Demographics, Politics, Destiny

The old saying "Demographics is destiny" is not used as much as it once was. Maybe we have gotten used to being the baby boomer "bulge in the snake" and haven't considered what happens when the snake slims down....

Maybe we have assumed that our parents will remain here forever to listen to our whining, to clean up behind us, to bail us out of our problems and to let us stay "forever youg"... Or maybe we just don't care. Thinking about the future is what we were supposed to be good at... Saving the planet (another topic, another time), being one with nature and living our lives so that all mankind was our brother...(More than ONE internet wise person has noted that we are not building shields to protect the cities, underground chambers to protect the population, space weapons to destroy intergalactic meteors that have destroyed the Earth several times before. Yet, we are concerned about Global Warming to a level not seen in 300 million years, based upon computer projections that cannot give an accurate forecast for March 15, 2008)

The reality is that a shrinking population means a sudden diminishing in our standard of living and reduction in our expectations. Boomers have never been very good at diminished expectations. Many of the things we have worked hard to achieve and now enjoy will be denied us. i.e.A nice meal out, clean hotel rooms, inexpensive and safe food, caring and professional nurses and doctors who speak our language and understand our needs.... Look at Europe and Japan who have larger social safety nets and a more rapidly declining population. They lack the tax funds and entrepreneurial energy to refurbish and maintain their infrastructure. (30,000 died during an August heat wave recently) Their power, sewer, water, road systems are all creaking with age and they lack the manpower to rebuild. A 35 hour work week and gentrified union work force will not bring about much more than a slow decline. It will not bring about a new technologies, new methods, new investment.



Steven Camarota in Front Page Magazine has an interesting article about the affects of our present immigration policies... (WARNING: Discussions of methodology, statistics, charts, graphs and other details that are not for everyone, at the link)

This study uses Census Bureau data to project how different levels of immigration impact population size and the aging of American society. The findings show that the current level of net immigration (1.25 million a year) will add 105 million to the nation’s population by 2060. While immigration makes the population larger, it has a small effect on the aging of society.

Among the findings:

• Currently, 1.6 million legal and illegal immigrants settle in the country each year; 350,000 immigrants leave each year, resulting in net immigration of 1.25 million.

• If immigration continues at current levels, the nation’s population will increase from 301 million today to 468 million in 2060 — a 167 million (56 percent) increase. Immigrants plus their descendents will account for 105 million (63 percent) of the increase.

The nation’s ongoing debate over immigration generally has not focused on the effect it has on U.S. population size. Yet, increasing the nation’s total population is one of immigration’s clearest and most direct effects. Supporters of low immigration point to the congestion, sprawl, traffic, pollution, loss of open spaces, and greenhouse gas emissions that could be impacted by population growth. Supporters of high immigration argue that population growth may create more opportunities for businesses, workers, and consumers. Whatever one thinks of population growth, the projected 167 million growth in the nation’s population in the next 53 years is very large

Because of gains in life expectancy coupled with the decline in fertility, American, like all modern societies, is growing older. Many observers worry that there will not be enough workers to support the government and economy in the future. It is often suggested that immigration can offset the aging of America society by adding young workers.

Conclusion
Consistent with Census Bureau projections, we find that future immigration levels have a very large impact on population growth. Also consistent with Census projections, we find that immigration has only a small positive effect on the aging of American society. At present, 1.6 million immigrants settle in the United States annually, and 350,000 leave, for a net level of 1.25 million a year. If that level of net immigration continues, the nation’s total population will grow by 167 million, to 468 million, by 2060. Immigrants who have yet to arrive, but who do so by 2060, plus their descendents, will account for 105 million — or 63 percent — of this future increase. If the annual level of net immigration were 300,000 a year in the future, the population would be 80 million smaller in 2060 than if immigration continues at the current level.

While immigration has a large effect on population size, it has only a small effect on the aging of society. At the current level of net immigration, 61 percent of the nation’s population will be of working age (15-66) in 2060, compared to 60 percent if net immigration were 300,000 a year. If immigration was doubled to 3.2 million a year (2.5 million net), it would only raise the working-age share of the population one additional percentage point, to 62 percent of the population in 2060. However, at that level, the nation’s total population would be 572 million, 272 million larger than it is today. Immigrants do tend to arrive in America relatively young, but they grow older just like native-born Americans. Immigrants admitted today become tomorrow’s retirees. And although they tend to have somewhat larger families than natives, the differences are not large enough to significantly change the nation’s age structure. As a result, immigration makes for a much larger population and more densely settled country, but can have only a small effect on the aging of society.

The debate over immigration should not be whether it makes for a much larger population — without question it does. The debate over immigration should also not be whether it has a large impact on the aging of society — without question it does not. The central question this study raises and that Americans must answer is what costs and benefits come with having a much larger population and a more densely settled country. Some foresee a deteriorating quality of life with a larger population, including its impact on such things as pollution, congestion, loss of open spaces, and sprawl. Others may feel that a much larger population will create more opportunities for businesses, workers, and consumers. These projections do not resolve those questions. What the projections do tell us is where we are headed as a country. The question for the nation is: Do we wish to go there?

We cannot think beyond the next election cycle.we think only in a sports win-lose mentality. We cannot imagine a nation THAT large. We cannot imagine the systems and procedures that we must develop to ensure that our economy, democracy, values and strengths remain vibrant... We cannot think that far ahead, but somebody must... If not our "National Thought Leaders", then who?


Illegal Immigration

Some people have already considered the consequences of their economic situation and decided that they want their children to grow up in "the land of the free and the home of the brave"... They have voted with their feet. Small towns across the Midwest have welcomed the waves of immigrants, legal and illegal. The current political mess shows only that our "leaders" would rather hide than deal with the subject.

MARSHALLTOWN, IOWA — Everyone knew they were there, doing dirty and dangerous work in the massive meatpacking plant. They had come a long way — more than 1,000 miles, from impoverished rural Mexico to the lush corn country of the Midwest. Some folks looked the other way, others offered a helping hand.

This town in the heart of middle America that has been transformed — even rejuvenated — by immigration stands as a symbol of the agonizing predicaments and pressures faced by many communities today.

As the latest crop of presidential candidates crisscrosses Iowa, their speeches bristling with catch phrases about the border, Marshalltown is confronting the real-life consequences of a problem whose roots are far away.

And the town can't thrive without immigrants. The dramatic growth in the Hispanic population — from a few hundred in 1990 to perhaps as much as 20 percent of the 26,000 residents now — has pumped new blood into this aging rural community.

"The leaders know darn well this town would really be suffering if not for the influx of refugees," says Mark Grey, a University of Northern Iowa professor and immigration expert. "They can wax nostalgic for the good old days, but the good old days are gone."

After the December raid — one of six at Swift plants across the country — federal agents returned in July. They made five more arrests, including a union representative and a human resources manager who allegedly coached an illegal immigrant on how to apply for a job using a fake name and documents.

This is an issue that will not go away. What is the carrying capacity of the United States? How mny people can we support? What do we do about the millions of people whoa re here illegally? How do we support our aging population? How do we support the whiny boomer's in their dotage? what will happen to Social Security, Medicare, Medicade, prices, taxes, insurance rates etc. in a nation with an aging and declining population?

When will a leader emerge to confront these issues? We keep electing "leaders" who get to Washington and become "sheep"... Or maybe we should simply focus on keeping the entrepreneurial spirit alive and let American ingenuity combine with immigrant ingenuity to decide what the future will look like...

"Slimed"

Democrat Congress persons were shocked-surprised-dismayed-annoyed-angry (?) to find that their audiences in Iraq had received information about their previous statements.

The sheets of paper seemed to be everywhere the lawmakers went in the Green Zone, distributed to Iraqi officials, U.S. officials and uniformed military of no particular rank. So when Rep. James P. Moran Jr. (D-Va.) asked a soldier last weekend just what he was holding, the congressman was taken aback to find out.

In the soldier's hand was a thumbnail biography, distributed before each of the congressmen's meetings in Baghdad, which let meeting participants such as that soldier know where each of the lawmakers stands on the war. "Moran on Iraq policy," read one section, going on to cite some the congressman's most incendiary statements, such as, "This has been the worst foreign policy fiasco in American history."

"This is beyond parsing. This is being slimed in the Green Zone," Tauscher said of her bio.

More than two dozen House members and senators have used the August recess to travel to Iraq in the hope of getting a firsthand view of the war ahead of commanding Gen. David H. Petraeus's progress report in two weeks on Capitol Hill. But it appears that the trips have been as much about Iraqi and U.S. officials sizing up Congress as the members of Congress sizing up the war.

Tauscher called it "the Green Zone fog."

"Spin City," Moran grumbled. "The Iraqis and the Americans were all singing from the same song sheet, and it was deliberately manipulated."

But even such tight control could not always filter out the bizarre world inside the barricades. At one point, the three were trying to discuss the state of Iraqi security forces with Iraq's national security adviser, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, but the large, flat-panel television set facing the official proved to be a distraction. Rubaie was watching children's cartoons.

When Moran asked him to turn it off, Rubaie protested with a laugh and said, "But this is my favorite television show," Moran recalled.

I don't disagree it was an odd moment, but I did take a deep breath and say, 'Wait a minute, at least they are using the latest technology, and they are monitoring the world,' " Porter said. "But, yes, it was pretty annoying." (Professional level "Spin" -Just that easy. Don't try it at home.)

It was the bio sheets that seemed to annoy the members of Congress the most. Just who assembled them is not clear. E-mails to U.S. Central Command's public affairs office in Baghdad this week went unanswered.

"I had never seen that in the past. That's new," said Porter, who was on his fourth trip to Iraq. "Now I want to see what they're saying about me," he added, when he learned of the contents of his travel companions' rap sheets.

Read the whole article. It's short... But almost incoherent. The PROFESSIONAL JOURNALISTS at the Washington Post spent more column inches trying to spin the story than in answering some of the Journalism 101 questions such as "Who, What, When, Where, Why, " and the story was definitely NOT encapsulated in the first paragraph.... I guess it's the professionals doing something us amateurs cannot possibly fathom...

Chris Muir who draws the "Day by Day" comic strip did a much better job in only three panels... You should read his stuff every day... It puts the NYTimes and WAPost daily headlines into brilliant perspective... Much, Much better than Gary Trudeau, even way back when he actually cared.

Coffeyville, KS

Coffeyville, Kansas


The waters arrived. The rain kept falling and rivers overflowed. The ground could not soak up all the water.

This spring 42,000 gallons of oil was spilled during the floods. The refinery has offered to purchase over 300 homes damaged by the flood. They are offering 110% of the pre-flood market value. They are also advising homeowners that their insurance obligation is limited to home clean-up and removal of the first 9 inches of topsoil. Not surprisingly, some owners are not selling.

The entire Kansas-Oklahoma area is now flooded with government agents, clean-up crews, testing crews, and inspection services to certify that the clean-up crews, testing crews and reclamation teams are doing their job. Crews from Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi that have had too much experience with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina are filling the hotels, doing a great job and making a lot of money.

Some parts of fields and towns look as if nothing ever happened. The fields and hills are green and lush. If you look closely, you can see crops that were pushed over and left. The locals tell that the water has soaked down and baked hard the clay.. Any more rain will just flood off immediately. After taking care of the citizens, the refinery-insurance-clean-up crews are now headed towards taking off the topsoil and replacing it... The lawyers in Texas are still working on their downstream reclamation and recovery issues


Before the floods, the biggest event to hit the Coffeyville area was the Dalton Gang. Old Town Coffeyville doesn't seem to have changed much in the last 100 years. The sun is still too hot in August. There are still too few people in this part of the world. The streets are deserted after nine in the morning.


HISTORY

Founded in 1869 as an Indian trading post by Col. James A. Coffey, serving the population across the Oklahoma border in what was then the Indian Territory, the town was confirmed and expanded by the arrival of the Leavenworth, Lawrence & Galveston railroad in 1871. With the arrival of the railroad, a young surveyor, Napoleon B. Blanton, was dispatched to lay out the town. The naming of the town was left to the toss of a coin between Col. Coffey and U.S. Army Captain Blanton. Blanton lost the toss and the town was officially named Coffeyville.

Incorporated in 1872, the charter was voided, and the city was re-incorporated in March of 1873.

Coffeyville's most famous moment may have been the end of the Dalton Gang: on October 5, 1892, four of the gang were killed while Emmett Dalton survived with 23 gunshot wounds and was imprisoned for 14 years before being pardoned. They had been attempting to rob two banks, First National Bank and Condon Bank, at once when the citizens recognized them under the fake beards they were wearing and fought them after coming out of one of the banks. Three citizens, including a U.S. marshal, Marshal Charles T. Connelly, died in defense of the town.

The Dalton Gang:

Beginnings

The Dalton family came from Jackson County, Missouri. Lewis Dalton was a saloon keeper in Kansas City, Kansas, when he married Adeline Younger, the aunt of Cole and Jim Younger. By 1882, the family lived in northeast Oklahoma, then known as the Indian Territory, and by 1886 they had moved to Coffeyville in southeast Kansas. When the Oklahoma Territory opened for settlement in 1889, the family claimed homestead land near Kingfisher. Thirteen of the couple's 15 children survived to maturity.

Lawmen

One son, Frank Dalton, was a deputy United States Marshal who was killed in the line of duty in 1887. Frank had been the most stable of the brothers, well grounded and mature. He had been tracking a horse thief in the Oklahoma Territory. When he located the suspect on November 27, 1887, he confronted him and a shootout erupted, resulting in Dalton being killed. One week later, on December 3, 1887, the suspect was tracked by other lawmen, and another shootout erupted. In that second shootout, Deputy U.S. Marshal Ed Stokley shot and wounded the suspect, who then shot and killed Stokley. Other deputy U.S. Marshals returned fire, killing the suspect.

Perhaps hoping to avenge their brother's death, the three younger Dalton boys—Gratton "Grat" Dalton (b. 1861), Bob Dalton (b. 1869), and Emmett Dalton (b. 1871)—became lawmen. But in 1890, the boys moved to the other side of the law. Bob was always the wildest one. He killed a man for the first time when he was just 19. He was a deputy U.S. Marshal at the time and claimed the killing was in the line of duty. Some suspected, however, that the victim had tried to take away Bob's girlfriend. In March 1890, Bob was charged with introducing liquor into the Indian Territory, but he jumped bail and did not appear for his trial. In September 1890, Grat was arrested for stealing horses— a capital offense—but either the charges were dropped or he was released. Discredited as lawmen, the Daltons soon formed their first gang.

Outlaws

Bob recruited George "Bitter Creek" Newcomb, Bill McElhanie, and Blackfaced Charley Bryant to ride with him and his brother Emmett. Bryant received his nickname because of a gunpowder burn on one cheek. Grat was visiting his brother Bill in California when the gang was formed, but joined it later, as did Bill Doolin, Dick Broadwell, and Bill Powers. Their first robbery target was a gambling house in Silver City, New Mexico.

On February 6, 1891, after Bob Dalton had joined his brothers in California, a Southern Pacific Railroad passenger train was held up. The Daltons were accused of the robbery, based on little evidence. Bob escaped and Bill was acquitted, but Grat was arrested, convicted, and given a 20-year prison sentence. According to one account, Grat was handcuffed to one deputy and accompanied by another while being transferred by train. After the train had gone some distance, one deputy fell asleep and the other busied himself talking to other passengers. It was a hot day, and all the windows were open. Suddenly, Grat jumped up and dived head first out of the train window. He landed in the San Joaquin River, disappeared under water, and was carried downstream by the current. The deputies were astounded. Grat must have taken the key to the handcuffs from the first deputy's pocket as he slept and then timed his escape to take place when he knew the train would be on a bridge. If he had landed on the ground, he would almost certainly have been killed. Grat found his brothers, and they made their way back to Oklahoma Territory.

Between May 1891 and July 1892, the Dalton brothers robbed four trains in the Indian Territory. On May 9, 1891, the men held up a Santa Fe train at Wharton (now Perry). They got away with several hundred dollars, only, but they had worked well as a team. As they passed Orlando, they stole eight or nine horses. A posse chased them, but the gang escaped.

Four months later the Dalton gang robbed a train of $10,000 at Lillietta, Indian Territory. In June 1892, they stopped another Santa Fe train, this time at Red Rock. Blackfaced Charley Bryant and Dick Broadwell held the engineer and fireman in the locomotive. Bob and Emmett Dalton and Bill Powers walked through the passenger cars, robbing the passengers as they went. Bill Doolin and Grat Dalton took on the express car. They threw the safe out of the train. They gained little for their efforts—a few hundred dollars and some watches and jewelry from the passengers. The gang scattered after the Red Rock robbery, but soon Blackfaced Charley was caught and killed in an escape attempt.

The gang struck again in July at Adair, Oklahoma, near the Arkansas border. They went directly to the train station and took what they could find in the express and baggage rooms. Then they sat down on a bench on the platform, talking and smoking, with their Winchester rifles across their knees. When the train came in at 9:45 p.m., they backed a wagon up to the express car and unloaded all the contents. There were several armed guards on the train, but for some reason all 11 men were at the back of the train. The guards fired at the bandits through the car windows and from behind the train. In the gun fight, 200 shots were fired. None of the Dalton gang was hit. Three guards were wounded, and a town doctor was killed by a stray bullet. The robbers dropped out of sight, probably hiding out in one of several caves near Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Failed bank robbery

The gang could have kept themselves busy with train robberies, but Bob Dalton wanted to make sure his name would long be remembered. He would, he claimed, "beat anything Jesse James ever did—rob two banks at once, in broad daylight." On October 5, 1892, the Dalton gang attempted this feat when they set out to rob the C.M. Condon & Company's Bank and the First National Bank in Coffeyville, Kansas. Since the locals were aware of what they looked like, they wore fake beards. But they were still identified by one of the townspeople.

While the gang was busy trying to hold up the banks, the people armed themselves and prepared for a gun battle. When the gang exited the banks, a shootout began. There were three townspeople shot, and town Marshal Charles Connelly was killed when he ran into the street after hearing gunfire. Grat Dalton, Bob Dalton, Dick Broadwell and Bill Powers were killed. Emmett Dalton received 23 gunshot wounds and survived. He was given a life sentence in the Kansas penitentiary in Lansing, Kansas, of which he served 14 years before being pardoned. He moved to California and became a real estate agent, author and actor, and died in 1937 at age 66. Bill Doolin, "Bitter Creek" Newcomb, and Charlie Pierce were the only members left of the Dalton Gang, although none was present at the Coffeyville shootout. Speculation later suggested that there had been a sixth man holding horses in an alleyway and that he had escaped, and that man was believed to have been Bill Doolin. However, that has never been confirmed.

TODAY

Here should be some recent photos of the present day old parts of town. (Blogger-a wholly owned subsidiary of Google, refuses to put my photos where I want them) The old Condon Bank sits across the street from the new one. The town square has a memorial and some benches. But otherwise, it's easy to imagine the town with wagons, buggies and horseback riders 100 years ago. The past is very close here...

The Daltons are never portrayed as noble, heroic or even brave. They were thieves who planned to steal the money and kill whoever got in their way. There was no Federal Deposit insurance, no Federal Reserve, not even much financial reserve. If the bank went broke, the town went broke. The cash the bank held was the citizens cash. It's loss meant nothing in the savings, no cash to lubricate the wheels of commerce, no money to even repay the bank loans. Buyers couldn't buy and sellers couldn't sell. That is why the citizens got involved. They were fighting for their economic life. The Museum refers to the "Defenders of Coffeyville" who died saving the town. In the real Old West outlaws were never romantic icons.

The prosperity that followed in the early part of the century has faded. There are empty old buildings everywhere... Rents are cheap. There just aren't that many people in small town America any more....

There is a lot of money in these small towns. Most have several competing banks, both local and branches of national franchises. There are depositors, lenders, and entrepreneurs. The bankers are more accessible, more friendly and know much more about their smaller depositors and creditors than in the big cities or with the national bank chains.


Most of the businesses are farms. It is rare to find a farmer that lives solely off the land. They drive trucks, drive heavy equipment moving dirt, clearing land, harvesting crops, repairing the equipment, selling used equipment, building fences, building barns, building the pens and out buildings as well as all the farm appliances, etc... Their wives most often work in town. They work at WalMart, the hospital, for the county or city, the cable company, the telephone company, the power company...all of whom pay modest wages but provide good health benefits. Everybody's kids go to the same schools. On Friday night, the entire community gathers to watch the football or basketball games. They may not all be in church on Sunday. However, there are several competing churches that are appear to be doing a fine retail business.

The ghosts of cowboys, outlaws, bankers, lawmen, townspeople, farmers and ranchers live on in America's small towns... If you haven't been, you should visit some of the small towns in the middle of the nation. There is much to recommend... Interesting history, interesting people, good food, reasonable prices, lots of blue sky and open country...

The past isn't always as it was written and taught. Getting out of the Disney-Hollywood myth and visiting the places where the events happened is good. Seeing America without the gloss, hype and spin is a wonderful way to find things about our present, as well as the past. With just a little imagination you may even see.a ghost or two out on the horizon just at sundown or sunrise, when light and day change positions...

As Roy Rogers sang so long ago.. "Happy Trails To You..... Until We Meet Again"

Miscellaneous Notes

Here's a good idea-!

Airline ala Carte

Skybus Airlines is the future of air travel, then the future won't cost much. Nor will it keep you hostage on the tarmac. The company's chief executive, Bill Diffenderffer, has rethought everything from the cost of onboard refreshments to how and where passengers check in. The result, he claims, is an airline that can charge as little as $10 for a nonstop flight without delays or lost luggage. (Procrastinators pay more, with last-minute tickets costing as much as $400.)

The guiding vision for the Columbus, Ohio–based company is simplicity. Launched in May, Skybus promises to get you to your destination on time, but it has no 800 number, no customer-service representatives, no TVs, not even free pretzels. (Your flight attendant will be happy to sell you a can of soda, though—she's being paid on commission.)

Passengers can buy tickets online only and must check in by automated kiosk. To board, you'll need to travel to smaller airports in places like Chicopee, Massachusetts, and Burbank, California, but in doing so, you'll avoid the air-traffic headaches that dog so many major hubs.

So far, Skybus is flying five 144-seat Airbus A319s on just a handful of routes. If all goes as planned, by 2012, 80 Skybus A319s will serve dozens of cities across the U.S. We caught up with Diffenderffer, who explained to us how an airline that sells a ticket for the same price as a plate of meatloaf intends to fix our air-travel woes.

read the whole interview...

Before 9/11, I was running a small all freight airline. We had plans to move intoa passenger and freight configuration flying between small airports around major cities and lots of small towns roughly 4+ hours distant. Our target market was the large number of business, medical and goverment people traveling out for a day's work and back home at night. Driving 4 hours for a 6 or eight hour work day and then a 4 hour drive home again is very demanding. Most wind up spending the night or cutting short their visit.

9/11 changed the business model. We couldn't find pilots. Investors didn't want to know about airlines or transportation. Insurance rates went through the roof. Aircraft prices spiraled and fuel skyrocketed... (That's a mixed bag of metaphors-!)....

It's nice to see that somebody has found the right equipment, right market and right start-up capital. You can go through $1 million very quickly in starting an airline.

There are thousands of small air bases and air fields around the nation. Many municipalities have struggled to find a use for these facilities. This business model and the coming wave of air taxis will open the skies. At most, the cities will need to build a secure fence and hire some security personnel. Being able to walk off an aircraft, across the small terminal to a waiting rental car will make business travel so much easier. Check in screening will mean shorter lines and your baggage within eyesight all the time.

Of course, the airlines will struggle to find passengers for each end point, pilots and flight attendants to work the expanded network.

GREAT ADVICE-!

"Never invest in any idea you can't illustrate with a crayon."

Peter Lynch

Miss The Lunar Eclipse-? Watch the video

Hundreds of Bay Area folks - both stay-up-laters and early risers - watched a colorful total eclipse of the moon before dawn Tuesday as foggy skies cleared and the moon's bright white surface slowly turned to coppery red and brown.

The eclipse was on full display even in parts of San Francisco - along Market Street and in the Mission, for example - but fog over the Sunset and the outer Richmond disappointed anyone who had hoped to watch the event.

As scheduled, the Earth's shadow started covering the moon's face at 1:51 a.m. and the eclipse became total at 2:52 a.m. By 4:22 a.m., the moon emerged from the shadow, and by 5:24 a.m. the show was over.

Eric Zeeman of Infoweek.com sends an eMail asking: "Does Unlocking your iPhone Really Change Anything?

The last 5 days or so have seen a spate of announcements from basement-dwelling geeks all around the planet who claim to have unlocked the iPhone. Some have used hardware and software mods, others have just used software. What does iPhone unlocking really amount to?

Not much, if you ask me. In most user satisfaction polls I've read about the iPhone, the $500 to $600 device scores high approval ratings. Do users who are already happy gain anything from unlocking the iPhone?

True, I guess it means they could ditch their AT&T contracts and switch to another carrier (most likely T-Mobile in the U.S.). But that's not necessarily an improvement, especially when you consider the fact that you're losing certain functionalities of the device, such as visual voicemail. And guess what, the iPhone is still restricted to the same EDGE network on T-Mobile as it is on AT&T. It is restricted to EDGE no matter what network it is used with.

Detaching it from the AT&T network is one thing. But total software control is another. Apple misstepped when it made the iPhone such a closed system. While I can see Steve Jobs' point of view (that he wanted users to have a stable experience and third-party applications could cause potential issues for the iPhone), I don't think it is an entirely valid argument. Sure, there is a lot of potential for some cool iPhone applications. We've already seen some interesting workarounds via the browser. I trust Apple to develop good applications itself, however, and pass them down to the iPhone when they are ready.

Another thing to consider, are there really that many people waiting to buy an iPhone that is unlocked, free of AT&T's network, and free to be modded and hacked? How much is it going to cost? Will the unlocking software (which assuredly has value) be available for free or will people have to pay for it? AT&T legal has already contacted several of the groups who've claimed to unlock the iPhone. What legal pitfalls will people be treading, and do they even care about them?

Since none of the groups who've unlocked the iPhone have made the software widely available yet, they have to care at least a little bit.

In the end, I think unlocked iPhones will only satisfy a small minority of users.

Me and Fidel Sorta-Kinda Agree On This One

HAVANA (Reuters) - Ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro is tipping Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to team up and win the U.S. presidential election.

The word today is that an apparently unbeatable ticket could be Hillary for president and Obama as her running mate," he wrote in an editorial column on U.S. presidents published on Tuesday by Cuba's Communist Party newspaper, Granma.

I think they'll be the Democratic Party candidates... Unless Hillary goes for John Warner to get a Southern Hawk on the ticket.... He's been posing as a VP for a few months now.

I don't think/hope they will win the White House. I think it would be a very bad thing for this country and the world were either of them to move into the White House. The world is a dangerous place and they are children on the freeway with guns.

GREAT NYPOST HEADLINE:

HEIR OF THE DOG:LEONA WILLS $12M TO A POOCH BUT NOTHING TO 2 GRANDKIDS

While the Queen of Mean left a kennel full of cash for the plenty-pampered female pooch, she also left potentially billions of dollars to charity, court papers show.

The will leaves a total of $50 million in bequests to Trouble the dog and three family members, and instructs that the remainder of her personal fortune - which Westchester Surrogate's Court documents estimate to be valued at between $4 billion and $8 billion - to the Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust.

Make up your own bad jokes from here....

GIZMODO... iPhone Touch Screen manufacturer Gets Order for 8 million units

GIZMODO... Steve Jobs and VW talk iCar

SF CHRONICLE - GREAT HEADLINE: PREMATURE CONFLAGRATION

Burning Man is burned too soon - arson arrest Namesake of annual festival goes up in unsanctioned flames 4 days early in Nevada desert

The climax of the annual Burning Man bacchanalia in a Nevada desert was scheduled for Saturday, when the 40,000-plus attendees were to gather around the 40-foot-high man-statue and watch him burn.

Instead, the effigy went up in flames four days prematurely early Tuesday, and a San Francisco resident faces felony arson and destruction-of-property charges in connection with the crime of burning Burning Man too early.

Make up more of your own bad jokes from here

Travel Perspective

I travel. Sometimes I travel a lot. Usually by airplane and rented automobile. I believe that good things happen when you just show up... Woody Allen said something similar years ago. I know that being willing to appear several thousand miles distant on short notice changes the dynamics in many situations. As Yogi Berra said "You can see a lot just by looking"...

When on airplanes, I love to watch people. The world has changed since I made my first flight on a Lockheed Constellation. Ladies and gentlemen seldom dress for travel. There is no lounge in the rear for adult beverages.The passengers may as well be going for an oil change or a quick six-pack and chips as London, Paris, Cairo or Buenos Aires... There is no longer a sense of adventure, no sense of magic about hundreds of thousands of pounds of metal, fuel and hundreds of humans leaping into the air and traveling across the world... I am amazed every time it happens.

The folks over at Samizdata.net, led by Guy Herbert have been ranting in that superior smug way that only the Brits can about the evils of our "Security Theater." They find the inconvenience of being inspected an affront to their particular person. They see the randomly asigned dreaded "SSSSS" on their boarding pass as signifying some certain malevolent intent by the Minimum Wage Minions against them for some perverse delight. They cannot imagine that "It Happens" to all of us at one time or another...

I always enjoy watching the well educated and wealthy when faced with delays, frustrations and conditions beyond their control. The truly rich, and truly well educated persons make the best of the situation for themselves and those around them. The ones who demand special attention and special treatment are usually just poseurs who are wearing leased clothing, driving a company vehicle and living in leased apartment.

God puts snow on the ground and airplanes for everyone. TSA makes their regulations for everyone. The line workers are trained, grilled and trained again to deal with the public in the nicest possible way. They have been given instruction by the folks at Disney who have decades of moving large numbers of impatient children, cranky grandparents and insolent teenagers through the rope lines... I think they do a good job... We Americans like to see our security at work. Also, being an American, I am not shocked, amazed, or even concerned that the police are carrying a firearm. The Europeans and Australians always notice the weapon.

Given the above recent exchanges (go see the comments at Samizdata.net... Security Theater) it was a pleasant surprise to see on Tuesday's Wall Street Journal, Front page, Center Column this tale about an airline pilot. This guy is like the ones I grew up flying with. He is a throwback to the people who built airlines, who cared about the customer, who enjoyed their job and loved the daily miracles of a safe departure and landing.

I quit flying United years ago. I disliked their whole attitude of milking the passenger. I refuse to fly American Airlines because of their decades long running gun battle between the flight crews and management. As a passenger, I was paying a lot for the privilege of being an "innocent bystander" or pawn, depending on your view... If United has these kind of guys running things, I may go use some of my miles and buy a few more...

To a United Pilot,The Friendly Skies Are a Point of Pride
Capt. Flanagan Goes to Bat For His Harried Passengers; Still, Some Online Skeptics
August 28, 2007; Page A1

Capt. Denny Flanagan is a rare bird in today's frustration-filled air-travel world -- a pilot who goes out of his way to make flying fun for passengers.

When pets travel in cargo compartments, the United Airlines veteran snaps pictures of them with his cellphone camera, then shows owners that their animals are on board. In the air, he has flight attendants raffle off 10% discount coupons and unopened bottles of wine. He writes notes to first-class passengers and elite-level frequent fliers on the back of his business cards, addressing them by name and thanking them for their business. If flights are delayed or diverted to other cities because of storms, Capt. Flanagan tries to find a McDonald's where he can order 200 hamburgers, or a snack shop that has apples or bananas he can hand out.

Read the whole thing...

iPhone Round-Up

"A man always has two reasons for what he does--a good one and the real one."

John Pierpont Morgan

That seems a wise statement worth remembering... in all times not just these.

It's been almost two months since the unveiling of the Next Great Thing.... Lots of words have been written. Here are a few bits you may have missed....

Businessweek Why Apple Can't Stop iPhone Hackers

AT&T and Apple may face an uphill battle prosecuting hackers who untether the iPhone from the AT&T wireless network.

Apple (AAPL) and AT&T (T), the sole authorized supplier of the iPhone in the U.S., are doing what they can to make sure that legal clearance never comes. The two companies have put their lawyers on the case, applying pressure on hackers involved in unlocking iPhones to try to get them to stop. Much is at stake. AT&T has been hoping that as the exclusive provider of the iPhone, it will see a surge in new customers and monthly service charges of at least $60 from each one. Apple is supposed to get a cut of the revenues. If iPhones are unlocked, they can be used on the wireless networks of rivals like T-Mobile USA—and AT&T gets zippo. AT&T wouldn't comment for this story, while Apple didn't return a request for comment.

Fuzzy Laws

So will Apple and AT&T's legal action deter hackers? Hardly. Individual users are already allowed to unlock their own phones under an exemption to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) that the U.S. Copyright Office issued last November. The exemption, in force for three years, applies to "computer programs…that enable wireless telephone handsets to connect to a wireless telephone communication network, when circumvention is accomplished for the sole purpose of lawfully connecting to a wireless telephone communication network."

What's less clear is whether companies and hackers can legally unlock the phones and then sell them to others, or sell unlocking software. "The law here is unclear," says Jonathan Kramer, founder of Kramer Telecom Law Firm in Los Angeles. "There just isn't any case law in this area for us to figure out how it plays out."

Experts believe that AT&T and Apple will point to the DMCA's section 1201, stating that "no person shall circumvent a technological measure that effectively controls access to a work protected under this title." They will claim that a phone lock is just such a technological measure that protects copyrighted work: namely, cell-phone software.

Frustration over locked iPhones is showing up in the courts as well. A class-action lawsuit filed on Aug. 27 in the Supreme Court of the State of New York tells of an iPhone buyer who racked up $2,000 in charges because he couldn't use a different carrier's network while he was on a trip to Mexico. Filed against Apple, the suit claims the plaintiff didn't know that iPhone was tethered to the AT&T network.

Many hope that the legal wrangling will, eventually, result in major shifts in how the U.S. wireless industry operates. For one, a case could pave the way to making all wireless networks more open to unlocked phones. In the next five years, 10% to 15% of U.S. wireless users could move to unlocked phones, figures Andrei Jezierski, founder of venture consultancy i2 Partners in New York (see BusinessWeek.com, 12/4/06, "Motorola, Nokia Set Cell Phones Free").

WSJ- Catering to Couch Potatoes at the Ballpark
To grab the attention of multi-tasking, gadget-addled Americans, sports teams are rolling out devices that allow ticketholders to watch live action or play trivia. But some diehard baseball fans struggle to understand the appeal.

GIZMODO -iPhone Gets Hebrew Support

Yes, this post is about the iPhone but don't worry, it's not about yet another unlocking so put down those stones slowly. This morning's false alarm by a Israeli newspaper only had one nugget of truth: The hackers were able to enable Hebrew support, but not on the interface, just on Safari and Mail. You can check the screenshots after the jump

Apple Demands High Price From European Carriers To Offer iPhone

Apple is said to be asking for 10% of the revenue from iPhone voice and data usage in Europe, a deal that would make other handset providers green with envy. By W. David Gardner InformationWeek August 24, 2007

Investment analysts have estimated that Apple cleans up financially with its exclusive contract with AT&T, reportedly making $3 a month for each iPhone subscriber and $8 for each new subscriber, according to analyst estimates. Apple may do even better than that with the European cellular networks that are negotiating to offer its iPhone.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs is keeping the European wireless world on edge as he lets the suspense build as to which service providers will get exclusive rights in their respective countries to market the hot phone. Apple is said to be asking for 10% of the revenue from iPhone voice and data usage in Europe, a deal that would make other handset providers green with envy.

WSJ $500-iPhone, $1,100 Case

By YING WU
August 4, 2007; Page P3

(Top to bottom) Louis Vuitton alligator leather, $1,120; monogram, $225; Orbino crocodile case, $319; Incase neoprene sports case, $34.95.

First came the hype. Then came the phone. Now, everyone from big designers to tech-gear makers are selling cases to cradle Apple's iPhone.

At the high end, Italian maker Orbino has one made of caiman crocodile for $319, while Louis Vuitton will stock $1,120 alligator cases in its stores in October.

For those feeling more frugal after plunking down $500 for a cellphone, other cases cost about $30. In addition to leather versions, sports models have armbands and some have UV protection.

GIZMODO-No Good Cheating Girlfriends iPhone For Sale
According to Paul, he bought his girlfriend an 8GB iPhone because she wanted one. He then found out she was cheating on him with a guy from church and now he is selling her iPhone. If the advertisement up on Craig's list is true to fact, our man is quite at a loss. In my books any boyfriend willing to buy their other half an 8GB iPhone, no less, needs some sort of 'Best Boyfriend In The World' award. What he does not need is to be cheated on at any point and salt in the wound; losing his once beloved to a guy from church! (NSFW)

Man, I hope God was existing and watching the whole affair; a fellow from his own abode causing such heartache is out of order and the pair should have to pay. We think he just might have to, too. That demanding ho of a girlfriend of his is going to want a new iPhone before she succumbs to spiritual perdition. (He could possibly negotiate a price with Paul). Fortunately for the sinning pair, reception is good in hell, as that is where AT&T is based. Now ladies, hit the link, call Paul and secure a date; if he bought his last girlfriend an 8GB iPhone, imagine what he will get you on the rebound (NOTE: being originally a posting on Craig's List a grain of salt should be taken with this tale)

GIZMODO- iPod and iPhone Media Download Kiosks Coming January 2008

Although the "upcoming" Zune music kiosk download feature seems obvious thanks to the player's Wi-Fi capabilities, being able to download music onto your iPod or iPhone on the go seems less obvious. However, 22Moo has just announced a date for their iPod- and iPhone-compatible internet kiosk station that lets you download movies, videos, games and music onto your player when you're on the go. The launch is planned for January '08 at CES and MacWorld. (Where will YOU be in January? CES or Macworld? Or Both? )

July 30, 2007,

WSJ-Analysts Ponder iPhone Sales Forecasts

Apple’s announcement last week that it sold 270,000 iPhones in the product’s first 30 hours of availability popped the bubble of several excessively exuberant analyst reports. Many publications (including the Journal) reported that Wall Street was disappointed because analysts had expected sales as high as 700,000.

People get emotionally involved in the product and start thinking it’s going to be a bigger number than it actually is,” said Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray. Mr. Munster initially projected sales of 200,000 over the first two days. But after he and colleagues measured sales rates at flagship Apple Stores in Minneapolis, New York, and San Francisco, he raised his estimate for first-weekend sales to 500,000 — with 355,000 of those expected in the two-day period that Apple would be reporting as part of its quarterly results.

“We definitely overshot,” Mr. Munster said, adding: “The part we’re definitely guilty of is building an estimate from three people visiting three stores over a three-day period.” He projected those sales to hundreds of other Apple stores and nearly 2,000 stores for AT&T, the only carrier to offer the iPhone.

Political Rant

Sunday's Washington Post has a couple of interesting tid-bits...

The first is about Hillary's Campaign working to keep Bill from stealing the spotlight from her... Its nice to see that she is being hidden again...in the spotlight, in the glare of bright lights...the focus will be on him talking about her... SO...will it be about her or about him? ... Every time he appears he diminishes her viability as a President. He sucks the air out of the room and she shrinks. She does not have the ability to stand alongside him as an equal...

When Bill Clinton joins his wife for their first major joint campaign appearances tomorrow, the former president is planning to play the role of "biographer in chief," telling "the story" of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton -- and directing some of his high-wattage charisma toward her.

But can the former president keep from stealing the show?

Already, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has questioned whether the former first lady can claim experience in the Oval Office based on her husband's terms in office. Highly popular among Democratic loyalists, the former president has a tendency to overshadow his wife in public.And, as always, introducing the good Clinton in public hazards reminding voters of the bad, particularly his affair with a White House intern and subsequent impeachment by the House nearly a decade ago

How will she avoid the comparison of Bill Clinton's successes being the result of a Republican Congress that wanted to accomplish something and her being a member of a Democratic Congress stonewalling a Republican President... Do the Democrats even have an agenda? Does Hillary have anything to offer except her stealth takeover of the US medical industry.. (Expanding the SCHIP program to include all kids plus a few adults, + expanding Medicare by dropping the minimum age to 55 + expanding VA care to all who served whether service related or no... with the majority of the country covered by one federal freebie or another, it'll be prudent to consolidate the programs into one big Canadian rationing system... except for the rich...)

The Washington Post had an article examining the role that independents will play in the 2008 elections...

... five types of independents revealed in a new, in-depth study by The Washington Post in collaboration with the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University.

The study is a comprehensive examination of a broad segment of the electorate -- about three in 10 voters call themselves independents -- that is poised to play the role of political power broker in 2008. Independents split their votes between President Bush and Kerry in 2004 but shifted decisively to the Democrats in 2006, providing critical support in the Democratic takeover of the House and the Senate.

The new survey underscores the Republican Party's problems heading into 2008. Fueled by dissatisfaction with the president and opposition to the Iraq war, independents continue to lean heavily toward the Democrats. Two-thirds said the war is not worth fighting, three in five said they think the United States cannot stabilize Iraq, and three in five believed that the campaign against terrorism can succeed without a clear victory in Iraq.

Seventy-seven percent of independents said they would seriously consider an independent presidential candidate, and a majority said they would consider supporting Bloomberg, whose recent shift in party registration from Republican to unaffiliated stoked speculation about a possible run in 2008.

Unless they sit on their hands...... Which would throw the contest to the fanatics of either side... Will the "Kos-Kidz" out number the "Right Wing rabid radio Nut Jobs"-? What role will the Christian Coalition play?..... Unless the independents get off their collective asses they will face choices they won't like. Quite simply; If the party doesn't know who you are, they won;t run anyone who voices your concerns... Being an independent is being UNINVOLVED... why should either party run a candidate that may/may-not appeal to an undifferentiated and uninvolved mass-? The people who voted Democrat last time did so because of the war in Iraq... But what do they know of the war?... What was the Democrat platform? What was the alternative vision offered?....

Rabble can be blown by the strongest winds from one side to the other... No agendas necessary. No alternatives, no competing plans, visions or even ideas.... Just straight out demagoguing lowest denominator rabble rousing-? We will get what we deserve... Who can command the most media? Truth matters not. Lies matter not.... Appearance IS reality.... Oh, wait where have we heard that before?


Drudge reports that the NYTimes will do a hit piece on Fred Thompson's sons in the Monday paper. They will supposedly detail how the children have made lots and lots of money as lobbysists since Dear-Old-Dad Fred was in and out of Congress.... Since he has been out of office for a number of years, why is what they do relevant-? Oh-Wait..... He's a Republican.... And he's NOT yet running for office.... I wonder what other children of actors the NYTimes will profile? or what other children of politicians?... Where is Chelsea Clinton-? How is she doing these days? Appearance IS reality...give the appearance of corruption and its better than actual crimes.... It can be denied and denied for months. A real crime will only be a blip one-week headline... Look at what Congress has done with the non-crime of DoJ prosecutors. Look at the Valeria Plame debacle... Much ado about nothing... A real crime would have villains, spoils, noble causes, heroes, damsels in distress... The appearance of a crime need not have any of these elements...

The Telegraph of London reports that a study shows bbies lying from the age of six months...

Behavioural experts have found that infants begin to lie from as young as six months. Simple fibs help to train them for more complex deceptions in later life.

Until now, psychologists had thought the developing brains were not capable of the difficult art of lying until four years old.

Infants quickly learnt that using tactics such as fake crying and pretend laughing could win them attention. By eight months, more difficult deceptions became apparent, such as concealing forbidden activities or trying to distract parents' attention.

By the age of two, toddlers could use far more devious techniques, such as bluffing when threatened with a punishment.

Are we all natural born politicians.... ?