Where has all the money gone-?

Interesting changes in American investment strategies. This represents a Long Term shift in strategy. Stock Market prices vs Live Stock prices... I think the mandated/imposed rules and regulations coming soon will affect all but the largest companies. The following brief report I found worthy of sharing. I have noticed my investors seeking a place to put capital to work. Someplace safe and highly likely to produce income as well as be a safe store of wealth. People will need to eat.... I hope you enjoy this "find"

Regards, AJ
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Strategic Investments in Farmland

Article by Ryland Moore. According to a report issued by the USDA’s Agricultural Statistics Service at the end of February this year, the United States had a reduction of over 3 million acres in producing farmland in 2012. Drought was the largest driver behind the reduction in productive agriculture, coupled with a renewed development cycle to meet the returning demand for housing after the residential real estate and stock market crash. In addition, Yale Economics professor and respected co-founder of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Robert Shiller, stated that farm and ranchland was a strong buy along with stocks as a good future investment.

While many states declined in number of farmland acres in production in 2012, Oregon was a bright spot with a net increase in over 200,000 acres in farm production. The increase is likely due to continued high prices in the commodities market, combined with ending cycles under the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) converting rested land back to agriculture. States like Oregon that did not have drought conditions in 2012 benefited from a low supply in the crop markets and allowed farmers and ranchers to obtain premium prices for crops; 2011 already proved to be one of the best years in Oregon’s farming history with $1.03 billion in net farm income. Expected later this year, 2012 figures look to be even better.

With less acreage under production in the US, possible drought conditions across the Midwest and Texas, and an increasing global population expected to grow by another 2 billion people in the next 20 years, demand and need for basic commodities such as wheat, alfalfa and corn will continue. We expect farmland prices in Oregon to continue on an upward trend as they have done since 2010. Demand for farmland is still high. With tighter yields in the bond market, stocks priced for perfection, and the market at all-time highs, many investors will look to diversify instead of sitting on cash. Forward-thinking Buyers are looking to areas where drought has typically not been a problem in the past.

Looking forward, conditions are unfavorable for the Midwest again in the 2013 season. USDA Chief Economist Joseph Glauber, who recently testified to the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, stated, “that about 60 percent of U.S. winter wheat production was under drought conditions.” Similarly, Scott Yates, director of communications for the Washington Grain Commission has learned of several reports indicating the lack of moisture has already stunted the 2013 Midwestern wheat crop to the degree that it will not be a quality crop. "Once again the Northwest, for the most part, is sitting in the catbird seat when it comes to the wheat crop in the nation," Yates said. "We have adequate moisture, we haven't had any arctic express come down, we've got snow cover over some of the land."

Now more than ever, investing in farm and ranchland continues to be an excellent way to diversify your portfolio, receive tax benefits, and afford recreational opportunities that other types of real estate simple cannot offer. For more information on the Oregon market, please contact Ryland Moore of Live Water Properties at ryland@livewaterproperties.com or 971.645.1515.

Notes From Wise People In The Past

I recently ran across these on www.goodreads.com... I read all of Heinlein's books I could find when I was a kid...

These quotations seem pretty good advice and insightful observations on life, mainly from an American perspective... I guess he helped shaped/confirm my view of the world as I grew up and went wandering about... The following are but a sample... I am finding the quotations of those who went before a helpful guide as I'm adjusting to this new phase of life. Once I get things understood and working fairly well-they/I change... That means adjusting myself and working to understand WTF is happening and how is it different... Those who went before dropped notes in bottles for us/me to find... Once I adjust to this new format, I'll add some comments of my own in response... Why-? Because I share and seek response from those passing by. I'm going to work at avoiding politics until we're past this "Lost Decade of Uncertainty, 2007-20017". There is No Free Lunch but some will get rich promising one and others will find ways to profit by accommodating changes while seeking special favors for themselves. Bribing people with their own money has never been so easy or have so many been so gullible.

"Love is that condition in which the happiness of another person is essential to your own."
— Robert A. Heinlein (Stranger in a Strange Land)

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects."
— Robert A. Heinlein

"I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do."
— Robert A. Heinlein

"There ain't no such thing as a free lunch."
— Robert A. Heinlein (The Moon is a Harsh Mistress)

"There is no worse tyranny than to force a man to pay for what he does not want merely because you think it would be good for him."
— Robert A. Heinlein (The Moon is a Harsh Mistress)

"Do not confuse "duty" with what other people expect of you; they are utterly different. Duty is a debt you owe to yourself to fulfill obligations you have assumed voluntarily. Paying that debt can entail anything from years of patient work to instant willingness to die. Difficult it may be, but the reward is self-respect.
But there is no reward at all for doing what other people expect of you, and to do so is not merely difficult, but impossible. It is easier to deal with a footpad than it is with the leech who wants "just a few minutes of your time, please—this won't take long." Time is your total capital, and the minutes of your life are painfully few. If you allow yourself to fall into the vice of agreeing to such requests, they quickly snowball to the point where these parasites will use up 100 percent of your time—and squawk for more!
So learn to say No—and to be rude about it when necessary. Otherwise you will not have time to carry out your duty, or to do your own work, and certainly no time for love and happiness. The termites will nibble away your life and leave none of it for you. (This rule does not mean that you must not do a favor for a friend, or even a stranger. But let the choice be yours. Don't do it because it is "expected" of you.)"
— Robert A. Heinlein (Time Enough for Love)

"Whenever women have insisted on absolute equality with men, they have invariably wound up with the dirty end of the stick. What they are and what they can do makes them superior to men, and their proper tactic is to demand special privileges, all the traffic will bear. They should never settle merely for equality. For women, "equality" is a disaster."
— Robert A. Heinlein

"An armed society is a polite society. Manners are good when one may have to back up his acts with his life."
— Robert A. Heinlein (Beyond This Horizon)

"At least once every human should have to run for his life, to teach him that milk does not come from supermarkets, that safety does not come from policemen, that 'news' is not something that happens to other people. He might learn how his ancestors lived and that he himself is no different--in the crunch his life depends on his agility, alertness, and personal resourcefulness."
— Robert A. Heinlein

"The first principle of freedom is the right to go to hell in your own handbasket."
— Robert A. Heinlein

"Listen, son. Most women are damn fools and children. But they've got more range then we've got. The brave ones are braver, the good ones are better — and the vile ones are viler, for that matter. "
— Robert A. Heinlein

VOTE...Please Vote

ENOUGH-! I have had it up past here and all the way to there. VOTE. Please vote... Once upon a time -EVERYTHING- did not require politics. We did not season our food, bathe with, clean our cars, listen to music, buy clothing, choose friends based on politics... Yeah, I'm old. I have withdrawn from bloging, watching TV, reading the newspaper, opening mail... all are past habits. I have my opinion. Listening and speaking with people who, in the words of Jonathan Swift "Cannot be argued from a position they were never reasoned into.".. I ave restrained myself from blogging on the theory that there were too many opinions being developed before your eyes... clutter is just that...Clutter. So, everyone please vote... Let's get on to the next mess... We will not have someone who can cure everything and make it as it was... The past will not return... We will have either more of the same muddle as we have had these past four years, more abuse of executive/imperial power...or we will have a mess to clean up and new probelms will be uncovered... The world has not sat idle while we have had our experiment. New powers see opportunity as we retreat and withdraw... We don't wish to be The Worlds Policeman"... Nobody else does either...EXCEPT there is no other nation who can trusted with that power... America is unique in that we really wish the world to be peaceful and choose whatever form of government they wish. We'd like them to have all the benefits and rewards that we have, but that is their choice... We have learned to accept that reality... Can we get away from politics-? Do we need our fearless leader on our TVs every day-? Do we really need a cult of personality vs accomplishment-? Oh well, whatever you do...Please vote.. I have not concern of who you choose. I trust the American People... eventually, we get it mostly right. It's our fate...we will get what we deserve not all ways what we wish... CUE: Rolling Stones song...

Long Distance Running

I ran for many years. A few dozen marathons and then many ultra marathons. My base training mieleage was 70 miles a week. Then I had to grow up and travel, bills and family intervened. Doing most of those miles in the Headlands of Marin County just across the Golden Gate Bridge was like having a small bit of magic where my frustrations could be smeared on the uphill sides and the realty that I was alone and unlikely to be found anytime soon. I learned to look inward and monitor myself, my energy, my resources, the weather, the trail, etc. This article reflects a bit of what I found. Chi running marries method and mindfulness Please read the whole article. It seems to offer an introduction to many of the things I learned the hard way. The rest must come from you. "We teach focus: how the arms are held, why the hips and shoulders are relaxed," he said. "It's about learning to pay attention." "In tai chi, everything moves from center," Dreyer said. "Runners are used to running from their legs. When I switched to (running from) the core, it changed how I ran. I felt better." Correct alignment is a tenet of chi running. Posture is the first thing Dreyer works on with clients. "If posture isn't good, the support system isn't good," he said. "Any weakness or misalignment will really affect you because you're always on one leg," he said, noting that running injuries happen from the knees down. In his method a forward tilt from the ankles moves the runner's center of mass ahead and allows gravity to take on more of the body's weight. "The body gets to fall," Dreyer said. "All you have to do is lift your legs." He also teaches landing with a mid-foot strike to engage and balance the entire foot. If you're new to running, Dreyer suggests starting with a walk/run sequence to allow the muscles to adjust. "Run 'til you feel tired, walk 'til you feel recovered," he said. "Our system is based on sensing your own body. If your body says it's too fast or time to go home, you listen." If you're holding yourself or just one part of your body tense while you run, work or socialize... you need to focus on those muscles and relax. The body is healthier when there i lots of air, lots of water and tension comes in small spurts. One should look inside themselves and as "What is bothering me-? Why am I tense-? Am I working against myself-? " I did and soon found that relaxing different muscles when they are not needed gave me more energy for the long run. The endorphins flowed and I was happier with the whole experience. If you're running are you running "from" or "to" some place or someone-? My final bit of advice on running and most endeavors is "Have Fun" We only pass this way once so find some happiness and stay there.

Tax = Mandate = Tax

The Mandate is THE Tax we all MUST pay. The Health Insurance Companies collect the tax and administer the benefits on the govt's behalf. The Penalty is what we pay for not paying the tax. What is unclear is how THE TAX being paid by employers is not a taxable benefit and income-? If employer paid taxes are included into income then it will not matter whether one has gold-plated policy or bare bones required by the law. When people see their gross income jump and all the associated taxes applied...they may not be happy. When the insurance company raises rates on policy holders; that will be a tax increase. See how simple it is when we view it -all- as a tax paid to insurance companies... Big "O" can then claim, honestly, to have raised incomes on all Americans... Won't THAT be a great campaign slogan... Plus he will have taken steps to pay down national debt, cure Medicare fund and Social security -all- with the higher tax rates. None of this can be challenged until 2014 when the taxes and penalty kick in... Isn't That Special-? Don't we all feel better-? I feel soiled and dirty. Time for a bath or shower inside that polling booth when the curtain is draw,

Something Happening Here-?

The Atlantic Magazine's Ta-Nehisi Coates is a senior editor for The Atlantic, where he writes about culture, politics, and social issues for TheAtlantic.com and the magazine. In today's blog he cites Alexis de Tocqueville and says he should be part of the Democracy in American canon.

I'll cite his lengthy De Tocqueville citation, but you'll need to read his blog for his thoughts. He does seem to find value here and is honest enough to admit the value, but cannot resist his personal bias towards things conservative... Or maybe I mis-read him.

De Tocqueville;
Centralization easily succeeds, indeed, in subjecting the external actions of men to a certain uniformity, which we come at last to love for its own sake, independently of the objects to which it is applied, like those devotees who worship the statue and forget the deity it represents.

Centralization imparts without difficulty an admirable regularity to the routine of business; provides skillfully for the details of the social police; represses small disorders and petty misdemeanors; maintains society in a status quo alike secure from improvement and decline; and perpetuates a drowsy regularity in the conduct of affairs which the heads of the administration are wont to call good order and public tranquillity; 49 in short, it excels in prevention, but not in action.

Its force deserts it when society is to be profoundly moved, or accelerated in its course; and if once the co-operation of private citizens is necessary to the furtherance of its measures, the secret of its impotence is disclosed. Even while the centralized power, in its despair, invokes the assistance of the citizens, it says to them: "You shall act just as I please, as much as I please, and in the direction which I please. You are to take charge of the details without aspiring to guide the system; you are to work in darkness; and afterwards you may judge my work by its results."

These are not the conditions on which the alliance of the human will is to be obtained; it must be free in its gait and responsible for its acts, or (such is the constitution of man) the citizen had rather remain a passive spectator than a dependent actor in schemes with which he is unacquainted.

t is undeniable that the want of those uniform regulations which control the conduct of every inhabitant of France is not infrequently felt in the United States. Gross instances of social indifference and neglect are to be met with; and from time to time disgraceful blemishes are seen, in complete contrast with the surrounding civilization. Useful undertakings which cannot succeed without perpetual attention and rigorous exactitude are frequently abandoned; for in America, as well as in other countries, the people proceed by sudden impulses and momentary exertions.

The European, accustomed to find a functionary always at hand to interfere with all he undertakes, reconciles himself with difficulty to the complex mechanism of the administration of the townships. In general it may be affirmed that the lesser details of the police, which render life easy and comfortable, are neglected in America, but that the essential guarantees of man in society are as strong there as elsewhere. In America the power that conducts the administration is far less regular, less enlightened, and less skillful, but a hundredfold greater than in Europe. In no country in the world do the citizens make such exertions for the common weal. I know of no people who have established schools so numerous and efficacious, places of public worship better suited to the wants of the inhabitants, or roads kept in better repair.

Uniformity or permanence of design, the minute arrangement of details,50 and the perfection of administrative system must not be sought for in the United States; what we find there is the presence of a power which, if it is somewhat wild, is at least robust, and an existence checkered with accidents, indeed, but full of animation and effort.

Granting, for an instant, that the villages and counties of the United States would be more usefully governed by a central au authority which they had never seen than by functionaries taken from among them; admitting, for the sake of argument, that there would be more security in America, and the resources of society would be better employed there, if the whole administration centered in a single arm--still the political advantages which the Americans derive from their decentralized system would induce me to prefer it to the contrary plan.

It profits me but little, after all, that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life, and if it so monopolizes movement and life that when it languishes everything languishes around it, that when it sleeps everything must sleep, and that when it dies the state itself must perish. There are countries in Europe where the native considers himself as a kind of settler, indifferent to the fate of the spot which he inhabits.

The greatest changes are effected there without his concurrence, and (unless chance may have apprised him of the event ) without his knowledge; nay, more, the condition of his village, the police of his street, the repairs of the church or the parsonage, do not concern him; for he looks upon all these things as unconnected with himself and as the property of a powerful stranger whom he calls the government. He has only a life interest in these possessions, without the spirit of ownership or any ideas of improvement.

This want of interest in his own affairs goes so far that if his own safety or that of his children is at last endangered, instead of trying to avert the peril, he will fold his arms and wait till the whole nation comes to his aid. This man who has so completely sacrificed his own free will does not, more than any other person, love obedience; he cowers, it is true, before the pettiest officer, but he braves the law with the spirit of a conquered foe as soon as its superior force is withdrawn; he perpetually oscillates between servitude and license.

I am reading "Beyond Mechanical Markets" by Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg. They are also authors of "Imperfect Knowledge Economics"


Chapter Two, page 46...

THE PRETENSE OF EXACT KNOWLEDGE
Far from attempting to minimize nonroutine activities, capitalist economies thrive on them. Yet Western economists seemed undeterred by the failure of central planners to comprehend and shape the future as if history unfolded according to fully predetermined mechanical rules. They set out to construct mathematical models that accurately capture how financial markets assess the prospects of alternative investment projects and companies not only today but for all past and future periods as well. Such fully predetermined models and the sharp predictions they produce are the hallmark of the contemporary approach to macroeconomics and finance.

I find the arrival of these two bits of information and others from normally nonconservative, nonindividualist, collectivist view point, political biased sources. There are others... I'll post em as I find em... You can find your own...

This political campaign season, besides being very nasty and personality-destruction oriented, will also be a conflict between the centralized-controlled, planned and manipulated economy and society vs the smaller, personal, private property oriented America of the Constitution and first century... Which will it be-?

2012 Predictions

Kurzwell Accelerating Intelligence website has a round up of predictions for someone who is either in need of or has received accelerated intelligence...

Predictions... Like poetry-?

More people write them than read them.

New Year, New Wisdom-?

It's not often that my morning reading throws up some good tidbits that combine to make things seem clearer, more optimistic, and generally uplifting.

The World Economic Forum has a list of 50 Risks for the coming year. As Inspector Renault said in Casablanca; "Round Up The Usual Suspects" They have and in keeping with anything titled "World" they have done so in 151 pages (64 in .pdf)... Scan when you can or use your imagination. A good counselor and wise person always starts with the obvious and proceeds to the Arcana. That makes the reader feel wisehttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif because; They knew it also. Still take a look.

Then contrast that with this article from Forbes; "Seven habits of Spectacularly Unsuccessful Executives" It's succinct and we all know these characters in our lives...and maybe we can identify a trait and stop ourselves from wading too far in that direction.

What do the two reports have in common... They highlight that most failures come from human frailty and success. Success stops hunting, stops running in fear of the chasing hordes who will come and take away market, talent, and provide something better, cheaper, easier, and cooler.

Albert Edwards of SocGen has some 11 forecasts... Again, most of which we knew, but it's nice to see the smart and rich people see much the same. This also comes with links and references to other. Have fun.

Watching the Know-Nothings dance around the pyre of Bain Capital is sad and interesting. All the Republicans who deplore growth of government, crony-capitalism and bail-outs of the Too-Large-To-Fail will have a hard time expressing those charges against President Obama when they have taken his side of the argument and savaged Romney... There are many stories in all the media... It's sad. We should be having a different discussion. This is a golden opportunity to educate and embolden American Entrepreneurs and business.

BUT it's also a reflection on our economic education level in America. TV and the schools have spent the last 50 years trashing business and denying that economic rules have consequences. The politicians have convinced many that only -THEY- can save them from the evil rich... Free Enterprise means "FREEDOM to risk your own money. Freedom to lose every penny. Freedom to provide a value for which consumers will pay a premium over your costs. Freedom to get rich." Free Enterprise does not mean a guaranteed anything... No jobs are guaranteed. No company is guaranteed that it will exist forever. No one is guaranteed that they will get rich. No one will have any assurance that they will not waste their money and time in pursuit of the dream. Seemingly, those who would be our Political Masters want to guarantee the success of every American... They cannot do that. They can only diminish the ability to risk much or be rewarded much...

Most people cannot tell you the difference between an "Operating Statement" or a "Balance Sheet". Yet, they all want to be paid more next year. They all want to have a safe and comfortable retirement. But they cannot be bothered with the math, the economics, the tools necessary to assure their participation in their own success. They simply wish to hire someone and sue when expectations fail to arrive. Is it any wonder that we have cities, counties and possibly states that will be broke by this time next year-? Free Money and lots of it is the only answer...as those self-proclaimed leaders hide from the hard details and call for bailouts to make it all go away. Do we have more road to kick-the-can-down-? Some say "NO-!"

Sad... America was once the home of the free...but we have chosen to look at our shoes and accept the words of fools as wisdom. We even lack the ability and initiative to read the books, watch the business channels, look up companies on the internet, and take care of our own future. Our wise-men are flailing about...

Looks like a very interesting year ahead. I recall someone saying that's a ancient Chinese curse. "May you live in interesting times"... Blessing or curse, we seem to have one and there is no way to avoid it.

Two-Way Streets

CBC Radio (aka Canadian Govt Radio) Has a report on a http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifpodcast by Susannah Breslin on the topic "Why Do Men Go To Strip Clubs?" It's an interesting tidbit... and really the responses are predictable.

I replied simply with an observation that each report and each question asked reveals something by -both- parties. The interlocutor and the respondent. Usually, Much-much more about the one asking the questions.

What do you think Susannah Breslin's report says about -her- ?

The reason this topic resonates with me is that I have spent a few moments listening to Those-Who-Would-Be-President during this reality TV season of debates, analysis, analysis and debates. A contest somewhere between American Idol, Survivor, and "Everybody Is Famous For Ten Minutes"... The TV people -LOVE- this as it draws eyeballs, is cheap theater, and tunes up their election coverage teams for the pig slop/bun fight that awaits us over the Summer and Fall. Nov 9, 2012 will be a day of silence...before they start telling us -WHAT- it all means... The silence will be wonderful.

Watching the most recent debate with Geo. Stephanopoulos and Diane Sawyer, she who always looks as tho she is just about to well up in tears... I could not help seeing -WHY- the mainstream TV people are losing audience viewers. They simply cannot get a conversation going and let the speaker reveal. They want -all- the talk after the event to be about -THEM-. Dick Gregory, on the earlier debate showed his ignorance and inability to be a reporter of events rather than an antagonist and party to the event.

New and unknown people would be much better at letting the candidates speak... It's a thought.

What is obvious is that attempting to be all-things-to-all-people is foolish and annoying. Be the same person you are at home-alone. We'll decide. The Media Made Cypher we have shows that The Media is not up to the job.

We Can Do Better.

MOVING...

I have been very quiet. This is because I tend to follow the instructions that Thumper's father gave him, and he related to Bambi; "If you can't say something nice, say nothing at all" ... I lack the active and endlessly childishness to be like Alice Longworth who famously said "If you have nothing nice to say, come and sit beside me."

The Blog-O-Sphere is -? Well, what is it-? Relevant any longer-? Or just a toy for old folks-? Hard to say. Tweeters and Facebookers have their own instant popularity and sharing... The aggregators still do -ok- some few better than the many others who are serving the same watered down broth. a few bloggers are doing their own reporting. Digging for facts and examining the public documents, crunching the numbers... but if cited the eyes roll and some wise person always says "Well, that's just a blog."

Given the performance of the Established, Credentialed, Mainstream, Establishment Media over these past ten years... I am given to roll my own eyes and think, if not say; "Well, you know how objective they are"... Watching the American Idol/Survivor show also-known-as Republican Debates... I can see how shallow their ability to examine and question has grown. The old axiom of "Use It or Lose it" applies to these extremely well paid and brilliantly made up-perfect-hair-people... They have lost it. They are no longer serious people for a serious time. They have surrendered their integrity for the sham of ratings and dollars... I changed the channel.

Watching their questions makes me realize that a question asked tells about -BOTH- speakers. The interrogator and the respondent. Barbara waters asking President Obama what super hero or super power he would have, or what flaws/faults does he have... No wonder they didn't cover the white House Halloween party. Full tilt Hollywood bash with Alice in wonderland theme, Johnny Depp, et al... a surprise-? Only to those who knew noting about it. Seeing the First Family in Louis XIV garb seems all too appropriate and easy...

The country is broke. People have been out of work for years. The President iis assuming royal powers, the numbers are being manipulated and nobody inquires about their veracity... and he has signed a law that allows him, and his military to sweep the streets, collecting any American they wish. They can hold them for decades without charge or notification to family or concerned associates.... Soon he will pop up and seek -YET ANOTHER- $1.2 trillion dollars in debt limit increase...

For those not paying attention; a trillion is one million individual millions. $1.2 trillion equals one million, two hundred thousand million dollars. That is a lot of money... we have already increased the limit and borrowed over $5 trillion...and that is just in his three years in office.

We are borrowing $.40 of every dollar we spend. ... The Adult Media wonders what super powers he would have or what flaws he has-? Something ain't right here. Are there any adults available who can face the reality of our impending disaster-?

See how easy it is to become a political pundit... anyone can do it. I just did...Wow-! aren't I a Pretty Bird-?

I have wondered what topics I can write about. what can I share and still remain, basically, a nice guy who values his privacy...

I'm still working on that...

But I am planning on departing California. Moving to some place more rational. California has been the cultural leader for America most of my life. despite the great people, wonderful climate and feeling of being the first to see "The Next Great Thing"... I am afraid that California will soon show America what happens when a state is financially broke. Nobody knows what happens when a state goes bankrupt. can it even file for bankruptcy-? Raising taxes and driving up costs are one factor in my decision. I am also tired of living on the bleeding edge of every social experiment that comes along... The state is broke. we owe the state employees and their pensions more money that is available. we believe in green-everything- and we refuse to develop the oil deposits that leak-naturally- from the ground and spoil the beaches.

The state wil soon lose the bothersome Pacific Cargo trade as the expanded Panama Canal allows larger ships and larger containers. The shippers, and shipping lines, will gladly by-pass these west Coast ports with their history of labor strife and political football... Hollywood remains a big deal. BUT most of the big money people and movies are owned outside of the state... You can fund 2-3-4 new movies just on the taxes you save.

In short, I see California being 6 months to 2 years ahead of the nation in our cultural rush to destruction. I'm not big enough to float thru any crisis, wise enough to time it, or energetic enough to take advantage of the fantastic opportunities that always arise in the midst of destruction...

Oregon looks interesting. California with trees, but the same social disconnect. Gown v Town played on the statewide level. democrats and unions in charge of everything... But it does hold some interest.

Virginia is nice. No, not NO-VA...that band of communities that border the capitol of the planet. I am over my temptation with the halls of power at the center of the universe. It is not my personality. I hold truth, trust and relationships too dear. I cannot deal secrets and betray trusts for the fleeting advance...The beaches are nice, but...too many people...Lots of humans make me nervous... Maybe Charlottesville or some place smaller--and in the mountains-? Shenandoah, what a lovely song and nice valley...

Florida-? Probably will win the battle. They seem to want old folks. Their tax structure is inviting. The Panhandle is nice. They have four seasons. The sand is nice, clean, soft-like powdered sugar. Not too many people-yet- that will change. Soon Knoxville, Atlanta, Birmingham and Montgomery will be an easy drive... Much like Los Angeles to Las Vegas or The Bay Area to Tahoe and Reno. Plus the air services will grow... Lots of and for homes, golf courses, etc and -ll- those small businesses that support Geezers and their related New Money

I'm up in the air-at this writing.

I am changing my life. I am readng much more than in years gone past. I have rediscovered music...lots of music...From classic symphony and opera, to big band-American Songbook Standards, rock, country, jazz.... So much new to me...and it feels like water in the desert...

Just a few of the things I have missed while I chased leprechauns and rainbows across the world...and never got a firm grasp on the famous Pot-O-Gold... I had finger tips on it a couple of times. I just "couldna make a fist of it" as a Scotsman told me once. I had a good run and some adventures...can't complain or brag, just smile in my Geezer-dom

Suggestions-? What would you do-? If you have read this far then you have some interest.

Conversation

Of all the old traditions that have slipped away due to email, text, instant message, plus the changes in society where there are no societal penalties for lying; the one thing I most miss is conversation.

I do not see people sitting and talking, with or without alcohol. Just plain conversing, sharing ideas, opinions, and perspectives on the world. The young in bars seem to NED loud music so that talk is hard and barest communications must be shouted... Houses lack front porch to sit and observe the passing parade... Living rooms are dominated by flickering bhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.giflue lights and sound systems, combined which cost more than the vehicle in the driveway... A visit to the home of a friend is often done with the TV going. I'm old. I cannot focus my complete attention on two things at a time. I give my priority to the person, live, and present.

Funny thing is, when I mute the TV or turn it off, the person stops talking. They seem to feel they are interfering somehow... yet, what they do not -get- is that I value their presence and words more than the babbling heads or silly drama/comedies that are selling me products.

I am presently reading "Robert Frost The Poet as Philosopher" by Peter Stanlis.

Robert Frost felt he could not be a true poet until he found his conversational voice. He paid attention to what people say, how they said it and what they meant. English is a growing, broad and inclusive language. We have many words. we can use them in a wide variety of ways

Prosody is a very interesting are for me. Being a Southerner, I have been aware of the way people speak my whole life. The rhythms, spacing, phrases chosen can be almost musical. Some people have a wondrous melody in their language. Others can say the same words and it sounds like metal being hit with a hammer. Words are not the sole conveyors of meaning. Prosody tells much more to the listener.

Songs are good examples of conversation in melody. Nobody would compliment Bob Dylan solely on his voice. His words, phrasing and voice complete the story and make it memorable and him entertaining. I have long loved the cello and violin for their resemblance to the human voice. They can convey such a range of warm emotions and feelings...

The songs of older generations had a phrasing that reflected rhythms of walking, rocking or movement. The newer music sounds, to me, as tho the person does not exercise. The music is short, choppy, and the voice conveys momentary passions. I do not hear the thought behind the feelings, just the emotion. Is it me- or- ?

I have had a few conversations with friends, strangers and relatives that resonate through the years. I don't remember so much what I said, but what I learned. We shared conversations that lasted an hour or two or all through the evening. I must have contributed something of value for them to stay and educate me.

I've wondered about the great leap in human evolution when we went from hunter-gatherer to farmer-herder... Some books on paleo-anthropology think that we grew a larger brain to handle to larger society and political inter-play that came with all the changes. I'm not sure that is the complete answer.

Supposedly we needed a larger language to convey messages between more people. We needed to band together for protection and to share crops, surplus, winter supplies and seeds for the coming year. We neded warriors to protect us, leaders to lead the warriors, taxes to pay for people who fight and train, and writing to note who has payed and who owes their taxes, plots of land, how many animals etc. All of which seems logical and probibly true.

I have read others who say that as hunter bands we used sounds more sparingly and specifically. That we needed to communicate across distance but could not use a human voice as it would frighten the prey. Some writers see us dancing to share our tales of the hunt. Where we went, what we encountered and how we overcame it... all of that seems also true... Mostly, we taked. With words, melodious sounds, music we spent a great amount of time learning from one another and learning about one another.

Now, we have the electronic medium that allows strangers to communicate, share/buy/sell music, spout any idea we wish, say any foolishness and spread any lies we wish... We have no way of identifying the speaker. we have no way of confirming their knowledge, wisdom, experience as actual, real and not fantasy. Children are wonders at mimicking their parents and other adults... how do we know if we speak/listen with an adult or precocious child-?

for me, it's time. Children have a short attention span and cannot hold their interest for long. I also use big words and look for them in return. English has approximately 100,000 words. On average we use less than 5,000 in our daily conduct. All those left over words just lie there, waiting. Why so many-? specific words for specific feelings, meanings, items-? adoptions and adaptations of other languages that have blended in. Examples would be Boutique, Boondocks and you can supply your own...But when those words are used we know specifically what they mean... we also know the way they sound and the song we are composing as we form the next sentence.

Learning is something we do without even being aware. We find meaning in several levels with each sentence we say or hear. What was meant-? What was not meant-? Why -those- words-? did the word jangle with the rest of the sentence-? Yes, we are more complex than we thought... and more simple... After all, we're human. what -exactly- that means is something we are each defining as we go ahead with the business of living.

Now that I read for my personal pleasure I take time to read all the words and consider what the author meant. I am not fighting a clock to find nuggets of information that I can shape into bullets for my next encounter across the boardroom table o large desk.

Poetry has more meaning now. So should blog. I fear that blogs like poetry has more creators than consumers.

Truth

I wish that Paul Eckman had been more successful. Perhaps he was. But Heisenberg struck again. Humans being adaptable we have only gotten better at presenting the false as the true.

Finding truth is hard. Truth is time dated. Truth is often situational and based on the perspective of the observer. Truth is mostly something we avoid. We accept words from others as true. We don't examine our own words, motives and beliefs. We swear that we are speaking the truth. Yet, we're not sure that it is anything more that the "at this time" truth.

I have met people who lie as a test of my integrity, memory, and honesty. I have met those who lie simply because it is convenient and short. They see the truth as something that will require a long story, possibly revealing details about themselves or their loved ones best kept private.

When I meet a new person, I almost never inquire too deeply. Why ask for something uncomfortable to be revealed or force a lie-? Let each person sing their own song. If it's pretty, pleasing and accepted then that is all required for social chat.

Words say only 10% of our meaning. Or so I read long ago from an author I cannot remember. Most communication is done by body language. Some say that body language is 60-70% of our communication. Inflection, intonation and phrasing make up the remaining 20-30% of meaning. My Mother-in-Law was a master at speaking in an insulting tone then reverting to pained defense when repeating her words. Hard woman to be around. Luckily she made it clear she disliked me from the start. I tried to be social, polite and agreeable. I was there because of my wife and later the grand children. It's easy to be around people who dislike you and you know it. There is no wondering what you have done wrong, this time or at any time. She was an enigma. I have yet to meet anyone who felt they knew her.

The tale about the Garden of Eden is a lesson that too few actually spend much time considering. It is the first time (earliest-?) we have a tale about nakedness (and idea that something is wrong with seeing one another uncovered), lying and punishment.

I have wondered about that tale often. Some think it harkens back to a time before we began farming and herding for most of our diet. The tales of Cain and Abel are of a hunter and a farmer, murder and again a lie. What puzzles me is the Tree.

Specifically, "The Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil"


Why the "Knowledge of Good and Evil"-? Why Both-?

Spending time around animals, dogs mostly these day. But around horses, cows and chickens as a child, I find no memory of an animal knowing either good or evil... Why-? Animals understand right and wrong. They learn behavior. They know what -we- their leaders demand and expect. We humans also know what our leaders expect, demand, coerce. If we don't we soon find out.

Hitler, Mao, Stalin, Pol Pot, Saddam, and unnamed butchers around the world slaughter and slay humans using the efforts of other humans. Are they speaking any objective truth to convince their accomplices-? Do they simply lie and manipulate their desires to please, do good, help, improve, share the burden of leadership, etc. to convince others that slaughtering the innocents is a good thing-?

Where is "Good" and where is "Evil"-? Most will not see -real- good in their life. There are acts of kindness. But finding, observing, doing a real act of sacrifice for another is beyond them. We also refuse to recognize "evil" in an act and most particularly when it is laying latent, resting, within another. We listen to smooth blandishments and accept them as something true that explains to our naive ears/eyes what we thought we perceived was wrong.

We have had peace for a long period of human history. Europe has not had such a long period with neither wars between nations or bands of roving brigands seizing territory and conquering tribes to claim status as a nation, in a very long time.

Does this mean that Evil is vanquished-? That Good prevails around the world and that only confusion exists today-?

I wish I could accept that. Unfortunately, I have too much background, too much reading, too many associations with warriors to see the world as safe and peaceful.

So back to the original thought; What is "Truth"-? And why do we think we live in it-?

Life is precious. It is easy to kill and ruin life. It is hard to bring it into being, to nurture and protect it, and to educate tthe next generation that bad things happen to good people far too often while good things happen to bad people more often than we wish. How do we teach our children to know Truth from Lie and Good from Evil-?

What was really in that fruit-? Did we eat enough or just enough to grow foolish and believe we can aspire to meet a diety as an equal-?

As I age, I get more questions and find fewer answers... When I was young, I had many more answers and fewer questions.

AS I age, and as I listen-watch-observe, those would be our masters perform; I wonder if it is more dangerous to speak the truth or to simply ignore, cover it or spin it (a polite way of lying)... Which breeds more monsters-? Which feeds their analysis of the speaker/leader's strength and weakness-?

The chattering class who leap in and tell us how to think about what we just heard seem mindless, credentialed-but-ignorant, people who have never walked down a street they did not belong alone and unarmed.

Why Is The Economy Stalled-?

Michael Barone has a piece in the Washington Examiner asking this question. The responses reflect the absence of much adult, knowledgeable thought. No surprise as the internet allows anyone to spout off and demonstrate their wisdom. America has been known throughout our history as a place where the "yahoo's" and loudmouths are free to babble whatever they wish. Often, like the innocent lad watching the parade who asked "Why is the Emperor naked-?" the scales fall and we see our leaders revealed as mere mortals and not very respectable, honorable, wise ones at that.

Here is my view of the present economic situation....yes, it like everything on this blog or the internet is "For What It's Worth"...

I was hearing about Obama in the 4th quarter of '07. I was doing an acquisition and speaking to finance people-mostly high-net-worth-individuals. They were heading for the bunkers. stopping and unraveling their small business ventures. They foresaw a rise in taxes, capital gains and regulations. Since then, most small-mid-sized owners have felt that their government has drawn a gun and is using smoothing talk to make everyone ignore it. The rise in regulations, potential regulations, changes in law interpretations of established practices all make us uncertain.

Banks and lenders are all facing unknown regulations and capital reserve requirements. It is cheaper and safer to borrow at close to 0% and lend via T-bills. Balance sheets look safer and no questioning the lenders creditworthiness. They are raising what fees and charges they can as often as they can. Nobody knows what the rules will be in 2-3-5-10 years.

This is first time in over 40 years I have no payroll to meet. That is uncomfortable as a changed habit. However, I cannot see placing any resources at risk in this environment. We simply have no clue about what the rules will be, how much we must raise prices to pay for compliance, what changes in equipment will be, whether the consumer or buyers will pay the increased prices.

High risk for low or modest reward is a fools game and very likely criminal. Low risk for high reward is a lottery ticket. Most of us seek a modest/manageable risk with a slightly higher foreseeable reward. we manage risks and provide our personal bond to guarantee the trust a buyer places in us, lenders and suppliers place in us. This climate is fraught with too many variables that are simply unknown and unknowable.

"Fundamentally Transforming America" is something that we cannot quantify or evaluate and respond to. Profits are great, but losses are personal. We pledge our property, our name and our honor behind our ventures.

Who chooses risks their reputation in this climate-?

Who accepts our personal bond, in this climate-?

It is better to sit and watch, awaiting a clear path than to risk so much for so little.

Not THAT Unexpected

The headlines from the White House and other news people is that the current economic situation is -unexpected-... They never say -who- didn't expect it. But they sure are saying it often. Headlines from the past two weeks show the use of the phrase again and again. -WHY-?

I don't geddit.
These are supposedly smart, adult type humans. They have told us again and again how smart and capable they are. I doubt they would even be elected as a high school class president or members of the student council with this silliness. This is even below sophomoric. It's just bull garbage-! By being "surprised" they are hoping that that we will not notice that they were hired to -not be surprised-.

Even if they lack the personal experience of the grade school playground, marketplace dynamics, competition...they should know better. Seemingly, they are admitting their ignorance. So, -why should we re-elect them?-

Today's WSJ has a front page about the housing mess. That was a surprise to somebody. I'm not sure why they didn't see these numbers coming. As they say in Washington, "It's politics..." Which means "How can we spin this so it won't blow back on us-? Quick find someone to blame."


The WSJ, today, has a column by John Huntsman concerning our predicament.

"Unless we make hard decisions now, in less than a decade every dollar of federal revenue will go to covering the costs of Medicare, Social Security and interest payments on our debt. We'll sink even deeper in debt to pay for everything else, from national security to disaster relief. American families will fall behind the economic security enjoyed by previous generations. Our country will fall behind the productivity of other countries. Our currency will be debased. Our influence in the world will wane. Our security will be more precarious. "

"Those who disagree with his approach incur a moral responsibility to propose reforms that would ensure Medicare's ability to meet itshttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif responsibilities to retirees without imposing an unaffordable tax burden on future generations of Americans. "


The online journal has a video conversation about what these economic reports mean for President Obama's re-election prospects with John Fund for those who like video. Me-? I like written words... spoken words and video are ok, but not my preference for the computer. OK- I'm old fashioned.

They have a column by George Melloan regarding the -mess- our Federal Reserve Bank has created and how difficult it will be to change things.

Melloan cites this article in Forbes by William F. Ford and Walker F. Todd

"The Federal Reserve has responsibilities and powers that no other American bank has. It can create money, for one thing, without being limited in its monetary expansion by the reserve requirements that bind ordinary banks. Also, the Fed's Board of Governors interprets the relevant statutes expansively as including a mandate to be the "lender of last resort" to the American banking system. "

"Finally, a major portion of the Fed's huge reported profits resulted from its heavy use of leverage since 2007, as the Fed roughly has tripled the size of its balance sheet in response to the financial crisis. By doing this, the central bank ignores the leverage ratios that both U.S. and international capital rules mandate for private commercial banks. At year-end 2007, the Fed had capital equal to about 4% of its total assets, or 25:1 leverage. By year-end 2010, the Fed had only 2.2% capital (now 1.95%), which implies leverage of 45:1 (now over 51:1). The Federal Reserve Bank of New York also now has an astounding 98:1 leverage ratio. "

Even if you have never read an economics book, discussed finances with your banker, or done much more than balance your check book and buy your house, you owe it to yourself to understand the dynamics of the times we face. These articles will be a good place to start. A subscription to -both- The wall street Journal and Forbes magazine would be great. At first, it may be confusing. Keep reading. In a short time all this goobledy-gook will make sense. And you will get upset at our leaders and hired "wise-people". They are fools and do not live in the same world we inhabit.

They have bitten deeply of the poisoned apple and drunk deeply into the well of Marxism-Socialism-Progressive-ism... They truly believe that -they know best- and that we, Americans, will be best served by re-distribution of the wealth of the rich. It is a scam. There are not that many rich people. Soon, their massive government will need to tax anyone foolish enough to still be working to pay for 1) govt employees and their golden retirements 2) all the "poor and needy" that will come in sliced and carved up groups. No more -AMERICANS- just groups all coming together under some mystical leader to achieve something wonderful...

The most wonderful thing we can do is to vote em out of office and demand a smaller government. Americans do not need to be herded, ranched, branded, and coddled so that we can produce more, more, ever more for an ever larger government. Let's stop this next year.

Housing Market

I must be dense. The problems with housing prices, new home starts and foreclosures doesn't seem that big a deal. The market keeps trying to act as markets always do. When there is a huge supply, prices go down. When there is a limited supply, prices go up.

Our government keeps throwing money at the markets trying to keep house prices high. The lenders get hammered by political winds concerned about foreclosures, lowered prices, demands for higher quality loans and lots of politics. every politician wants to give away the property to the deserving and needy poor... But that seems to mean that someone has to take the loss. None of the lenders want to lose any more than they must. So, with political pressure, they hold off foreclosing and pretend the loans are being serviced. In the meantime Fannie and Freddie keep spending money like they had it...well, they do now. They have no other shareholders but the U.S.Government. Why do we allow those companies to remain in existence-? Oh-! Yeah, politics. slush funds for constituents and jobs for lovers-du-jour.

In the meantime, New Home starts are not finding loans, buyers with large enough down payments and face competition from older homes, less-than-10-years-old that are in foreclosure... meaning possibly more square footage, more prestigious community, established schools and safe neighborhoods...

Also, underlying -ALL- of the above is the dynamic of demographics. Yes, Boomers are retiring at large numbers. They will likely inherit their parents house at about the same time as they retire. They will have two houses, paid off or mostly so. Will they sell at discount to shore-up and replace damaged retirement accounts-? Will they hold and try to rent them out while seeking warmer climes for their golden years-?

All of this is playing out and would move faster with probably a bit more predictability -IF- the politicians got out of the housing game. Is that likely to happen-? Nope. Giving away the property of others is a great way to be re-elected again and again... plus depressed housing prices slows the migration to warmer, non-union states... meaning less stress from redistricting and new boundaries with un-bribed constituents... SO; Nope the politicians have found some catnip and will roll all over it...

The old saying that "Demographics is destiny" applies here. Boomers are the first generation, in history, whose numbers are larger than the preceding generation and the following generation, combined. That means huge demands for entitlement spending, medical services, and changes in their discretionary buying patterns... They have everything. What will they spend their "play money" aka "entitlement largess" on-? Will they invest in businesses-? some may-not many. Will they get scammed by schemers like Bernie Madoff-? Yes, quite a few will. They have never had money to blow and the promise of secure, safe, outsized returns will be too hard to resist. (I saw an ad in the WSJ today promising 22% return on capital over 5 years.... P.T. Barnum said "There's one born every minute"... WHY would anyone thing they can -SAFELY- get a 22% ROI without taking an outsized risk-?) Most boomers have been "wage slaves" their entire life. They may have enough to remain comfortable as the years come in. However, I'm betting that the sharks smell greenbacks in the water and will soon be swirling about.


While we're -all- focusing on the housing market and return of "stagflation" we are ignoring the -boom- in new car sales. why are cars selling so readily-? GM spun off it's old GMAC in bankruptcy and then bought a new bank to make loans to their new car buyers. Why-? Cause new car sales mean big sales results, a quick IPO and pay-back to the U.S. Government... And the sooner the unions can sell the stock they took in the bankruptcy....then the Unions can turn about and demand more- everything-, cause that's what unions do. When your pension plan is invested in the company you gotta have profits to make investors buy the stock. So, as a union, you can't go on strike, make crappy cars and return to war against evil management and the shareholders and lenders... BUT...Nobody is looking at the quality of the new car buyers to continue to make payments. Nobody is examining -who- is buying all these new cars. Another financial meltdown-? Maybe-maybe not...but the politicians, unions and deal-makers who securitize the new car loans would sure benefit until it collapses...

Housing and automobiles are two huge drivers of the national economy (jobs). They consume lots of resources, require lots of transportation services, and mean jobs for a very large number of people. More than the military, but I doubt they mean more jobs than the combined state, county, municipal and federal government... I suspect that governments make more paychecks and have more promised in retirement.

The cash for clunkers wiped out a bunch of the used car market...so used car prices are up...almost equal to a new car... I get suspicious when I see the market acting in unusual ways... I like the old "buy low, sell high" and "surplus equals lower prices, scarcity equals higher prices" rules... When the politicians fingers are playing in the marketplace, one must be very quick and very clever to stay on the good (profitable) side of the deal. Politicians never worry about consequences...Why-? Cause voters (and our media proxies ) are lazy, have short memories and don't want to dig into the details of why-what-and what next-? They profit from our carelessness... and year after year, they keep doing it.

They depend on our being too busy with our lives to notice how they are robbing us...or they used to... Since they have over promised us into near bankruptcy, everyone is watching where the money goes.... Plus this internet thing allows ideas to flow unfiltered... We can communicate without the usual bribed gatekeepers and media guardians... Do we really need the pretty people explaining everything in baby talk-? Are we really -that- ignorant, naive, trusting, complacent-?

They depend on it. So do the predators who are coming for the scarce retirement dollars available when boomers suddenly have too much time and nothing to do all day.

Risk Assessment

The purpose of good management and good investing is to find the most realistic/likely scenario out of all the rosy and frightening scenarios. As the risk of loss goes up the rate of return must also go up. We expect more for the amount of risk we are willing to face. Natural and prudent in almost all situations. The problem these days is that it is really hard to accurately see what the future holds 12-18-36 months from now. Is it truly as rosy as the Administration says-? If so, why do they "fudge" the numbers-? I say "fudge" because it seems someone is selecting the data that will support their political needs.
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From Yahoo News/Reuters comes the report that "Nervous Investors Demand Bigger Returns".

"The world looks a lot more dangerous than it did only a few months ago and signs are that U.S. stock investors are starting to demand more for the added risk.

With important manufacturing and jobs data due next week, it could start to get even riskier.

That means nervous investors are likely to keep a lid on equity prices this year as they grapple with slowing global growth and a host of geopolitical risks from the Arab Spring to debt defaults in the euro zone."

Are we facing a period of higher economic and military risks. Will our political leaders/masters actually do something responsible and adult-? will we get words and spin or action-?

I have little faith in those sheep who claim to be our leaders but act like masters. Deeds count for more than words. Washington and our politicians generate words by the metric ton. Yet, even they do not know for what they are voting. They know little and careless about the effects of their pounds of verbiage. If it has a good sounding title, then what devilment is inside is fine. Their only concern is that no angry responses come back to them, specifically. Words are easy to hide behind. What have they done-? The Democrats haven't offered any budget proposals for over two years. Why-? Do they lack ideas or fear the reality that comes from standing for something-?

A question I have not found anyone able to answer; " We have borrowed and spent over one trillion dollars in something called stimulus. Have we received as much national economic good as if we had chosen one million citizens at random and given them one million dollars, tax-free-?"

I doubt that most people can tell you that a trillion is one million, millions. That number is simply too large for most of us to comprehend. We are running a debt of almost one million, five hundred thousand millions at present. We are strapped. If we have a national disaster we will be hard pressed to respond.

The usual answers are to raise taxes. But most often our sheepish leaders sell us a tax increase as applying only to the rich. What they do not tell us is that there are not enough rich people to pay for the mess we're in.

Their forecasts imply that a tax increase will bring no change in behavior on the part of those feeling the brunt. we all now that if our taxes go up, much like the cost of food and transportation, we have less to support the lifestyle. It does not take a leap of genius to realize that those who earn less also pay less. The rich own things. Our tax structure is based on income. Their income can be adjusted to earn less with much less pain than the poor or middle classes. As a past company owner I know that if we needed new equipment that cost would come from my income. Same with new facilities, repairs, upgrades, and increased wages. The owner gets paid last. Raise my taxes and I spend more on my company. I doubt that I am the only one who would make that choice.

The middle class has no such option. They are stuck with what they earn. If the company can't pay more then change jobs. But with this current high level of unemployment there are easily a couple of hundred people who will step up for that "low" paying job... So in reality, any tax increase is going to hit the middle class hardest. Our leaders cannot understand that -or- they think we can't. Either way, we're being lied to.

If we raise taxes and they hit the middle class will they demand higher wages or buy fewer consumer goods or simply hunker down and wait for this cycle to end-? My guess is a bit of all. Raising wages would work if customers would pay a higher price. If they refuse to buy the company goes under. A bankrupt company gets no praise for raising wages and paying more in taxes...

How does a country go bankrupt-? When we have no more credit and have refused again and again to cut our expenses what happens-? When a country spends itself into insolvency-what happens-? We don't know. It hasn't happened to the U.S. before. smaller countries have been rescued and placed on strict fiscal austerity budget. Do we turn over our country to the IMF and World Bank-?

So, yes. These are perilous times. Things must change and change quickly. will our "leaders" actually lead-? They claim to be Leaders every two years. Yet, now, when we really need some leadership we seem to be lacking.

Always Surprised-?

The headline says "Pro-Obama media always shocked by bad economic news"

The article then goes on to explain, expand and support the headline. What it also explains is who is surprised and why.

Michael Barone (author of article) is very good with numbers. He is too much a gentleman(?) or has too much to lose by saying what most of us would say...

"We're being lied to." Like children who will be frightened if we know the truth.

Unemployment figures are -only- the numbers of people drawing unemployment checks. It does not include the numbers of people who have exhausted they benefits, who never had them (contractors, consultants, sole proprietors, etc) or those who have given up looking. Some wise people estimate that the true number of those without a job and who wish they had one is double the official figures. Why not simply count the numbers reporting income pre-depression and subtract the numbers of people reporting today-? They do not include everyone who has graduated from college, high school, graduate school or released from active military service... -Why-? These are surely people who are unemployed... But they are ignored in official numbers.

Inflation numbers are rigged. They do not include the cost of food or transportation. The most obtuse and dense shopper knows thhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifat food prices are going up and not coming down. Food makers are doing two things to hide the fact. Some use smaller packaging. Some use "bonus" extra sizing and some are doing both... The fact is that food prices are up. Gasoline and diesel costs more. That means it costs more to get to/from work, go shopping, go on vacation, go anywhere. It also means that the average family is spending $168 dollars per month more on fuel. Higher prices dry-up demand for consumer impulse and non-essential products.

Companies, big and small, are sitting on their cash. The WSJ's Intelligent Investor column on Saturday ran an article asking "What Will It Take for Companies to Unlock Their Cash Hoards? "

He says "There is a cash crisis in corporate America—although it comes not from a shortage of the stuff, but from a surplus.

In the first quarter, the five companies with the greatest cash hoards—Micrhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifosoft, Cisco Systems, Google, Apple and Johnson & Johnson—added $15 billion in cash and marketable securities to their balance sheets. Microsoft alone packed away roughly $9 billion, or $100 million a day. All told, the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are sitting on more than $960 billion in cash, a record.

To be sure, at many companies the cash piling up is at global operations that generate "undistributed foreign earnings" that can't be brought home, under U.S. law, without incurring taxes of up to 35%. But hundreds of billions in cash remain available—and idle."

What the author fails to report/recognize is that 1) Bank lending criteria has changed. 2) SEC regulations have changed 3) The affects of Obama Regulations and legal judgements are unknown 4) If the cash is paid out and a disaster or opportunity arises, the company will have a hard time replacing it. Even re-tooling to remain compliant and up-to-date will require cash, from where will it come-?

The biggest culprit is the affect of unknown/unknowable regulations. The new financial act creates new agencies that write new regulations. It creates a czar who cannot be fired by the President. Who Congress cannot control and cannot even de-fund. Who is unaccountable to the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. And finally, who can tap the public Treasury for unlimited funds at any time, for any reason. Sarbanes-Oxley has killed the IPO market without touching -any- of the ills that led Congress to act. The new financial act will do nothing to regulate or control the root cause of this depression. FASB is still thinking of another mark-to-market rule. Fannie and Freddie are still alive and draining the Treasury of unknown future amounts. They are also still not being addressed as the problems they are. The fools who created them, ran the and enjoyed the perks/benefits of their irresponsible behavior have not been chastised or punished. Probably never will either. Crimes and moral turpitude at high levels and among the political class are never punished...

As a small/mid-sized businessman, -at this moment-. I am glad I have no employees, no business involvement, no exposure to the unknowns and the scary knowns, implied or implicit, or possible future unknowns... I have no payroll or employees for the first time in 40 years. It is a strange feeling. I never planned to retire this way. I don't like it. Being idle is uncomfortable.

I keep looking for opportunities. I see some. However, before -anyone- makes a commitment to invest time, money or reputation; they want to see a reasonable chance of success 3-5-10 years down the road. At this moment, I cannot see any opportunities that justify risk. The future is frightening. As entrepreneurs and managers our jobs are -not- to run away from risk. We must mitigate risk vs reward and choose the path(s) that best provide a shot at producing a return that justifies the expense. Breaking even/staying alive is good, but it's not enough.


The future will change. How an in what direction is unknown, by me, at this time. I cannot make a reasonable forecast and discuss it with others... Are the changes permanent-?

What affect will regulations have on the cost of supplies, transportation, funding, employees, taxes-? If I know the costs, I can compute the necessary price. Is the public ready to pay -that- amount so that my products/services will provide the return I need to repay lenders, trade creditors, investors for what they have put at risk-? will my competitors allow the price in their marketplace-? How will they respond-? Yes, unlike the governments, colleges, NGO's and other parasites; private enterprise has competition. We must serve the customer a good value for a fair price. We do not re-distribute the profits from the efforts of others. I am a bit blinded by the current economic mess.

I am open to suggestions.

Charles II

The Earl of Rochester said it best ""Here lies our Sovereign Lord, the King whose word no man relies on: He never said a foolish thing nor ever did a wise one"."


King of the World seems the best job. So much better than mere President of the United States.

From the above citation; "Obama has always preferred the symbolic authority of the grand utterance to the actual authority of a directed policy—a policy fought for in particulars, carefully sustained, and traceable to his own intentions. The command to kill or capture Osama bin Laden and the attempt to assassinate Anwar al-Awlaki in a drone strike, which closely followed the bin Laden success, are the exceptions that prove the rule: actions of a moment, decided and triggered by the president alone. His new Middle East speech, at the State Department on May 19, was in this sense a return to a favorite genre. "

Americans do not need a king. We do not need to be herded into a mass of bi-partisan compliance. Our native emphasis on the individual as the fount of all government powers is deeply ingrained... Of course, this speaks mainly for and applies mostly to generations soon passing.

Americans are unique among all nations. we can create our own jobs, our own futures, and our own style of both. Calling for us to "come together" is akin to the same herding mythology used by -all- totalitarian governments. Leave us alone.

We are not children. Explain things, reasons for an action.

DO NOT BEND TO PERSONAL DESTRUCTION, treat us as you would another grown-up. -WHY- is this proposed action important-?

If you want my vote, tell me why -you- can do what you promise. Tell me where/when you have done something before. Show me more than a pretty face, a pleasant manner and vague words with unknown meaning... America does not need another President-as-Celebrity or even President-as-talk-show-host. Leave those shallow people to TV and deal in facts.


AMERICA IS BROKE. UNLESS WE CHANGE OUR SPENDING HABITS QUICKLY, THINGS WILL ONLY GET WORSE...

Can we change-? Will we change-? Who has a plan-and- the backbone to weather these adult changes of direction-? Do we see anyone like that-? Is there anyone who can deal in details-?

Is it really that much easier to see the personality and ignore the danger-? Fix these serious problems and then we will go back to eating our Lotus Blossoms...

Do we dare demand our politicians act as adults and treat us as such-? That would be a huge change in our cultural acceptance of the Big Nanny who takes care of us and everything else in our lives. We have become domesticated and are now herded like animals for slaughter.

The boomer generation is retiring quickly. This generation is unique in history. We are the only generation that is larger than -both- the one that preceded and the one that follows, combined. We will be a huge burden on the entitlement system. We will sell our houses and free our capital to pay for living expenses as we head into our dotage. That means housing prices will soon be falling and staying low. Yes, a few will own more than one home. Not many. we are in danger of many more not having a home at all. and little/no way to pay property taxes, maintenance, repairs and monthly running costs... It is going to get ugly...and unless our "fearless leaders"http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif act like adults; it will get worse.

Funny/Ironic how every politician says "Vote for me. I'm a leader" then gets to the legislature and becomes a sheep following when the Judas Goat of their party walks past.

Enough lies. Enough fasle directions. Enough silly numbers that are selected to scare and mislead... be an adult and speak the truth as one adult to another. Fire the consultants. Be yourself. Who knows-? You might win simply by speaking the truth. There is no free lunch, Social security or health insurance. Everything has a cost. Explain how you would deal with it.

THAT would be a huge and pleasant change.

Where Are The Grown-Ups-?

The speech-a-day Presidency is wearing too thin. No new ideas, no new plans and we can't believe what he says. Saying and Doing are two different things. In this person they are two very different planetary orbits. What Will He Do Next-? I don't think even he knows.

He is poll and focus group driven.

We seem to have a new crop of the cautious fingers-to-wind-testers running as -THE- GOP candidate. I thought leaders -led-. Usually from the front. I thought they articulated 1) the problem and b) their solution and c) started marching in that direction. So far, nobody is for anything. They are against Obama and the present course.

That is not good enough.

We need people (some one would do) .


Being against something is fine. -IF- you can define it and state the flaws.

Then offer a solution.

Merely being against it is not enough. Your reasons for disliking it may not be mine or vice versa. Why you oppose something will let me understand what/how you will act to fix it. I may not like your methods or solution.

We need to stop listening to politicians who speak in such nebulous terms that whatever they said, we can agree with-even if we cannot repeat it or explain it. Speak plainly.

I don't want a litany of what's wrong with the other guy. How about we start from the proposition "He's good. I'm better. Here's why;" -? Let's be for something. Let's be for doing better, getting things right, striving for a better goal. What is the goal-? How will we get there-?

The present abuse of each other and wishy-washy vaporous speech is old. We've bought too many fools with results that surprise and embarrass us. Stop Spinning everything...

We, the adults, must demand better answers and more intelligent perspective from those who would be our leaders.


Let's start by asking harder questions. Every one of them have writers, coaches, trainers, make-up and hair stylists... We need-want-hunger for some real adult answers.

WHO ARE YOU-?
Where have you been-? what have you done-? Why do you think your way is the best way-?

WHAT CAN YOU DO FOR ME AND AMERICA-?
What, in detail, is your plan-?

HOW MUCH WILL IT COST-?
Nothing is free. So, how much-?

WHO WILL PAY FOR IT-?
The Evil Rich-? everyone-? Cuts in programs-? Where will you cut-?


We know things will cost. We know changes are not free. Not everyone will be happy.
However, things are bad and quickly getting worse. what will -you- do-?

Or is it just me-?

Recovery-? What Recovery-?

I notice the usual wise people are saying we are having a recovery.

Where is it-? I look around and do not see any signs of a recovery.


Unemployment-?
The numbers of -NEW- filings each week is down. BUT, the numbers of unemployed is fudged. They only count those receiving unemployment checks. Those out of work for lengthy period beyond the compensation period are not counted. Student graduates, but high school and college, are not counted. IOW we're being fudged, fiddled, diddled.

Inflation-?
Low because we don't count food prices or transportation, heating, electricity prices in our calculations. When it costs more to feed the family, drive the car, heat/cool the house...then it's inflation.

Stock Market is back up-?
Lessee, first we get the Chinese to raise the value of their currency. This means more people/countries shift away from US dollars to buy Chinese goods. Things priced in US dollars
cost more dollars but the dollar alone, buys less. US buyers of Chinese good must pay more.

Gold, Silver, Oil, Grains, Coffee all heading for record prices. Nobody wants US dollars when other currencies are worth more. BUT it also means that the US dollar is cheap compared to others. This makes not only our products less expensive but also our stocks, land, buildings and even companies. Is the stock market up because US investors are buying value -or- because overseas investors are finding safe haven and good bargains-?

US Dollar Stable-?
The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates low meaning no savings, except for security of institutions. Low interest is supposed to stimulate borrowing. Yet, the new regulations and heightened oversight of lending institutions mean that even the most creditworthy are struggling to find loans. The Fed has pumped $600 thousand-millions into the Treasury to flood the market with cash. This was supposed to make it easier for people to buy homes, cars etc. But again, new regulations and new enforcement interpretations mean that lenders do so at their own risk.

Housing prices -may- have bottomed out. Those who can afford em are staying, even if under water (i.e. owe more than underlying present market value). Foreclosures and sales are slow. They estimate we have a 20-month supply. IOW, if we sell at this rate the inventory will be sold in 20 months. Does this mean that no new homes will be built-? Probably only a few. This forecast also -assumes- that NOBODY will list a home for sale for the next 20 months. Really-?

New cars-? OK, the lack of sales is spurring pent-up demand. However, UAW contracts expire soon... will there be a strike-? Or do we go in a circle again-?

Gas prices are up. Yes, and some wise pundits are forecasting $6/gal by end of summer. That is going to curtail a lot of driving and driving vacations. The President says "BUY a new car." What he hasn't said is "Whose money-?" Big SUVs are safer than liddle cars. They burn more gas, but hauling the kids is not a compromise issue for most Americans.

OTOH The President has shut down drilling in the Gulf. Permits are hard to get and all the goo-newer rigs have moved offshore. One went to help Israel discover it's new oil field. another is going o do the deep ocean drilling that Brazil needs done. Cuba has signed leases with China and other countries to explore their deep Gulf oil fields between Cuba and the US. so, instead of the US having American jobs, rigs and companies we can regulate and penalize should there be a spill, we now face sovereign nations who can easily thumb their nose at our claims. I seriously doubt that Cuba, China and others will willingly dump $20 thousand millions into a fund to pay damages.

The EPA won't allow a pipeline to be built to carry the high sulfur oil from Canada to the Gulf refineries that presently process the Venezuelan high sulfur crude. Venezuela sends us 10% of our oil imports.

We are restricting, delaying and regulating the newly discovered oil and natural gas fields. we are doing everything we can, via regulation and litigation, to stop-slow the use of carbon based products. BUT the price spike is blamed solely, exclusively on "speculators". The US has -never- found any speculators behind the rise in pump prices before... Maybe this time...

The EPA is trying to regulate "Carbon" in the atmosphere. Congress has never given them this power. They and the enviro lawyers are trying to get carbon emissions adjudicated before a court rather than having to actually -prove- it is harmful before Congress, the American people or even other regulators. They have done this before in funding studies via grants to NGO's who in-turn sued the EPA and thus increased their mandate. Regulatory power accretes. It never retreats willingly and only in the face of massive political force.

Businesses are being slow to hire. They cut back and saved jobs by voluntariy hourly restrictions by their employees. Only a non-union company can save jobs and avoid harming a community. The unions have shown, almost completely, their unwillingness to adopt flex hours or even reduced hours in order to save jobs. Businesses will increase their hours worked to reward their loyal workforce before they hire strangers.

Businesses are also hesitant due to the uncertain regulatory environment we're facing. The EPA rules may drive up the cost of transportation of all goods. If the public balks at buying new stuff, the trucking companies will be stuck with employees and no work; new trucks with no feight and new loans they cannot service. Yes, I know that the present demand for trucks and drivers is up...but...is it temporary-? are thet putting old equipment back to work or-?

When prices rise, the public hunkers down. The employees are -ALWAYS- the last to see any increase in wages. suppliers must pay more for raw material. Manufacturers must pay more and -hope- their good will not be refused because of the new price. Only when the new prices are firmly entrenched will employees get raises. It is impossible to give a raise then take it back and keep a good employee. we live in an age where "Stuff is cheap and labor expensive" but unfortunately many of us are still making decisions based on "Expensive stuff and cheap labor"... Higher prices for the same goods will face resistance from buyers.

It's not complicated...but it gets that way when we are lied to about; numbers and facts regarding our situation, when we are given spin and not answers, when new regulations are hiden inside bills an proposed regulations to avoid upsetting the public, when nobody knows what to do but keeps talking/spinning the yarn without explaining anything.

Does anyone know what needs to be done and is willing to make the adult decisions-?

Where are the adults-?