth more (really the same in constant dollars) Congress will get more money from bracket creep and the bonus depreciation will make the new items cheaper... The low dollar should be making our exports a great bargain. We should have lots of tourists from abroad spending their bigger money on our bargain destinations... But we cannot depend on these sources of income to help pull us around. I look for higher interest rates in the near and long term. We need to make investments in the US competitive and profitable again. I'd like to see us sell some gold and soak up some of the dollars floating around the world. That won't happen for fear of causing a panic.

Oil is a bubble. Anything above $30/bbl is a function of 1) war premium and 2) speculation by lots of big funds and soveriegn nations. Iran is hoarding their oil offshore in tankers. This removes several million bbls from the market and drives up the prices of transportation. In the meantime, Brazil has discovered an estimated 33 billion bbls in deep water offshore. They have tied up many/most of the deep water rigs for their exploration. China will develop the Cuban oil fields and the US will sit with pristine beaches and pay-pay-pay. Sometimes it seems we have adopted the Malcolm Forbes strategy from the 1970's. He urged America to use up everyone else's oil first and then develop our own resources. What we need is to get busy developing our alternatives...

Global Warming

At $6/gal we will change the way we live. At $4/gal we're starting to cut back. The whole Global Warming scam is designed to force us to live poor. The proposed Cap-and-Trade program for businesses is but the opening for personal carbon rationing. I can easily see a time when each of us will be given a ration card. As we use carbon we will be dinged. When we run out, we will be forced to buy more from our less active or industrious fellow citizens...or from the govt. Every gallon of gas, every kilowatt hour, every airplane flight will be subject to rationing.

This is Free Money for the govt. They will create an artificial shortage. They will sell us access to the carbon gases. They will control the supply and not have to actually produce anything in return. They limit the number of nuclear power plants. They limit refinery development. They limit exploration. They define what types of oil we can develop (No Oil Shale, No Canadian Tar Sands)... Of Course, as our Masters and Superior Beings traveling on Important Govt business, they will be exempt from the same rationing scheme.

Can't happen here-? Why not-?

What do we do when the earth turns cold-? Over the past 100,000 years cold has been the dominant weather pattern. We look at our industrial history and become frightened. We see how we have changed and advanced. Things that killed us by the millions 100 years ago are seldom seen by the modern doctors... We are afraid of our success. We have created a new religion that demands great leaps of faith because the scientific evidence is shallow at best. We now need to force everyone to sacrifice for the noble cause. Of course, being humans we all know that those who advocate the most sacrifices will be among the few suffering the least.

What do you think-?

Recession -NOW -Update

2008-04-07T16:33:00.000Z

Are we in a Recession-?

It's been a long time since we had one. The one in 1992 was a "hair-shirt" recession. We talked ourselves into it and we popped out again without the majority of the country feeling anything except worry. We haven't had one in a long time. We're losing the population that lived through the Big Depression.

The slight depression early in the Bush years scared the Republicans enough to push for tax breaks. This one is being fueled by:

1 Fears of a Democrat controlled Congress and White House. Together they have promised to not only let the Bush Tax Breaks expire (prompting a huge tax increase) but to add new taxes and regulations to businesses and The Rich. (Whoever they are-we're never told if we are one or not I don't know who to hate, feel pity or be depressed over.) The Democrat controlled govt is already talking about protectionism and abrogating the NAFTA trade agreements simply "because". They over look the historical affects of the Smoot-Hawley Act which is credited with destroying over 60% or the worlds trade and driving the worldwide Great Depression even deeper. They claim they want the US to use "soft force" to deal with drugs, narco-terrorism and terrorism. Yet they refuse to approve the Columbia Free Trade Agreement. This agreement will improve exports from the US. It will allow Columbian farmers to have a viable economic alternative to the cocaine and marijuana crops. What do the Democrats REALLY want-? The world and America waits for some clarity.

2) the Credit Freeze. Nobody knows what their collateralized securities are worth. They're forced to mark them to market, but the market keeps moving and when it drops the asset value drops. Which spins the cycle yet again. There was some fraud and some theft but not to the degree that companies are writing off their holdings. The knock-on effect is that all funding institutions are looking for belt-and-suspender guarantee on any loans. If the Freeze continues then only the credit card companies with usurous rates will be providing liquidity to the economy.

3) Sinking Dollar is harming our exports. We need an active Fed to start pulling dollars off the market. They can do this by buying in dollars with either foreign currency or swapping some of the gold we hold. At around $1,000/per ounce the US needs to sell some gold, platinum and palladium. (no wonder the meth addicts are stealing catalytic converters from the driveways at night). Gold, Silver,oil are commodity prices all reflect the surplus of US Dollars floating about the world. We cannot raise interest rates in the middle of this credit freeze. Too many contracts are tied to the Fed Rate.

Here are a couple of tidbits from the daily news feed that you may have missed;

The leader of the NBER personally thinks we are sliding into a recession. The NBER, (National Bureau of Economic Research,) a non-profit research organization, typically declares start and end dates for U.S. recessions. The group has not officially declared the U.S. is in a recession.

Transportation is a leading indicator of the economy.
BNSF Idles Freight Cars Due to Downturn
Freight railroad BNSF Railway Co. is parking miles of rail cars in some parts of the country because there is not enough freight to keep them moving, the Associated Press reported Monday.

ISM Contraction May Indicate Trucking Upturn, Analyst Says
Last week’s Institute of Supply Management report that showed continued contraction may actually be good for the trucking industry’s outlook, according to an industry analyst, the Associated Press reported.

I read the two as saying long term freight is gonna slow down. Short and intermediate freight demands will draw down inventories until demand returns. Manufacturing will slow and if demand does not rise, stop. Then we are in deep trouble. Loans must be paid, insurance must be paid, rents, leases and mortgages must be paid, even if there is no manufacturing or sales of goods and services.

Things are not that bad. They probably will never get that bad. Our fears will make them worse. Our politicians may create a problem where one could have been avoided. we don't have to have a recession or depression. The market is correcting itself. The fire will be over before the fire brigades can react-but they may pass laws that make it harder to avoid or correct in the future.

In seven months we will know much more than we do today. Unfortunately, the country cannot hold its reath for that long. Plans will be made, approvals granted or denied, commitments made based upon the best estimates of what the economy will be doing in 2009 and 2010.

What does it all mean-?

How do you read the headlines-?

Economics, Politics, Anticipation

2008-03-07T14:19:00.000Z

WSJ email alert from the Recession-Now front lines:
NEWS ALERT
from The Wall Street Journal
March 7, 2008

U.S. recession fears mounted as employment fell in February at its fastest rate in five years, suggesting that the housing and credit crunch is gripping the broader economy. U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 63,000 in February, after declining 22,000 in January. If not for a rise in government jobs last month, payrolls would have fallen by more than 100,000. However, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.8% from 4.9%.

Ahead of the jobs report the Federal Reserve raised the amounts outstanding in its Term Auction Facility available to banks to $100 billion. The Fed's move lowered the odds of a change in the federal funds rate before the next meeting, but raised the chances of a three-quarter point reduction on March 18.

For more information,

For more analysis of the economy, see: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics

A reason to vote for McCain

Another indication of the affects of politics on business-I am seeing and hearing Investment Bankers and business owners starting to change deal structure and pricing in anticipation of a Democrat take over.

The general line is to lock in M&A terms now before Obama comes with his 28% Capital Gains rate, before the Bush tax cuts expire, before the death tax goes back to 55% over $1M valuation, etc. Lots of talk about shifting assets to trusts and getting creative in ways to avoid the hits.

Business owners are starting to look at ways to deal with increased regulation. Nobody has anything specific yet, but the general tone is that the increased regulation will be more in line with union rules and union organizing attempts. Things that stress business and create a favorful union organizing environment are expected.

Estimates that a full-tilt union America will drive up the cost of everything by 20%... That seems scary, but it was what I heard yesterday... Add to that the tax increases and credit crunch, plus whatever mischief Congress creates to replace the Alternative Minimum Tax... There are gonna be a lot of folks with six figure household income scrambling for tax shelters and new income opportunities...

The markets run ahead of events. Right now there is a bit of panic and a lot of fear. But the tide was already shifting in consideration of higher gasoline prices ($5-$6/gal-?), tighter credit, fewer home starts and less consumer spending...

The Democratic Congress and the Democratic Candidates have succeeded in scaring the marketplace-and the world... It's gonna take some strong medicine to prove them wrong... Cassandra is respected a lot longer than Pollyanna ever was...

Are we talking ourselves into a recession-?

George Anders column in Wednesday's WSJ reflects a lot of the thinking I am hearing and seeing...

Hurry, hurry, hurry to carry out corporate acquisitions before the November elections, some attorneys and investment bankers are telling their clients. That is because they think a Democratic presidential victory could create more roadblocks for takeovers.

Guessing what political-office seekers might do if elected is never a sure thing. Some stances taken on the campaign trail have a way of fading from sight once the election is over. Other positions prove impossible to implement.

Higher capital-gains taxes could also jolt the takeover market, though getting congressional approval for such changes won't be easy. In Senate votes in the past few years, both Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton have voted for ending the current 15% capital-gains rate and returning to higher levels.

Mr. Obama told the TechCrunch Web site in November that he favored capital-gains tax rates close to 28%, where they were under the Reagan administration, though not quite that high. Mrs. Clinton hasn't been as specific.

For individual shareholders, a higher capital-gains rate would mean keeping less of the proceeds from selling a company. That could be a particular sore point for owners of closely held companies, who may have personally built up the value of such companies over decades. As a result, some private-equity firms are urging potential sellers of companies to act fast, while the 15% capital-gains rate still applies.

Our Enemies- Why This War Is Different

2008-03-04T04:09:00.000Z

Alan Dershowitz has an op-ed article in today's WSJ... I bring this forward because not many read the WSJ. Not many read this blog. However, we must consider the future we all face. ( I have excerpted bits of his work. Please read the whole article)

Zahra Maladan is an educated woman who edits a women's magazine in Lebanon. She is also a mother, who undoubtedly loves her son. She has ambitions for him, but they are different from those of most mothers in the West. She wants her son to become a suicide bomber.

Zahra Maladan represents a dramatic shift in the way we must fight to protect our citizens against enemies who are sworn to kill them by killing themselves. The traditional paradigm was that mothers who love their children want them to live in peace, marry and produce grandchildren. Women in general, and mothers in particular, were seen as a counterweight to male belligerence. The picture of the mother weeping as her son is led off to battle -- even a just battle -- has been a constant and powerful image.

Now there is a new image of mothers urging their children to die, and then celebrating the martyrdom of their suicidal sons and daughters by distributing sweets and singing wedding songs. More and more young women -- some married with infant children -- are strapping bombs to their (sometimes pregnant) bellies, because they have been taught to love death rather than life.

The two basic premises of conventional warfare have long been that soldiers and civilians prefer living to dying and can thus be deterred from killing by the fear of being killed; and that combatants (soldiers) can easily be distinguished from noncombatants (women, children, the elderly, the infirm and other ordinary citizens). These premises are being challenged by women like Zahra Maladan. Neither she nor her son -- if he listens to his mother -- can be deterred from killing by the fear of being killed. They must be prevented from succeeding in their ghoulish quest for martyrdom. Prevention, however, carries a high risk of error. The woman walking toward the group of soldiers or civilians might well be an innocent civilian. A moment's hesitation may cost innocent lives. But a failure to hesitate may also have a price.

The traditional sharp distinction between soldiers in uniform and civilians in nonmilitary garb has given way to a continuum. At the more civilian end are babies and true noncombatants; at the more military end are the religious leaders who incite mass murder; in the middle are ordinary citizens who facilitate, finance or encourage terrorism. There are no hard and fast lines of demarcation, and mistakes are inevitable -- as the terrorists well understand.

We need new rules, strategies and tactics to deal effectively and fairly with these dangerous new realities. We cannot simply wait until the son of Zahra Maladan -- and the sons and daughters of hundreds of others like her -- decide to follow his mother's demand. We must stop them before they export their sick and dangerous culture of death to our shores.

What he leaves out is the cost of victory to these deluded fanatics. Yes, we will face the high cost of killing innocents along with those we traditionally will sacrifice to save... But what type of country, what culture will follow should they achieve victory-?

This will be a long and ugly war

We Are Changing

2008-03-04T03:29:00.000Z

Today's WSJ has a front page story about our changing gasoline consumption practices. It's worth a read.

As crude-oil prices climb to historic highs, steep gasoline prices and the weak economy are beginning to curb Americans' gas-guzzling ways.

In the past six weeks, the nation's gasoline consumption has fallen by an average 1.1% from year-earlier levels, according to weekly government data.

That's the most sustained drop in demand in at least 16 years, except for the declines that followed Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which temporarily knocked out a big chunk of the U.S. gasoline supply system.

As supplies have outstripped demand, gasoline inventories have been on the rise for the past four months, reaching their highest levels since February 1994. Yet, in a sign of the growing disconnect between demand and the market, prices at the pump are being driven higher by a powerful rally in crude oil.

Investors piling money into commodities as a refuge from inflation have helped push oil prices close to their inflation-adjusted record of $103.76 a barrel, set in 1980. On Thursday, oil closed at $102.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a new high in nominal terms, but slipped back 75 cents on Friday to settle at $101.84 a barrel. (Gold closed at $985.70/oz, Silver at $21.35/oz, Platinum at $2,230.00/oz, Palladium at $576.00/oz. Grain and other ores are similarly at all time highs-AJ)

Car dealers are selling fewer minivans and large sport-utility vehicles. In fact, only small cars and smaller, more fuel-efficient SUVs, are showing a rise in sales. Small-car sales in January were up 6.5% from a year earlier, while sales of crossover vehicle grew 15.1%, Autodata Corp. says.( I look for changes in engine technology to make the gas guzzlers bargains for the creative and inventive. Such as the man in Sacramento area who has converted a Hummer to diesel and claims to get 20/mpg. Of course, his warranty was voided by the action.-AJ)

At $6.00/gallon we will be a different nation. This will have knock-on affects on restaurants, job choices, wages, housing decisions, entertainment. The pressure on taxi regulations will create political turmoil as restrictions on the number of taxis meets a suddenly rising demand for service. All of this will have political mischief, demagoguing and pandering opportunities.

Sawdust Shortage

Something else we might not have considered with the slump in the housing markets and restrictions on tree harvesting, also from today's WSJ:

The price of sawdust has soared since 2006, up from about $25 a ton to more than $100 in some markets. Blame the housing slump: Fewer new homes mean fewer trees cut for use in construction, which leads to less sawdust and other wood waste, driving up the price.

It's surprising how many industries use wood waste. Wineries use oak sawdust as a flavoring agent for some wines. Perdue Farms, which raises broiler chickens, goes through seven million cubic feet of wood shavings a year. Oil-rig operators in Wyoming and Colorado pour sawdust into the caverns they find deep inside rock formations as they hunt for pools of petroleum. Sawdust gives drill bits something to grind through.

The shortage is leading to some unusual solutions. Mr. Johnson now mines old houses that are being torn down for lumber that he can grind up and sell. He has also opened a free wood dump for any construction crew that wants to drop off any two-by-four trimmings from a local site. Mr. Stulce, who runs the Utah wood-waste supplier to oil rigs, says rig operators that use sawdust are now dumping some novel substitutes. "They're pumping in almond hulls, walnut shells, whatever they can get," he says.

Farmers have come up with perhaps the most unusual tactic: using processed cow manure as bedding instead of wood shavings. Many dairy farms have a process to convert cattle waste into methane gas that they sell to electric generators. The byproduct is basically the hay the cows ate. Lee Jensen's Five Star Dairy in Elk Mound, Wis., uses an aerobic digester to render manure into stall bedding, and has so much on hand after the process that he's selling the excess to neighbors. (I love American ingenuity. This is a great example of making a profit out of what others would consider waste-AJ)

Texas vs. Ohio

The WSJ Opinion Journal has a great comparison of these two states that are playing such an important role in shaping our current election battle.

There's no doubt times are tough in Ohio. The state has lost 200,000 manufacturing jobs since 2000, home foreclosures are soaring, and real family income is lower now than in 2000. Meanwhile, the Texas economy has boomed since 2004, with nearly twice the rate of new job creation as the rest of the nation.

Anti-Nafta rhetoric doesn't play well in El Paso, San Antonio and Houston, which have become gateway cities for commerce with Latin America and have flourished since the North American Free Trade Agreement passed Congress in 1993. Mr. Obama's claim of one million lost jobs due to trade deals is laughable in Texas, the state most affected by Nafta. Texas has gained 36,000 manufacturing jobs since 2004 and has ranked as the nation's top exporting state for six years in a row. Its $168 billion of exports in 2007 translate into tens of thousands of jobs.

Ohio, Indiana and Michigan are losing auto jobs, but many of these "runaway plants" are not fleeing to China, Mexico or India. They've moved to more business-friendly U.S. states, including Texas. GM recently announced plans for a new plant to build hybrid cars. Guess where? Near Dallas. In 2006 the Lone Star State exported $5.5 billion of cars and trucks to Mexico and $2.4 billion worth to Canada.

So tomorrow the eyes of America will be on these two states moving in different directions. Ohio has an economy burdened by high taxes and work rules that impose heavy costs on employers. Texas embraces free trade, keeps taxes low, doesn't impose unions on business and has tooled itself for 21st century global competition. Ohioans may not like to hear this, but for any company considering where to locate a new plant or move an existing one, the choice between Ohio and Texas isn't even a close call.

The challenge for our national economy in a world of competition is to become more like Texas and less like Ohio.

I really enjoy the Wall Street Journal. I find it to be the only newspaper in America that treats me like an educated adult. I don't always agree with their positions. I can't use all the information they bring every day. I would feel handicapped if I did not have access to their information in print and online. Rupert Murdock and News Corp have taken over the paper. I pay for both the print and online. They talk about making the online side free or no charge. I hope they don't get too clever with their marketing... If you don't subscribe, please consider joining. Like William F. Buckley's works -they will prod you from your comfortable set world of assumptions and opinions.

The Future Quoted

2008-03-03T01:01:00.000Z

Every month Forbes magazine has as it's last page a series of quotations. The page is titled "THOUGHTS On the Business of Life"

In January they looked at the future... I thought I'd add my $.02 worth of talkback...

"The future is no place to live your better days" - DAVE MATTHEWS

1) We cannot have it all now. 2) Tomorrow will be a better day 3) Trying to live all your better days in the future is as foolish as trying to live all your better days right now. Youth and life are for learning, experimenting and experiencing. Later days will may whatever comes your way richer and deeper because you delayed. Life is not a zero sum game. There will always be more, better and more pleasant days ahead... Shouldn't we be saying "Today was good, Today was fun. Tomorrow is another one"-?

"There is always one moment in childhood when the door opens and lets the future in" -GRAHAM GREENE

It doesn't always come rushing in all in a gush. There is no single moment when we swap being a child for being an adult or being old. We get peeks and glimpses. Sometimes we get a full dose that is more than we can handle. Sometimes we get so much that our childhood is shortened... The future is always waiting in just the next instant with a surprise...

"Prophecy is the most gratuitous form of error" - GEORGE ELLIOT
"Wall Street indexes predicted nine of the last five recessions" -PAUL SAMUELSON

Self evident...

"The future is called "perhaps" which is the only possible thing to call the future. And the important thing is not to allow that to scare you" -TENNESSEE WILLIAMS

We can change the future. We cannot change the past.We can change the way we view the past. Sometimes for the worse. Sometimes for the better. We cannot fear tomorrow. Even if we are certain that disaster awaits, there is always the possibility that changes will make it better or worse...

"The more unpredictable the world becomes, the more we rely on predictions" -STEVE RIVKIN

Some places they are called forecasts. Sometimes the Board of Directors will spend the forecasted profits. They can be very upset when the results are different. Nobody ever gets fired for bringing in better results than forecast. Many have lost their heads to disappointing results.

"I never think of the future. It comes soon enough" -ALBERT EINSTEIN

I do. I think often about the future consequences of events around me. I am aware that "demographics is destiny" and that as a "Boomer" we will be changing many things for the better as well as for the worse... Most of which we cannot predict. We have a life long history of unintended consequences from our best wishes and good intentions.

"We not only romanticize the future; we have also made it into a growth industry, a parlor game, and a disaster movie at the same time" - EUGENE KENNEDY

Our politicians are promising us great things personally, bad things for the EVIL RICH, and dire consequences for all of us -IF ONLY- They all seem to have a program that involves more of our money, freedoms, privacy and innocence. If only-we would trust them they would provide or prevent exactly what we are seeking.

"The future, according to some scientists will be exactly like the past, only far more expensive" -JOHN SLADEK

Many of our politicians want to lead us into that fantasy world only this time they will arrange funding. No Thanks. I'd rather have our own future, similar but enough different so that the past has been taken into consideration.

"My future starts when I wake up every morning. Every day I find something creative to do with my life" -MILES DAVIS

What a great way to live. I wish I could say that.

"The best way to predict the future is to invent it." ALAN KAY

Amen. Americans can create our own future. We usually drag the rest of the world along with us. Sometimes they don't want it. Mostly, they like the results. They could create their future, but they are afraid of the changes.

New Year, New Outlook

2008-03-02T19:46:00.002Z

Happy New Year.

Yes, I know it's March. March and April have long been associated with New Year- new beginnings, new flowers and new life after a long grey/gray winter (grey with an "e" seems more dreary than with an "a"). Spring seems a more appropriate place for a new year than the Gregorian Calendar that places January 1 as the start of all new things...

I have always had more luck when the business of the new year began along with the rise of grass and green. Warm winds blow more favorably than the cold cutting damp knives of January.

As you noticed from my last post. I became disenchanted and frustrated with the NFL, the New England Patriots, our political tussling, the impending holidays and arrival of family from far and near. I was becoming a grouchy curmudgeon. Who would want to read that drivel.- even if I was right... I have tried hold to the advice that Thumper's Father gave him in the movie "Bambi"; "If you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all."... We can all grinch, complain and gripe... My Grandfather used to say "A kicking mule can't pull"... I have decided to stop kicking... well at least as much events allow.

My Grandfather followed a mule plowing for most of his life. My Father graduated from high school during WWII. He could have had a farming deferment. Being young, energetic and having a hangover he spent one morning walking behind the mule watching it's rear end and decided he would rather go fight Germans... He was 20 years old at the Battle of the Bulge... As he aged he remembered the funny times during the war and tried to forget the horrors. He was among a group that liberated a concentration camp. "It was just a little one " my Aunt said... (Her husband spend the war at Fort Dix wrestling paperwork. We didn't spend much time around her. Stupidity might be contagious. We took no chances.)

It affected my Father when he would remember the horrors of what supposedly civilized people had done to others. He had a hard time sleeping for many years. He went from a small town in a corner of Georgia where most farming was still done the way it had been done for 100 years to the world of mechanized genocide. There was one Jewish family in the country. There were no Catholics. Nobody in his world had ever expressed that kind of hatred and evil... There was some bigotry towards blacks, but the depression had hammered the whole countryside. Everybody was broke. It's hard to hate when you're all in the same boat.

My father died in 1959 in a car wreck. That was long ago, far away and ancient history.

Except it's not. George Santayana is attributed to the misquote "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it". History does seem to run in cycles. It does not run in ruts. Things are never exactly the same as they were before. We can learn something of the future by studying the past and looking for the reasons that people made decisions which led to known results. We do that by studying history. It seems we concentrate too much on battles, elections and personal lives of dictators, kings and royalty. We don't spend enough time looking at the common people. We look at the weapons and great buildings and not at the homes and daily lives of those who make the machinery of civilization work. Yet, when the great leaders need a war, they turn to these people for justification, fodder, support, sacrifice, and sacrifice. When we study businesses we do the same things. We look at the large enterprises, the leaders of these monster corporations... We don't study either the people who make the wheels turn, the paperwork move and the details attended. We don't study successful individuals and look for clues to what habits and traits made them so.

We like to think that we are wise. We are the "thinking ape ". But we are often blind to the people and changes around us. We make plans. We present them for approval, revision, alteration, amendment and finally funding. We give credit to ourselves for our success. When it fails we blame "bad luck " . I have yet to see a successful person attribute their position to "luck " Yet, we study their failures to avoid "bad luck " corrupting our plans... This all seems a bit arrogant to me.

We won WWII. We have no real idea what we did right. We did not have the best trained army. We didn't have the most modern and effective weapons. We were able to build and supply ourselves and our allies. We didn't get into a war of attrition in the traditional sense. We did not repeat the meat-grinders of WWI. The more books are written and the more detailed history is revealed, the more I read it as a very close run. We could have lost.

I think the defining difference between WWI and WWI was American leadership and the spirit of the American people. We were at war. We had been attacked. We struck back and then began the the search for allies, understanding the enemy and preparation to win. We faced an enemy that had attacked its neighbors, had enslaved its citizens and slaughtered thousands because they didn't fit some grand design. We faced an enemy that had wealth, intelligence, cunning, a ruthless disregard for human life be it their own forces or their enemies or the innocents. They were killers willing to use the most modern weapons and means to make the world into a better place for their kind. We had no illusions about their barbarism. We were clear in our commitment that their kind could not prevail or only be knocked down to return again stronger and more deadly.

We were attacked again in 1993 and 2001. In 1993, we treated the attack as a police action. We investigated and found the bad guys. We arrested them and gave them civil rights of a citizen and protections that they would never have given us. Throughout the 1990's we were repeatedly attacked. We continued to treat it as a police issue. We'd fire off a few cruise missiles to blow up some tents, an aspirin factory and bluster about.... We weren't serious about responding militarily. We were afraid of actually facing a serious enemy. We long lived in a delusional world of peace-harmony and political answers to all questions. Our thought leaders were convinced that all evil of the world originated somewhere in America and we should be ashamed of our success. On September 11, 2001 we were attacked by an enemy using airplanes as missiles. Suddenly, we were at war. Our Thought Leaders could not wish away 3,000 dead and replace the vanished buildings.

We faced an enemy that possessed no national homeland, no national boundaries, no national infrastructure, no factories, no government agencies, no way that we could strike back by sending in bombers and cruise missiles. The nation state had dissolved. However, like our enemies from the past these monsters had attacked in many countries , had enslaved its citizens and slaughtered thousands because they didn't fit some grand design. We faced an enemy that had wealth, intelligence, cunning, a ruthless disregard for human life be it their own forces or their enemies or the innocents. They were killers willing to use the most modern weapons and means to make the world into a better place for their kind. They didn't covet our land, our wealth, or citizens, our peace or our prosperity. They hated us because we would be most likely to oppose their planes for world domination. Of all the nations in the world they chose America aas the toughest one to cow with threats and intimidation. They tested us with their 9/11 attack. They tested our newly elected President. Unfortunately, for them, this time they had a President who was willing to fight.

We went after their asylums in Afghanistan, the Philippines and South East Asia. We have had some successes. We have had a hard time convincing many nations and people that we face a united and organized enemy. Our intelligence and forecasts showed that Iraq, which had killed thousands of Iranians and Iraqi Kurds with poison gas, posed athreat. We went to the UN for sanctions and the authorization to use force to enforce the sanctions. WE asked and waited long months for answers to the future of those weapons of mass destruction. When we had no further choice we invaded and removed Saddam Hussein from power. We then engaged in helping the Iraqi people recover from 35 years of totalitarian dictatorship and subjection. It has been a rough process. We have adjusted and things are improving. The terrorists and criminal sectors of Iraqi society saw an opportunity to seize power. New generals, new tactics and the willingness of the Iraqi people to fight for their new lives have dramatically changed things over the past year. Our newspapers and TV media have chosen to ignore our victories. Our Thought Leaders still see America as the font of all evil in the world...

. Our own military has dubbed this "the long war". Like previous "long wars" this may take a long time. We Americans have become accustomed to wars of short duration. We have not fought a long war since our struggle fro independence. We had to convince many that our cause was just and our course correct then as well.

Our enemy hides among the citizens of the world. They are as much at home in the highrise towers and hallways of power and wealth of modern cities as they are in villages and mountain caves. They go by many names. They hide behind the words of religion. They find a cover in religious fervor but when they are at full rampage, they take drugs, rape, steal, murder and desecrate without any consideration of any religion or the laws of any god or nation. They are killers. We refer to them Islamofascists or terrorists . We really don't know what to call them because they are very clever at turning our own civil libertarian concerns against us.

We know that they wish to kill us. They wish to attack and slaughter as many of us as possible. This will weaken our resolve and frighten their enemies. They will be able to convert the weak and assume world supremacy and the fulfillment of some nebulous grand design. They seek and will use any weapon that can kill tens of thousands of us in multiple attacks.

We have grown weary of the war. Our citizens have grown tired of the struggle. Our news media wants a different story. (They bore easily). Democracies have never had the long term will to face a tyrant. The longer we go without another attack, the easier it is to want to withdraw. have we not been attacked because of some plan or simply because we have been lucky, thus far.

Our new President will be tested. The Democrats have chosen to hold a race to withdraw from the major battlefield of this war. Altho, most recently they have decided that rather than remove the troops several hundred miles away they want garrison them inside large fortifications. They propose to fight a counterinsurgency war using the trench warfare tactics that created a meat grinder in "the war to end all wars" 90 years ago.

We are at war. Yet, our economy continues to grow and blossom. 95% of all workers are working. 96% of all mortgages are being paid on time. the revenues collected by the US govt are at all time highs. We do not have a draft to call up more military. Oil is expensive, but it is because the markets are uncertain about its availability 90 days from now. The oil speculators are chary of events in the oil producing regions of the world. There is no shortage of oil.

What the high oil prices have done is make alternatives economically viable. In 1977, I heard Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani speak. The first OPEC cartel price increases had shaken the world. Yamani had gone to school in America and knew us well. Like Admiral Yamamoto before him he knew that when they provoked America they "awoke a sleeping tiger". He feared that raising the prices too high or too quickly would prompt American ingenuity to find alternatives to their oil.

We are close to that point now. The high prices at the gas pump are prompting the govt., investors, inventors and entrepreneurs to seek alternatives. Ethanol and soy deisel now provide great farm subsidies but they pose long term problems. Wind and solar power are dependent upon the wind blowing and the sun shining. Improvements in solar power generation chips make it seem that we face another "Moore's Law" style revolution. If all these measures prove as promised what does that mean for the Middle East-?

Without oil wealth at the present level, will the world still scramble for access, control, possession-? If we only need oil as a lubricant, will the terrorists still get their funding-? Will terrorist states still fund their proxy wars-? What will the Islamofascists do when there is no more oil wealth-?

We must remain true to our American principles. We face many problems in the future. However the future is not carved in stone. We can still change the fates that our politicians say are aligned against us.

We cannot surrender to the fear mongers who would make us hide from the future. We cannot solve the problems of the future by retreating into the failed answers of the past. We cannot withdraw from the world. We cannot build walls and barriers to protect ourselves from everything. We are Americans. We are optimistic. We are inventive. We are creative. We are imaginative. We do not "muddle through", except when we are preparing to change the game...

We are the lucky beneficiaries of a grand experiment in participatory democracy. We are the first nation founded not by a tribe, a geographic boundary, race, religion or act of some government. We are founded on the philosophy that "all men are created equal and are endowed by their Creator of certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness"

From that premise, we hold that all humans have a right to life, liberty and the freedom to pursue happiness... This makes us very much at odds with any nation or person that would deny or restrict life, liberty or freedom to anyone else. We have struggled with this history within our own boundaries. We have not won all the battles. We have too many who would take and even more who would surrender their freedoms for the politicians promise of the better life as a slave. Too many who would exchange the freedom to pursue happiness as we each define it for the promise of safety, security, jobs, health, housing, education and old age assistance... That way lies the trap of slave master, the tyrant, the return to serfdom

Thanks to Wikipedia for the history links...

New England Hillarys

2007-12-04T05:35:00.000Z

The Associated Press think they watched a football game. They seem to overlook the affects of "inevitability".

Like the Democrat Candidate whose only claim to fame is marrying well, the New England Patriots have convinced everyone that "They Will Win." There is no thought of not winning. There is no consideration of a universe where they do not hold the orb and wear the crown to their own magnificence.

Being the "Inevitable Winner" makes all those who might be judging, who might ordinarily given an equal balance to both sides to put their thumbs on the scales of the inevitable. Watching the referee calls of the New England Hillary games supports my opinion. Reading the news from the NFL about how New England, who had no -NEED- to cheat was caught, was fined $250,000 and Coach Bellichek was fined $500,000 the ONE-AND-ONLY-TIME- they ever cheated. (Big fine for people who make millions and will get a big bonus for winning the Super-Duper-Bowl-Not)

Presidential Candidate and Presidential Wife Hillary and The New England Hillarys enjoy the benefits of being "the inevitable winner". If you get caught cheating, a pass will be given. Or small slap on the wrist. In the throes of the game, well, "if they're gonna win anyway: Why not let this slide? or Why hesitate to flag the other side?"

That the Ravens, losers of five straight, would test the Patriots so severely was stunning. Indeed, if not for untimely penalties and a fumble of an interception return by Ed Reed, the Ravens might have pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NFL history.

Baltimore got a brilliant effort from Willis McGahee, who rushed for 138 yards and a touchdown. Boller threw for two scores, and the Ravens managed three sacks.

But they couldn't manage to hang on.

That could/might be written about Presidential Candidate, Senator Obama

After all, the goal is NOT sportsmanship, democracy, fair play, or even honesty and truth. Nope, there is -BIG MONEY- at stake and the rubes must think they saw a fight between good and evil, between right and wrong, and of course the good guys -MUST WIN IN THE END-!!

And when the public gets turned off-? Well, the audience that's left will not be paying as close attention, won't know the rules, won't be as critical of the sloppy theft...

Am I talking about the NFL or the Elections in November-?

Dylan Again

2007-12-02T02:38:00.000Z

After posting my most recent demi rant... I remembered that we had been told the answer to these and many other questions long, long ago....

Blowing In the Wind -Bob Dylan -1963
How many roads must a man walk down
Before you call him a man?
Yes, 'n' how many seas must a white dove sail
Before she sleeps in the sand?
Yes, 'n' how many times must the cannon balls fly
Before they're forever banned?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind.

How many times must a man look up
Before he can see the sky?
Yes, 'n' how many ears must one man have
Before he can hear people cry?
Yes, 'n' how many deaths will it take till he knows
That too many people have died?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind.

How many years can a mountain exist
Before it's washed to the sea?
Yes, 'n' how many years can some people exist
Before they're allowed to be free?
Yes, 'n' how many times can a man turn his head,
Pretending he just doesn't see?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind.

A Simple Request

2007-12-02T02:13:00.000Z

I'd like to make a simple request to our Masters in Washington who continue to spend our money as tho it was not theirs or ours...

Following the bail Out of Chrysler, Long Term Capital Management, and now the -ENTIRE MORTGAGE INDUSTRY- and following the murder of the Savings and Loans ....

Can we get some adult supervision-?

I'd like to know what companies or industries are "Too Big To Fail"... We have read about Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae... Their implicit govt guarantee has never been clarified or quantified. WILL the Congress step in to save them-? With several trillion dollars under their control- Are they Public or Private-?

When a company is "Too Big To Fail" can we get some special supervision-? Is GM or Ford worthy of watching-? What about Intel or Microsoft-? The healthy may need a bailout- What is our policy-? Who decides-? Who Watches them-?

SEC head and former Congressman Cox wants some help watching foreign (sovereign) investors buying into our financial companies and other strategic businesses... What industries and what companies should fall into this category...

Hillary says that Social Security is "Not A Problem".... The old will die off about the time the Boomers arrive en masse... When did that happen-? After hearing for the past 30 years that the worlds greatest Ponzi Scheme was facing a crisis- Hillary decides its all been solved.... When will she be called to explain how this all works-? Social Security went from a safety net to an entitlement. It has gone from a surplus large enough to lend to Congress and fund all sorts of give aways... Then it was going broke. It was a looming crisis... Then it was gone...

Can Congress be trusted to enact legislation that will protect our economy-?

They give small assurances that they care deeply about capitalism. Asked about Liassez Faire Capitalism and they chuckle at such a quaint idea... Yet, where do all those tax dollars come from-? Most Congress-People have never worried about meeting a payroll or even honoring a commitment to a customer. They are professionals who have spent their life spending our money.

Where are the adults-? Where are the people who make things happen-? The people who solve problems long before they become a crisis and never claim credit... They just move on to the next small problem confident that something they haven't thought of will come along any minute-either disaster or opportunity--- and comfortable that more opportunities for good come along over time.

The -RIGHT- side of the blog-O-sphere is less vociferous, prolificate and timely than our friends on the sinister side.... But we have to meet commitments and pay bills...

That's my story about the sparse postings these past few months... Sometimes ya-just-gotta go make a buck or two...

Drop a line-add a comment-say "Howdy" if you're passing thru...

The Times ARE Changing

2007-11-07T22:35:00.000Z

Remember when we were the ones singing this... Please read all the lyrics.

Scroll all the way down for the Latest Bit of Deliciously Ironic News

The Times They Are A Changing -Bob Dylan (1963)

Come gather 'round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be drenched to the bone.
If your time to you
Is worth savin'
Then you better start swimmin'
Or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won't come again
And don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There's a battle outside
And it is ragin'.
It'll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don't criticize
What you can't understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is
Rapidly agin'.
Please get out of the new one
If you can't lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin'.

The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin'.
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin'.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Senator Obama tells FOX NEWS:

'I think there's no doubt that we represent the kind of change that Senator Clinton can't deliver on and part of it is generational. Senator Clinton and others, they've been fighting some of the same fights since the '60's and it makes it very difficult for them to bring the country together to get things done.' Developing... From Drudge...

The funny parts are just beginning..... Maybe-just maybe- he's right and the boomers have stayed around too long to ever resolve the Vietnam War-?

UPDATE: Obama says Hillary is fighting same fight she has been fighting for decades. This is the video link. I think this is a theme that may have some legs... It also plays very strongly with those who believe that Iraq is not another Vietnam. He shoots and scores against his enemies and finds new supporters...

Here We Go Again

2007-09-25T17:12:00.000Z

Not the first shot, not the last... Just one that made the news.... When Jay Rosen and the Professionals of Establishment Media speak about/defend their "HARDWORKING" professional reporting, think of the PR flacks who first drafted it and the PR Committee that approved it long before the story was ever released...

Hillary as President will be the most media controlling person to ever hold the office. Josh Green was the author assigned by GQ to do the story...

Green was not a particular favorite of the Clinton campaign, however. He took the assignment from GQ not long after finishing an unflattering 13,000-word profile in the November 2006 Atlantic Monthly, which concluded that the junior Senator from New York is, more or less, a timid, calculating pol.

“Today Clinton offers no big ideas, no crusading causes — by her own tacit admission, no evidence of bravery in the service of a larger ideal. Instead, her Senate record is an assemblage of many, many small gains. Her real accomplishment in the Senate has been to rehabilitate the image and political career of Hillary Rodham Clinton. Impressive though that has been in its particulars, it makes for a rather thin claim on the presidency. Senator Clinton has plenty to talk about, but she doesn’t have much to say,” he wrote.

Early this summer, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign for president learned that the men’s magazine GQ was working on a story the campaign was sure to hate: an account of infighting in Hillaryland.

So Clinton’s aides pulled a page from the book of Hollywood publicists and offered GQ a stark choice: Kill the piece, or lose access to planned celebrity coverboy Bill Clinton.

There’s nothing unusual about providing extra access to candidates to reporters seen as sympathetic, and cutting off those seen as hostile to a campaign.
The 2004 Bush campaign banned a New York Times reporter from Vice President Dick Cheney’s jet, and Sen. Barack Obama threatened to bar Fox News reporters from campaign travel.

But a retreat of the sort GQ is alleged to have made is unusual, particularly as part of what sources described as a barely veiled transaction of editorial leverage for access.

The Clinton campaign is unique in its ability to provide cash value to the media, and particularly the celebrity-driven precincts of television and magazines. Bill Clinton is a favorite cover figure, because his face is viewed within the magazine industry as one that can move product. (Indeed, Green’s own magazine, The Atlantic Monthly, ran as its October cover story “Bill Clinton’s campaign to save the world.”)
The Clinton campaign has more sway with television networks than any rival. At the time Clinton launched her campaign, the networks’ hunger for interviews had her all over the morning and evening news broadcasts of every network — after her aides negotiated agreements limiting producers’ abilities to edit the interviews. This past weekend, she pulled off another rare feat — sitting for interviews with all the major Sunday talk shows. In most cases, the Sunday shows will reject guests who have appeared on competing shows. (The offices she set-up in the Summer of 2000 on "M" street are perfect location for an easy walk to all the studios, except Fox. It wasn't a consideration at the time-Andy)

Saunders, the Syracuse novelist who is writing the Clinton story for GQ, declined to discuss his story, citing GQ policy.

He told the Syracuse Post-Standard in July that he was planning to travel with the former president to tour Clinton Foundation projects in Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi and South Africa and said he’d voted for Bill Clinton twice.

“It seems like [Clinton’s] gift, one of his gifts, is everybody likes him and knows him, so he can get people in a room and make things happen,” Saunders told the Syracuse paper. “I just like the idea that at this elderly stage of life, you can go and get your doors blown off.”

Asked by Politico if he was interested in hearing how his access to Clinton was procured, he demurred.

“I don’t think I want to know,” he said.

Read the whole thing.... It'll turn your stomach.... Unless of course, it makes you feel good.. John Hawkins on Explaining Liberal Thinking In A Single Column.

Liberals love to think of themselves as intellectual and nuanced, but liberalism is incredibly simplistic. It's nothing more than "childlike emotionalism applied to adult issues." Very seldom does any issue that doesn't involve pandering to their supporters boil down at its core level to more than feeling "nice" or "mean" to liberals. This makes liberals ill equipped to deal with complex issues.

Since liberals tend to support or oppose policies based on how those policies make them feel about themselves, they do very little intellectual examination of whether the policies they advocate work or not. That's because it doesn't matter to them whether the policy is effective or not; it matters whether advocating the policy makes them feel "good" or "bad," "compassionate" or "stingy," "nice" or "mean."
That's why, for example, you may see ferocious debates on the right side of the blogosphere about the war, illegal immigration, or spending. But, with the netroots, the debates almost always revolve around the best strategy to get more liberals elected. The issues are not really up for debate, other than debate over how to get them enacted.
This same thinking leads to very little criticism of liberals by other liberals. Liberals will ferociously defend and even happily echo the lies of other liberals. Liberal feminists will defend Bill Clinton and Ted Kennedy. Liberals who pride themselves on being tolerant of other races will support Robert Byrd. Why? Because even if they're wrong, they're still fellow liberals -- which must mean they’re nice people. What this leads to is an attitude that can be summed up like so: "The only things that a liberal can do wrong is to be insufficiently liberal, to question an important plank of the liberal agenda, or to do something politically that aids conservatives."

Please follow the link to read more.... You'll learn how to tell a Liberal, but you'll never tell them much. (Hat Tip Gail at Rubicon3)

Captain Ed has some interesting notes about the lack of historical knowledge at Columbia University.

Would A Columbia Appearance Have Avoided WWII?

One of the sillier defenses of yesterday's appearance by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at Columbia University came from the man who initiated the Ahmadinejad speech. Over the weekend, John Coatsworth, acting dean of Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, suggested that had Columbia invited Adolf Hitler to Columbia in 1939, he would not have underestimated the will of the American people and would have avoided declaring war on the US. Bret Stephens addresses this in today's OpinionJournal

These what-if games can be a lot of fun and offer all sorts of debatable outcomes. This, however, doesn't to anyone with any sense of what Hitler was doing in 1939, 1938, or pretty much since the reoccupation of the Rhineland. Stephens addresses the contemporaneous response to Hitler from Academia and Literaria, so let's remind people of the other historical realities.
Hitler spent the years before the war making speeches intended for outside consumption. He talked about the German desire for peace; he reminded foreign audiences incessantly of all Germany had lost during the previous war. Germany had no desire to bleed all over again, Hitler insisted, but it wanted its proper status in the community of nations recognized.

The more Hitler talked like this, the more appeasement minded the West became. They talked about his reasonable attitude and the unfairness of the Versailles shackles, while ignoring both his manifesto in Mein Kampf and his domestic rhetoric. Hitler had done more than just talk, too, by 1939. He had rearmed in violation of treaties, he had conducted an Anschluss in his annexation of Austria, and he had already dismembered Czechoslovakia in direct opposition to his promises at Munich in 1938.

And let's not forget that by 1939, both the Nuremberg racial laws and Krystallnacht were historical facts.

An invitation to Columbia in 1939 would have only perpetuated the fraud that Hitler had worn almost threadbare in Europe by that time. It would not have convinced Hitler to deviate from war, but would have assured him that America was just as spineless as the democracies he detested in Europe. And in any event, Hitler declared war on the US to honor his treaty obligations to Japan, which Coatsworth seems to have forgotten.

The parallels between the 1939 hypothetical of Coatsworth and the appearance of Ahmadinejad yesterday do seem striking -- and they refute any defense of Columbia's staging of Iranian propaganda.

Emphasis added, follow both links.... Stephens is good.... Captain Ed adds some desperately perspective to this conversation... Columbia would have been right for insisting that it was educational, if they had not taken so many steps to stifle free speech among students, faculty and choice of visitors for so many years. Perhaps, the national and international spotlight will shine brightly and their foolish antics will die off... One can hope.

Or we can all go get a Second Life and live forever.... Jonathan V. Last has the story in the coming issue of Weekly Standard.

The online computer game Second Life has garnered more attention in the last 24 months than any other bit of technology. Heralded everywhere from the Wall Street Journal to the Hollywood Reporter to Scientific American, it has been variously proclaimed a revolutionary communication tool, the future of the Internet, the next great business frontier, and a giant, looming social hub that will make MySpace and Facebook obsolete. One technology research group predicts that by 2011, 80 percent of Internet users will be in Second Life or something like it.

What is Second Life? Technically, it is a Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game (MMORPG), the geek term for an Internet portal where large numbers of people interact in a virtual world. But during the last couple of years observers have begun debating whether it is a game at all, or rather something different, a new kind of virtual space. What is certain is that millions of people have signed up for Second Life. Almost 900 of them--up from 450 last year--gathered in late August at a hotel by Lake Michigan for the third annual Second Life Community Convention. They came from across the country as well as from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Japan, and from all walks of life. One of them, an attractive older woman named "LaraZ Allen," is a former college professor who was at loose ends after retirement. Then she found Second Life and began playing for roughly six hours a day. The longest she has ever gone is 12 hours. "It takes the place of work" she says.
Second Life was developed in 2003 by the San Francisco tech company Linden Lab. Players (Linden Lab calls them "residents") download a program to their computer that allows them to log into Second Life and create a character they control, an avatar. They customize the avatar's physical appearance, making it look like anything from an Asian woman to a white man to a giant animal resembling a college football mascot. And then they appear in the Second Life world.
This world looks like a cartoon rendering of the real world, or, more accurately, a cartoon rendering of Malibu. The real world infrastructure of Second Life is a farm of computer servers. Each hosts a small virtual region, which is rendered as a 65,536 square meter island. These islands feature animated beaches and waterfalls, shopping malls and dance clubs, houses and office buildings. Altogether they form a vast archipelago (which is itself subdivided into three minicontinents). If the virtual land inside Second Life were made real today, there would be 780 square kilometers of it, more than a fourth of the size of Rhode Island. All of this land belongs to the residents. Linden Lab sells it to them; an island costs $1,675 and then $295 a month in maintenance fees. (Linden Lab has gone far in guaranteeing residents real property rights. Unlike most MMORPGs, Second Life allows residents to own the virtual space and the objects within it.) Once you buy your island, you can develop and use it however you wish: Some residents have even created scale versions of downtown Dublin and Amsterdam.

Read the whole story.....

Demographics is Destiny

2007-09-23T19:03:00.000Z

An open question... Please tell me what you see....

I am curious about what you see around you... Arizona is filled with boomers who retired and moved to the warmth, the relatively cheap housing, the golf courses etc... But they also moved away from family, friends and sociel structures. They have money and buy classic cars, hot rods, new go-fastre-mobiles... They spend a lot of time golfing and going to meetings to act like they are still vital. The wives shop, lunch and plan dinner reservations. Both men and women drink a lot. The widowers get busted for hiring hookers. The widows stay out of the newspaper... They have steady income and healthcare for life... all they face is the effort to continue breathing... at age 55 they probably ave 20-30+ years ahead... Daughter calls them "Kids who don't go to class" like she saw at college...

I like the Bay Area where there is lots of new businesses popping up. Opportunities to invest, mentor, are talk with people who are living on the edge of either bankruptcy or phenomenal wealth... The cost of living keeps everyone living the Law of the Serengeti (Everyone wakes up running. Either to catch your meal or to avoid being a meal)

North Florida has lots and lots of gated communities, resorts. Similar phenomena as Arizona with rich kids not going to class... They drive down and return to visit families up north more often. But they still wander around lost....

77 million retired boomers by 2012 is a lot of kids not going to class. My kids report that they are seeing boomers hanging on past retirement age. The problem is that 1) they clog up the promotion path for the young and 2) they quit working. They come in and read the paper. Plan lunch. Come back from lunch and doze... Some don't even turn on their computers. Office managers have taken to monitoring whether the machines are powered up. They monitor the work and examine whether it has been done or if stuff has been merely sat on for 1-2-3-4 days and returned...

I foresee problems ahead. Idle minds and idle hands get into mischief. Resentment by the young. Decline in efficiencies of the enterprise. Aged does not equate to wise. That makes them fodder for sharks, weasels, and crooks...

IOW... To me its a potential problem for all of us as a society. The new generation has a very different set of skills and abilities. They are not boomers-but-better... They are different. I find many who are incredibly naive. They are much more innocent than we were at the same age. I also find they go into rage much faster. When they think they have been cheated or had their rights have been trespassed upon they are ready for lawsuits, violence, and have a ard time controlling themselves. Women are as guilty as men. The women are a surprise, but having grown up in a world of single Moms and a steady diet of womens rights it's understandable... They also seem oblivious to effects of the casual sexual flirtation and invitations that they toss off. I know that I'm old. I also accept the world as changing.

It is a different world aborning... What does it look like where you are? Is it just me watching the parade in small towns, big cities and airports I visit-? There is much good coming but danger also lurks unchecked and unchallenged.

The WSJ Economics Blog reports with more details and specifics about the economic changes they see;

The graying of the world’s industrialized countries poses severe challenges to fiscal health, and more needs to be done to address the situation, according to a new Standard & Poor’s report.

The study, titled “What a Change a Year Makes: Standard & Poor’s 2007 Global Graying Progress Report,” says that progress has been made in the last 12 months through structural fiscal consolidation, but cautions that the net debt burden could be overpowering by 2050.

“Almost all [the nations] in the sample will face a very significant deterioration in public finances over the next half-century as a result of demographic change, unless a countervailing fiscal adjustment is put in place or social security and other age-related spending programs are reformed,” S&P credit analyst Moritz Kraemer said.

Proposing overhauls to social security programs may not be popular, but change is essential to achieve long-term stability, Mr. Kraemer said.

“What is needed is to unerringly make the case with a reluctant electorate that the road to the long-term stability of public finances, and therefore social security systems, is still steep, long, and stony,” he said. –Phil Izzo

Please read the comments... scroll down

From the research recap report on the S&P report:

Its initial gentle decline would accelerate by 2015 and continue until the mid-2030s, by which time the vast majority of countries would display fiscal characteristics that today are associated with speculative-grade sovereigns.

All hope is not lost, however. The ongoing reform debate is mildly encouraging., S&P says. Most of the action seems to be focused on reforming pension systems. This focus is politically appealing, as the sacrifices are often in the distant future and are not easily understood by the electorate. Technically, tackling social security is also relatively “easy,” compared with health care reform, which has to address more immediately felt and ethically charged issues. The value of government surpluses for the long-term sustainability of public finances is also becoming increasingly appreciated.

In the past, governments often tended to downplay the relevance of today’s deficits, which, they alleged, were needed to stimulate growth, ignoring the point that high deficits and high growth hardly ever go hand in hand. The economic outturn, however, has led all governments to at least pay lip service to the merits of short-term fiscal consolidation, S&P says.
The full report, 2007 Global Graying Progress Report, can be purchased here

Drop a line and tell me what you think and see in your part of the world.

Further Profiles in Non-Courage

2007-09-21T01:20:00.000Z

Radley Balko Has the update:

All 13 members of Congress subpoenaed in the Duke Cunningham investigation have refused to turn over documents and testimony, citing congressional privilege. This was under advice from the House general counsel.

Keep in mind, this is the same Congress that, when questioned by Major League Baseball over its constitutional authority to investigate the steroid scandal, replied that its jurisdiction extended to "any time" and "on any matter."

So while they seem to think their subpoena power is universal, don't expect them to be held accountable themselves.

Raw Story has more details including an explanation for why Duncan Hunter is running for President. Why would a Congressman from California strap on the immigration issue and try to run all the way to the White House with it-? It stops the investigation and the Press from following too closely. If elected, long shot at best, he would get a free ride while in office following the precedent so widely argued by the Democrats about President Clinton...

The subpoenas were issued for "documents and testimony" by the lawyer for Brent Wilkes, a defense contractor named in Cunningham's case. Cunningham pled guilty and is serving eight years in prison.
Five lawmakers received subpoenas for documents and testimony: House Armed Services Chairman Ike Skelton (D-MO), House Intelligence Chairman Silvestre Reyes (D-TX); Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA); House Defense Appropriations Chairman John Murtha (D-PA); and ranking House Appropriations Republican Jerry Lewis (R-CA).

Other members were served subpoenas requesting only testimony.

Among them were: House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO), erstwhile House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL), Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-MI), Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-MI); Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), Rep John Doolittle (R-CA), Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL), and Rep. Norm Dicks (D-WA).

A spokesman for for Rep. Hunter told RAW STORY by email Tuesday that Hunter had been advised by House General Counsel that the subpoena was "inconsistent with the precedents and privileges of the House." Hunter is the ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee and a candidate for president.

"Congressman Hunter intends to continue consulting with House Counsel on this matter and will proceed according to their judgment," Kasper said. (with a straight face-?-Andy)

Radley Balko way back in December of Oh-Five for Fox News , had some background on our "Courageous Leaders" in his story about Congress investigating steroid use in Major League Baseball... Just more examples of "Do as I say not as I do" Leadership from the back of the parade. (emphasis in red-Andy)

It probably won't surprise you to learn that there's some clear hypocrisy at play here, too. The same politicians railing against the failings of big-time sports have curiously difficult time keeping their own house in order. For example, John McCain — himself one of the "Keating Five" Senators tainted by the savings and loan scandal — says the federal government needs to regulate professional boxing because the sport is hopelessly corrupt.

That may well be. But then, so is Congress. Two high-profile members of McCain's own party have been indicted in just the last two months. His Senate majority leader is under investigation for insider trading. And of course, there's the legal, ongoing "corruption" that takes place in Congress every day, such as when members procure wasteful pork projects from the federal treasury to win favor with constituents back home, or when lobbyists give sweetheart jobs to the family members of senators and congressmen. The notion of Congress "cleaning up" another institution is laughable.

Likewise, Rep. Davis and fellow baseball antagonists say steroids and amphetamines give athletes an "unfair advantage" over the competition. Never mind that after the 2000 census, Davis led efforts to gerrymander his own congressional district to ensure he'd never need to worry about re-election. Due to gerrymandering, Davis ran unopposed in 2002, as did one in five of his congressional colleagues.

Davis also recently sneaked a provision into federal legislation that prevented an apartment complex from going up in his district because, according to the Washington Post, he feared it would bring too many Democrats into the area. And as head of the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, Davis fought to similarly gerrymander Republican districts across the country, effectively giving many voters just one candidate to choose from.

As for McCain, he's responsible for putting limits on campaign spending that will make it even more difficult for challengers to knock off incumbents in the House and Senate.

Such efforts make it more difficult for voters to hold the GOP accountable when, for example, its party leaders prove to be corrupt. While opinion polls show the public's approval of Congress consistently hovers around 40 percent, 98 percent of incumbents won re-election in 2004. According to a Cato Institute study by Patrick Basham and Dennis Polhill, "90 percent of Americans live in congressional districts where the outcome is so certain that their votes are irrelevant."

So it's difficult to take politicians like Davis and McCain seriously when they talk about healthy competition and unfair advantages. If a slugger has indeed been using steroids, he may well have cheated opposing pitchers of a fair duel, or paying customers of a level baseball game. But politicians like Davis do all they can to cheat voters out of honest elections and electoral accountability. Which is worse?

Don't expect much from the New Ethics Legislation that the Democrats ran on and promised and delivered within their first week in the majority... It's more re-arrangement of furniture, more smoke, more mirrors and more "bugger-thy-neighbor"... Screwing the opposition is more important than investigating and removing scoundrels... Nothing really changed...

Leadership From The Rear Of The Parade

2007-09-20T21:33:00.000Z

NRO's Byron York has the story... (HT Instapundit) Short and succinct showing Democratic "Leadership" in hiding... There will be no "Sister Souljah" moment here for the Democrats. Some of their weasels are saying to wait until March-April-May-June and then the Democrat Candidate will HAVE TO move to the center to stand a chance. Do they really think we will forget this bit of bravery? They all run claiming to be "leaders" but it looks like they are leading from the rear... I don't think these colors are true-blue or blood-red...They seem a pale yellow to me... I don't think any of these fine people will be writing or written up in any "Profiles In Courage"... Maybe we should have Dan Rather read this on the nightly news and close by saying "courage". His signature tag line... Would the irony be noticed-?

Senate Condemns MoveOn Ad
[Byron York]
The final vote was 72-25, with three not voting. Hillary Clinton voted against condemning MoveOn, while Barack Obama and Joseph Biden did not vote. Here are the nays:
Akaka (D-HI)
Bingaman (D-NM)
Boxer (D-CA)
Brown (D-OH)
Byrd (D-WV)
Clinton (D-NY)
Dodd (D-CT)
Durbin (D-IL)
Feingold (D-WI)
Harkin (D-IA)
Inouye (D-HI)
Kennedy (D-MA)
Kerry (D-MA)
Lautenberg (D-NJ)
Levin (D-MI)
Menendez (D-NJ)
Murray (D-WA)
Reed (D-RI)
Reid (D-NV)
Rockefeller (D-WV)
Sanders (I-VT)
Schumer (D-NY)
Stabenow (D-MI)
Whitehouse (D-RI)
Wyden (D-OR)

Continuing with the "Whodathunkit?" surprises... OK...Shock and amazement...

Some of the senators who won the greatest support from the netroots in the last election, like McCaskill, Tester, Klobuchar, and Webb, voted to condemn the ad.

President Bush, being not quite the dummy he's supposed to be, lets the Democrats know he's watching their acts of bravery.

President Bush said Thursday that he has reached the conclusion that “most Democrats are afraid of irritating a left-wing group like MoveOn.org.”

He added that he was disappointed that not more Democrats spoke out against it, saying it shows that they are more worried about alienating left-wing groups than the military.
MoveOn.org reacted to Bush’s statement with an attack of its own.

“What’s disgusting is that the President has more interest in political attacks than developing an exit strategy to get our troops out of Iraq and end this awful war,” said Eli Pariser, the executive director of MoveOn.org Political Action Committee.

Since MoveOn is unlikely to EVER say anything nice about the President, they are all too easily dismissed. The personal attacks take no talent, no work, no effort and really show the shallow level of examination and debate that passes for wise commentary among our fellow Americans on the Left side of the aisle... A few big words, a few facts, a few conclusions and the sale might be easier to get across. The constant hectoring and harrowing is boring. GIVE ME SOMETHING OF VALUE IN EXCHANGE FOR MY TIME IN READING YOUR THOUGHTS. If those who barely pay attention are bored, how must those who get a steady diet feel-?... What does the passing parade think of the elementary schoolyard name calling-? Does it really engender support-?

It's too bad the Right side of the aisle has to work... a good horse race might ensue... "Work, the curse of the chattering classes"...to coin a new phrase from an old one...

Opening Shots: Healthcare

2007-09-20T04:29:00.000Z

Fame, makes a man take things over
Fame, lets him loose, hard to swallow
Fame, puts you there where things are hollow
Fame
From the album, Fame
David Bowie
- words and music by David Bowie, John Lennon and Carlos Alomar

"One of the best ways to win any game is to write the rules."

Michael S. Malone

Reading the initial reports and reactions to the latest iteration of One-Size-Fits-Most-HillaryCare, the two quotations seem prescient.

The slow accretion of HillaryCare through the SCHiP program would expand Federal coverage to poor families of four earning up to $80,000 a year. The other forms of accretion prophesied in the various editorials and learned writings of wise people include a plan to open the Veterans Administration to cover all verterans, not just thosew ith duty related injuries and illness, A further rumor, at this time, is that MediCare benefits will be granted to people at age 55. The primary beneficiaries of this political raid on the Treasury will be the automakers. They would remove billions of dollars in obligations for retiring and retired UAW employees from their balance sheet. This would allow them to pay their employees even more in wages.

All of the rumors. All of the schemes and plans do not get around the fundamental flaw in HillaryCare II. It will be mandatory that all citizens have healthcare. The plan would require employers to provide it, allow individuals to retain their present plans, provide tax credits to small businesses and give it away to the poor. Which "poor" is not really clear.

When asked HOW she will ensure that EVERYONE has health insurance she says "That'll be up to Congress". He further comments that she can envisage a time when a person must show proof pf health insurance to get a job gives an indication of where the pressures will come.

Governments do not like small business, small farmers, small entrepreneurs. They never act to defend, protect or encourage them until they are almost gone. A big enterprise is much easier to control. Pay attention to the large numbers and the small ones will take care of themselves is the attitude. Hillary's comments during the last go-round that "She can't be responsible for every undercapitalized business in America". The main engines of economic growth and prosperity are the small businesses. Central planning failed in every nation that has tried it. It fails because it does not respond to the individual needs, fails at innovation, fails to squeeze efficiencies out of the process, fails to negotiate vigorously for supplies and fails to charge a compensatory rate.

HillaryCare II does not explain why anyone would stay with private insurance when Federal subsidies are available It doesn't explain what will happen to insurance companies that enact their cost controls to noisy voters who will shriek to their Congressman.

Governments Coerce. Business Can Only Convince. That is the main differences in the free market and the command and control of HillaryCare. Hillarycare will ultimately turn into a coercive, bloated, bureaucratic nightmare. Efficiency in Canada, The UK and Europe is called "rationing". Innovation means stealing the patent and intellectual property rights from inventors. at best. At worst, it means waiting for discards and buying old technology that is always years behind the US. The needs of all consumers/voters are treated equal. Lately, the UK and Canada have begun to limit, restrict and punish those who lead lifestyles that may led to greater medical costs, even though they also lead to an earlier death.

The problem with healthcare in America is the lack of competition. We have no consistent tidal forces driving costs down and efficiencies up. Wherever the market operates freely, disruption follows but, the ultimate winner is the consumer.

"Planning is as natural to the process of success as its absence is to the process of failure."

Robin Sieger

The above is a bit of sophistry to justify planning of any type. The presumption being that all plans are equal and that no plan = to failure. HillaryCare is a plan. It is not a great plan. It solves what SHE perceives to be THE problem. She is curing a symptom. She avoids the root cause. Like most politician she never sees real people. She sees people as needy and herself as provider of solutions. She is not unique in this view. She has 534 fellow citizens on Capitol Hill who got where they are by promising "something-for-nothing" to fools who never realized that "Whenever somebody is getting something for nothing, somebody else is getting nothing for something". Nobody would be elected by telling the truth. People want to believe in the promise of something more than they want something more tangible but less exciting.

President Bush made the right proposal when he sought to level the playing field. Everyone gets $15,000 tax deduction to pay for healthcare. Healthcare provided by employers is taxed as income. This puts the private person, corporate employee, small business person and newly unemployed all on the same footing. The really poor would get a subsidy just as they do now through the Earned Income Tax Credit.

It's a long 13.5 months until we have an election. We have not heard the last of this topic. We will soon be bombarded with fantastic demi-lies and semi-truths. It's up to us to read, listen and decide.... I am already bored. I do not want to wade through all of the verbiage in thick legagese that they will throw at us. I dislike shopping for a new health plan, why would I relish the idea of a few pounds of Political-Legal verbal-ese?.... The fear that they are counting on the weight, obtuse verbiage and deadly dullness to let them slip through some grand scheme...I do not trust those who would be our masters.

Establishment Media

2007-09-20T02:52:00.000Z

I like to read Jay Rosen over at Press Think. He's a smart guy. Uses big words occasionally. Suffers from Bush Derangement Syndrome. A few months back he created a stir by accusing bloggers of being just re-write scamsters and not Real Reporters. Without Establishment Media they wouldn't exist, he claimed.

Most recently he wrote that the White House Press Corp was foolish for flying around with President Bush on the visit to Anbar and ASEAN Economic Conference. He got a reply from a White House Press Corp Member who, for obvious reasons choose to remain anonymous. This led to a series of public exchanges that are fun and well worth the read, if you love newspapers and care about the future of Establishment Media

I made a couple of comments and he took minor umbrage and sent me over to the folks at The Next Hurrah where a similar dialog was taking place.

I couldn't resist responding at both sites. Rosen got my juices flowing, TNH allowed me to expand and state my case for change in Establishment Media before it is gone... I don't ordinarily read such sites. I find personal attacks on the President offensive. I find any personal attacks shallow and boring. It really doesn't matter if the person is a private citizen or public figure. They reflect more on the character of the speaker (writer) than their object.

In the off chance that you wouldn't stumble across their sites or read their posts comments I will take the very tacky step of quoting myself... I urge you to follow the links and read the dialog. Its fun, interesting and shows why Establishment Media is in such a sad state.

There is (almost) no competition in news or reporting. It is in (almost) nobody's financial interest to rock the boat. Owners like profits. Editors like their jobs. Nobody wants to work hard. Politicians need press coverage. Politicians want to be celebrities but are too old and ugly. Choosing one political Party means a politician can look wise (depending on the party) find allies, get their name in the paper and get elected. Being controversial means feeding the press prepared statements. Spin-it, highlight it, give the press a power-point slide show or video... Depending on the party chosen, you the politician will either be attacked or ignored or given glowing praise. The issue is not important. Your mustering of facts are not important. Your veracity are not important. Only Political Party matters for then the Establishment Media know how to slant your story, vet your facts, picture you in front of something important...

Truth is gone. Nowhere in the posts and discussions by Jarvis, Rosen or WHHWWR or here at TNH is there any indication of a quest for truth. Just a "story"... Personality tales will do when there is nothing else or when you get lazy.

The paying public is no longer buying just any old story. We can make up our own. We are as good at plausible scenarios as Hollywood, DC or any Establishment Media fabulist, fabricator, plagarist, enemy propagandist. We buy media and support the advertisers for news. We want the facts as close to the truth as possible. Our trust is being betrayed.

The Establishment Media seldom reports on each other or in competition with any other. Nobody is interested in trying to find a story that the others haven't already covered and vetted. Safety in numbers like a pack of Beagles. No responsibility for getting it wrong. No bonus rewards for getting it first.... Being fed the well spun pablum by the WH and all of Hollywood/DC. The Press follows the President like a pack of well fed Beagles.... The Clinton/Thompson WH media organization was a wonderful manipulation machine. When the "Bimbos" kept erupting, the Press played it down. Chewing more and more spin was easier than fighting for supper.... Lewinski was ignored by the WHPC as long as it could. Same with the Swiftboat claims, the challenge to the Rather/CBS story was ignored for months. Rather/CBS didn't defend themselves or the story with facts. FOX Cable news went first... The seven others followed. Now the Democrat candidates are trying to punish FOX. DO they think we don't notice that seven out of eight TV news channels carry the same stories with the same tilt with interchangeable blow-dry Pretty Faces-? (ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC, PBS, MSNBC, CNBC, and FOX)... Attacking FOX means they MUST be very very powerful... Or maybe they can't be controlled by threats to have their access cut off-? Either way Clinton and Edwards did FOX a great service and showed how tame the rest of the Establishment Media is. The Establishment Media could have had their own "Sister Souljah" moment by standing up and not allowing one of their industry to be censored and bullied... The silence was deafening.

The future of the News Industry is in the hands of Establishment Media... Lord Gnome now has the WSJ and NYPost and the whole NEWS Corp empire.... The NYTimes shareholders and bond holders may start to feel some pain in their wallets... Too bad the Boston Globe is gone... along with many other fine names and great histories... No company deserves to live forever... Betraying the trust of the marketplace is a fast way to vanish. The sad part is They don't go down fighting. They just go down... (K-R, McCormick, etc)

If the President is holding a briefing or interviews with bloggers it would indicate that the Establishment Media is losing its relevance. Quibbling about who or what was said etc ignores the basic point that the time of the single most powerful person on the planet was dedicated to spending a few minutes with heretofore unknown bloggers... Making jokes about whether the President has the mental capacity to hold a detailed conversation insults him, the American People who elected him twice and BOTH Harvard and Yale who awarded him a degree... Such comments (Rosen) only do more to support the notion that bias, hatred, bigotry are endemic in those who profess to seek facts and report the truth...

Being bigoted and biased and opinionated is good when there is competition. The market can decide and choose what it likes. When the voice is the same as seven out of eight TV news outlets and almost all the major print organs, its just cowardly. Speaking out when there is a market penalty is far more dangerous than speaking "what everybody knows to be true"... Rosen, Jarvis and WHHWWR show they do not want truth, they do not know how to compete and they would be much more content if we all would sit down and shut up. It's a nice game. It's also boring.

Brette Harte reported that a miner came to town and lost all his winnings in a crooked game. When asked why he had played, knowing it was crooked, he said "It's the Only Game in Town"... The internet is a disruptive force. It is neither good nor evil. It disrupts established order and changes the marketplace. Just as moveon.org has flown under the radar with little to no Establishment Media inquiries about their management, financiers, friends, etc so too have the bloggers been ignored. There is good reporting going on. Rosen made a lot of headlines attacking those who offer comment and re-casting of Establishment Media. Too bad he couldn't see these free market editors doing for their audiences what the well paid professional editors were not doing. Too bad he fails to notice the real-live reporting that occurs around the blog-O-sphere.

There is more than one game in town and the numbers show the public is aware. The advertisers are following... Last Hurrah-? Not yet, but it's comming soon... and it doesn't have to be... That's the truly sad part.

The Jarvis I refer to is Jeff Jarvis of Buzzmachine.com Another smart guy who occasionally uses big words. He is very New York in his outlook. He's a gentleman who never goes after the personality. I also believe he truly sees the Establishment Media in deep trouble and is concerned.

Hollywood Attacks

2007-09-15T14:16:00.000Z

Until we are able to love ourselves, how can the world love us?

The new fall movies have been announced. Following in the steps of "Valley of the Wolves"

In the noble tradition of mainstream genre cinema, the script takes a real-life event as a starting point and then spins off into Loony-Tunes land. On July 4, 2003, U.S. forces surrounded the HQ of an undercover Turkish unit in Sulaymaniyah, northern Iraq, led its 11 members out with hoods on their heads, and had them deported, even though Turkey was officially an ally in the war. The so-called "Hood Event" was seen by Turks as a national humiliation.

On the one hand, the basic format is peppered with some pure trash-exploitation elements, such as a strung-out U.S.-Jewish doctor (Busey) at Abu Ghraib who's trafficking inmates' organs to London, New York and Tel Aviv. Busey's few scenes -- and the whole tiny, undeveloped subplot -- are disposable.

and the not yet released "Redacted" the private vanity flick funded entirely by billionaire internet dilettante Mark Cuban and directed by Brian de Palma

From its title and intriguing opening (which shows words blacked out on a document by a censor's pen), the film seems determined to explore the repackaging of actual events by official and corporate media. In fact, it does nothing of the kind. From the first sequence, of Latino grunt Angel Salazar (Izzy Diaz) recording his buddies on video camera for a docu ("Tell Me No Lies") he hopes will get him into film school, "Redacted" is much more about the process and techniques of filmmaking than media distortion or coverups.
The breezy Salazar's fellow soldiers in Alfa Company, Camp Carolina, Samarra, fall into the usual stereotypes: bookish Gabe Blix (Kel O'Neill), who spends his time reading John O'Hara's "Appointment in Samarra"; soldier-with-a-conscience McCoy, a lawyer (Rob Devaney); and racist tree-swingers B.B. Rush (Daniel Stewart Sherman) and Reno Flake (Patrick Carroll). Their leader, Master Sgt. James Sweet (Ty Jones), is a motormouth hardass on his third tour of duty
It's soon clear De Palma intends to construct the whole movie from "found footage" -- Salazar's vid diary, security camera tapes, an Arab TV channel, websites (both U.S. and Islamic fundamentalist) or other docus and testimonials.
Drama finally clicks into gear when a car driven by Iraqis doesn't stop at the checkpoint, and Flake and Rush open fire. Even when it turns out the car contains a pregnant woman rushing to get to a hospital (where she subsequently dies), the two soldiers remain unrepentant. In dialogue that sounds too theatrically scripted, Rush contends, "You can't afford remorse. You get remorse, you get weak; you get weak, you die."Violence escalates when the locals take revenge on one of the group, in a well-staged shock sequence. After a night raid on a private house, seen from the p.o.v. of an embedded journalist, and the subsequent media hoo-ha, Flake and Rush pressure the rest of their group to return on a private mission. Secretly helmet-cammed by Salazar, this ends in the horrific rape of a 15-year-girl and the shooting of her and her family.
Ironically, pic's most powerful section is its final 10 minutes, as McCoy's traumatic experience is reduced, back home, to a bar yarn that ends with friends cheering him as a hero. De Palma follows that with a photo montage of real-life Iraqi victims of violence, dubbed "Collateral Damage" -- a harrowing couple of minutes that seems, alas, to be a coda to a better picture than "Redacted."

We have coming first to our TV sets, some of our favorite stars on late night talk shows peddling the flicks, then the various entertainment/celebrity news magazines and cable channels, then the week before they are released we'll get the reviewers comments.

Eventually we'll be allowed to see, "The Kingdom" staring Jamie Foxx as leader of an FBI antiterrorist team;"Lions for Lambs" with Tom Cruise playing a Senator making foreign policy; "Charlie Wilson's War" with Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts; "The Valley of Elah" starring Tommy Lee Jones; ." Battle for Haditha" by Nick Bloomfield and Grace is Gone" by James C. Strouse.

Hollywood is taking advantage of the lame-duck Presidency, the 2008 election cycle and the background noise about the war in Iraq to fill it's wallet. The movies will be released in the fall with all the noise and attention that a Hollywood movie generates. Then in the Spring we will get the Academy Awards, presented again by Jon Stewart. and in the fall, just in time for the actual voting we'll get the DVD releases.

Todd McCarthy observes in Variety:

Just as, during World War II, Hollywood pictures had a unified aim, to rally viewers around the war effort and present an image of the Allies prevailing, today they are also identical in nature, except in the opposite direction.
The first problem is that fictional films take at least a year, sometimes two, to create and disseminate, and thus the attitudes they reflect can be a bit stale at a time when events move so quickly (even if, alas, the war is still very much with us).
When someone like Richard Gere spouts off about Bush at the Venice Film Festival, as he just did, how much more tired can you get? Being anti-Bush simply isn't enough, as this point; there's an election coming up, a future to decide, complex issues to sort out, and Bush won't be part of the equation.
Where current events are concerned, documentaries are far better equipped to tackle them than are fictional features. The film of the year for me in many ways is "No End in Sight," a profoundly analytical, meticulously methodical and rewardingly specific study of where the U.S. went wrong once it achieved military victory in Iraq; it was the film I'd long been waiting for after the emotional hysteria of "Fahrenheit 9/11" and its ilk.
Now that the vast majority of Americans have misgivings, at the very least, about the Iraq adventure, producers are betting that mainstream audiences may be ready, up to a point, for the homefront stories of mangled, maimed and disturbed vets and their families. But the overt polemics of most of the Iraq films thus far, such as those expressed so predictably at the end of "In the Valley of Elah," seem calculated to once again stir up the Cindy Sheehan crowd, to preach to the converted of four years ago. Move on, indeed. (Emphasis added)

Following the pattern of "Constant Campaigning" set by the Clinton White House, Hollywood has found that they can play politics and increase box office to everyone's benefit. Politicians need the attention and money that celebrities can bring. Hollywood needs the political stew to bring the stories that will guarantee box office success.

"Wag the Dog" was not about a President hiding a scandal behind an international incident. It was about Hollywood (the tail) wagging the dog (the President). George Bush has not been as good for Hollywood. He has committed no scandals. He has not tolerated any lapses among the administration. He has not given any basis for believing that he would go nuts and blow things up, get bogged down in minor indiscretions that would lead to an escalating series of violent acts to cover up, or leave his wife for another woman or intern. He is not a drunk, an addict, a predator. His wife is none of those things either. The Bushes is boring in the best possible way.

Hollywood cannot wait for him to leave. They want another Clinton White House. Scandals, screw-ups, firings, tax increases, inflation all mean better financial times for Hollywood. (Inflation will drive up the value of the assets collateralizing their loans and make it easier for people to pay more than $7-$9 dollars for a seat.) Threats of war with Russia or China will make good movie backdrops. Terrorist attacks will drive people to escapist fare. Steady headlines will mean steady box office. Hillary or Obama either one fits a preset Hollywood stereo type and will be just bad enough to generate 1,000 story and plot lines. They'll back both. But eventually Hillary will get their support because the Clinton's are a known factor. They are safe box office. Obama may not be the kind of greedy grasping weasel that Hollywood can trust to keep the spin machinery going.

What the world thinks of America will be driven by these movies. People will sit in darkened theaters watching our movies and believing they are reflection of real life and real Americans. They have been doing this for over 90 years. Michael Moore's "Fareheit 9/11" grossed over $222 million. Since then, the current administration has been -THE- target for profits.

Of course, another terrorist attack and the mood of the nation may swing back in support of the one who has kept us safe for over six years. There is also the possibility that the nation will become tired of being force fed all the anti-war propaganda.

That would fly in the face of the famous Mencken quote "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the American boobsousie". Our appetite for celebrity seemingly knows no limit. Our ability to concentrate and think about an issue can not gain attention for any period of time. Maybe we are as naive and foolish as H.L. Mencken and Mark Twain described us.

Hollywood wants a "sure thing" and is not beyond cooking the books, manipulating the politicians and public opinion to get ever more profits. I doubt we'll ever see a movie with that plot line... Even Joel Surnow, the director of "24", would not bite the hands that feed him so very well.

As Brett Harte wrote about the man who when asked why he had gone to gamble knowing the cardroom cheated. The man replied "It's the only game in town."

If the public decides that Hollywood is at war with them and begins to reject the movies it will mean bad things for Democrats. If the public decides that the Democrats are too shrill, too childish and incapable of being trusted with power, Hollywood could suffer. Large bets by both Hollywood and the Democrats. could tempt some weaker souls. Is it really the "Only Game in Town" ?

Political Bits

2007-09-15T01:14:00.000Z

"The mind thinks, not with data, but with ideas whose creation and elaboration cannot be reduced to a set of predictable values."

Theodore Roszak

White House Press Corpse?

Jay Rosen of Press Think having fired off his annoyances about the coverage of the Bush visit to Anbar and the rest of the world hears back from someone inside the WH Briefing room who wishes to remain anonymous.

Person who wrote to me is for real. Has one of the seats. Does not want to be named. I don't generally run things like that. But this is straight from the briefing room to correct PressThink on a few items. So I found a way.
I’m writing in response to your post about the president’s trip to Iraq, and some additional thoughts that you shared about covering this White House. After reading your column, I sent a somewhat heated email to a friend who’s a press critic — and a long-time reader of your columns on HuffPost and Press Think — and he suggested I reach out to you directly.

Excellent.

First, I have to tell you that your suggestion that the White House press corps - or its “pool” representatives - not cover the president when he goes into a war zone struck me as curious.

Why?

Well, there are two phrases that I’d like to pass along to your readers. They mean more or less the same thing. “Body watch” means covering an event that will produce zero news on its own because you need to make sure the president doesn’t collapse. The other is SSRO — “suddenly shots rang out” — which is basically equivalent, just a bit more dramatic.

I think melodramatic would be right.

They continue in that vein... What is overlooked from both professional journalists is that the WH Press Corp and the institutional machinery made a lot of money for the media during the Clintonian years. Clinton had a scandal, charges, photo op, or defense going anew every week for almost 8 years. The Nightly Leno?Letterman/Stewart combo got laughs with easy tawdry jokes. The WH Press Corp and the broadcast media were well fed They wealthy and several news journalists got promoted during those years. Any reporter that failed to toe the Clinton-Line was not-so-carefully removed from the list of invitees. Being on the out means no stories, no questions asked or answered, no promotions and no more paycheck. Like well fed dogs, the WH Press Corp grew fat and lazy on the constant diet of high calorie campaign-style propaganda. This came in very handy when the Clinton Presidency was threatened. Suddenly, the Press realized that the train might stop. By ignoring, spinning, slanting and defending the Clintons they could milk it for a few more years. They did and they did. They lost their hunger, their fangs and their claws. Like cut-cats they could only sit and stare.

Now Rosen finds it boring that so many resources are wasted on the Bush WH travels. They could simply see him off and then have the local reporter or stringer at the destination pick-up and watch for the bullets to fly or body to fall... Bush is boring. He keeps his promises. He loves his wife. He keeps normal hours. He does his job and goes home. Therefore, the Press could do the same. That is at-odds with the post-Watergate, every moment a leak, a cover-up, a scandal brewing, a Pulitzer, a book, a movie deal, mentality... Now they have to settle down and do a regular work week and grub for promotions and pay raises just like regular folks. Its been a long seven years.

Would the Press pump it up for another Clinton WH-? 1992-2016 would make a long and satisfying career as a journo. A book or movie would surely be possible from all those scandals. A satisfying pension would be assured. And it would all arrive spoon fed, pre-chewed and ready for typing, or re-write as they used to call it. No thinking, no analysis, no digging for facts or even fact checking, just re-type what the WH Press Secretary presents and head off for few drinks. "Nice work if you can get it and you can get it if you try" says the old song.

The Washington Way
Washington hates revolution and fears revolutionaries more than it hates "leaders". They prefer "evolution". Never Say "No". Never say "yes". Never block anything. Slow progress at all times. (aka "Slow Rolling") Don't rock the boat, don't upset anyone. Never challenge a decision until the decision maker has retired. Check all the facts. Get all the answers. Look at it from all angles. Consider all the options and consequences (especially whose ox might get gored). Then pass it along to the next level for a repeat of the cycle and updating of the information. It's called "I 'm having a career". Never get fired. Slowly get promoted. Get nice health and pension. The rest of the world calls it "Retired In Place (R.I.P.)" Would the WH Press Corp be immune to seeking evolution over revolution for themselves?

I find it easier to see them as humans seeking a life and trying for a career than as noble enlightened beings who take small wages to be disrespected by those they cover as they pursue truth, only truth.

NYTimes Discovers Ad Marketing Strategy At Long Last.

The WSJ www.OpinionJournal.com today asks

Tailgunner Joan Flies Standby
Yesterday we wondered if the New York Times had made an illegal campaign contribution to the MoveOn.org political action committee. The Times, you'll recall, published a full-page ad Monday in which it attacked Gen. David Petraeus in McCarthyite terms. The New York Post reported that the Times had given MoveOn.org a $102,000 discount from its usual $167,000 rate--which, if true, would be an illegal in-kind contribution under campaign finance laws.
The Times offers this explanation in a news story today:

Catherine J. Mathis, a spokeswoman for The New York Times Company, said the advertising department does not base its rates on political content. She also said the department does not disclose the rates it charges for individual advertisements. But she did say that "similar types of ads are priced in the same way." She said the department charges advocacy groups $64,575 for full-page, black-and-white advertisements that run on a "standby" basis, meaning an advertiser can request a specific day and placement but is not guaranteed them.
In other words, the Times prices ads similarly to the way airlines price seats: Not everyone pays full fare, and you can get a deep discount if you are flexible. That allows the paper to sell space that might otherwise go unsold. Assuming that this is all on the up-and-up, there's no legal problem, any more than there is if a campaign pays less than full fare for a plane ticket.
But wait. This was a very time-sensitive ad. For it to have the desired effect (or, as actually happened, to backfire spectacularly), it pretty much had to run Monday. Under such circumstances, why would MoveOn buy an ad without guaranteed placement? That would be like flying standby to your own wedding

They ask many intelligent questions about pricing, space availability on a date propitious to the ad, etc. But acknowledge that the NYTimes has the right to sell their ad space for whatever rate they choose.

It is the view of this column that the Times should be able to sell ads to whomever it wishes under whatever terms it wishes. But we live in an era of heavy regulation of campaign speech, thanks in part to the persuasive efforts of the New York Times. It does not seem too much to ask that the New York Times Co. adhere, with transparency and integrity, to the high standards its editorialists seek to impose by law on everyone else.

Rudy Guilani quickly took advantage of the special rate and placed an ad challenging Hillary for not rebuking www.moveon.org for the ad. "If you can't stand up to your own party, how can you stand up to foreign terrorists?" or words to that effect. At least her husband had the cojones to have his "Sister Souljah" moment. Hillary still hides behind the "Swiftboat defense"... Of course, she promised that she would not be "Swiftboated" by the opposition. It probably never seemed likely that she would be among the first voices in defending the right of a PAC to say anything no matter how outrageous, vile, or truthful. I wonder how she will respond to revelations next year?

In all things Presidential; Character Matters. Hillary has shown none.

Presidential Character

Captain Ed over at Captains Quarters has a report and some comments on Hillary's campaign hiring Sandy Berger

You can tell a man who boozes,
by the company he chooses ...
and the pig got up and slowly walked away.

The poem by Clarke Van Ness warns people that they will be judged by the actions of those with whom they choose to associate -- and even a pig has enough sense to walk away from disaster. Hillary Clinton has a big problem with her associates, and it's self-inflicted. Lost in the Norman Hsu shuffle, the news that Hillary has asked former Clinton national-security adviser Sandy Berger to join her campaign should cause even more questions about her judgment and her ethics:

The more experienced Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, has relied largely on her husband and a triumvirate of senior officials from his presidency—former secretary of state Madeleine Albright, former U.N. ambassador Richard Holbrooke and former national-security adviser Sandy Berger (who tries to keep a low profile after pleading guilty in 2005 to misdemeanor charges of taking classified material without authorization).
Berger didn't just commit some technical violation, either. He went to the National Archives on behalf of Bill Clinton as part of the investigation of the 9/11 attacks. While there, he deliberately hid highly classified material in his socks to avoid detection and dropped them under a trailer on a break. Later, he retrieved the material and took it home, and wound up destroying the evidence while his nation tried to find as much material on Clinton-era counterterrorism efforts in order to better protect ourselves in the future.
We now have two examples of Hillary Clinton associating herself with people of low character and criminal behavior. Unlike the pig in the song, Hillary not only has not removed herself from the gutter, she seems to be encouraging the ethically challenged to join her there.
Richard Miniter has more personal recollections of Berger's efforts to keep the Clinton errors quiet. He also ends with a very pertinent question:

My informed sources suggest that what Berger destroyed were copies of the Millennium After-Action Review, a binder-sized report prepared by Richard Clarke in 2000—a year and half before the 9-11 attacks. The review made a series of recommendations for a tougher stance against bin Laden and terrorism. There are 13 or more copies of this report. But only one contains hand-written notes by President Bill Clinton. Apparently, in the margin beside the recommendations, Bill Clinton wrote NO, NO, NO next to many of the tougher policy proposals. ...
Did she bring him aboard to reward him for his criminal destruction of classified material? Or did she sign him up because of his stellar record in fighting bin Laden in the late 1990s?

Captain Ed also has lots of coverage on Norman Hsu. Scroll down his link for details

Hillary's Presidency is not assured. It certainly looks that way from time to time. She has all the money in the world. She has all the Media and Media Stars supporting her. She would be guaranteed an Emmy, an Oscar, a Tony or even an MTV award if she was only a candidate.

There is still time for her to screw things up. Her inner shrew is barely below the surface. Her brittle, controlling, demanding persona is evident. Her choices in the people who surround her leaves much to be disrespect. She does not come across as a trustworthy person.

I believe that ultimately the American people want someone they can trust to do the right thing when nobody is looking. They do not want a President whose character came directly from the screenplay of "24".

I also do not dismiss her husband's ability to screw it up for her. He shows up at her speeches and sucks the attention away from her. Who remembers her when he is on stage. When they are together, she is the "Little Woman" and he is "The Lovable Rascal". I am not convinced that he would allow her to succeed where he failed. Altho his fingerprints would never appear on anything.

UPDATE:

Brenden Miniter has some thoughts on why Hillary may have problems with women voters over her abortion positions (video link)... There will be more spculation and reading of tea leaves regarding Hillary's appeal to women voters to come in weeks and months ahead. It's still 14 months until the election.

Women, Politics, Real Issues

2007-09-07T20:03:00.000Z

"Thinking is the desire to gain reality by means of ideas."

José Ortega y Gasset

A sentiment I can champion...besides it's a pleasant way to spend the weekend.

In S.F. visit, Obama takes aim at Clinton's strength: women's votes

Sen. Barack Obama's appearance in San Francisco today is designed to attack a key strength of his prime rival for the Democratic presidential nomination: former first lady and current New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's support from women of all backgrounds.

Hundreds of women are expected to pay anywhere from $250 to $2,300 to meet Obama at a lunch at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium, and he'll speak at a $25-a-head event after the lunch.

On Saturday night, the Illinois senator's outreach to female voters gets another boost: Talk show host Oprah Winfrey, America's most successful female entrepreneur and opinion-maker, is the host for an A-list fundraiser for the senator at her estate in Montecito (Santa Barbara County).
We all have a sense of pride in the fact that a woman is being taken seriously," Harris said. "Hillary is obviously appealing to anybody who cares about having have equal opportunity for women, and all of us applaud her candidacy."

But, she said, "support for Barack isn't denying that or exclusive of that fact."

Harris said Obama has shown "a proven commitment to women and women's issues. ... He's pro-choice, pro-public education and pro-immigrant." (Oh Really-? ed.)
Mack now heads Obama's grassroots Sacramento effort - spending her weekends canvassing, calling voters and raising money for her candidate.

"As much as I would like to have a woman president, I want to have the right woman," she said.

Stephanie Chan, 20, a junior at UC Berkeley, was spurred by Obama's candidacy to become involved for the first time in a presidential campaign.

"I've heard things like, 'Hillary is a woman, you should be in her camp,' " Chan said. "She's an amazing woman and a great candidate, but for me, Obama is the candidate who brings it all together." (oh-oh... Scroll down to follow -ed.)
Chick, the Los Angeles controller, said many women are "tired of hearing about women's issues - because I believe our issues are human issues, universal issues."

"Half of the kids we bear are boys," she said. "Women's issues are everybody's issues - and I believe that Barack, as a candidate, speaks to all of these issues equally as well as Hillary."

Read the whole thing: Follow the links and read the story, then the comments. The SF Chronicle blog 2Cents has some more SF Bay Area views. There is something happening here. It looks like a ground swell or earthquake that may break apart the Hillary Foundations and assumptions of her slow walk to a coronation. If this most Liberal Bastion can look around and if Oprah can shift some of the quieter Hollywood types into action... We may have a horse race. That means we'll see more of Hubba-Hubba-Bubba. We'll get to watch her flail about as he makes her look small and very un-Presidential. Presidential-level experience means running your own campaign

Kimberly Strassel has some answers from the other side of the aisle

What Women Want
How the GOP can woo the ladies.
(I liked Republicans better in blue. But since some TV twit declared red states Republican... I'll post some extensive points from this editorial. It's good. It's smart. It resonates with the women in my household. -ed.)

Expect to hear a lot about lady voters over the next few months, though most of it from Democrats. Women make up 60% of the left's primary electorate, and the front-runners are already going to the mat for their vote. It's why Ms. Clinton has six full-time staffers for women's outreach; why Mr. Obama sports a women's "policy committee"; and why Bill Richardson recently told a cheering mob that "women are better workers than men" (you go, Bill!).

The Democrats' own views of what counts for "women's issues" are stuck back in the disco days, about the time Ms. Clinton came of political age. Under the title "A Champion for Women," the New York senator's Web site promises the usual tired litany of "equal pay" and a "woman's right to choose." Mr. Richardson pitches a new government handout for women on "family leave" and waxes nostalgic for the Equal Rights Amendment. Give these Boomers some bell bottoms and "The Female Eunuch," and they'd feel right at home. Polls show Ms. Clinton today gets her best female support from women her age and up.
The rest of the female population has migrated into 2007. Undoubtedly quite a few do care about abortion rights and the Violence Against Women Act. But for the 60% of women who today both scramble after a child and hold a job, these culture-war touchpoints aren't their top voting priority. Their biggest concerns, not surprisingly, hew closely to those of their male counterparts: the war in Iraq, health care, the economy. But following close behind are issues that are more unique to working women and mothers. Therein rests the GOP opportunity.
Ms. Clinton likes to bang on about "inequality" in pay. The smart conservative would explain to a female audience that there indeed is inequality, and that the situation is grave. Only the bad guy isn't the male boss; it's the progressive tax code.
Most married women are second-earners. That means their income is added to that of their husband's, and thus taxed at his highest marginal rate. So the married woman working as a secretary keeps less of her paycheck than the single woman who does the exact same job. This is the ultimate in "inequality," yet Democrats constantly promote the very tax code that punishes married working women. In some cases, the tax burdens and child-care expenses for second-earners are so burdensome they can't afford a career. But when was the last time a Republican pointed out that Ms. Clinton was helping to keep ladies in the kitchen?
Should President Bush's tax cuts expire, tens of thousands of middle-class women will see more of their paychecks disappear into the maw of their husband's higher bracket. A really brave candidate would go so far as to promise eliminating this tax bias altogether. Under a flat tax, second-earner women would pay the same rate as unmarried women and the guy down the hall.
Ask almost any working woman what the toughest part of her life is, and she'll say the complications of scheduling both work and family life. What makes that task so tough is a dusty piece of legislation called the 1938 Fair Labor Standards Act, which requires that hourly workers who put in more than 40 hours a week get overtime. Some women like overtime. But in a 1995 poll, an extraordinary 81% said they'd prefer compensatory time off. Put another way, many women would like to pack 45 hours into the first four days of work, then knock off early on Friday
The mod term for this is "flex time" and Democrats pay it lip service. But what the left won't mention--and Republicans have failed to mention--is that Democrats are the obstacle to changing the overtime law. Organized labor likes the 40-hour-week law, and union leaders prefer to be the ones to arrange any flex-time agreements on behalf of their members. So in 1997, when Republican Sen. John Ashcroft put forward legislation to allow flexible scheduling in the private workforce, it was Democrats, at the beck of unions, who killed it
The majority of health-care decisions are made by women, yet neither Rudy Giuliani nor Mitt Romney has explained how their innovative proposals to put individuals back in charge of care would help women in particular. No candidate has explained that only through private Social Security accounts will women ever see the full fruits of their payroll taxes.

Read the whole editorial. I like smart well written articles. This one is very good-! It's also free.

Have a good weekend-! Take the family somewhere fun.

iSteve Legacy Issues

2007-09-07T02:19:00.000Z

"To make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe."

Carl Sagan Not iSteve Jobs, but I couldn't resist.
I'm sure from where he sits it looks like he did

When you're small and nobody cares, you don't have an installed base. You don't have a large group of competitors and customers who watch your every move. You don't have to pay attention to the past because everyone in the cult is focusd on the future. The "Next Great Thing" is coming around the corner and altho it will wipe out all the investment in the old now not-so Great Things Eeveryone will be greatful because its all "so cool"... At least that's the way it used to work. But back then, you weren't jerking your market of early adopters and newly loyal fans with 20% price reductions within 90 days of introduction. One sure way to slow the cult movement towards their wallets for the "Next Great Thing" is to make a substantial portion feel like fools for being an early adopter. The market quickly learns that when discounts are coming, wait for them. (GM-FORD-CHRYSLER can teach some lessons on inventory and discount management. if they every learned em.)

Life in the big leagues was never easy. Guerrillas are always the small, quick and sexy guys who have to stay one-step ahead otherwise they get crushed. Leaning how to be a major brand with a large legacy and install base is gonna be akward... Luckily, the folks at One Infinite Loop are so much smarter than anybody. except possibly those at the "Do No Evil Empire"...

Apple CEO Jobs offers early iPhone buyers a $100 credit

September 6, 2007 (09-06) 04:00 PDT (09-06) CUPERTINO -- Apple CEO Steve Jobs, flooded with e-mails from angry customers after the company lopped $200 off the price of the iPhone just two months after its premiere, on Thursday apologized to early buyers and offered them a $100 credit.

In an open letter on Apple's Web site, Jobs said that even though price drops are a reality in the personal technology world, the company is going to make sure it takes care of existing customers, even as it pursues new users with the aggressive price reduction. "We want to do the right thing for our valued iPhone customers," Jobs wrote. "We apologize for disappointing some of you, and we are doing our best to live up to your high expectations of Apple."

IPhone buyers will be eligible for a $100 credit good toward the purchase of any product at any Apple store or at Apple's online store. Jobs said more details will be released next week. Apple's surprise decision to lower the price of the iPhone was a move to "go for it" for the holidays, said Jobs, in an attempt to attract customers.

The price cut came during a press event Wednesday in which Jobs introduced a touch-screen iPod similar to the iPhone along with a revamped iPod Nano. Jobs also said Apple is discontinuing its 4-GB iPhone.

But why can't iSteve seem share any of the charisma-? Valley fever, jealousy or is the slightly dangerous Guerrilla Markeeter really THAT much better than everyone else?

CIOs Uncensored: When It Comes To IT, Cool Is As Cool Does
Sure, Steve Jobs is the King of Cool--but cool is as cool does.Is IT cool?

After you've finished guffawing, consider this: Why is Apple's Steve Jobs the king of cool, but very little of that tech glitz and glamour seems to rub off on IT?

The "Transaction Apple" makes everyone pay for the small bites they take as it bobs in the ocean of data. 20 years ago, I was engaged in a deep discussion on the future of business economics and business cycles. His argument that the world was moving to rental fees and transaction costs seemed absurd, to me at the time.

How could we move from equity and ownership to share croppers and tenant farmers in the IT and service industry fields-? How would we surrender the hard earned freedoms and liberties that came from property ownership to the movable masses that can be casually disregarded by the rulers of the realm... He was right... I'm not yet entirely wrong. But it may be coming soon.

New devices should help Apple continue its dominance

You gotta love the people at Apple. They get the country all hopped up on iPhone madness and then just when you think they can't keep it going, they do just that.
IPhone: The $200 price cut on the iPhone was bigger and came sooner than I imagined. It sort of makes sense, though. If you're going to put out a 16-GB iPod Touch for $399, you don't want it cutting into potential iPhone sales. Here, they make the iPhone attractive at $399 for people who want a cell phone/iPod and are prepared to make the jump to AT&T. And for those who don't, you get an iPod that gives you a lot of the same pizzazz and more capacity but doesn't force you to leave your carrier.
IPod Nano: I got a chance to take home one of the thin iPod Nanos. It's the same size overall as the old Nano, but the front edges are tapered all the way around, giving the whole thing a softer look.

And the video playback is quite nice. I'm not sure I'd want to watch a movie on it, but it's pretty good. Not ideal because of the size, but very bright and serviceable. And the new interface is a nice touch. The pane on the right side allows you to peek at the cover art as it sort of floats by.

IPod Touch: The Touch is about 3 millimeters thinner than the iPhone and it really does feel svelte. The construction is a little different from the iPhone, with the familiar shiny stainless steel of the old iPod on the back. The bezel on the front is more pronounced and looks more like a dark gray carbon rather than the stainless steel halo that surrounds the iPhone.
ITunes Wi-Fi Music Store: The iTunes Wi-Fi Music Store is one of those nice things we hoped for but weren't exactly sure we'd see. But it's cool that you can now download music when you're out and about.

You still have to find a Wi-Fi hotspot, but now with the partnership with Starbucks, that shouldn't be too hard. You can't download videos, but you do get access to iTunes' 6 million songs.

Apple people have been touting the PC download model as the only thing going, so it's nice to see them embrace Wi-Fi downloads.

HD Radio

Apple is working with iPod dock makers JBL and Polk on a system that allows anything heard on an HD Radio/iPod dock system to be tagged and sent to an iPod, which will later be transferred to iTunes. Once on iTunes, a playlist is presented where users can purchase any tracks they heard while listening to HD Radio. iBiquity will be working with HD Radio stations to make this iTunes Tagging an industry-wide standard.

Polk will release the i-Sonic ES2 iPod dock first which will feature the Tag button, followed by the JBl iHD this holiday season. There are plans for Tag buttons to be placed in cars and more iPod docks in 2008.
Here's how it works: iTunes Tagging enables consumers using HD Radio receivers that have been equipped with a special 'Tag' button, to tag songs that they hear on the FM dial. Information about these tagged songs is then stored by the receiver and transferred to the individual's iPod. When the iPod is connected to a computer, the new iTunes software automatically presents the songs in a Tagged playlist so that the consumer can preview, buy and download them
"iTunes tagging takes music discovery on the radio to the next level," said Greg Joswiak, Apple's vice president of iPod Product Marketing. "When a song plays on your HD Radio that you like, a simple push of a button will tag it and later give you the chance to preview, purchase, and enjoy it with iTunes and your iPod."

Rob Struble, CEO of iBiquity Digital, the developer of HD Radio technology, said, "Research consistently shows that radio is the predominant source of music discovery. Now, with iTunes Tagging, HD Radio technology provides a cool new way to capture the songs listeners discover, buy them on iTunes and then enjoy them. We are especially pleased that so many broadcasters came together so quickly for the initial launch." Several major broadcasters will implement iTunes Tagging, initially across hundreds of stations. Additional stations and broadcast groups are expected to join soon, with a formal announcement of participating groups planned for later this year at the NAB Radio convention, September 26 - 28.

Thanks to the DMCA and the RCAA... Apple Profits will remain high... Of course, should you lose your machine or upgrade or even choose to deal with another equipment maker or artists outside the RCAA Plantation...well, live will be a bit more difficult. Just a little bit.

A reasonable debate about royalties and fees in a competitive world would be much better than the high-priced lobbyist shackles that were given to the high-priced help on Capital Hill. A rigged game is better than an open market anytime... Especially when you're the one doing the rigging.

The "Do-No-Evil Empire" says "all your data is ours"... iSteve says "all your entertainment is ours" both want only a small transaction fee for their trouble... Their property rights and equity ownership will make them rich. You-? You get to keep working.... tug the forelock when they pass...it doesn't bother them but it will remind you who is the master and who pays the rents and who collects them.

Will we surrender our other property rights as easily?

Your list of lost liberties and rights might be interesting....

iSteve

2007-09-05T20:42:00.000Z

YESTERDAY

What news awaits the Apple faithful?
Speculation centers on redesigned iPods, expanded content offerings on iTunes

Just two months after the release of the iPhone, which Steve Jobs proclaimed was the best iPod ever, Apple is expected to reveal Wednesday how it plans to move the iPod line forward. The company has summoned reporters and analysts to San Francisco's Moscone Center for an event, the invitations for which feature an image from Apple's iPod advertising. The event has generated a great deal of interest among Apple devotees, especially after the successful introduction of the iPhone. The timing is also good for Apple, which hasn't overhauled the standard iPod or the iPod Nano in almost two years.

TODAY

Apple to upgrade iPod line, nano gets video
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Apple Inc Chief Executive Steve Jobs unveiled new iPod models on Wednesday including an iPod nano, which stores songs and photos on flash memory chips instead of a hard drive, that now will play video and games.

Apple unveils new iPods, ringtones, Wi-Fi iTunes store

(09-05) 12:21 PDT SAN FRANCISCO -- Apple CEO Steve Jobs delivered a bounty of music news Wednesday, introducing a new multi-touch iPod similar to the iPhone, slashing the price of the iPhone by $200 and announcing a new Wi-Fi iTunes music store that allows users to download music at various locations, including Starbucks stores.

The iPod Nano also got a major face lift, with a 2-inch screen for the first time on a wider body. The Nano will now be able to play video on a super bright screen with 320 x 240 resolution. The Nano features a new user interface that includes a pane on the right that shows cover art and preview pictures that slowly float around. A 4GB Nano will sell for $149, while an 8GB version will sell for $199.

New Apple iPod Nano Has 2.5-Inch Screen

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Apple Inc. CEO Steve Jobs unveiled new versions of the company's market-leading iPod media player Wednesday, including an iPod Nano with a 2.5-inch screen for watching movies and playing games.
"It's incredibly tiny. It's incredibly thin," Jobs said of the new Nano, which features a 320-by-240-pixel screen.
The new Nano, which will be in stores starting this weekend, will come in two models: a 4-gigabyte version for $149, and an 8-gigabyte version for $199.
Apple also announced it will be selling ring tones for its iPhone for 99 cents, plus the 99-cent cost of the song. Ring tones from more than 500,000 songs available on iTunes will go on sale next week.

MORE APPLE ROUND UP

Apple Cancels NBC Fall TV Lineup On iTunes

The rift was based on a doubling of the wholesale price Apple pays for each NBC TV episode.

The rift, which encompasses all NBCU news, sports and entertainment

programming, means Apple may no longer offer the network's videos on the online store after the current contract expires in December. Apple said it decided not to offer the network's new shows in September, in order to avoid disappointing iTunes customers by having to pull the shows mid-season.
"We are disappointed to see NBC leave iTunes because we would not agree to their dramatic price increase," Eddy Cue, Apple's vice president of iTunes, said in a statement. "We hope they will change their minds and offer their TV shows to the tens of millions of iTunes customers."
The dramatic increase was a doubling of the wholesale price Apple pays for each NBC TV episode. That would have resulted in iTunes customers paying $4.99 per episode instead of the current $1.99. Agreeing to such an increase would have placed Apple in an awkward position with ABC, CBS, Fox, The CW, and more than 50 cable networks that have agreed to sell their TV shows from the upcoming season at the lower price.
Apple is sure to feel the loss of NBC Universal, which provided three of iTunes' 10 best selling TV shows last season, according to Apple. Those shows accounted for 30% of iTunes' TV show sales. The New York Times, which was the first to report the NBCU-Apple troubles, said NBC Universal, which is part of General Electric, accounts for 40% of digital video downloads on the Apple online store. Among NBCU's popular shows on iTunes is "Battlestar Galactica," "Heroes," and "The Office."
NBC is not the first major iTunes supplier to bang heads with Apple over pricing. Universal Music Group, owned by Vivendi, refused to renew its contract with Apple in July, saying it would sell music on iTunes at will. This gives Universal the option of removing songs from the store on short notice.

Eric Zeeman Reports: iPhone Impresses Europeans. Almost.

Not all of them, obviously, but during my tip to London this week anyone within sight of my iPhone sidled up next to me quickly for a demonstration of how it worked. There were lots of oohs and aahs, quickly followed by bahs.

Quite honestly, I was trying to be as secretive with it as possible. I didn't want to create a mob scene or anything. But people are eagle-eyed, and anytime I retrieved it from my pocket, someone was quick to notice and ask what it was. Many thought it was the LG Prada at first. When I told them it was an iPhone, they nearly all asked to take a look. I obliged.

me. The E61i has a 2100 MHz WCDMA radio in it, and I was able to browse at blazing fast 3G speeds over the Vodafone network. The difference was striking.

So to return to a point I brought up several months ago, will Apple really sell that many iPhones in Europe when there are so many faster handsets available?

I guess we'll find out soon enough, as it appears Apple and several European carriers are set to announce its availability.

Mitch Wagner Reports: Letting Crazy People Set Intellectual-Property Policy

The New York Times reported that NBC will not renew its distribution agreement with iTunes when it comes due in December. Among the terms NBC wants: Tougher digital rights management -- this despite the fact that it's been demonstrated, over and over again, that DRM doesn't work, can't be made to work, and any beliefs to the contrary are simply delusional.

InformationWeek contributor Cory Doctorow describes how the Science Fiction and Fantasy Writers of America (SFWA) sent a broad takedown notice to scribd, a text-filesharing site, demanding that scribd remove a huge number of files. The problem, says Cory, is that the takedown notice is simply wrong. It includes works that are in the public domain, works that are licensed under Creative Commons, recommended reading lists, the back issues of a magazine, Ray Gun Revival, posted to scribd by the magazine's publishers -- and Doctorow's own novel, Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom, which Doctorow released under Creative Commons. SFWA appears to be behaving like a vigilante who, in the name of stopping violent crime, shoots up a whole subway car. Doctorow notes that, by misrepresenting itself as an authorized agent of copyright holders, SFWA has exposed itself to enormous legal liability.

Viacom sent a takedown notice to North Carolina school board candidate Christopher Knight for posting a copy of a Viacom-owned VH1 clip to YouTube. The VH1 clip was a commentary on a TV commercial Knight created to support his political candidacy. Viacom is claiming that Knight pirated the VH1 clip -- when in fact, says Knight, Viacom are the pirates here; they used Knight's original political commercial without his permission.
When are we going to put greedy children like NBC, SFWA, and Viacom down for nap-time, and let grownups start writing intellectual property policy?

Unfortunately, Congress does not care about good legislation. They want nice sounding titles on the bills they pass. They want everyone to think them noble and responsible for the titles. They also want the money from donations that follow the legislation, that they didn't read, which screws the competition and rewards those who pay the lobbyists (yes, NGO's, Public Interest Groups, as well as the Evil Businessmen )

The reason so much money is in politics is because Congress rewards or punishes those who don't pay up. Corruption always raises prices...

Holly-Weenie-world

2007-09-03T18:12:00.000Z

Pat Dollard (Follow the link, read his stuff) reveals the man behind the most recent "sliming" of American troops in the new movie "Redacted".... The one that upset all the viewers in Venice, Italy at the recent film festival and made headlines around the world (Thank you AP and Reuters)....

The latest Bourne flick was a slightly subtle attack on the CIA and American intelligence agencies... The next few months will see a lot of anti-Bush/anti-war movies coming out... The goal is to hit the theaters now, before the January/February Primaries. Then to hit the award shows that occupy the TV during the Spring. Then to hit the DVD and rental release markets, with attendant publicity in the weeks leading up to the November, 2008 election. They want to bang the gong three times and make America afraid, ashamed, and weaker on the world stage... The problem is that, now, we face an enemy that seeks our destruction and enslavement. Its not just a bunch of noisy "useful idiots" that must be indulged by a wealthy nation that is busy earning money.

Before this report, I had considered Mark Cuban another of the Silicon Valley dilettantes who were smart enough to be in the right place and lucky enough to bail out early with a bag of cash, but who was now a lost child trying to show the world that it was his native genius and not plain-dumb-luck... Like a lottery winner saying "It was my brilliance that knew the right numbers"

Billionaire Mark Cuban has decided to put all of his weight behind a campaign to smear US troops in Iraq as “monsters’. Cuban has decided that De Palma’s film “Redacted” must be seen as the cornerstone of his and De Palma’s self-declared anti-victory campaign against America and her troops fighing in Iraq. Cuban’s company Magnolia Pictures will be bringing this propganda campaign to a theater near you this winter. According to a source close to Cuban, the decision for Magnolia to develop, finance and distribute the film was personally made by Çuban. Cuban has a full producer credit on the film, and DePalma shot it on HiDef video at Cuban’s request, in order for it to qualify as fodder for Cuban’s hi-def cable channel. So far neither he or DePalma have explained how they can be “bringing the truth of the Iraq war to the American people”, as Louie DePalma has said, when neither of them have ever been to Iraq, filmed any of “Redacted” in Iraq, or spent one minute with any soldier in Iraq. Clearly they are only bringing you their imagined propagandists’ reality of Iraq. Both had the opportunity to go, both declined. They have chosen the coward’s path in a quest for legitimacy as spokesmen for the Iraq war, and as such both have failed in that quest. Indeed, they are left standing as laughingstocks. Their reach has exceeded their grasp. Cuban is a jet-set, armchair “Iraq Truther” who made sure not to have his private jet stop anywhere near Iraq. But he and DePalma are more than anxious to bring you the “reality of the Iraq war”.
DePalma said that going in it was his intention to make a film that would nauseate the American people, and thereby lead to a US withdrawal from Iraq. Well the only way for him to pull that off is if his film makes the case that the anomolous rape it fictionalizes is not actually an anomoly, but a “typical” snapshot of the US military’s behavior. In short, he would have to make his “troops-as-monsters” conceit appear to be typical of the troops, not atypical. This reveals a desire to create something that is nothing short of a willful and intentional smear built upon a lie. It also means that he decided not to look at Iraq for what it was, but to find something - anything - in it that would allow him to advance his propaganda campaign. Well Louie DePalma gave the game away when he confessed his excitement at his initial discovery of the rape story: “I knew I had a story!”. Now if that doesn’t mean “A story to suit my propaganda interests!”, then what does it mean?

The best defense DePalma has been able to muster about the lack of direct military reality in his film is “I had plenty of real stuff to put in but I didn’t put it in, and can’t show it to you to prove it, because my lawyers won’t let me”. That kind of bullshit pr spin may fly in Hollywood, but it isn’t flying here on earth. If you’ve got the goods, Louie, show them. It would appear quite clear why you haven’t already.

Dollard is angry... So am I... Tell your friends.... Stay away from the movie, the San Antonio Mavericks (basketball team) and anything else associated with this slime ball... The only thing Hollywood responds to is money. Cuban will lose credibility very fast if this thing loses money and costs him money in his other sources of revenue. Even if his is the -ONLY- weenie on this table... Nobody will put theirs on the table next to him in the future... Even Hollywood/Corporate weenies have a limit to how far they will go to show who has the largest Kielbasa.... Everybody remembers when the Big Weenie was whacked...

UPDATE

Iraq war films among favourites at Venice festival

VENICE (Reuters) - Two very different movies about the Iraq war are among the favourites for awards at this year's Venice film festival as it passes the halfway stage, and an unusually high number of male leads have stood out.
For pure shock value, Brian De Palma's "Redacted" wins hands down, stunning audiences with an uncompromising reconstruction of the real-life rape of a 14-year-old Iraqi girl and the murder of her and her family by U.S. soldiers.For those looking for a more nuanced take on the conflict, a hot topic in Hollywood today, Paul Haggis's "In the Valley of Elah" stands out, as does the performance of Tommy Lee Jones.

De Palma: ‘When You Get a Banner Headline on the Drudge Report, You Know You Are in Trouble’

Reda94ttm
Uploaded by luvnews

"The right wing will come at this movie. I have done something that just cannot be done. You can never say anything critical of the troops."

To be REALLY-REALLY BRAVE he should do a movie about union thugs and Hollywood personal corruption. Being BRAVE insulting the Right wing is nowhere nearly as brave as attacking the left would be... An anti-war movement movie showing venial and corrupt schemers-? Never going to happen... That would really cut off the hands that feed.... Making a predictable movie with full funding from a dilettante isn't brave. Attacking those hated by Hollywood isn't brave. It's just what they do in Hollywood when they no longer get the calls from major studios...

Demographics, Politics, Destiny

2007-09-03T01:57:00.000Z

The old saying "Demographics is destiny" is not used as much as it once was. Maybe we have gotten used to being the baby boomer "bulge in the snake" and haven't considered what happens when the snake slims down....

Maybe we have assumed that our parents will remain here forever to listen to our whining, to clean up behind us, to bail us out of our problems and to let us stay "forever youg"... Or maybe we just don't care. Thinking about the future is what we were supposed to be good at... Saving the planet (another topic, another time), being one with nature and living our lives so that all mankind was our brother...(More than ONE internet wise person has noted that we are not building shields to protect the cities, underground chambers to protect the population, space weapons to destroy intergalactic meteors that have destroyed the Earth several times before. Yet, we are concerned about Global Warming to a level not seen in 300 million years, based upon computer projections that cannot give an accurate forecast for March 15, 2008)

The reality is that a shrinking population means a sudden diminishing in our standard of living and reduction in our expectations. Boomers have never been very good at diminished expectations. Many of the things we have worked hard to achieve and now enjoy will be denied us. i.e.A nice meal out, clean hotel rooms, inexpensive and safe food, caring and professional nurses and doctors who speak our language and understand our needs.... Look at Europe and Japan who have larger social safety nets and a more rapidly declining population. They lack the tax funds and entrepreneurial energy to refurbish and maintain their infrastructure. (30,000 died during an August heat wave recently) Their power, sewer, water, road systems are all creaking with age and they lack the manpower to rebuild. A 35 hour work week and gentrified union work force will not bring about much more than a slow decline. It will not bring about a new technologies, new methods, new investment.

Steven Camarota in Front Page Magazine has an interesting article about the affects of our present immigration policies... (WARNING: Discussions of methodology, statistics, charts, graphs and other details that are not for everyone, at the link)

This study uses Census Bureau data to project how different levels of immigration impact population size and the aging of American society. The findings show that the current level of net immigration (1.25 million a year) will add 105 million to the nation’s population by 2060. While immigration makes the population larger, it has a small effect on the aging of society.

Among the findings:

Currently, 1.6 million legal and illegal immigrants settle in the country each year; 350,000 immigrants leave each year, resulting in net immigration of 1.25 million.
If immigration continues at current levels, the nation’s population will increase from 301 million today to 468 million in 2060 — a 167 million (56 percent) increase. Immigrants plus their descendents will account for 105 million (63 percent) of the increase.

The nation’s ongoing debate over immigration generally has not focused on the effect it has on U.S. population size. Yet, increasing the nation’s total population is one of immigration’s clearest and most direct effects. Supporters of low immigration point to the congestion, sprawl, traffic, pollution, loss of open spaces, and greenhouse gas emissions that could be impacted by population growth. Supporters of high immigration argue that population growth may create more opportunities for businesses, workers, and consumers. Whatever one thinks of population growth, the projected 167 million growth in the nation’s population in the next 53 years is very large

Because of gains in life expectancy coupled with the decline in fertility, American, like all modern societies, is growing older. Many observers worry that there will not be enough workers to support the government and economy in the future. It is often suggested that immigration can offset the aging of America society by adding young workers.

Conclusion
Consistent with Census Bureau projections, we find that future immigration levels have a very large impact on population growth. Also consistent with Census projections, we find that immigration has only a small positive effect on the aging of American society. At present, 1.6 million immigrants settle in the United States annually, and 350,000 leave, for a net level of 1.25 million a year. If that level of net immigration continues, the nation’s total population will grow by 167 million, to 468 million, by 2060. Immigrants who have yet to arrive, but who do so by 2060, plus their descendents, will account for 105 million — or 63 percent — of this future increase. If the annual level of net immigration were 300,000 a year in the future, the population would be 80 million smaller in 2060 than if immigration continues at the current level.

While immigration has a large effect on population size, it has only a small effect on the aging of society. At the current level of net immigration, 61 percent of the nation’s population will be of working age (15-66) in 2060, compared to 60 percent if net immigration were 300,000 a year. If immigration was doubled to 3.2 million a year (2.5 million net), it would only raise the working-age share of the population one additional percentage point, to 62 percent of the population in 2060. However, at that level, the nation’s total population would be 572 million, 272 million larger than it is today. Immigrants do tend to arrive in America relatively young, but they grow older just like native-born Americans. Immigrants admitted today become tomorrow’s retirees. And although they tend to have somewhat larger families than natives, the differences are not large enough to significantly change the nation’s age structure. As a result, immigration makes for a much larger population and more densely settled country, but can have only a small effect on the aging of society.

The debate over immigration should not be whether it makes for a much larger population — without question it does. The debate over immigration should also not be whether it has a large impact on the aging of society — without question it does not. The central question this study raises and that Americans must answer is what costs and benefits come with having a much larger population and a more densely settled country. Some foresee a deteriorating quality of life with a larger population, including its impact on such things as pollution, congestion, loss of open spaces, and sprawl. Others may feel that a much larger population will create more opportunities for businesses, workers, and consumers. These projections do not resolve those questions. What the projections do tell us is where we are headed as a country. The question for the nation is: Do we wish to go there?

We cannot think beyond the next election cycle.we think only in a sports win-lose mentality. We cannot imagine a nation THAT large. We cannot imagine the systems and procedures that we must develop to ensure that our economy, democracy, values and strengths remain vibrant... We cannot think that far ahead, but somebody must... If not our "National Thought Leaders", then who?

Illegal Immigration

Some people have already considered the consequences of their economic situation and decided that they want their children to grow up in "the land of the free and the home of the brave"... They have voted with their feet. Small towns across the Midwest have welcomed the waves of immigrants, legal and illegal. The current political mess shows only that our "leaders" would rather hide than deal with the subject.

MARSHALLTOWN, IOWA — Everyone knew they were there, doing dirty and dangerous work in the massive meatpacking plant. They had come a long way — more than 1,000 miles, from impoverished rural Mexico to the lush corn country of the Midwest. Some folks looked the other way, others offered a helping hand.

This town in the heart of middle America that has been transformed — even rejuvenated — by immigration stands as a symbol of the agonizing predicaments and pressures faced by many communities today.
As the latest crop of presidential candidates crisscrosses Iowa, their speeches bristling with catch phrases about the border, Marshalltown is confronting the real-life consequences of a problem whose roots are far away.
And the town can't thrive without immigrants. The dramatic growth in the Hispanic population — from a few hundred in 1990 to perhaps as much as 20 percent of the 26,000 residents now — has pumped new blood into this aging rural community.

"The leaders know darn well this town would really be suffering if not for the influx of refugees," says Mark Grey, a University of Northern Iowa professor and immigration expert. "They can wax nostalgic for the good old days, but the good old days are gone."
After the December raid — one of six at Swift plants across the country — federal agents returned in July. They made five more arrests, including a union representative and a human resources manager who allegedly coached an illegal immigrant on how to apply for a job using a fake name and documents.

This is an issue that will not go away. What is the carrying capacity of the United States? How mny people can we support? What do we do about the millions of people whoa re here illegally? How do we support our aging population? How do we support the whiny boomer's in their dotage? what will happen to Social Security, Medicare, Medicade, prices, taxes, insurance rates etc. in a nation with an aging and declining population?

When will a leader emerge to confront these issues? We keep electing "leaders" who get to Washington and become "sheep"... Or maybe we should simply focus on keeping the entrepreneurial spirit alive and let American ingenuity combine with immigrant ingenuity to decide what the future will look like...

"Slimed"

2007-09-03T01:37:00.000Z

Democrat Congress persons were shocked-surprised-dismayed-annoyed-angry (?) to find that their audiences in Iraq had received information about their previous statements.

The sheets of paper seemed to be everywhere the lawmakers went in the Green Zone, distributed to Iraqi officials, U.S. officials and uniformed military of no particular rank. So when Rep. James P. Moran Jr. (D-Va.) asked a soldier last weekend just what he was holding, the congressman was taken aback to find out.

In the soldier's hand was a thumbnail biography, distributed before each of the congressmen's meetings in Baghdad, which let meeting participants such as that soldier know where each of the lawmakers stands on the war. "Moran on Iraq policy," read one section, going on to cite some the congressman's most incendiary statements, such as, "This has been the worst foreign policy fiasco in American history."

"This is beyond parsing. This is being slimed in the Green Zone," Tauscher said of her bio.

More than two dozen House members and senators have used the August recess to travel to Iraq in the hope of getting a firsthand view of the war ahead of commanding Gen. David H. Petraeus's progress report in two weeks on Capitol Hill. But it appears that the trips have been as much about Iraqi and U.S. officials sizing up Congress as the members of Congress sizing up the war.
Tauscher called it "the Green Zone fog."

"Spin City," Moran grumbled. "The Iraqis and the Americans were all singing from the same song sheet, and it was deliberately manipulated."

But even such tight control could not always filter out the bizarre world inside the barricades. At one point, the three were trying to discuss the state of Iraqi security forces with Iraq's national security adviser, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, but the large, flat-panel television set facing the official proved to be a distraction. Rubaie was watching children's cartoons.

When Moran asked him to turn it off, Rubaie protested with a laugh and said, "But this is my favorite television show," Moran recalled.

I don't disagree it was an odd moment, but I did take a deep breath and say, 'Wait a minute, at least they are using the latest technology, and they are monitoring the world,' " Porter said. "But, yes, it was pretty annoying." (Professional level "Spin" -Just that easy. Don't try it at home.)

It was the bio sheets that seemed to annoy the members of Congress the most. Just who assembled them is not clear. E-mails to U.S. Central Command's public affairs office in Baghdad this week went unanswered.

"I had never seen that in the past. That's new," said Porter, who was on his fourth trip to Iraq. "Now I want to see what they're saying about me," he added, when he learned of the contents of his travel companions' rap sheets.

Read the whole article. It's short... But almost incoherent. The PROFESSIONAL JOURNALISTS at the Washington Post spent more column inches trying to spin the story than in answering some of the Journalism 101 questions such as "Who, What, When, Where, Why, " and the story was definitely NOT encapsulated in the first paragraph.... I guess it's the professionals doing something us amateurs cannot possibly fathom...

Chris Muir who draws the "Day by Day" comic strip did a much better job in only three panels... You should read his stuff every day... It puts the NYTimes and WAPost daily headlines into brilliant perspective... Much, Much better than Gary Trudeau, even way back when he actually cared.