1) No. He has no depth beyond his celebrity. Real estate is not the same as service or manufacturing. He has been to bankruptcy several times. If you cannot make money running a casino- you are not a manager. He has also taken his partners into bankruptcy several times. His style of business is fine for NYC gentlemen. People who know the rules, are aware of the NY & federal laws, and who need to play fair-ish because of their next deal. It won't work against really evil people who are not afraid to use violence or cause deaths on a large scale. He has never faced anyone who has nothing to lose and is willing to burn everything down.
2) "Birther" and Affirmative Action Issues. Side shows attractions. The sizzle and aroma that brings in the crowd. The fresh baked cookies or bread that set the stage and bring the crowd to see/buy something.
3) Trump's appeal...WHY he is gaining traction over Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty, etc... He is an America Is Great advocate. He does not apologize. He does not accept arguments that mistakes are errors of current social policy are fatal character flaws. He proudly and loudly states that America is a good nation. Americans are a good people. Americans are better at guiding our own future than any other nation.
America is the best friend any democracy seeking people will find anywhere. We are there when disasters happen (our military budget pays for this largess-remember the military budget-?) We do not say "You -must- have and American style democracy". We don't really care what for type of democracy you choose, as long as you do it peacefully.
Trump is saying all this (by his actions and boisterous challenges more than words alone) after almost three years of non-stop apologies, withdrawal from confronting evil, and following the hard Left turn to Collectivist-Redistribution path towards insolvency. No country has ever accomplished what Obama proposes without slaughtering 5%-10% of their population. America is not -that- country.
4) Money... Trump's wealth is locked up in assets. He is usually short of the "readies" aka ready cash. He cannot raise enough from other donors to win. He has celebrity because he has time to develop it-for his business i.e. building overly posh, over priced buildings for people with too much money.
5) Trump sets the narative for a strong, fiscal conservative and strong defender of America. If the Republicans say to the social Conservatives "You talk to the states"...The game changes. No more need for federal money, regulations or laws to distract from the mess we're in
6) Obama is a known commodity. He is no longer the perfect blank slate spouting aphorisms that we can interpret to fulfill our fantasies. He is known. He appears bored with the job. He makes it seem beneath him and not really worth his time. He is afraid of a mistake and therefore dithers, delays and delegates waiting to claim victory or blame others. He makes no efforts or commitments
7) Obama's financial machinery won't work this time. The rope-a-dope donations where the internet accepts -any- name as long as the credit card numbers are good. The laws are based on the names. So long as no single named person+address donates over the limit-he's in good shape. The question is whether the Republicans will follow this bit of sophistic legalistic magic or take the high road-? I doubt the F.E.C will ever respond to this hole in the laws. Obama & Democrats are counting on Republicans playing by the spirit of the laws while they play by the tight, legal defintions of each word. ( a nation of lawyers ruling us peasants-?)
8) The $3 billion given to A.C.O.R.N. and all it's newly named groups may not work. The public is aware that false absentee ballots are being applied for, false names are being registered as voters, no photo ID's mean that any person can vote multiple times, that the elderly and enfeebled are having their ballots filled out for them, etc... Will that practice continue-? Do we value our votes or simply not care-? This is a local issue...what are -you- doing about it-?
9) The Unions are busy fighting for their continued existence. Their right to continued extortion of employees and state governments is being challenged in many jurisdictions. Their manpower and money is going in many directions this year before the November 2012 election.
If they lose the "Check-off" they will not be able to have the employers -TAKE- money from the workers paychecks and -GIVE- it to the unions. They must then go hat-in-hand (or baseball bat in hand) to ask for the monthly dues... Not a pretty sight. People tend to thing the money thy earn belongs to them. They will also start asking the famous consumer question "What are you doing to earn my money each month-?"
10) Trump has never taken a ten-year full time commitment to anything. Obama is only committed to his own sense of magnificence and his definition of glory. He was The First. His place is sealed in the history books. Any future (aka The Next) candidates -will- be investigated, known, understood and examined -MUCH- more closely. No more stealth candidates... We learn slowly, but we learn and remember.
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