Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Friday, November 2, 2012
VOTE...Please Vote
ENOUGH-!
I have had it up past here and all the way to there.
VOTE. Please vote... Once upon a time -EVERYTHING- did not require politics.
We did not season our food, bathe with, clean our cars, listen to music, buy clothing, choose friends based on politics... Yeah, I'm old.
I have withdrawn from bloging, watching TV, reading the newspaper, opening mail... all are past habits.
I have my opinion. Listening and speaking with people who, in the words of Jonathan Swift "Cannot be argued from a position they were never reasoned into."..
I ave restrained myself from blogging on the theory that there were too many opinions being developed before your eyes... clutter is just that...Clutter.
So, everyone please vote... Let's get on to the next mess... We will not have someone who can cure everything and make it as it was... The past will not return... We will have either more of the same muddle as we have had these past four years, more abuse of executive/imperial power...or we will have a mess to clean up and new probelms will be uncovered...
The world has not sat idle while we have had our experiment. New powers see opportunity as we retreat and withdraw... We don't wish to be The Worlds Policeman"... Nobody else does either...EXCEPT there is no other nation who can trusted with that power... America is unique in that we really wish the world to be peaceful and choose whatever form of government they wish. We'd like them to have all the benefits and rewards that we have, but that is their choice... We have learned to accept that reality...
Can we get away from politics-? Do we need our fearless leader on our TVs every day-?
Do we really need a cult of personality vs accomplishment-?
Oh well, whatever you do...Please vote.. I have not concern of who you choose.
I trust the American People... eventually, we get it mostly right. It's our fate...we will get what we deserve not all ways what we wish...
CUE: Rolling Stones song...
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Something Happening Here-?
The Atlantic Magazine's Ta-Nehisi Coates is a senior editor for The Atlantic, where he writes about culture, politics, and social issues for TheAtlantic.com and the magazine. In today's blog he cites Alexis de Tocqueville and says he should be part of the Democracy in American canon.
I'll cite his lengthy De Tocqueville citation, but you'll need to read his blog for his thoughts. He does seem to find value here and is honest enough to admit the value, but cannot resist his personal bias towards things conservative... Or maybe I mis-read him.
De Tocqueville;
Centralization easily succeeds, indeed, in subjecting the external actions of men to a certain uniformity, which we come at last to love for its own sake, independently of the objects to which it is applied, like those devotees who worship the statue and forget the deity it represents.
Centralization imparts without difficulty an admirable regularity to the routine of business; provides skillfully for the details of the social police; represses small disorders and petty misdemeanors; maintains society in a status quo alike secure from improvement and decline; and perpetuates a drowsy regularity in the conduct of affairs which the heads of the administration are wont to call good order and public tranquillity; 49 in short, it excels in prevention, but not in action.
Its force deserts it when society is to be profoundly moved, or accelerated in its course; and if once the co-operation of private citizens is necessary to the furtherance of its measures, the secret of its impotence is disclosed. Even while the centralized power, in its despair, invokes the assistance of the citizens, it says to them: "You shall act just as I please, as much as I please, and in the direction which I please. You are to take charge of the details without aspiring to guide the system; you are to work in darkness; and afterwards you may judge my work by its results."
These are not the conditions on which the alliance of the human will is to be obtained; it must be free in its gait and responsible for its acts, or (such is the constitution of man) the citizen had rather remain a passive spectator than a dependent actor in schemes with which he is unacquainted.
t is undeniable that the want of those uniform regulations which control the conduct of every inhabitant of France is not infrequently felt in the United States. Gross instances of social indifference and neglect are to be met with; and from time to time disgraceful blemishes are seen, in complete contrast with the surrounding civilization. Useful undertakings which cannot succeed without perpetual attention and rigorous exactitude are frequently abandoned; for in America, as well as in other countries, the people proceed by sudden impulses and momentary exertions.
The European, accustomed to find a functionary always at hand to interfere with all he undertakes, reconciles himself with difficulty to the complex mechanism of the administration of the townships. In general it may be affirmed that the lesser details of the police, which render life easy and comfortable, are neglected in America, but that the essential guarantees of man in society are as strong there as elsewhere. In America the power that conducts the administration is far less regular, less enlightened, and less skillful, but a hundredfold greater than in Europe. In no country in the world do the citizens make such exertions for the common weal. I know of no people who have established schools so numerous and efficacious, places of public worship better suited to the wants of the inhabitants, or roads kept in better repair.
Uniformity or permanence of design, the minute arrangement of details,50 and the perfection of administrative system must not be sought for in the United States; what we find there is the presence of a power which, if it is somewhat wild, is at least robust, and an existence checkered with accidents, indeed, but full of animation and effort.
Granting, for an instant, that the villages and counties of the United States would be more usefully governed by a central au authority which they had never seen than by functionaries taken from among them; admitting, for the sake of argument, that there would be more security in America, and the resources of society would be better employed there, if the whole administration centered in a single arm--still the political advantages which the Americans derive from their decentralized system would induce me to prefer it to the contrary plan.
It profits me but little, after all, that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life, and if it so monopolizes movement and life that when it languishes everything languishes around it, that when it sleeps everything must sleep, and that when it dies the state itself must perish. There are countries in Europe where the native considers himself as a kind of settler, indifferent to the fate of the spot which he inhabits.
The greatest changes are effected there without his concurrence, and (unless chance may have apprised him of the event ) without his knowledge; nay, more, the condition of his village, the police of his street, the repairs of the church or the parsonage, do not concern him; for he looks upon all these things as unconnected with himself and as the property of a powerful stranger whom he calls the government. He has only a life interest in these possessions, without the spirit of ownership or any ideas of improvement.
This want of interest in his own affairs goes so far that if his own safety or that of his children is at last endangered, instead of trying to avert the peril, he will fold his arms and wait till the whole nation comes to his aid. This man who has so completely sacrificed his own free will does not, more than any other person, love obedience; he cowers, it is true, before the pettiest officer, but he braves the law with the spirit of a conquered foe as soon as its superior force is withdrawn; he perpetually oscillates between servitude and license.
I am reading "Beyond Mechanical Markets" by Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg. They are also authors of "Imperfect Knowledge Economics"
Chapter Two, page 46...
THE PRETENSE OF EXACT KNOWLEDGE
Far from attempting to minimize nonroutine activities, capitalist economies thrive on them. Yet Western economists seemed undeterred by the failure of central planners to comprehend and shape the future as if history unfolded according to fully predetermined mechanical rules. They set out to construct mathematical models that accurately capture how financial markets assess the prospects of alternative investment projects and companies not only today but for all past and future periods as well. Such fully predetermined models and the sharp predictions they produce are the hallmark of the contemporary approach to macroeconomics and finance.
I find the arrival of these two bits of information and others from normally nonconservative, nonindividualist, collectivist view point, political biased sources. There are others... I'll post em as I find em... You can find your own...
This political campaign season, besides being very nasty and personality-destruction oriented, will also be a conflict between the centralized-controlled, planned and manipulated economy and society vs the smaller, personal, private property oriented America of the Constitution and first century... Which will it be-?
I'll cite his lengthy De Tocqueville citation, but you'll need to read his blog for his thoughts. He does seem to find value here and is honest enough to admit the value, but cannot resist his personal bias towards things conservative... Or maybe I mis-read him.
De Tocqueville;
Centralization easily succeeds, indeed, in subjecting the external actions of men to a certain uniformity, which we come at last to love for its own sake, independently of the objects to which it is applied, like those devotees who worship the statue and forget the deity it represents.
Centralization imparts without difficulty an admirable regularity to the routine of business; provides skillfully for the details of the social police; represses small disorders and petty misdemeanors; maintains society in a status quo alike secure from improvement and decline; and perpetuates a drowsy regularity in the conduct of affairs which the heads of the administration are wont to call good order and public tranquillity; 49 in short, it excels in prevention, but not in action.
Its force deserts it when society is to be profoundly moved, or accelerated in its course; and if once the co-operation of private citizens is necessary to the furtherance of its measures, the secret of its impotence is disclosed. Even while the centralized power, in its despair, invokes the assistance of the citizens, it says to them: "You shall act just as I please, as much as I please, and in the direction which I please. You are to take charge of the details without aspiring to guide the system; you are to work in darkness; and afterwards you may judge my work by its results."
These are not the conditions on which the alliance of the human will is to be obtained; it must be free in its gait and responsible for its acts, or (such is the constitution of man) the citizen had rather remain a passive spectator than a dependent actor in schemes with which he is unacquainted.
t is undeniable that the want of those uniform regulations which control the conduct of every inhabitant of France is not infrequently felt in the United States. Gross instances of social indifference and neglect are to be met with; and from time to time disgraceful blemishes are seen, in complete contrast with the surrounding civilization. Useful undertakings which cannot succeed without perpetual attention and rigorous exactitude are frequently abandoned; for in America, as well as in other countries, the people proceed by sudden impulses and momentary exertions.
The European, accustomed to find a functionary always at hand to interfere with all he undertakes, reconciles himself with difficulty to the complex mechanism of the administration of the townships. In general it may be affirmed that the lesser details of the police, which render life easy and comfortable, are neglected in America, but that the essential guarantees of man in society are as strong there as elsewhere. In America the power that conducts the administration is far less regular, less enlightened, and less skillful, but a hundredfold greater than in Europe. In no country in the world do the citizens make such exertions for the common weal. I know of no people who have established schools so numerous and efficacious, places of public worship better suited to the wants of the inhabitants, or roads kept in better repair.
Uniformity or permanence of design, the minute arrangement of details,50 and the perfection of administrative system must not be sought for in the United States; what we find there is the presence of a power which, if it is somewhat wild, is at least robust, and an existence checkered with accidents, indeed, but full of animation and effort.
Granting, for an instant, that the villages and counties of the United States would be more usefully governed by a central au authority which they had never seen than by functionaries taken from among them; admitting, for the sake of argument, that there would be more security in America, and the resources of society would be better employed there, if the whole administration centered in a single arm--still the political advantages which the Americans derive from their decentralized system would induce me to prefer it to the contrary plan.
It profits me but little, after all, that a vigilant authority always protects the tranquillity of my pleasures and constantly averts all dangers from my path, without my care or concern, if this same authority is the absolute master of my liberty and my life, and if it so monopolizes movement and life that when it languishes everything languishes around it, that when it sleeps everything must sleep, and that when it dies the state itself must perish. There are countries in Europe where the native considers himself as a kind of settler, indifferent to the fate of the spot which he inhabits.
The greatest changes are effected there without his concurrence, and (unless chance may have apprised him of the event ) without his knowledge; nay, more, the condition of his village, the police of his street, the repairs of the church or the parsonage, do not concern him; for he looks upon all these things as unconnected with himself and as the property of a powerful stranger whom he calls the government. He has only a life interest in these possessions, without the spirit of ownership or any ideas of improvement.
This want of interest in his own affairs goes so far that if his own safety or that of his children is at last endangered, instead of trying to avert the peril, he will fold his arms and wait till the whole nation comes to his aid. This man who has so completely sacrificed his own free will does not, more than any other person, love obedience; he cowers, it is true, before the pettiest officer, but he braves the law with the spirit of a conquered foe as soon as its superior force is withdrawn; he perpetually oscillates between servitude and license.
I am reading "Beyond Mechanical Markets" by Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg. They are also authors of "Imperfect Knowledge Economics"
Chapter Two, page 46...
THE PRETENSE OF EXACT KNOWLEDGE
Far from attempting to minimize nonroutine activities, capitalist economies thrive on them. Yet Western economists seemed undeterred by the failure of central planners to comprehend and shape the future as if history unfolded according to fully predetermined mechanical rules. They set out to construct mathematical models that accurately capture how financial markets assess the prospects of alternative investment projects and companies not only today but for all past and future periods as well. Such fully predetermined models and the sharp predictions they produce are the hallmark of the contemporary approach to macroeconomics and finance.
I find the arrival of these two bits of information and others from normally nonconservative, nonindividualist, collectivist view point, political biased sources. There are others... I'll post em as I find em... You can find your own...
This political campaign season, besides being very nasty and personality-destruction oriented, will also be a conflict between the centralized-controlled, planned and manipulated economy and society vs the smaller, personal, private property oriented America of the Constitution and first century... Which will it be-?
Thursday, January 12, 2012
New Year, New Wisdom-?
It's not often that my morning reading throws up some good tidbits that combine to make things seem clearer, more optimistic, and generally uplifting.
The World Economic Forum has a list of 50 Risks for the coming year. As Inspector Renault said in Casablanca; "Round Up The Usual Suspects" They have and in keeping with anything titled "World" they have done so in 151 pages (64 in .pdf)... Scan when you can or use your imagination. A good counselor and wise person always starts with the obvious and proceeds to the Arcana. That makes the reader feel wisehttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif because; They knew it also. Still take a look.
Then contrast that with this article from Forbes; "Seven habits of Spectacularly Unsuccessful Executives" It's succinct and we all know these characters in our lives...and maybe we can identify a trait and stop ourselves from wading too far in that direction.
What do the two reports have in common... They highlight that most failures come from human frailty and success. Success stops hunting, stops running in fear of the chasing hordes who will come and take away market, talent, and provide something better, cheaper, easier, and cooler.
Albert Edwards of SocGen has some 11 forecasts... Again, most of which we knew, but it's nice to see the smart and rich people see much the same. This also comes with links and references to other. Have fun.
Watching the Know-Nothings dance around the pyre of Bain Capital is sad and interesting. All the Republicans who deplore growth of government, crony-capitalism and bail-outs of the Too-Large-To-Fail will have a hard time expressing those charges against President Obama when they have taken his side of the argument and savaged Romney... There are many stories in all the media... It's sad. We should be having a different discussion. This is a golden opportunity to educate and embolden American Entrepreneurs and business.
BUT it's also a reflection on our economic education level in America. TV and the schools have spent the last 50 years trashing business and denying that economic rules have consequences. The politicians have convinced many that only -THEY- can save them from the evil rich... Free Enterprise means "FREEDOM to risk your own money. Freedom to lose every penny. Freedom to provide a value for which consumers will pay a premium over your costs. Freedom to get rich." Free Enterprise does not mean a guaranteed anything... No jobs are guaranteed. No company is guaranteed that it will exist forever. No one is guaranteed that they will get rich. No one will have any assurance that they will not waste their money and time in pursuit of the dream. Seemingly, those who would be our Political Masters want to guarantee the success of every American... They cannot do that. They can only diminish the ability to risk much or be rewarded much...
Most people cannot tell you the difference between an "Operating Statement" or a "Balance Sheet". Yet, they all want to be paid more next year. They all want to have a safe and comfortable retirement. But they cannot be bothered with the math, the economics, the tools necessary to assure their participation in their own success. They simply wish to hire someone and sue when expectations fail to arrive. Is it any wonder that we have cities, counties and possibly states that will be broke by this time next year-? Free Money and lots of it is the only answer...as those self-proclaimed leaders hide from the hard details and call for bailouts to make it all go away. Do we have more road to kick-the-can-down-? Some say "NO-!"
Sad... America was once the home of the free...but we have chosen to look at our shoes and accept the words of fools as wisdom. We even lack the ability and initiative to read the books, watch the business channels, look up companies on the internet, and take care of our own future. Our wise-men are flailing about...
Looks like a very interesting year ahead. I recall someone saying that's a ancient Chinese curse. "May you live in interesting times"... Blessing or curse, we seem to have one and there is no way to avoid it.
The World Economic Forum has a list of 50 Risks for the coming year. As Inspector Renault said in Casablanca; "Round Up The Usual Suspects" They have and in keeping with anything titled "World" they have done so in 151 pages (64 in .pdf)... Scan when you can or use your imagination. A good counselor and wise person always starts with the obvious and proceeds to the Arcana. That makes the reader feel wisehttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif because; They knew it also. Still take a look.
Then contrast that with this article from Forbes; "Seven habits of Spectacularly Unsuccessful Executives" It's succinct and we all know these characters in our lives...and maybe we can identify a trait and stop ourselves from wading too far in that direction.
What do the two reports have in common... They highlight that most failures come from human frailty and success. Success stops hunting, stops running in fear of the chasing hordes who will come and take away market, talent, and provide something better, cheaper, easier, and cooler.
Albert Edwards of SocGen has some 11 forecasts... Again, most of which we knew, but it's nice to see the smart and rich people see much the same. This also comes with links and references to other. Have fun.
Watching the Know-Nothings dance around the pyre of Bain Capital is sad and interesting. All the Republicans who deplore growth of government, crony-capitalism and bail-outs of the Too-Large-To-Fail will have a hard time expressing those charges against President Obama when they have taken his side of the argument and savaged Romney... There are many stories in all the media... It's sad. We should be having a different discussion. This is a golden opportunity to educate and embolden American Entrepreneurs and business.
BUT it's also a reflection on our economic education level in America. TV and the schools have spent the last 50 years trashing business and denying that economic rules have consequences. The politicians have convinced many that only -THEY- can save them from the evil rich... Free Enterprise means "FREEDOM to risk your own money. Freedom to lose every penny. Freedom to provide a value for which consumers will pay a premium over your costs. Freedom to get rich." Free Enterprise does not mean a guaranteed anything... No jobs are guaranteed. No company is guaranteed that it will exist forever. No one is guaranteed that they will get rich. No one will have any assurance that they will not waste their money and time in pursuit of the dream. Seemingly, those who would be our Political Masters want to guarantee the success of every American... They cannot do that. They can only diminish the ability to risk much or be rewarded much...
Most people cannot tell you the difference between an "Operating Statement" or a "Balance Sheet". Yet, they all want to be paid more next year. They all want to have a safe and comfortable retirement. But they cannot be bothered with the math, the economics, the tools necessary to assure their participation in their own success. They simply wish to hire someone and sue when expectations fail to arrive. Is it any wonder that we have cities, counties and possibly states that will be broke by this time next year-? Free Money and lots of it is the only answer...as those self-proclaimed leaders hide from the hard details and call for bailouts to make it all go away. Do we have more road to kick-the-can-down-? Some say "NO-!"
Sad... America was once the home of the free...but we have chosen to look at our shoes and accept the words of fools as wisdom. We even lack the ability and initiative to read the books, watch the business channels, look up companies on the internet, and take care of our own future. Our wise-men are flailing about...
Looks like a very interesting year ahead. I recall someone saying that's a ancient Chinese curse. "May you live in interesting times"... Blessing or curse, we seem to have one and there is no way to avoid it.
Monday, January 9, 2012
MOVING...
I have been very quiet. This is because I tend to follow the instructions that Thumper's father gave him, and he related to Bambi; "If you can't say something nice, say nothing at all" ... I lack the active and endlessly childishness to be like Alice Longworth who famously said "If you have nothing nice to say, come and sit beside me."
The Blog-O-Sphere is -? Well, what is it-? Relevant any longer-? Or just a toy for old folks-? Hard to say. Tweeters and Facebookers have their own instant popularity and sharing... The aggregators still do -ok- some few better than the many others who are serving the same watered down broth. a few bloggers are doing their own reporting. Digging for facts and examining the public documents, crunching the numbers... but if cited the eyes roll and some wise person always says "Well, that's just a blog."
Given the performance of the Established, Credentialed, Mainstream, Establishment Media over these past ten years... I am given to roll my own eyes and think, if not say; "Well, you know how objective they are"... Watching the American Idol/Survivor show also-known-as Republican Debates... I can see how shallow their ability to examine and question has grown. The old axiom of "Use It or Lose it" applies to these extremely well paid and brilliantly made up-perfect-hair-people... They have lost it. They are no longer serious people for a serious time. They have surrendered their integrity for the sham of ratings and dollars... I changed the channel.
Watching their questions makes me realize that a question asked tells about -BOTH- speakers. The interrogator and the respondent. Barbara waters asking President Obama what super hero or super power he would have, or what flaws/faults does he have... No wonder they didn't cover the white House Halloween party. Full tilt Hollywood bash with Alice in wonderland theme, Johnny Depp, et al... a surprise-? Only to those who knew noting about it. Seeing the First Family in Louis XIV garb seems all too appropriate and easy...
The country is broke. People have been out of work for years. The President iis assuming royal powers, the numbers are being manipulated and nobody inquires about their veracity... and he has signed a law that allows him, and his military to sweep the streets, collecting any American they wish. They can hold them for decades without charge or notification to family or concerned associates.... Soon he will pop up and seek -YET ANOTHER- $1.2 trillion dollars in debt limit increase...
For those not paying attention; a trillion is one million individual millions. $1.2 trillion equals one million, two hundred thousand million dollars. That is a lot of money... we have already increased the limit and borrowed over $5 trillion...and that is just in his three years in office.
We are borrowing $.40 of every dollar we spend. ... The Adult Media wonders what super powers he would have or what flaws he has-? Something ain't right here. Are there any adults available who can face the reality of our impending disaster-?
See how easy it is to become a political pundit... anyone can do it. I just did...Wow-! aren't I a Pretty Bird-?
I have wondered what topics I can write about. what can I share and still remain, basically, a nice guy who values his privacy...
I'm still working on that...
But I am planning on departing California. Moving to some place more rational. California has been the cultural leader for America most of my life. despite the great people, wonderful climate and feeling of being the first to see "The Next Great Thing"... I am afraid that California will soon show America what happens when a state is financially broke. Nobody knows what happens when a state goes bankrupt. can it even file for bankruptcy-? Raising taxes and driving up costs are one factor in my decision. I am also tired of living on the bleeding edge of every social experiment that comes along... The state is broke. we owe the state employees and their pensions more money that is available. we believe in green-everything- and we refuse to develop the oil deposits that leak-naturally- from the ground and spoil the beaches.
The state wil soon lose the bothersome Pacific Cargo trade as the expanded Panama Canal allows larger ships and larger containers. The shippers, and shipping lines, will gladly by-pass these west Coast ports with their history of labor strife and political football... Hollywood remains a big deal. BUT most of the big money people and movies are owned outside of the state... You can fund 2-3-4 new movies just on the taxes you save.
In short, I see California being 6 months to 2 years ahead of the nation in our cultural rush to destruction. I'm not big enough to float thru any crisis, wise enough to time it, or energetic enough to take advantage of the fantastic opportunities that always arise in the midst of destruction...
Oregon looks interesting. California with trees, but the same social disconnect. Gown v Town played on the statewide level. democrats and unions in charge of everything... But it does hold some interest.
Virginia is nice. No, not NO-VA...that band of communities that border the capitol of the planet. I am over my temptation with the halls of power at the center of the universe. It is not my personality. I hold truth, trust and relationships too dear. I cannot deal secrets and betray trusts for the fleeting advance...The beaches are nice, but...too many people...Lots of humans make me nervous... Maybe Charlottesville or some place smaller--and in the mountains-? Shenandoah, what a lovely song and nice valley...
Florida-? Probably will win the battle. They seem to want old folks. Their tax structure is inviting. The Panhandle is nice. They have four seasons. The sand is nice, clean, soft-like powdered sugar. Not too many people-yet- that will change. Soon Knoxville, Atlanta, Birmingham and Montgomery will be an easy drive... Much like Los Angeles to Las Vegas or The Bay Area to Tahoe and Reno. Plus the air services will grow... Lots of and for homes, golf courses, etc and -ll- those small businesses that support Geezers and their related New Money
I'm up in the air-at this writing.
I am changing my life. I am readng much more than in years gone past. I have rediscovered music...lots of music...From classic symphony and opera, to big band-American Songbook Standards, rock, country, jazz.... So much new to me...and it feels like water in the desert...
Just a few of the things I have missed while I chased leprechauns and rainbows across the world...and never got a firm grasp on the famous Pot-O-Gold... I had finger tips on it a couple of times. I just "couldna make a fist of it" as a Scotsman told me once. I had a good run and some adventures...can't complain or brag, just smile in my Geezer-dom
Suggestions-? What would you do-? If you have read this far then you have some interest.
The Blog-O-Sphere is -? Well, what is it-? Relevant any longer-? Or just a toy for old folks-? Hard to say. Tweeters and Facebookers have their own instant popularity and sharing... The aggregators still do -ok- some few better than the many others who are serving the same watered down broth. a few bloggers are doing their own reporting. Digging for facts and examining the public documents, crunching the numbers... but if cited the eyes roll and some wise person always says "Well, that's just a blog."
Given the performance of the Established, Credentialed, Mainstream, Establishment Media over these past ten years... I am given to roll my own eyes and think, if not say; "Well, you know how objective they are"... Watching the American Idol/Survivor show also-known-as Republican Debates... I can see how shallow their ability to examine and question has grown. The old axiom of "Use It or Lose it" applies to these extremely well paid and brilliantly made up-perfect-hair-people... They have lost it. They are no longer serious people for a serious time. They have surrendered their integrity for the sham of ratings and dollars... I changed the channel.
Watching their questions makes me realize that a question asked tells about -BOTH- speakers. The interrogator and the respondent. Barbara waters asking President Obama what super hero or super power he would have, or what flaws/faults does he have... No wonder they didn't cover the white House Halloween party. Full tilt Hollywood bash with Alice in wonderland theme, Johnny Depp, et al... a surprise-? Only to those who knew noting about it. Seeing the First Family in Louis XIV garb seems all too appropriate and easy...
The country is broke. People have been out of work for years. The President iis assuming royal powers, the numbers are being manipulated and nobody inquires about their veracity... and he has signed a law that allows him, and his military to sweep the streets, collecting any American they wish. They can hold them for decades without charge or notification to family or concerned associates.... Soon he will pop up and seek -YET ANOTHER- $1.2 trillion dollars in debt limit increase...
For those not paying attention; a trillion is one million individual millions. $1.2 trillion equals one million, two hundred thousand million dollars. That is a lot of money... we have already increased the limit and borrowed over $5 trillion...and that is just in his three years in office.
We are borrowing $.40 of every dollar we spend. ... The Adult Media wonders what super powers he would have or what flaws he has-? Something ain't right here. Are there any adults available who can face the reality of our impending disaster-?
See how easy it is to become a political pundit... anyone can do it. I just did...Wow-! aren't I a Pretty Bird-?
I have wondered what topics I can write about. what can I share and still remain, basically, a nice guy who values his privacy...
I'm still working on that...
But I am planning on departing California. Moving to some place more rational. California has been the cultural leader for America most of my life. despite the great people, wonderful climate and feeling of being the first to see "The Next Great Thing"... I am afraid that California will soon show America what happens when a state is financially broke. Nobody knows what happens when a state goes bankrupt. can it even file for bankruptcy-? Raising taxes and driving up costs are one factor in my decision. I am also tired of living on the bleeding edge of every social experiment that comes along... The state is broke. we owe the state employees and their pensions more money that is available. we believe in green-everything- and we refuse to develop the oil deposits that leak-naturally- from the ground and spoil the beaches.
The state wil soon lose the bothersome Pacific Cargo trade as the expanded Panama Canal allows larger ships and larger containers. The shippers, and shipping lines, will gladly by-pass these west Coast ports with their history of labor strife and political football... Hollywood remains a big deal. BUT most of the big money people and movies are owned outside of the state... You can fund 2-3-4 new movies just on the taxes you save.
In short, I see California being 6 months to 2 years ahead of the nation in our cultural rush to destruction. I'm not big enough to float thru any crisis, wise enough to time it, or energetic enough to take advantage of the fantastic opportunities that always arise in the midst of destruction...
Oregon looks interesting. California with trees, but the same social disconnect. Gown v Town played on the statewide level. democrats and unions in charge of everything... But it does hold some interest.
Virginia is nice. No, not NO-VA...that band of communities that border the capitol of the planet. I am over my temptation with the halls of power at the center of the universe. It is not my personality. I hold truth, trust and relationships too dear. I cannot deal secrets and betray trusts for the fleeting advance...The beaches are nice, but...too many people...Lots of humans make me nervous... Maybe Charlottesville or some place smaller--and in the mountains-? Shenandoah, what a lovely song and nice valley...
Florida-? Probably will win the battle. They seem to want old folks. Their tax structure is inviting. The Panhandle is nice. They have four seasons. The sand is nice, clean, soft-like powdered sugar. Not too many people-yet- that will change. Soon Knoxville, Atlanta, Birmingham and Montgomery will be an easy drive... Much like Los Angeles to Las Vegas or The Bay Area to Tahoe and Reno. Plus the air services will grow... Lots of and for homes, golf courses, etc and -ll- those small businesses that support Geezers and their related New Money
I'm up in the air-at this writing.
I am changing my life. I am readng much more than in years gone past. I have rediscovered music...lots of music...From classic symphony and opera, to big band-American Songbook Standards, rock, country, jazz.... So much new to me...and it feels like water in the desert...
Just a few of the things I have missed while I chased leprechauns and rainbows across the world...and never got a firm grasp on the famous Pot-O-Gold... I had finger tips on it a couple of times. I just "couldna make a fist of it" as a Scotsman told me once. I had a good run and some adventures...can't complain or brag, just smile in my Geezer-dom
Suggestions-? What would you do-? If you have read this far then you have some interest.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Truth
I wish that Paul Eckman had been more successful. Perhaps he was. But Heisenberg struck again. Humans being adaptable we have only gotten better at presenting the false as the true.
Finding truth is hard. Truth is time dated. Truth is often situational and based on the perspective of the observer. Truth is mostly something we avoid. We accept words from others as true. We don't examine our own words, motives and beliefs. We swear that we are speaking the truth. Yet, we're not sure that it is anything more that the "at this time" truth.
I have met people who lie as a test of my integrity, memory, and honesty. I have met those who lie simply because it is convenient and short. They see the truth as something that will require a long story, possibly revealing details about themselves or their loved ones best kept private.
When I meet a new person, I almost never inquire too deeply. Why ask for something uncomfortable to be revealed or force a lie-? Let each person sing their own song. If it's pretty, pleasing and accepted then that is all required for social chat.
Words say only 10% of our meaning. Or so I read long ago from an author I cannot remember. Most communication is done by body language. Some say that body language is 60-70% of our communication. Inflection, intonation and phrasing make up the remaining 20-30% of meaning. My Mother-in-Law was a master at speaking in an insulting tone then reverting to pained defense when repeating her words. Hard woman to be around. Luckily she made it clear she disliked me from the start. I tried to be social, polite and agreeable. I was there because of my wife and later the grand children. It's easy to be around people who dislike you and you know it. There is no wondering what you have done wrong, this time or at any time. She was an enigma. I have yet to meet anyone who felt they knew her.
The tale about the Garden of Eden is a lesson that too few actually spend much time considering. It is the first time (earliest-?) we have a tale about nakedness (and idea that something is wrong with seeing one another uncovered), lying and punishment.
I have wondered about that tale often. Some think it harkens back to a time before we began farming and herding for most of our diet. The tales of Cain and Abel are of a hunter and a farmer, murder and again a lie. What puzzles me is the Tree.
Specifically, "The Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil"
Why the "Knowledge of Good and Evil"-? Why Both-?
Spending time around animals, dogs mostly these day. But around horses, cows and chickens as a child, I find no memory of an animal knowing either good or evil... Why-? Animals understand right and wrong. They learn behavior. They know what -we- their leaders demand and expect. We humans also know what our leaders expect, demand, coerce. If we don't we soon find out.
Hitler, Mao, Stalin, Pol Pot, Saddam, and unnamed butchers around the world slaughter and slay humans using the efforts of other humans. Are they speaking any objective truth to convince their accomplices-? Do they simply lie and manipulate their desires to please, do good, help, improve, share the burden of leadership, etc. to convince others that slaughtering the innocents is a good thing-?
Where is "Good" and where is "Evil"-? Most will not see -real- good in their life. There are acts of kindness. But finding, observing, doing a real act of sacrifice for another is beyond them. We also refuse to recognize "evil" in an act and most particularly when it is laying latent, resting, within another. We listen to smooth blandishments and accept them as something true that explains to our naive ears/eyes what we thought we perceived was wrong.
We have had peace for a long period of human history. Europe has not had such a long period with neither wars between nations or bands of roving brigands seizing territory and conquering tribes to claim status as a nation, in a very long time.
Does this mean that Evil is vanquished-? That Good prevails around the world and that only confusion exists today-?
I wish I could accept that. Unfortunately, I have too much background, too much reading, too many associations with warriors to see the world as safe and peaceful.
So back to the original thought; What is "Truth"-? And why do we think we live in it-?
Life is precious. It is easy to kill and ruin life. It is hard to bring it into being, to nurture and protect it, and to educate tthe next generation that bad things happen to good people far too often while good things happen to bad people more often than we wish. How do we teach our children to know Truth from Lie and Good from Evil-?
What was really in that fruit-? Did we eat enough or just enough to grow foolish and believe we can aspire to meet a diety as an equal-?
As I age, I get more questions and find fewer answers... When I was young, I had many more answers and fewer questions.
AS I age, and as I listen-watch-observe, those would be our masters perform; I wonder if it is more dangerous to speak the truth or to simply ignore, cover it or spin it (a polite way of lying)... Which breeds more monsters-? Which feeds their analysis of the speaker/leader's strength and weakness-?
The chattering class who leap in and tell us how to think about what we just heard seem mindless, credentialed-but-ignorant, people who have never walked down a street they did not belong alone and unarmed.
Finding truth is hard. Truth is time dated. Truth is often situational and based on the perspective of the observer. Truth is mostly something we avoid. We accept words from others as true. We don't examine our own words, motives and beliefs. We swear that we are speaking the truth. Yet, we're not sure that it is anything more that the "at this time" truth.
I have met people who lie as a test of my integrity, memory, and honesty. I have met those who lie simply because it is convenient and short. They see the truth as something that will require a long story, possibly revealing details about themselves or their loved ones best kept private.
When I meet a new person, I almost never inquire too deeply. Why ask for something uncomfortable to be revealed or force a lie-? Let each person sing their own song. If it's pretty, pleasing and accepted then that is all required for social chat.
Words say only 10% of our meaning. Or so I read long ago from an author I cannot remember. Most communication is done by body language. Some say that body language is 60-70% of our communication. Inflection, intonation and phrasing make up the remaining 20-30% of meaning. My Mother-in-Law was a master at speaking in an insulting tone then reverting to pained defense when repeating her words. Hard woman to be around. Luckily she made it clear she disliked me from the start. I tried to be social, polite and agreeable. I was there because of my wife and later the grand children. It's easy to be around people who dislike you and you know it. There is no wondering what you have done wrong, this time or at any time. She was an enigma. I have yet to meet anyone who felt they knew her.
The tale about the Garden of Eden is a lesson that too few actually spend much time considering. It is the first time (earliest-?) we have a tale about nakedness (and idea that something is wrong with seeing one another uncovered), lying and punishment.
I have wondered about that tale often. Some think it harkens back to a time before we began farming and herding for most of our diet. The tales of Cain and Abel are of a hunter and a farmer, murder and again a lie. What puzzles me is the Tree.
Specifically, "The Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil"
Why the "Knowledge of Good and Evil"-? Why Both-?
Spending time around animals, dogs mostly these day. But around horses, cows and chickens as a child, I find no memory of an animal knowing either good or evil... Why-? Animals understand right and wrong. They learn behavior. They know what -we- their leaders demand and expect. We humans also know what our leaders expect, demand, coerce. If we don't we soon find out.
Hitler, Mao, Stalin, Pol Pot, Saddam, and unnamed butchers around the world slaughter and slay humans using the efforts of other humans. Are they speaking any objective truth to convince their accomplices-? Do they simply lie and manipulate their desires to please, do good, help, improve, share the burden of leadership, etc. to convince others that slaughtering the innocents is a good thing-?
Where is "Good" and where is "Evil"-? Most will not see -real- good in their life. There are acts of kindness. But finding, observing, doing a real act of sacrifice for another is beyond them. We also refuse to recognize "evil" in an act and most particularly when it is laying latent, resting, within another. We listen to smooth blandishments and accept them as something true that explains to our naive ears/eyes what we thought we perceived was wrong.
We have had peace for a long period of human history. Europe has not had such a long period with neither wars between nations or bands of roving brigands seizing territory and conquering tribes to claim status as a nation, in a very long time.
Does this mean that Evil is vanquished-? That Good prevails around the world and that only confusion exists today-?
I wish I could accept that. Unfortunately, I have too much background, too much reading, too many associations with warriors to see the world as safe and peaceful.
So back to the original thought; What is "Truth"-? And why do we think we live in it-?
Life is precious. It is easy to kill and ruin life. It is hard to bring it into being, to nurture and protect it, and to educate tthe next generation that bad things happen to good people far too often while good things happen to bad people more often than we wish. How do we teach our children to know Truth from Lie and Good from Evil-?
What was really in that fruit-? Did we eat enough or just enough to grow foolish and believe we can aspire to meet a diety as an equal-?
As I age, I get more questions and find fewer answers... When I was young, I had many more answers and fewer questions.
AS I age, and as I listen-watch-observe, those would be our masters perform; I wonder if it is more dangerous to speak the truth or to simply ignore, cover it or spin it (a polite way of lying)... Which breeds more monsters-? Which feeds their analysis of the speaker/leader's strength and weakness-?
The chattering class who leap in and tell us how to think about what we just heard seem mindless, credentialed-but-ignorant, people who have never walked down a street they did not belong alone and unarmed.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Not THAT Unexpected
The headlines from the White House and other news people is that the current economic situation is -unexpected-... They never say -who- didn't expect it. But they sure are saying it often. Headlines from the past two weeks show the use of the phrase again and again. -WHY-?
I don't geddit.
These are supposedly smart, adult type humans. They have told us again and again how smart and capable they are. I doubt they would even be elected as a high school class president or members of the student council with this silliness. This is even below sophomoric. It's just bull garbage-! By being "surprised" they are hoping that that we will not notice that they were hired to -not be surprised-.
Even if they lack the personal experience of the grade school playground, marketplace dynamics, competition...they should know better. Seemingly, they are admitting their ignorance. So, -why should we re-elect them?-
Today's WSJ has a front page about the housing mess. That was a surprise to somebody. I'm not sure why they didn't see these numbers coming. As they say in Washington, "It's politics..." Which means "How can we spin this so it won't blow back on us-? Quick find someone to blame."
The WSJ, today, has a column by John Huntsman concerning our predicament.
"Unless we make hard decisions now, in less than a decade every dollar of federal revenue will go to covering the costs of Medicare, Social Security and interest payments on our debt. We'll sink even deeper in debt to pay for everything else, from national security to disaster relief. American families will fall behind the economic security enjoyed by previous generations. Our country will fall behind the productivity of other countries. Our currency will be debased. Our influence in the world will wane. Our security will be more precarious. "
"Those who disagree with his approach incur a moral responsibility to propose reforms that would ensure Medicare's ability to meet itshttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif responsibilities to retirees without imposing an unaffordable tax burden on future generations of Americans. "
The online journal has a video conversation about what these economic reports mean for President Obama's re-election prospects with John Fund for those who like video. Me-? I like written words... spoken words and video are ok, but not my preference for the computer. OK- I'm old fashioned.
They have a column by George Melloan regarding the -mess- our Federal Reserve Bank has created and how difficult it will be to change things.
Melloan cites this article in Forbes by William F. Ford and Walker F. Todd
"The Federal Reserve has responsibilities and powers that no other American bank has. It can create money, for one thing, without being limited in its monetary expansion by the reserve requirements that bind ordinary banks. Also, the Fed's Board of Governors interprets the relevant statutes expansively as including a mandate to be the "lender of last resort" to the American banking system. "
"Finally, a major portion of the Fed's huge reported profits resulted from its heavy use of leverage since 2007, as the Fed roughly has tripled the size of its balance sheet in response to the financial crisis. By doing this, the central bank ignores the leverage ratios that both U.S. and international capital rules mandate for private commercial banks. At year-end 2007, the Fed had capital equal to about 4% of its total assets, or 25:1 leverage. By year-end 2010, the Fed had only 2.2% capital (now 1.95%), which implies leverage of 45:1 (now over 51:1). The Federal Reserve Bank of New York also now has an astounding 98:1 leverage ratio. "
Even if you have never read an economics book, discussed finances with your banker, or done much more than balance your check book and buy your house, you owe it to yourself to understand the dynamics of the times we face. These articles will be a good place to start. A subscription to -both- The wall street Journal and Forbes magazine would be great. At first, it may be confusing. Keep reading. In a short time all this goobledy-gook will make sense. And you will get upset at our leaders and hired "wise-people". They are fools and do not live in the same world we inhabit.
They have bitten deeply of the poisoned apple and drunk deeply into the well of Marxism-Socialism-Progressive-ism... They truly believe that -they know best- and that we, Americans, will be best served by re-distribution of the wealth of the rich. It is a scam. There are not that many rich people. Soon, their massive government will need to tax anyone foolish enough to still be working to pay for 1) govt employees and their golden retirements 2) all the "poor and needy" that will come in sliced and carved up groups. No more -AMERICANS- just groups all coming together under some mystical leader to achieve something wonderful...
The most wonderful thing we can do is to vote em out of office and demand a smaller government. Americans do not need to be herded, ranched, branded, and coddled so that we can produce more, more, ever more for an ever larger government. Let's stop this next year.
I don't geddit.
These are supposedly smart, adult type humans. They have told us again and again how smart and capable they are. I doubt they would even be elected as a high school class president or members of the student council with this silliness. This is even below sophomoric. It's just bull garbage-! By being "surprised" they are hoping that that we will not notice that they were hired to -not be surprised-.
Even if they lack the personal experience of the grade school playground, marketplace dynamics, competition...they should know better. Seemingly, they are admitting their ignorance. So, -why should we re-elect them?-
Today's WSJ has a front page about the housing mess. That was a surprise to somebody. I'm not sure why they didn't see these numbers coming. As they say in Washington, "It's politics..." Which means "How can we spin this so it won't blow back on us-? Quick find someone to blame."
The WSJ, today, has a column by John Huntsman concerning our predicament.
"Unless we make hard decisions now, in less than a decade every dollar of federal revenue will go to covering the costs of Medicare, Social Security and interest payments on our debt. We'll sink even deeper in debt to pay for everything else, from national security to disaster relief. American families will fall behind the economic security enjoyed by previous generations. Our country will fall behind the productivity of other countries. Our currency will be debased. Our influence in the world will wane. Our security will be more precarious. "
"Those who disagree with his approach incur a moral responsibility to propose reforms that would ensure Medicare's ability to meet itshttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif responsibilities to retirees without imposing an unaffordable tax burden on future generations of Americans. "
The online journal has a video conversation about what these economic reports mean for President Obama's re-election prospects with John Fund for those who like video. Me-? I like written words... spoken words and video are ok, but not my preference for the computer. OK- I'm old fashioned.
They have a column by George Melloan regarding the -mess- our Federal Reserve Bank has created and how difficult it will be to change things.
Melloan cites this article in Forbes by William F. Ford and Walker F. Todd
"The Federal Reserve has responsibilities and powers that no other American bank has. It can create money, for one thing, without being limited in its monetary expansion by the reserve requirements that bind ordinary banks. Also, the Fed's Board of Governors interprets the relevant statutes expansively as including a mandate to be the "lender of last resort" to the American banking system. "
"Finally, a major portion of the Fed's huge reported profits resulted from its heavy use of leverage since 2007, as the Fed roughly has tripled the size of its balance sheet in response to the financial crisis. By doing this, the central bank ignores the leverage ratios that both U.S. and international capital rules mandate for private commercial banks. At year-end 2007, the Fed had capital equal to about 4% of its total assets, or 25:1 leverage. By year-end 2010, the Fed had only 2.2% capital (now 1.95%), which implies leverage of 45:1 (now over 51:1). The Federal Reserve Bank of New York also now has an astounding 98:1 leverage ratio. "
Even if you have never read an economics book, discussed finances with your banker, or done much more than balance your check book and buy your house, you owe it to yourself to understand the dynamics of the times we face. These articles will be a good place to start. A subscription to -both- The wall street Journal and Forbes magazine would be great. At first, it may be confusing. Keep reading. In a short time all this goobledy-gook will make sense. And you will get upset at our leaders and hired "wise-people". They are fools and do not live in the same world we inhabit.
They have bitten deeply of the poisoned apple and drunk deeply into the well of Marxism-Socialism-Progressive-ism... They truly believe that -they know best- and that we, Americans, will be best served by re-distribution of the wealth of the rich. It is a scam. There are not that many rich people. Soon, their massive government will need to tax anyone foolish enough to still be working to pay for 1) govt employees and their golden retirements 2) all the "poor and needy" that will come in sliced and carved up groups. No more -AMERICANS- just groups all coming together under some mystical leader to achieve something wonderful...
The most wonderful thing we can do is to vote em out of office and demand a smaller government. Americans do not need to be herded, ranched, branded, and coddled so that we can produce more, more, ever more for an ever larger government. Let's stop this next year.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Housing Market
I must be dense. The problems with housing prices, new home starts and foreclosures doesn't seem that big a deal. The market keeps trying to act as markets always do. When there is a huge supply, prices go down. When there is a limited supply, prices go up.
Our government keeps throwing money at the markets trying to keep house prices high. The lenders get hammered by political winds concerned about foreclosures, lowered prices, demands for higher quality loans and lots of politics. every politician wants to give away the property to the deserving and needy poor... But that seems to mean that someone has to take the loss. None of the lenders want to lose any more than they must. So, with political pressure, they hold off foreclosing and pretend the loans are being serviced. In the meantime Fannie and Freddie keep spending money like they had it...well, they do now. They have no other shareholders but the U.S.Government. Why do we allow those companies to remain in existence-? Oh-! Yeah, politics. slush funds for constituents and jobs for lovers-du-jour.
In the meantime, New Home starts are not finding loans, buyers with large enough down payments and face competition from older homes, less-than-10-years-old that are in foreclosure... meaning possibly more square footage, more prestigious community, established schools and safe neighborhoods...
Also, underlying -ALL- of the above is the dynamic of demographics. Yes, Boomers are retiring at large numbers. They will likely inherit their parents house at about the same time as they retire. They will have two houses, paid off or mostly so. Will they sell at discount to shore-up and replace damaged retirement accounts-? Will they hold and try to rent them out while seeking warmer climes for their golden years-?
All of this is playing out and would move faster with probably a bit more predictability -IF- the politicians got out of the housing game. Is that likely to happen-? Nope. Giving away the property of others is a great way to be re-elected again and again... plus depressed housing prices slows the migration to warmer, non-union states... meaning less stress from redistricting and new boundaries with un-bribed constituents... SO; Nope the politicians have found some catnip and will roll all over it...
The old saying that "Demographics is destiny" applies here. Boomers are the first generation, in history, whose numbers are larger than the preceding generation and the following generation, combined. That means huge demands for entitlement spending, medical services, and changes in their discretionary buying patterns... They have everything. What will they spend their "play money" aka "entitlement largess" on-? Will they invest in businesses-? some may-not many. Will they get scammed by schemers like Bernie Madoff-? Yes, quite a few will. They have never had money to blow and the promise of secure, safe, outsized returns will be too hard to resist. (I saw an ad in the WSJ today promising 22% return on capital over 5 years.... P.T. Barnum said "There's one born every minute"... WHY would anyone thing they can -SAFELY- get a 22% ROI without taking an outsized risk-?) Most boomers have been "wage slaves" their entire life. They may have enough to remain comfortable as the years come in. However, I'm betting that the sharks smell greenbacks in the water and will soon be swirling about.
While we're -all- focusing on the housing market and return of "stagflation" we are ignoring the -boom- in new car sales. why are cars selling so readily-? GM spun off it's old GMAC in bankruptcy and then bought a new bank to make loans to their new car buyers. Why-? Cause new car sales mean big sales results, a quick IPO and pay-back to the U.S. Government... And the sooner the unions can sell the stock they took in the bankruptcy....then the Unions can turn about and demand more- everything-, cause that's what unions do. When your pension plan is invested in the company you gotta have profits to make investors buy the stock. So, as a union, you can't go on strike, make crappy cars and return to war against evil management and the shareholders and lenders... BUT...Nobody is looking at the quality of the new car buyers to continue to make payments. Nobody is examining -who- is buying all these new cars. Another financial meltdown-? Maybe-maybe not...but the politicians, unions and deal-makers who securitize the new car loans would sure benefit until it collapses...
Housing and automobiles are two huge drivers of the national economy (jobs). They consume lots of resources, require lots of transportation services, and mean jobs for a very large number of people. More than the military, but I doubt they mean more jobs than the combined state, county, municipal and federal government... I suspect that governments make more paychecks and have more promised in retirement.
The cash for clunkers wiped out a bunch of the used car market...so used car prices are up...almost equal to a new car... I get suspicious when I see the market acting in unusual ways... I like the old "buy low, sell high" and "surplus equals lower prices, scarcity equals higher prices" rules... When the politicians fingers are playing in the marketplace, one must be very quick and very clever to stay on the good (profitable) side of the deal. Politicians never worry about consequences...Why-? Cause voters (and our media proxies ) are lazy, have short memories and don't want to dig into the details of why-what-and what next-? They profit from our carelessness... and year after year, they keep doing it.
They depend on our being too busy with our lives to notice how they are robbing us...or they used to... Since they have over promised us into near bankruptcy, everyone is watching where the money goes.... Plus this internet thing allows ideas to flow unfiltered... We can communicate without the usual bribed gatekeepers and media guardians... Do we really need the pretty people explaining everything in baby talk-? Are we really -that- ignorant, naive, trusting, complacent-?
They depend on it. So do the predators who are coming for the scarce retirement dollars available when boomers suddenly have too much time and nothing to do all day.
Monday, May 30, 2011
Risk Assessment
The purpose of good management and good investing is to find the most realistic/likely scenario out of all the rosy and frightening scenarios. As the risk of loss goes up the rate of return must also go up. We expect more for the amount of risk we are willing to face. Natural and prudent in almost all situations. The problem these days is that it is really hard to accurately see what the future holds 12-18-36 months from now. Is it truly as rosy as the Administration says-? If so, why do they "fudge" the numbers-? I say "fudge" because it seems someone is selecting the data that will support their political needs.
http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif
From Yahoo News/Reuters comes the report that "Nervous Investors Demand Bigger Returns".
"The world looks a lot more dangerous than it did only a few months ago and signs are that U.S. stock investors are starting to demand more for the added risk.
With important manufacturing and jobs data due next week, it could start to get even riskier.
That means nervous investors are likely to keep a lid on equity prices this year as they grapple with slowing global growth and a host of geopolitical risks from the Arab Spring to debt defaults in the euro zone."
Are we facing a period of higher economic and military risks. Will our political leaders/masters actually do something responsible and adult-? will we get words and spin or action-?
I have little faith in those sheep who claim to be our leaders but act like masters. Deeds count for more than words. Washington and our politicians generate words by the metric ton. Yet, even they do not know for what they are voting. They know little and careless about the effects of their pounds of verbiage. If it has a good sounding title, then what devilment is inside is fine. Their only concern is that no angry responses come back to them, specifically. Words are easy to hide behind. What have they done-? The Democrats haven't offered any budget proposals for over two years. Why-? Do they lack ideas or fear the reality that comes from standing for something-?
A question I have not found anyone able to answer; " We have borrowed and spent over one trillion dollars in something called stimulus. Have we received as much national economic good as if we had chosen one million citizens at random and given them one million dollars, tax-free-?"
I doubt that most people can tell you that a trillion is one million, millions. That number is simply too large for most of us to comprehend. We are running a debt of almost one million, five hundred thousand millions at present. We are strapped. If we have a national disaster we will be hard pressed to respond.
The usual answers are to raise taxes. But most often our sheepish leaders sell us a tax increase as applying only to the rich. What they do not tell us is that there are not enough rich people to pay for the mess we're in.
Their forecasts imply that a tax increase will bring no change in behavior on the part of those feeling the brunt. we all now that if our taxes go up, much like the cost of food and transportation, we have less to support the lifestyle. It does not take a leap of genius to realize that those who earn less also pay less. The rich own things. Our tax structure is based on income. Their income can be adjusted to earn less with much less pain than the poor or middle classes. As a past company owner I know that if we needed new equipment that cost would come from my income. Same with new facilities, repairs, upgrades, and increased wages. The owner gets paid last. Raise my taxes and I spend more on my company. I doubt that I am the only one who would make that choice.
The middle class has no such option. They are stuck with what they earn. If the company can't pay more then change jobs. But with this current high level of unemployment there are easily a couple of hundred people who will step up for that "low" paying job... So in reality, any tax increase is going to hit the middle class hardest. Our leaders cannot understand that -or- they think we can't. Either way, we're being lied to.
If we raise taxes and they hit the middle class will they demand higher wages or buy fewer consumer goods or simply hunker down and wait for this cycle to end-? My guess is a bit of all. Raising wages would work if customers would pay a higher price. If they refuse to buy the company goes under. A bankrupt company gets no praise for raising wages and paying more in taxes...
How does a country go bankrupt-? When we have no more credit and have refused again and again to cut our expenses what happens-? When a country spends itself into insolvency-what happens-? We don't know. It hasn't happened to the U.S. before. smaller countries have been rescued and placed on strict fiscal austerity budget. Do we turn over our country to the IMF and World Bank-?
So, yes. These are perilous times. Things must change and change quickly. will our "leaders" actually lead-? They claim to be Leaders every two years. Yet, now, when we really need some leadership we seem to be lacking.
http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif
From Yahoo News/Reuters comes the report that "Nervous Investors Demand Bigger Returns".
"The world looks a lot more dangerous than it did only a few months ago and signs are that U.S. stock investors are starting to demand more for the added risk.
With important manufacturing and jobs data due next week, it could start to get even riskier.
That means nervous investors are likely to keep a lid on equity prices this year as they grapple with slowing global growth and a host of geopolitical risks from the Arab Spring to debt defaults in the euro zone."
Are we facing a period of higher economic and military risks. Will our political leaders/masters actually do something responsible and adult-? will we get words and spin or action-?
I have little faith in those sheep who claim to be our leaders but act like masters. Deeds count for more than words. Washington and our politicians generate words by the metric ton. Yet, even they do not know for what they are voting. They know little and careless about the effects of their pounds of verbiage. If it has a good sounding title, then what devilment is inside is fine. Their only concern is that no angry responses come back to them, specifically. Words are easy to hide behind. What have they done-? The Democrats haven't offered any budget proposals for over two years. Why-? Do they lack ideas or fear the reality that comes from standing for something-?
A question I have not found anyone able to answer; " We have borrowed and spent over one trillion dollars in something called stimulus. Have we received as much national economic good as if we had chosen one million citizens at random and given them one million dollars, tax-free-?"
I doubt that most people can tell you that a trillion is one million, millions. That number is simply too large for most of us to comprehend. We are running a debt of almost one million, five hundred thousand millions at present. We are strapped. If we have a national disaster we will be hard pressed to respond.
The usual answers are to raise taxes. But most often our sheepish leaders sell us a tax increase as applying only to the rich. What they do not tell us is that there are not enough rich people to pay for the mess we're in.
Their forecasts imply that a tax increase will bring no change in behavior on the part of those feeling the brunt. we all now that if our taxes go up, much like the cost of food and transportation, we have less to support the lifestyle. It does not take a leap of genius to realize that those who earn less also pay less. The rich own things. Our tax structure is based on income. Their income can be adjusted to earn less with much less pain than the poor or middle classes. As a past company owner I know that if we needed new equipment that cost would come from my income. Same with new facilities, repairs, upgrades, and increased wages. The owner gets paid last. Raise my taxes and I spend more on my company. I doubt that I am the only one who would make that choice.
The middle class has no such option. They are stuck with what they earn. If the company can't pay more then change jobs. But with this current high level of unemployment there are easily a couple of hundred people who will step up for that "low" paying job... So in reality, any tax increase is going to hit the middle class hardest. Our leaders cannot understand that -or- they think we can't. Either way, we're being lied to.
If we raise taxes and they hit the middle class will they demand higher wages or buy fewer consumer goods or simply hunker down and wait for this cycle to end-? My guess is a bit of all. Raising wages would work if customers would pay a higher price. If they refuse to buy the company goes under. A bankrupt company gets no praise for raising wages and paying more in taxes...
How does a country go bankrupt-? When we have no more credit and have refused again and again to cut our expenses what happens-? When a country spends itself into insolvency-what happens-? We don't know. It hasn't happened to the U.S. before. smaller countries have been rescued and placed on strict fiscal austerity budget. Do we turn over our country to the IMF and World Bank-?
So, yes. These are perilous times. Things must change and change quickly. will our "leaders" actually lead-? They claim to be Leaders every two years. Yet, now, when we really need some leadership we seem to be lacking.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Charles II
The Earl of Rochester said it best ""Here lies our Sovereign Lord, the King whose word no man relies on: He never said a foolish thing nor ever did a wise one"."
King of the World seems the best job. So much better than mere President of the United States.
From the above citation; "Obama has always preferred the symbolic authority of the grand utterance to the actual authority of a directed policy—a policy fought for in particulars, carefully sustained, and traceable to his own intentions. The command to kill or capture Osama bin Laden and the attempt to assassinate Anwar al-Awlaki in a drone strike, which closely followed the bin Laden success, are the exceptions that prove the rule: actions of a moment, decided and triggered by the president alone. His new Middle East speech, at the State Department on May 19, was in this sense a return to a favorite genre. "
Americans do not need a king. We do not need to be herded into a mass of bi-partisan compliance. Our native emphasis on the individual as the fount of all government powers is deeply ingrained... Of course, this speaks mainly for and applies mostly to generations soon passing.
Americans are unique among all nations. we can create our own jobs, our own futures, and our own style of both. Calling for us to "come together" is akin to the same herding mythology used by -all- totalitarian governments. Leave us alone.
We are not children. Explain things, reasons for an action.
DO NOT BEND TO PERSONAL DESTRUCTION, treat us as you would another grown-up. -WHY- is this proposed action important-?
If you want my vote, tell me why -you- can do what you promise. Tell me where/when you have done something before. Show me more than a pretty face, a pleasant manner and vague words with unknown meaning... America does not need another President-as-Celebrity or even President-as-talk-show-host. Leave those shallow people to TV and deal in facts.
AMERICA IS BROKE. UNLESS WE CHANGE OUR SPENDING HABITS QUICKLY, THINGS WILL ONLY GET WORSE...
Can we change-? Will we change-? Who has a plan-and- the backbone to weather these adult changes of direction-? Do we see anyone like that-? Is there anyone who can deal in details-?
Is it really that much easier to see the personality and ignore the danger-? Fix these serious problems and then we will go back to eating our Lotus Blossoms...
Do we dare demand our politicians act as adults and treat us as such-? That would be a huge change in our cultural acceptance of the Big Nanny who takes care of us and everything else in our lives. We have become domesticated and are now herded like animals for slaughter.
The boomer generation is retiring quickly. This generation is unique in history. We are the only generation that is larger than -both- the one that preceded and the one that follows, combined. We will be a huge burden on the entitlement system. We will sell our houses and free our capital to pay for living expenses as we head into our dotage. That means housing prices will soon be falling and staying low. Yes, a few will own more than one home. Not many. we are in danger of many more not having a home at all. and little/no way to pay property taxes, maintenance, repairs and monthly running costs... It is going to get ugly...and unless our "fearless leaders"http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif act like adults; it will get worse.
Funny/Ironic how every politician says "Vote for me. I'm a leader" then gets to the legislature and becomes a sheep following when the Judas Goat of their party walks past.
Enough lies. Enough fasle directions. Enough silly numbers that are selected to scare and mislead... be an adult and speak the truth as one adult to another. Fire the consultants. Be yourself. Who knows-? You might win simply by speaking the truth. There is no free lunch, Social security or health insurance. Everything has a cost. Explain how you would deal with it.
THAT would be a huge and pleasant change.
King of the World seems the best job. So much better than mere President of the United States.
From the above citation; "Obama has always preferred the symbolic authority of the grand utterance to the actual authority of a directed policy—a policy fought for in particulars, carefully sustained, and traceable to his own intentions. The command to kill or capture Osama bin Laden and the attempt to assassinate Anwar al-Awlaki in a drone strike, which closely followed the bin Laden success, are the exceptions that prove the rule: actions of a moment, decided and triggered by the president alone. His new Middle East speech, at the State Department on May 19, was in this sense a return to a favorite genre. "
Americans do not need a king. We do not need to be herded into a mass of bi-partisan compliance. Our native emphasis on the individual as the fount of all government powers is deeply ingrained... Of course, this speaks mainly for and applies mostly to generations soon passing.
Americans are unique among all nations. we can create our own jobs, our own futures, and our own style of both. Calling for us to "come together" is akin to the same herding mythology used by -all- totalitarian governments. Leave us alone.
We are not children. Explain things, reasons for an action.
DO NOT BEND TO PERSONAL DESTRUCTION, treat us as you would another grown-up. -WHY- is this proposed action important-?
If you want my vote, tell me why -you- can do what you promise. Tell me where/when you have done something before. Show me more than a pretty face, a pleasant manner and vague words with unknown meaning... America does not need another President-as-Celebrity or even President-as-talk-show-host. Leave those shallow people to TV and deal in facts.
AMERICA IS BROKE. UNLESS WE CHANGE OUR SPENDING HABITS QUICKLY, THINGS WILL ONLY GET WORSE...
Can we change-? Will we change-? Who has a plan-and- the backbone to weather these adult changes of direction-? Do we see anyone like that-? Is there anyone who can deal in details-?
Is it really that much easier to see the personality and ignore the danger-? Fix these serious problems and then we will go back to eating our Lotus Blossoms...
Do we dare demand our politicians act as adults and treat us as such-? That would be a huge change in our cultural acceptance of the Big Nanny who takes care of us and everything else in our lives. We have become domesticated and are now herded like animals for slaughter.
The boomer generation is retiring quickly. This generation is unique in history. We are the only generation that is larger than -both- the one that preceded and the one that follows, combined. We will be a huge burden on the entitlement system. We will sell our houses and free our capital to pay for living expenses as we head into our dotage. That means housing prices will soon be falling and staying low. Yes, a few will own more than one home. Not many. we are in danger of many more not having a home at all. and little/no way to pay property taxes, maintenance, repairs and monthly running costs... It is going to get ugly...and unless our "fearless leaders"http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif act like adults; it will get worse.
Funny/Ironic how every politician says "Vote for me. I'm a leader" then gets to the legislature and becomes a sheep following when the Judas Goat of their party walks past.
Enough lies. Enough fasle directions. Enough silly numbers that are selected to scare and mislead... be an adult and speak the truth as one adult to another. Fire the consultants. Be yourself. Who knows-? You might win simply by speaking the truth. There is no free lunch, Social security or health insurance. Everything has a cost. Explain how you would deal with it.
THAT would be a huge and pleasant change.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Where Are We-?
Like that hoary olde joke about the Fugawi tribe... I sense Americans are asking each other "Where Are We-?" and even more importantly "Where Are We Going-?"
I suppose we need t ask "Where Have We Been-?" Lyle Lovett once sang "You've got to look at what you've been thru to see what you've become"... That's us.
We are uncertain. We voted for "Change" but never knew we were signing up for "Fundamental Change to American society"... We got both, in varying degrees. Now we can only "Hope" that we can find ourselves and a way out. We are not like we were. The path we're on has never been done by anyone in the real world. Only academics, enjoying govt funding, have professed the collectivisation and re-distribution of wealth as a sustainable model. Even then, they assume humans are closer to angels than our own selfish, self-interested nature.
The TARP plan was flawed, but we faced a crisis of confidence in our financial institutions. Pres. Bush doubled down and requested the rest of the funds so that Pres. Obama could have flexibilty as needed. Pres. Obama then got the Stimulus Package and added bits of money. My memory-guess is approx $1.4 Trillion. How much has been spent-? We don't know. The rabbit holes got filled with cash. Some 200,000+ new federal employees were hired to monitor where it went.
I'm a simple guy. It seems to me that handing out $1 Million, tax-free to 1,400,000 (one million four hundred thousand) people chosen at random would have done more for the country.
People would have bought a lot of stuff; new cars, houses, furniture, started new businesses, paid down credit cards and so on. Plus No New Federal, State, County or Municipal employees would have been hired. So, our costs into the future would have been lower. The strings attached ar just beginning to be felt. They now hurt the states who took the poisoned money.
I'm tired and confused by all the funny numbers being batted around. I'm one of those who wants to know what's behind the numbers and what are the assumptions. we're not getting the TRUTH. Every set of numbers has a different source of actuals and different set of assumptions about the future. I've always believed that Revenue Forecasts are Promises. Expense Projections are Commitments. The revenue numbers are too rosy. The expense projections are short on details.
We owe money. We have NO way to pay it back. In business, that would be cause for great alarm. When a company files bankruptcy and you asked the owners/managers "What Happened-?" almost invariably they say "We Ran Out Of Time". Unless we recognize our problems; we will run out of time. when a person, business or country is stretched this thin, they lack any flexibility to act should an emergency arise.
Over 47% of US citizens pay no taxes.
Only 2% of those who do pay taxes pay over 56% of all our bills.
Over 50% of all of us, receive some type of check from the government.
We don't have a sustainable business model...
IOW, We are in deep _______ and know no way out of this mess.
We even refuse to believe we're in trouble.
So, should those who worry stock the bomb shelter and hunker down while we away the inevitable-? If we wait for those who say "Nope, No Problems" now to say "Oh S---!" won't it cost us a heck of a lot more-?
No business deserves to stay in business longer than it's value to its customers.
No country lasts forever.
What do we choose for our future-?
I'm thinking it's time for some more change. Hope alone is not gonna get us out of this mess.
Marxism Fails
You can't re-distribute what hasn't been collected because there is none to collect.
I suppose we need t ask "Where Have We Been-?" Lyle Lovett once sang "You've got to look at what you've been thru to see what you've become"... That's us.
We are uncertain. We voted for "Change" but never knew we were signing up for "Fundamental Change to American society"... We got both, in varying degrees. Now we can only "Hope" that we can find ourselves and a way out. We are not like we were. The path we're on has never been done by anyone in the real world. Only academics, enjoying govt funding, have professed the collectivisation and re-distribution of wealth as a sustainable model. Even then, they assume humans are closer to angels than our own selfish, self-interested nature.
The TARP plan was flawed, but we faced a crisis of confidence in our financial institutions. Pres. Bush doubled down and requested the rest of the funds so that Pres. Obama could have flexibilty as needed. Pres. Obama then got the Stimulus Package and added bits of money. My memory-guess is approx $1.4 Trillion. How much has been spent-? We don't know. The rabbit holes got filled with cash. Some 200,000+ new federal employees were hired to monitor where it went.
I'm a simple guy. It seems to me that handing out $1 Million, tax-free to 1,400,000 (one million four hundred thousand) people chosen at random would have done more for the country.
People would have bought a lot of stuff; new cars, houses, furniture, started new businesses, paid down credit cards and so on. Plus No New Federal, State, County or Municipal employees would have been hired. So, our costs into the future would have been lower. The strings attached ar just beginning to be felt. They now hurt the states who took the poisoned money.
I'm tired and confused by all the funny numbers being batted around. I'm one of those who wants to know what's behind the numbers and what are the assumptions. we're not getting the TRUTH. Every set of numbers has a different source of actuals and different set of assumptions about the future. I've always believed that Revenue Forecasts are Promises. Expense Projections are Commitments. The revenue numbers are too rosy. The expense projections are short on details.
We owe money. We have NO way to pay it back. In business, that would be cause for great alarm. When a company files bankruptcy and you asked the owners/managers "What Happened-?" almost invariably they say "We Ran Out Of Time". Unless we recognize our problems; we will run out of time. when a person, business or country is stretched this thin, they lack any flexibility to act should an emergency arise.
Over 47% of US citizens pay no taxes.
Only 2% of those who do pay taxes pay over 56% of all our bills.
Over 50% of all of us, receive some type of check from the government.
We don't have a sustainable business model...
IOW, We are in deep _______ and know no way out of this mess.
We even refuse to believe we're in trouble.
So, should those who worry stock the bomb shelter and hunker down while we away the inevitable-? If we wait for those who say "Nope, No Problems" now to say "Oh S---!" won't it cost us a heck of a lot more-?
No business deserves to stay in business longer than it's value to its customers.
No country lasts forever.
What do we choose for our future-?
I'm thinking it's time for some more change. Hope alone is not gonna get us out of this mess.
Marxism Fails
You can't re-distribute what hasn't been collected because there is none to collect.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Election Day
"There is much to be said for not saying much."
-Frank Tyger
Today is the day we all get to vote. After almost two years we have hashed the candidates pretty finely. We have endured leaks, gaffs, spin-sound bites, spin and more spin.
By the end of the week we may know who will be our Fearless Leader. I say "end of the week" because I suspect there is enough voter fraud to slow things down and cloud the outcome. I hope I am wrong. I feel I am right.
I think that either candidate will only serve one term. McCain due to age. Obama due to his difficulty in -ACTUALLY- having to accomplish something. Pelosi and Reid will ram thru lots of stuff without consideration of the other 49% of Americans. When these actions fail, they will blame Obama and walk away like the Siamese cats leaving the fish bowl in "Lady and the Tramp"... The cats song applies to them as well.
In any event, we will still be one America. We will have tens of thousands who will do what they believe best for America at the sacrifice of their own comfort. We will also have a few thousand who will do what ever they can to advance their own comfort and ease. They will be assured that "someone else" will clean up the mess... They have lived this way all their life.
I am glad that the contest too so long. It winnowed out some very likely looking candidates who seemed to have the whole game in a suitcase and were waiting for the limo to sweep them to their coronation.
We will have a chance to vote our concerns, pleasures and outrage in two years. 435 Members of Congress and 33 Senators will be up for re-election...
The wisdom of our Founding Fathers is amazing. Their understanding of human weakness and passions was clear and unfazed by any fantasies of human nobility. We are not angels with a few frail and weak among us. We are cowards, lusting for more and willing to do any act for our own success...with a very few angels in our midst.
Tonight, when its all over. Hoist a tall glass of something strong and propose a toast to "America, Long may our banner waive. Long may our people be better than our politicians"... I will... The American people are better than any that we have every elected... We may deserve better. But we keep voting our wishes and hopes instead of our practical demands.
-Frank Tyger
Today is the day we all get to vote. After almost two years we have hashed the candidates pretty finely. We have endured leaks, gaffs, spin-sound bites, spin and more spin.
By the end of the week we may know who will be our Fearless Leader. I say "end of the week" because I suspect there is enough voter fraud to slow things down and cloud the outcome. I hope I am wrong. I feel I am right.
I think that either candidate will only serve one term. McCain due to age. Obama due to his difficulty in -ACTUALLY- having to accomplish something. Pelosi and Reid will ram thru lots of stuff without consideration of the other 49% of Americans. When these actions fail, they will blame Obama and walk away like the Siamese cats leaving the fish bowl in "Lady and the Tramp"... The cats song applies to them as well.
In any event, we will still be one America. We will have tens of thousands who will do what they believe best for America at the sacrifice of their own comfort. We will also have a few thousand who will do what ever they can to advance their own comfort and ease. They will be assured that "someone else" will clean up the mess... They have lived this way all their life.
I am glad that the contest too so long. It winnowed out some very likely looking candidates who seemed to have the whole game in a suitcase and were waiting for the limo to sweep them to their coronation.
We will have a chance to vote our concerns, pleasures and outrage in two years. 435 Members of Congress and 33 Senators will be up for re-election...
The wisdom of our Founding Fathers is amazing. Their understanding of human weakness and passions was clear and unfazed by any fantasies of human nobility. We are not angels with a few frail and weak among us. We are cowards, lusting for more and willing to do any act for our own success...with a very few angels in our midst.
Tonight, when its all over. Hoist a tall glass of something strong and propose a toast to "America, Long may our banner waive. Long may our people be better than our politicians"... I will... The American people are better than any that we have every elected... We may deserve better. But we keep voting our wishes and hopes instead of our practical demands.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Debate
I'm burned out on politics and politicians. The Media have made it very clear that they control the message. That message is "Obama wins"
I will resume my Talk-Back Response to the debate when the transcripts are available... I realize I will lose the nuance of tone, inflection and body language. I don't think that matters as the media will tell us what we saw and why it's important.
The fools on the Hill see the sun going down and the eyes in their head see the sun spinning round... round, round, round... the conversation never stops and never reaches a point.
What is absolutely amazing is the paucity of knowledge about how our financial institutions work. We lack the ability to analyze the problem, understand the solution or see the opportunity this presents for everyone. We are no longer a nation of pioneers, risk takers or even aggressive business people. We have become a nation of wage slaves and shopkeepers. No wonder we flock o politicians who promise us free lunch, free medical care, free housing, free cars...all without risk or worry.
The Wall Street Journal has done an excellent job of describing the problems, its background, consequences and ramifications of the proposed solution. Please read the editorials, opinions and columns for this past week.
Or write me and I'll send you the links. Its all free now. www.opinionjournal.com has been free for some time.
This is the greatest opportunity to solve the Social Security problem, Medicare/Medicaid problem without raising taxes ever to come our way. Our fearless leaders are hiding under the bed and wishing they could vote "present". Others are larding up the plan to 102 pages of crap. i.e. 20% of all returns to be paid to ACORN. That's paying the community organizers more than the small town mayors. That could be as much as $440 Billion in taxpayer money going to a tax exempt organization that registers the dead, the never-living, and mythological citizens to vote for Barack Obama.
Have a good weekend. Watch little TV. Wait til Monday to see which way your stocks go. Only 40 days til election... One would think it was important the way the dirty tricks are being organized and pulled.
Read a good book-!
I will resume my Talk-Back Response to the debate when the transcripts are available... I realize I will lose the nuance of tone, inflection and body language. I don't think that matters as the media will tell us what we saw and why it's important.
The fools on the Hill see the sun going down and the eyes in their head see the sun spinning round... round, round, round... the conversation never stops and never reaches a point.
What is absolutely amazing is the paucity of knowledge about how our financial institutions work. We lack the ability to analyze the problem, understand the solution or see the opportunity this presents for everyone. We are no longer a nation of pioneers, risk takers or even aggressive business people. We have become a nation of wage slaves and shopkeepers. No wonder we flock o politicians who promise us free lunch, free medical care, free housing, free cars...all without risk or worry.
The Wall Street Journal has done an excellent job of describing the problems, its background, consequences and ramifications of the proposed solution. Please read the editorials, opinions and columns for this past week.
Or write me and I'll send you the links. Its all free now. www.opinionjournal.com has been free for some time.
This is the greatest opportunity to solve the Social Security problem, Medicare/Medicaid problem without raising taxes ever to come our way. Our fearless leaders are hiding under the bed and wishing they could vote "present". Others are larding up the plan to 102 pages of crap. i.e. 20% of all returns to be paid to ACORN. That's paying the community organizers more than the small town mayors. That could be as much as $440 Billion in taxpayer money going to a tax exempt organization that registers the dead, the never-living, and mythological citizens to vote for Barack Obama.
Have a good weekend. Watch little TV. Wait til Monday to see which way your stocks go. Only 40 days til election... One would think it was important the way the dirty tricks are being organized and pulled.
Read a good book-!
Thursday, September 25, 2008
This is Serious Folks
Where are the adults-? Why is everyone in the media so ignorant-? Why are our thought leaders so unwise in the ways of finance, Wall Street, the world-? This ain't a TV show or an Oliver Stone movie. There are no "bad" guys... There seem to be a few good guys trying to get in insane and addicted to steer away from the iceberg... I am holding my breath, saying my prayers, hoping for the best and preparing for the worst... What are you doing-?
Watching the hotel TV and listening to idiots babble... I thought several things.... and I'd like to share.
1) Most people have no idea how capital is formed and wealth created. Most people get a paycheck and spend most, save some then buy house, car and save for college. Some get retirement plans pushed at work and take em cause they're free... Outside of paycheck and balancing the checkbook, they are lost
2) Most TV folks cannot do math. They cannot calculate simple interest. They cannot make a budget and know whether they will be able to afford a payment.
3) Our leaders have no clue. Our Senators and Congrespeople are simple fools. They are slightly less able than your average drunk. They get paid to drink but lack the skills of a good manipulative hustler...
4) They do not understand the problem. They do not understand the proposed solution. They just "want it fixed, now" and then they want to blame Bush and/or the rich...
This is a GREAT opportunity for every teacher in America to teach simple business math. Operating statement (and budget) and Balance Sheet... No need for any explanations of derivatives, Collateralized debt instruments or anything suave... Just basic family and business math...
Instead we'll get a bunch of demagoguing and populist rabble rousing...
Watching the credit markets seize up during the course of the year has been an education for me. I suspected some troubles in housing/mortage industry because of the articles in the WSJ and Forbes... I have had several deals crater as lenders got cold feet and ramped up their nervousness rate. I was just quoted an outrageous rate to lease equipment... We walk away when the deal gets stupid. My partner and I have some strict guidelines and walk away when the other party gets foolish.... I saw a big shift in investor confidence when Obama and Democrats Pelosi and Reid sarted coming against the rich... I think we'll have some great investment opportunities over the next 12 months... If you're gonna play; Have a chat with yourself first. High rewards come from high risk. Low risks bring low-moderate rewards...
Just remember when you see the idiots on TV saying we need higher taxes and we need to get the top 1%... To raise revenue, you cut taxes. Kennedy did it, Reagan did it, Clinton did it(well, he didn't but Republicans did and gave him credit) and Bush did it... If they are serious about needing more money to pay bailout, debt etc... cutting taxes raises money....
As Obama told Gibson "Raising taxes is a question of fairness"... It's not about raising cash or paying bills...
Whatever the Politicians do, the market will take it into account and react accordingly. I trust the markets more than I trust Congress to do the right thing in the long run...
I was speaking with someone this morning about the seriousness of it all...and they were quoting TV, newspaper editorials and wondering where "their" personal bailout is...
People doan geddit...
This is not a crisis of bad loans. There are some bad loans mixed in with a bunch of good loans -AND- an accounting rule (post-ENRON inspired FAS 157 lookit up) that says you mark -ALL- assets to market... There are very very few people who buy bundled mortgages. A note representing 1,000 mortgages is not gonna be held by a whole bunch of people... When ONE holder needs cash and sells their note at a firesale-all notes of this thinly traded type must be marked down to firesale prices... This causes some institutions to need much more equity or capital or cash to keep their ratios inline with regulatory authority... creating a cascade affect on all such holders of these instruments... The vast majority (95%) of mortgages are still being serviced every month...
The original plan was for the Feds to buy these illiquid notes and hold tle maturity... These notes represent some value. Right now, nobody knows what they are because they have been written down so hard. Merrill sold itself for $.22 on the dollar because it couldn't see itself raising the extra capital to meet required ratios... The notes are good, but the rules say not... What would you pay for one-?
If you bought a bundle of 1,000 mortgages for $.22 on the dollar and held them to maturity you'd get rich. If 5% (present mortgage foreclosure rate) went bad you'd still have the underlying asset. Would that asset have dropped 78% in value-? You'd still have something worth more than you paid for it. Even at $.50 on the dollar you'd probably make some very good money on the returns...
The issue of sub-Prime notes means first that the home owner is less than good creditworthy... That means they are paying a premium interest rate plus higher fees to get the note to begin with. Many are Adjustable Rate Mortgages that adjust when interest rates go up... Many-many-many buyers thought they would 1) re-finance at higher valuation, 2) sell at higher valuation 3) re-finance to fixed note. Many-many-many home buyers in Bay Area and elsewhere saw low risk-high reward for getting into many such homes and renting them out. Their good credit and renters payments would build equity forever... However, prices quit rising. Rates went up. Re-financing was not an option... That forced many to walk away and caused many renters to get pushed out of homes they where they had never missed a payment...
Freddy and Fannie bought these sub-Prime notes, bundled them, sold em to Wall Street. Took the money and bought more mortgages. Along the way they paid $15-$16M in donations and lobbying to Congress. They also paid their head guys nearly $100M in bonuses and minor flunkies prorated amounts from the top banana... They also had sloppy accounting. If Freddy and Fannie were a truly Public company their top bananas would be in jail... but because they paid protection they got to keep their bonuses...
The problem with all this is that because the financial institutions are holding "bad" paper... They are not making any more loans. They are raising rates and fees and hoarding cash everywhere they can... The affect is all the small institutions are also bumping up their fees and interest rates... Interest rates have jumped three times over what they were a few months ago. Even Ford is forced to pay 7.5% for its prime money...
People saw the institutions seizing up and started to pull money from their Money Market accounts... There was a run on money market funds starting last week. If it had gone unchecked... we would have toppled the world. You cannot pull $1.7 trillion out and put it under the mattress without bad things happening... Money Market funds are not insured-at present- under the bailout they will be.... That should stop the run... BUT since the banks are paying so little on CDs and savings and have limit of $100,000, it won't be long before people move lots of cash from banks to Money market funds for higher rates and unlimited protection... Ultimately this will drive up mortgage rates... at same time as excess inventory drives down prices... (average home price dropped 11% in August following a 5% drop in July)....
If the financial market seizes up... The ONLY availbe funds will be what people have in their hands and bank accounts... Credit cards won't work... Lines of Credit won't work, home equity notes will be called or rates raised, lines of credit based on home equity will stop... all small business working capital will be based on cashflow... Customers will have to pay COD for all deliveries or shipments... There will be no new loans for vehicles or equipment...
The Bailout is to lubricate the economy-not take on bad loans- They are "bad" only because nobody will buy one at anywhere near their full value...once a few are bought then the mark-to-market action will raise all boats... Balance Sheets will have lots of higher valued assets plus cash and equity... Loans will flow... and credit standards will be raised but loans will be made-homes will start to be bought which will stabilize their values and stop the decline...
Doing nothing is to jump off a cliff...larding up the bill with crap will do nothing to solve the problem short term and will screw things up long term...
AIG insured the loans. They had insurance policy that said the bundled notes would be good... all the claims forced because the mark-to-market criteria was forcing AIG to pay out... Again a run on the insurance company... The Bailout would raise the value of the bundles and reduce the AIG exposure... The present "bailout" is merely a standby loan with warrants that convert to 80% of the stock...diluting the present Shareholders and making the Feds VERY RICH...
Cash is King... "He who got gold make rule"... Congress has the gold...their rules will decide if we go forward or backward... This is a financial problem that needs a financial solution. Unfortunately, I fear we may get a political solution along with a financial one.
This is serious... it can be worse.... It should get better if we can get some adults in the room to speak up... Not Barney Frank and Chris Dodd... They are clowns who have no clue and care less...
So... Tell me if I'm reading this wrong-? Tell me where/what I need to understand better...
Watching the hotel TV and listening to idiots babble... I thought several things.... and I'd like to share.
1) Most people have no idea how capital is formed and wealth created. Most people get a paycheck and spend most, save some then buy house, car and save for college. Some get retirement plans pushed at work and take em cause they're free... Outside of paycheck and balancing the checkbook, they are lost
2) Most TV folks cannot do math. They cannot calculate simple interest. They cannot make a budget and know whether they will be able to afford a payment.
3) Our leaders have no clue. Our Senators and Congrespeople are simple fools. They are slightly less able than your average drunk. They get paid to drink but lack the skills of a good manipulative hustler...
4) They do not understand the problem. They do not understand the proposed solution. They just "want it fixed, now" and then they want to blame Bush and/or the rich...
This is a GREAT opportunity for every teacher in America to teach simple business math. Operating statement (and budget) and Balance Sheet... No need for any explanations of derivatives, Collateralized debt instruments or anything suave... Just basic family and business math...
Instead we'll get a bunch of demagoguing and populist rabble rousing...
Watching the credit markets seize up during the course of the year has been an education for me. I suspected some troubles in housing/mortage industry because of the articles in the WSJ and Forbes... I have had several deals crater as lenders got cold feet and ramped up their nervousness rate. I was just quoted an outrageous rate to lease equipment... We walk away when the deal gets stupid. My partner and I have some strict guidelines and walk away when the other party gets foolish.... I saw a big shift in investor confidence when Obama and Democrats Pelosi and Reid sarted coming against the rich... I think we'll have some great investment opportunities over the next 12 months... If you're gonna play; Have a chat with yourself first. High rewards come from high risk. Low risks bring low-moderate rewards...
Just remember when you see the idiots on TV saying we need higher taxes and we need to get the top 1%... To raise revenue, you cut taxes. Kennedy did it, Reagan did it, Clinton did it(well, he didn't but Republicans did and gave him credit) and Bush did it... If they are serious about needing more money to pay bailout, debt etc... cutting taxes raises money....
As Obama told Gibson "Raising taxes is a question of fairness"... It's not about raising cash or paying bills...
Whatever the Politicians do, the market will take it into account and react accordingly. I trust the markets more than I trust Congress to do the right thing in the long run...
I was speaking with someone this morning about the seriousness of it all...and they were quoting TV, newspaper editorials and wondering where "their" personal bailout is...
People doan geddit...
This is not a crisis of bad loans. There are some bad loans mixed in with a bunch of good loans -AND- an accounting rule (post-ENRON inspired FAS 157 lookit up) that says you mark -ALL- assets to market... There are very very few people who buy bundled mortgages. A note representing 1,000 mortgages is not gonna be held by a whole bunch of people... When ONE holder needs cash and sells their note at a firesale-all notes of this thinly traded type must be marked down to firesale prices... This causes some institutions to need much more equity or capital or cash to keep their ratios inline with regulatory authority... creating a cascade affect on all such holders of these instruments... The vast majority (95%) of mortgages are still being serviced every month...
The original plan was for the Feds to buy these illiquid notes and hold tle maturity... These notes represent some value. Right now, nobody knows what they are because they have been written down so hard. Merrill sold itself for $.22 on the dollar because it couldn't see itself raising the extra capital to meet required ratios... The notes are good, but the rules say not... What would you pay for one-?
If you bought a bundle of 1,000 mortgages for $.22 on the dollar and held them to maturity you'd get rich. If 5% (present mortgage foreclosure rate) went bad you'd still have the underlying asset. Would that asset have dropped 78% in value-? You'd still have something worth more than you paid for it. Even at $.50 on the dollar you'd probably make some very good money on the returns...
The issue of sub-Prime notes means first that the home owner is less than good creditworthy... That means they are paying a premium interest rate plus higher fees to get the note to begin with. Many are Adjustable Rate Mortgages that adjust when interest rates go up... Many-many-many buyers thought they would 1) re-finance at higher valuation, 2) sell at higher valuation 3) re-finance to fixed note. Many-many-many home buyers in Bay Area and elsewhere saw low risk-high reward for getting into many such homes and renting them out. Their good credit and renters payments would build equity forever... However, prices quit rising. Rates went up. Re-financing was not an option... That forced many to walk away and caused many renters to get pushed out of homes they where they had never missed a payment...
Freddy and Fannie bought these sub-Prime notes, bundled them, sold em to Wall Street. Took the money and bought more mortgages. Along the way they paid $15-$16M in donations and lobbying to Congress. They also paid their head guys nearly $100M in bonuses and minor flunkies prorated amounts from the top banana... They also had sloppy accounting. If Freddy and Fannie were a truly Public company their top bananas would be in jail... but because they paid protection they got to keep their bonuses...
The problem with all this is that because the financial institutions are holding "bad" paper... They are not making any more loans. They are raising rates and fees and hoarding cash everywhere they can... The affect is all the small institutions are also bumping up their fees and interest rates... Interest rates have jumped three times over what they were a few months ago. Even Ford is forced to pay 7.5% for its prime money...
People saw the institutions seizing up and started to pull money from their Money Market accounts... There was a run on money market funds starting last week. If it had gone unchecked... we would have toppled the world. You cannot pull $1.7 trillion out and put it under the mattress without bad things happening... Money Market funds are not insured-at present- under the bailout they will be.... That should stop the run... BUT since the banks are paying so little on CDs and savings and have limit of $100,000, it won't be long before people move lots of cash from banks to Money market funds for higher rates and unlimited protection... Ultimately this will drive up mortgage rates... at same time as excess inventory drives down prices... (average home price dropped 11% in August following a 5% drop in July)....
If the financial market seizes up... The ONLY availbe funds will be what people have in their hands and bank accounts... Credit cards won't work... Lines of Credit won't work, home equity notes will be called or rates raised, lines of credit based on home equity will stop... all small business working capital will be based on cashflow... Customers will have to pay COD for all deliveries or shipments... There will be no new loans for vehicles or equipment...
The Bailout is to lubricate the economy-not take on bad loans- They are "bad" only because nobody will buy one at anywhere near their full value...once a few are bought then the mark-to-market action will raise all boats... Balance Sheets will have lots of higher valued assets plus cash and equity... Loans will flow... and credit standards will be raised but loans will be made-homes will start to be bought which will stabilize their values and stop the decline...
Doing nothing is to jump off a cliff...larding up the bill with crap will do nothing to solve the problem short term and will screw things up long term...
AIG insured the loans. They had insurance policy that said the bundled notes would be good... all the claims forced because the mark-to-market criteria was forcing AIG to pay out... Again a run on the insurance company... The Bailout would raise the value of the bundles and reduce the AIG exposure... The present "bailout" is merely a standby loan with warrants that convert to 80% of the stock...diluting the present Shareholders and making the Feds VERY RICH...
Cash is King... "He who got gold make rule"... Congress has the gold...their rules will decide if we go forward or backward... This is a financial problem that needs a financial solution. Unfortunately, I fear we may get a political solution along with a financial one.
This is serious... it can be worse.... It should get better if we can get some adults in the room to speak up... Not Barney Frank and Chris Dodd... They are clowns who have no clue and care less...
So... Tell me if I'm reading this wrong-? Tell me where/what I need to understand better...
Patriotic Taxation
Been muddling over Biden's "Paying Taxes is Patriotic" theme... He says the rich should pay more...
But his logic would have the top 1% of tax payers THIRTY-FIVE TIMES more patriotic than the lower 40% of taxpayers... I don't think that's necessarily so...
I was also thinking about the affects on our society when 40% of all the people who are of working age pay NOTHING and in some cases get paid by the govt for making so little...
Surely that breeds a dependency on the politicians who promise more-more-more... It also breeds a complacency about the country, about elections, about the way got is run and about how the nation is working... after all... it costs nothing and occasionally is profitable to be poor.
Under Obama and Pelosi the number of people NOT paying taxes will rise to almost 50%... The top 5% will pay more-more-more and not change any habits or behavior... But if the top 5% is so smart, won't they opt out-? Start their own companies, pay themselves whatever is left over and build equity-? Won't they buy ever bigger houses to get the homeowner decduction... won't lots and lots of tax games get played that are tax avoidance driven vs profit driven-?
When 5% goes from paying 70% of all bills to paying 100%...won't those numbers shrink-? Even taxing the dead won't raise enough to pay even greater freebies for the bottom 50%...
Didn't LBJ try something like this in the '60s...and didn't it lead to ever higher inflation-?
I see some huge rounds of inflation coming if Obama-Pelosi get their way... We'll go broke feeling rich...
I remember reading a tale of Eskimo hunters coating a double edged knife blade with seal grease and freexing the handle in the ice. The wolves would come along and lick the blade. Every lick would bring more warm blood into their belly. And they would die feeling warm, full and happy...
Is that us-?
But his logic would have the top 1% of tax payers THIRTY-FIVE TIMES more patriotic than the lower 40% of taxpayers... I don't think that's necessarily so...
I was also thinking about the affects on our society when 40% of all the people who are of working age pay NOTHING and in some cases get paid by the govt for making so little...
Surely that breeds a dependency on the politicians who promise more-more-more... It also breeds a complacency about the country, about elections, about the way got is run and about how the nation is working... after all... it costs nothing and occasionally is profitable to be poor.
Under Obama and Pelosi the number of people NOT paying taxes will rise to almost 50%... The top 5% will pay more-more-more and not change any habits or behavior... But if the top 5% is so smart, won't they opt out-? Start their own companies, pay themselves whatever is left over and build equity-? Won't they buy ever bigger houses to get the homeowner decduction... won't lots and lots of tax games get played that are tax avoidance driven vs profit driven-?
When 5% goes from paying 70% of all bills to paying 100%...won't those numbers shrink-? Even taxing the dead won't raise enough to pay even greater freebies for the bottom 50%...
Didn't LBJ try something like this in the '60s...and didn't it lead to ever higher inflation-?
I see some huge rounds of inflation coming if Obama-Pelosi get their way... We'll go broke feeling rich...
I remember reading a tale of Eskimo hunters coating a double edged knife blade with seal grease and freexing the handle in the ice. The wolves would come along and lick the blade. Every lick would bring more warm blood into their belly. And they would die feeling warm, full and happy...
Is that us-?
Monday, April 7, 2008
Recession -NOW -Update
Are we in a Recession-?
It's been a long time since we had one. The one in 1992 was a "hair-shirt" recession. We talked ourselves into it and we popped out again without the majority of the country feeling anything except worry. We haven't had one in a long time. We're losing the population that lived through the Big Depression.
The slight depression early in the Bush years scared the Republicans enough to push for tax breaks. This one is being fueled by:
1 Fears of a Democrat controlled Congress and White House. Together they have promised to not only let the Bush Tax Breaks expire (prompting a huge tax increase) but to add new taxes and regulations to businesses and The Rich. (Whoever they are-we're never told if we are one or not I don't know who to hate, feel pity or be depressed over.) The Democrat controlled govt is already talking about protectionism and abrogating the NAFTA trade agreements simply "because". They over look the historical affects of the Smoot-Hawley Act which is credited with destroying over 60% or the worlds trade and driving the worldwide Great Depression even deeper. They claim they want the US to use "soft force" to deal with drugs, narco-terrorism and terrorism. Yet they refuse to approve the Columbia Free Trade Agreement. This agreement will improve exports from the US. It will allow Columbian farmers to have a viable economic alternative to the cocaine and marijuana crops. What do the Democrats REALLY want-? The world and America waits for some clarity.
2) the Credit Freeze. Nobody knows what their collateralized securities are worth. They're forced to mark them to market, but the market keeps moving and when it drops the asset value drops. Which spins the cycle yet again. There was some fraud and some theft but not to the degree that companies are writing off their holdings. The knock-on effect is that all funding institutions are looking for belt-and-suspender guarantee on any loans. If the Freeze continues then only the credit card companies with usurous rates will be providing liquidity to the economy.
3) Sinking Dollar is harming our exports. We need an active Fed to start pulling dollars off the market. They can do this by buying in dollars with either foreign currency or swapping some of the gold we hold. At around $1,000/per ounce the US needs to sell some gold, platinum and palladium. (no wonder the meth addicts are stealing catalytic converters from the driveways at night). Gold, Silver,oil are commodity prices all reflect the surplus of US Dollars floating about the world. We cannot raise interest rates in the middle of this credit freeze. Too many contracts are tied to the Fed Rate.
Here are a couple of tidbits from the daily news feed that you may have missed;
The leader of the NBER personally thinks we are sliding into a recession. The NBER, (National Bureau of Economic Research,) a non-profit research organization, typically declares start and end dates for U.S. recessions. The group has not officially declared the U.S. is in a recession.
Transportation is a leading indicator of the economy.
BNSF Idles Freight Cars Due to Downturn
Freight railroad BNSF Railway Co. is parking miles of rail cars in some parts of the country because there is not enough freight to keep them moving, the Associated Press reported Monday.
ISM Contraction May Indicate Trucking Upturn, Analyst Says
Last week’s Institute of Supply Management report that showed continued contraction may actually be good for the trucking industry’s outlook, according to an industry analyst, the Associated Press reported.
I read the two as saying long term freight is gonna slow down. Short and intermediate freight demands will draw down inventories until demand returns. Manufacturing will slow and if demand does not rise, stop. Then we are in deep trouble. Loans must be paid, insurance must be paid, rents, leases and mortgages must be paid, even if there is no manufacturing or sales of goods and services.
Things are not that bad. They probably will never get that bad. Our fears will make them worse. Our politicians may create a problem where one could have been avoided. we don't have to have a recession or depression. The market is correcting itself. The fire will be over before the fire brigades can react-but they may pass laws that make it harder to avoid or correct in the future.
In seven months we will know much more than we do today. Unfortunately, the country cannot hold its reath for that long. Plans will be made, approvals granted or denied, commitments made based upon the best estimates of what the economy will be doing in 2009 and 2010.
What does it all mean-?
How do you read the headlines-?
It's been a long time since we had one. The one in 1992 was a "hair-shirt" recession. We talked ourselves into it and we popped out again without the majority of the country feeling anything except worry. We haven't had one in a long time. We're losing the population that lived through the Big Depression.
The slight depression early in the Bush years scared the Republicans enough to push for tax breaks. This one is being fueled by:
1 Fears of a Democrat controlled Congress and White House. Together they have promised to not only let the Bush Tax Breaks expire (prompting a huge tax increase) but to add new taxes and regulations to businesses and The Rich. (Whoever they are-we're never told if we are one or not I don't know who to hate, feel pity or be depressed over.) The Democrat controlled govt is already talking about protectionism and abrogating the NAFTA trade agreements simply "because". They over look the historical affects of the Smoot-Hawley Act which is credited with destroying over 60% or the worlds trade and driving the worldwide Great Depression even deeper. They claim they want the US to use "soft force" to deal with drugs, narco-terrorism and terrorism. Yet they refuse to approve the Columbia Free Trade Agreement. This agreement will improve exports from the US. It will allow Columbian farmers to have a viable economic alternative to the cocaine and marijuana crops. What do the Democrats REALLY want-? The world and America waits for some clarity.
2) the Credit Freeze. Nobody knows what their collateralized securities are worth. They're forced to mark them to market, but the market keeps moving and when it drops the asset value drops. Which spins the cycle yet again. There was some fraud and some theft but not to the degree that companies are writing off their holdings. The knock-on effect is that all funding institutions are looking for belt-and-suspender guarantee on any loans. If the Freeze continues then only the credit card companies with usurous rates will be providing liquidity to the economy.
3) Sinking Dollar is harming our exports. We need an active Fed to start pulling dollars off the market. They can do this by buying in dollars with either foreign currency or swapping some of the gold we hold. At around $1,000/per ounce the US needs to sell some gold, platinum and palladium. (no wonder the meth addicts are stealing catalytic converters from the driveways at night). Gold, Silver,oil are commodity prices all reflect the surplus of US Dollars floating about the world. We cannot raise interest rates in the middle of this credit freeze. Too many contracts are tied to the Fed Rate.
Here are a couple of tidbits from the daily news feed that you may have missed;
The leader of the NBER personally thinks we are sliding into a recession. The NBER, (National Bureau of Economic Research,) a non-profit research organization, typically declares start and end dates for U.S. recessions. The group has not officially declared the U.S. is in a recession.
Transportation is a leading indicator of the economy.
BNSF Idles Freight Cars Due to Downturn
Freight railroad BNSF Railway Co. is parking miles of rail cars in some parts of the country because there is not enough freight to keep them moving, the Associated Press reported Monday.
ISM Contraction May Indicate Trucking Upturn, Analyst Says
Last week’s Institute of Supply Management report that showed continued contraction may actually be good for the trucking industry’s outlook, according to an industry analyst, the Associated Press reported.
I read the two as saying long term freight is gonna slow down. Short and intermediate freight demands will draw down inventories until demand returns. Manufacturing will slow and if demand does not rise, stop. Then we are in deep trouble. Loans must be paid, insurance must be paid, rents, leases and mortgages must be paid, even if there is no manufacturing or sales of goods and services.
Things are not that bad. They probably will never get that bad. Our fears will make them worse. Our politicians may create a problem where one could have been avoided. we don't have to have a recession or depression. The market is correcting itself. The fire will be over before the fire brigades can react-but they may pass laws that make it harder to avoid or correct in the future.
In seven months we will know much more than we do today. Unfortunately, the country cannot hold its reath for that long. Plans will be made, approvals granted or denied, commitments made based upon the best estimates of what the economy will be doing in 2009 and 2010.
What does it all mean-?
How do you read the headlines-?
Friday, March 7, 2008
Economics, Politics, Anticipation
WSJ email alert from the Recession-Now front lines:
NEWS ALERT
from The Wall Street Journal
March 7, 2008
U.S. recession fears mounted as employment fell in February at its fastest rate in five years, suggesting that the housing and credit crunch is gripping the broader economy. U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 63,000 in February, after declining 22,000 in January. If not for a rise in government jobs last month, payrolls would have fallen by more than 100,000. However, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.8% from 4.9%.
Ahead of the jobs report the Federal Reserve raised the amounts outstanding in its Term Auction Facility available to banks to $100 billion. The Fed's move lowered the odds of a change in the federal funds rate before the next meeting, but raised the chances of a three-quarter point reduction on March 18.
For more information,
For more analysis of the economy, see: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics
A reason to vote for McCain
Another indication of the affects of politics on business-I am seeing and hearing Investment Bankers and business owners starting to change deal structure and pricing in anticipation of a Democrat take over.
The general line is to lock in M&A terms now before Obama comes with his 28% Capital Gains rate, before the Bush tax cuts expire, before the death tax goes back to 55% over $1M valuation, etc. Lots of talk about shifting assets to trusts and getting creative in ways to avoid the hits.
Business owners are starting to look at ways to deal with increased regulation. Nobody has anything specific yet, but the general tone is that the increased regulation will be more in line with union rules and union organizing attempts. Things that stress business and create a favorful union organizing environment are expected.
Estimates that a full-tilt union America will drive up the cost of everything by 20%... That seems scary, but it was what I heard yesterday... Add to that the tax increases and credit crunch, plus whatever mischief Congress creates to replace the Alternative Minimum Tax... There are gonna be a lot of folks with six figure household income scrambling for tax shelters and new income opportunities...
The markets run ahead of events. Right now there is a bit of panic and a lot of fear. But the tide was already shifting in consideration of higher gasoline prices ($5-$6/gal-?), tighter credit, fewer home starts and less consumer spending...
The Democratic Congress and the Democratic Candidates have succeeded in scaring the marketplace-and the world... It's gonna take some strong medicine to prove them wrong... Cassandra is respected a lot longer than Pollyanna ever was...
Are we talking ourselves into a recession-?
George Anders column in Wednesday's WSJ reflects a lot of the thinking I am hearing and seeing...
NEWS ALERT
from The Wall Street Journal
March 7, 2008
U.S. recession fears mounted as employment fell in February at its fastest rate in five years, suggesting that the housing and credit crunch is gripping the broader economy. U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 63,000 in February, after declining 22,000 in January. If not for a rise in government jobs last month, payrolls would have fallen by more than 100,000. However, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.8% from 4.9%.
Ahead of the jobs report the Federal Reserve raised the amounts outstanding in its Term Auction Facility available to banks to $100 billion. The Fed's move lowered the odds of a change in the federal funds rate before the next meeting, but raised the chances of a three-quarter point reduction on March 18.
For more information,
For more analysis of the economy, see: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics
A reason to vote for McCain
Another indication of the affects of politics on business-I am seeing and hearing Investment Bankers and business owners starting to change deal structure and pricing in anticipation of a Democrat take over.
The general line is to lock in M&A terms now before Obama comes with his 28% Capital Gains rate, before the Bush tax cuts expire, before the death tax goes back to 55% over $1M valuation, etc. Lots of talk about shifting assets to trusts and getting creative in ways to avoid the hits.
Business owners are starting to look at ways to deal with increased regulation. Nobody has anything specific yet, but the general tone is that the increased regulation will be more in line with union rules and union organizing attempts. Things that stress business and create a favorful union organizing environment are expected.
Estimates that a full-tilt union America will drive up the cost of everything by 20%... That seems scary, but it was what I heard yesterday... Add to that the tax increases and credit crunch, plus whatever mischief Congress creates to replace the Alternative Minimum Tax... There are gonna be a lot of folks with six figure household income scrambling for tax shelters and new income opportunities...
The markets run ahead of events. Right now there is a bit of panic and a lot of fear. But the tide was already shifting in consideration of higher gasoline prices ($5-$6/gal-?), tighter credit, fewer home starts and less consumer spending...
The Democratic Congress and the Democratic Candidates have succeeded in scaring the marketplace-and the world... It's gonna take some strong medicine to prove them wrong... Cassandra is respected a lot longer than Pollyanna ever was...
Are we talking ourselves into a recession-?
George Anders column in Wednesday's WSJ reflects a lot of the thinking I am hearing and seeing...
Hurry, hurry, hurry to carry out corporate acquisitions before the November elections, some attorneys and investment bankers are telling their clients. That is because they think a Democratic presidential victory could create more roadblocks for takeovers.
Guessing what political-office seekers might do if elected is never a sure thing. Some stances taken on the campaign trail have a way of fading from sight once the election is over. Other positions prove impossible to implement.
Higher capital-gains taxes could also jolt the takeover market, though getting congressional approval for such changes won't be easy. In Senate votes in the past few years, both Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton have voted for ending the current 15% capital-gains rate and returning to higher levels.
Mr. Obama told the TechCrunch Web site in November that he favored capital-gains tax rates close to 28%, where they were under the Reagan administration, though not quite that high. Mrs. Clinton hasn't been as specific.
For individual shareholders, a higher capital-gains rate would mean keeping less of the proceeds from selling a company. That could be a particular sore point for owners of closely held companies, who may have personally built up the value of such companies over decades. As a result, some private-equity firms are urging potential sellers of companies to act fast, while the 15% capital-gains rate still applies.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
New Year, New Outlook
Happy New Year.
Yes, I know it's March. March and April have long been associated with New Year- new beginnings, new flowers and new life after a long grey/gray winter (grey with an "e" seems more dreary than with an "a"). Spring seems a more appropriate place for a new year than the Gregorian Calendar that places January 1 as the start of all new things...
I have always had more luck when the business of the new year began along with the rise of grass and green. Warm winds blow more favorably than the cold cutting damp knives of January.
As you noticed from my last post. I became disenchanted and frustrated with the NFL, the New England Patriots, our political tussling, the impending holidays and arrival of family from far and near. I was becoming a grouchy curmudgeon. Who would want to read that drivel.- even if I was right... I have tried hold to the advice that Thumper's Father gave him in the movie "Bambi"; "If you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all."... We can all grinch, complain and gripe... My Grandfather used to say "A kicking mule can't pull"... I have decided to stop kicking... well at least as much events allow.
My Grandfather followed a mule plowing for most of his life. My Father graduated from high school during WWII. He could have had a farming deferment. Being young, energetic and having a hangover he spent one morning walking behind the mule watching it's rear end and decided he would rather go fight Germans... He was 20 years old at the Battle of the Bulge... As he aged he remembered the funny times during the war and tried to forget the horrors. He was among a group that liberated a concentration camp. "It was just a little one " my Aunt said... (Her husband spend the war at Fort Dix wrestling paperwork. We didn't spend much time around her. Stupidity might be contagious. We took no chances.)
It affected my Father when he would remember the horrors of what supposedly civilized people had done to others. He had a hard time sleeping for many years. He went from a small town in a corner of Georgia where most farming was still done the way it had been done for 100 years to the world of mechanized genocide. There was one Jewish family in the country. There were no Catholics. Nobody in his world had ever expressed that kind of hatred and evil... There was some bigotry towards blacks, but the depression had hammered the whole countryside. Everybody was broke. It's hard to hate when you're all in the same boat.
My father died in 1959 in a car wreck. That was long ago, far away and ancient history.
Except it's not. George Santayana is attributed to the misquote "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it". History does seem to run in cycles. It does not run in ruts. Things are never exactly the same as they were before. We can learn something of the future by studying the past and looking for the reasons that people made decisions which led to known results. We do that by studying history. It seems we concentrate too much on battles, elections and personal lives of dictators, kings and royalty. We don't spend enough time looking at the common people. We look at the weapons and great buildings and not at the homes and daily lives of those who make the machinery of civilization work. Yet, when the great leaders need a war, they turn to these people for justification, fodder, support, sacrifice, and sacrifice. When we study businesses we do the same things. We look at the large enterprises, the leaders of these monster corporations... We don't study either the people who make the wheels turn, the paperwork move and the details attended. We don't study successful individuals and look for clues to what habits and traits made them so.
We like to think that we are wise. We are the "thinking ape ". But we are often blind to the people and changes around us. We make plans. We present them for approval, revision, alteration, amendment and finally funding. We give credit to ourselves for our success. When it fails we blame "bad luck " . I have yet to see a successful person attribute their position to "luck " Yet, we study their failures to avoid "bad luck " corrupting our plans... This all seems a bit arrogant to me.
We won WWII. We have no real idea what we did right. We did not have the best trained army. We didn't have the most modern and effective weapons. We were able to build and supply ourselves and our allies. We didn't get into a war of attrition in the traditional sense. We did not repeat the meat-grinders of WWI. The more books are written and the more detailed history is revealed, the more I read it as a very close run. We could have lost.
I think the defining difference between WWI and WWI was American leadership and the spirit of the American people. We were at war. We had been attacked. We struck back and then began the the search for allies, understanding the enemy and preparation to win. We faced an enemy that had attacked its neighbors, had enslaved its citizens and slaughtered thousands because they didn't fit some grand design. We faced an enemy that had wealth, intelligence, cunning, a ruthless disregard for human life be it their own forces or their enemies or the innocents. They were killers willing to use the most modern weapons and means to make the world into a better place for their kind. We had no illusions about their barbarism. We were clear in our commitment that their kind could not prevail or only be knocked down to return again stronger and more deadly.
We were attacked again in 1993 and 2001. In 1993, we treated the attack as a police action. We investigated and found the bad guys. We arrested them and gave them civil rights of a citizen and protections that they would never have given us. Throughout the 1990's we were repeatedly attacked. We continued to treat it as a police issue. We'd fire off a few cruise missiles to blow up some tents, an aspirin factory and bluster about.... We weren't serious about responding militarily. We were afraid of actually facing a serious enemy. We long lived in a delusional world of peace-harmony and political answers to all questions. Our thought leaders were convinced that all evil of the world originated somewhere in America and we should be ashamed of our success. On September 11, 2001 we were attacked by an enemy using airplanes as missiles. Suddenly, we were at war. Our Thought Leaders could not wish away 3,000 dead and replace the vanished buildings.
We faced an enemy that possessed no national homeland, no national boundaries, no national infrastructure, no factories, no government agencies, no way that we could strike back by sending in bombers and cruise missiles. The nation state had dissolved. However, like our enemies from the past these monsters had attacked in many countries , had enslaved its citizens and slaughtered thousands because they didn't fit some grand design. We faced an enemy that had wealth, intelligence, cunning, a ruthless disregard for human life be it their own forces or their enemies or the innocents. They were killers willing to use the most modern weapons and means to make the world into a better place for their kind. They didn't covet our land, our wealth, or citizens, our peace or our prosperity. They hated us because we would be most likely to oppose their planes for world domination. Of all the nations in the world they chose America aas the toughest one to cow with threats and intimidation. They tested us with their 9/11 attack. They tested our newly elected President. Unfortunately, for them, this time they had a President who was willing to fight.
We went after their asylums in Afghanistan, the Philippines and South East Asia. We have had some successes. We have had a hard time convincing many nations and people that we face a united and organized enemy. Our intelligence and forecasts showed that Iraq, which had killed thousands of Iranians and Iraqi Kurds with poison gas, posed athreat. We went to the UN for sanctions and the authorization to use force to enforce the sanctions. WE asked and waited long months for answers to the future of those weapons of mass destruction. When we had no further choice we invaded and removed Saddam Hussein from power. We then engaged in helping the Iraqi people recover from 35 years of totalitarian dictatorship and subjection. It has been a rough process. We have adjusted and things are improving. The terrorists and criminal sectors of Iraqi society saw an opportunity to seize power. New generals, new tactics and the willingness of the Iraqi people to fight for their new lives have dramatically changed things over the past year. Our newspapers and TV media have chosen to ignore our victories. Our Thought Leaders still see America as the font of all evil in the world...
. Our own military has dubbed this "the long war". Like previous "long wars" this may take a long time. We Americans have become accustomed to wars of short duration. We have not fought a long war since our struggle fro independence. We had to convince many that our cause was just and our course correct then as well.
Our enemy hides among the citizens of the world. They are as much at home in the highrise towers and hallways of power and wealth of modern cities as they are in villages and mountain caves. They go by many names. They hide behind the words of religion. They find a cover in religious fervor but when they are at full rampage, they take drugs, rape, steal, murder and desecrate without any consideration of any religion or the laws of any god or nation. They are killers. We refer to them Islamofascists or terrorists . We really don't know what to call them because they are very clever at turning our own civil libertarian concerns against us.
We know that they wish to kill us. They wish to attack and slaughter as many of us as possible. This will weaken our resolve and frighten their enemies. They will be able to convert the weak and assume world supremacy and the fulfillment of some nebulous grand design. They seek and will use any weapon that can kill tens of thousands of us in multiple attacks.
We have grown weary of the war. Our citizens have grown tired of the struggle. Our news media wants a different story. (They bore easily). Democracies have never had the long term will to face a tyrant. The longer we go without another attack, the easier it is to want to withdraw. have we not been attacked because of some plan or simply because we have been lucky, thus far.
Our new President will be tested. The Democrats have chosen to hold a race to withdraw from the major battlefield of this war. Altho, most recently they have decided that rather than remove the troops several hundred miles away they want garrison them inside large fortifications. They propose to fight a counterinsurgency war using the trench warfare tactics that created a meat grinder in "the war to end all wars" 90 years ago.
We are at war. Yet, our economy continues to grow and blossom. 95% of all workers are working. 96% of all mortgages are being paid on time. the revenues collected by the US govt are at all time highs. We do not have a draft to call up more military. Oil is expensive, but it is because the markets are uncertain about its availability 90 days from now. The oil speculators are chary of events in the oil producing regions of the world. There is no shortage of oil.
What the high oil prices have done is make alternatives economically viable. In 1977, I heard Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani speak. The first OPEC cartel price increases had shaken the world. Yamani had gone to school in America and knew us well. Like Admiral Yamamoto before him he knew that when they provoked America they "awoke a sleeping tiger". He feared that raising the prices too high or too quickly would prompt American ingenuity to find alternatives to their oil.
We are close to that point now. The high prices at the gas pump are prompting the govt., investors, inventors and entrepreneurs to seek alternatives. Ethanol and soy deisel now provide great farm subsidies but they pose long term problems. Wind and solar power are dependent upon the wind blowing and the sun shining. Improvements in solar power generation chips make it seem that we face another "Moore's Law" style revolution. If all these measures prove as promised what does that mean for the Middle East-?
Without oil wealth at the present level, will the world still scramble for access, control, possession-? If we only need oil as a lubricant, will the terrorists still get their funding-? Will terrorist states still fund their proxy wars-? What will the Islamofascists do when there is no more oil wealth-?
We must remain true to our American principles. We face many problems in the future. However the future is not carved in stone. We can still change the fates that our politicians say are aligned against us.
We cannot surrender to the fear mongers who would make us hide from the future. We cannot solve the problems of the future by retreating into the failed answers of the past. We cannot withdraw from the world. We cannot build walls and barriers to protect ourselves from everything. We are Americans. We are optimistic. We are inventive. We are creative. We are imaginative. We do not "muddle through", except when we are preparing to change the game...
We are the lucky beneficiaries of a grand experiment in participatory democracy. We are the first nation founded not by a tribe, a geographic boundary, race, religion or act of some government. We are founded on the philosophy that "all men are created equal and are endowed by their Creator of certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness"
From that premise, we hold that all humans have a right to life, liberty and the freedom to pursue happiness... This makes us very much at odds with any nation or person that would deny or restrict life, liberty or freedom to anyone else. We have struggled with this history within our own boundaries. We have not won all the battles. We have too many who would take and even more who would surrender their freedoms for the politicians promise of the better life as a slave. Too many who would exchange the freedom to pursue happiness as we each define it for the promise of safety, security, jobs, health, housing, education and old age assistance... That way lies the trap of slave master, the tyrant, the return to serfdom
Thanks to Wikipedia for the history links...
Yes, I know it's March. March and April have long been associated with New Year- new beginnings, new flowers and new life after a long grey/gray winter (grey with an "e" seems more dreary than with an "a"). Spring seems a more appropriate place for a new year than the Gregorian Calendar that places January 1 as the start of all new things...
I have always had more luck when the business of the new year began along with the rise of grass and green. Warm winds blow more favorably than the cold cutting damp knives of January.
As you noticed from my last post. I became disenchanted and frustrated with the NFL, the New England Patriots, our political tussling, the impending holidays and arrival of family from far and near. I was becoming a grouchy curmudgeon. Who would want to read that drivel.- even if I was right... I have tried hold to the advice that Thumper's Father gave him in the movie "Bambi"; "If you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all."... We can all grinch, complain and gripe... My Grandfather used to say "A kicking mule can't pull"... I have decided to stop kicking... well at least as much events allow.
My Grandfather followed a mule plowing for most of his life. My Father graduated from high school during WWII. He could have had a farming deferment. Being young, energetic and having a hangover he spent one morning walking behind the mule watching it's rear end and decided he would rather go fight Germans... He was 20 years old at the Battle of the Bulge... As he aged he remembered the funny times during the war and tried to forget the horrors. He was among a group that liberated a concentration camp. "It was just a little one " my Aunt said... (Her husband spend the war at Fort Dix wrestling paperwork. We didn't spend much time around her. Stupidity might be contagious. We took no chances.)
It affected my Father when he would remember the horrors of what supposedly civilized people had done to others. He had a hard time sleeping for many years. He went from a small town in a corner of Georgia where most farming was still done the way it had been done for 100 years to the world of mechanized genocide. There was one Jewish family in the country. There were no Catholics. Nobody in his world had ever expressed that kind of hatred and evil... There was some bigotry towards blacks, but the depression had hammered the whole countryside. Everybody was broke. It's hard to hate when you're all in the same boat.
My father died in 1959 in a car wreck. That was long ago, far away and ancient history.
Except it's not. George Santayana is attributed to the misquote "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it". History does seem to run in cycles. It does not run in ruts. Things are never exactly the same as they were before. We can learn something of the future by studying the past and looking for the reasons that people made decisions which led to known results. We do that by studying history. It seems we concentrate too much on battles, elections and personal lives of dictators, kings and royalty. We don't spend enough time looking at the common people. We look at the weapons and great buildings and not at the homes and daily lives of those who make the machinery of civilization work. Yet, when the great leaders need a war, they turn to these people for justification, fodder, support, sacrifice, and sacrifice. When we study businesses we do the same things. We look at the large enterprises, the leaders of these monster corporations... We don't study either the people who make the wheels turn, the paperwork move and the details attended. We don't study successful individuals and look for clues to what habits and traits made them so.
We like to think that we are wise. We are the "thinking ape ". But we are often blind to the people and changes around us. We make plans. We present them for approval, revision, alteration, amendment and finally funding. We give credit to ourselves for our success. When it fails we blame "bad luck " . I have yet to see a successful person attribute their position to "luck " Yet, we study their failures to avoid "bad luck " corrupting our plans... This all seems a bit arrogant to me.
We won WWII. We have no real idea what we did right. We did not have the best trained army. We didn't have the most modern and effective weapons. We were able to build and supply ourselves and our allies. We didn't get into a war of attrition in the traditional sense. We did not repeat the meat-grinders of WWI. The more books are written and the more detailed history is revealed, the more I read it as a very close run. We could have lost.
I think the defining difference between WWI and WWI was American leadership and the spirit of the American people. We were at war. We had been attacked. We struck back and then began the the search for allies, understanding the enemy and preparation to win. We faced an enemy that had attacked its neighbors, had enslaved its citizens and slaughtered thousands because they didn't fit some grand design. We faced an enemy that had wealth, intelligence, cunning, a ruthless disregard for human life be it their own forces or their enemies or the innocents. They were killers willing to use the most modern weapons and means to make the world into a better place for their kind. We had no illusions about their barbarism. We were clear in our commitment that their kind could not prevail or only be knocked down to return again stronger and more deadly.
We were attacked again in 1993 and 2001. In 1993, we treated the attack as a police action. We investigated and found the bad guys. We arrested them and gave them civil rights of a citizen and protections that they would never have given us. Throughout the 1990's we were repeatedly attacked. We continued to treat it as a police issue. We'd fire off a few cruise missiles to blow up some tents, an aspirin factory and bluster about.... We weren't serious about responding militarily. We were afraid of actually facing a serious enemy. We long lived in a delusional world of peace-harmony and political answers to all questions. Our thought leaders were convinced that all evil of the world originated somewhere in America and we should be ashamed of our success. On September 11, 2001 we were attacked by an enemy using airplanes as missiles. Suddenly, we were at war. Our Thought Leaders could not wish away 3,000 dead and replace the vanished buildings.
We faced an enemy that possessed no national homeland, no national boundaries, no national infrastructure, no factories, no government agencies, no way that we could strike back by sending in bombers and cruise missiles. The nation state had dissolved. However, like our enemies from the past these monsters had attacked in many countries , had enslaved its citizens and slaughtered thousands because they didn't fit some grand design. We faced an enemy that had wealth, intelligence, cunning, a ruthless disregard for human life be it their own forces or their enemies or the innocents. They were killers willing to use the most modern weapons and means to make the world into a better place for their kind. They didn't covet our land, our wealth, or citizens, our peace or our prosperity. They hated us because we would be most likely to oppose their planes for world domination. Of all the nations in the world they chose America aas the toughest one to cow with threats and intimidation. They tested us with their 9/11 attack. They tested our newly elected President. Unfortunately, for them, this time they had a President who was willing to fight.
We went after their asylums in Afghanistan, the Philippines and South East Asia. We have had some successes. We have had a hard time convincing many nations and people that we face a united and organized enemy. Our intelligence and forecasts showed that Iraq, which had killed thousands of Iranians and Iraqi Kurds with poison gas, posed athreat. We went to the UN for sanctions and the authorization to use force to enforce the sanctions. WE asked and waited long months for answers to the future of those weapons of mass destruction. When we had no further choice we invaded and removed Saddam Hussein from power. We then engaged in helping the Iraqi people recover from 35 years of totalitarian dictatorship and subjection. It has been a rough process. We have adjusted and things are improving. The terrorists and criminal sectors of Iraqi society saw an opportunity to seize power. New generals, new tactics and the willingness of the Iraqi people to fight for their new lives have dramatically changed things over the past year. Our newspapers and TV media have chosen to ignore our victories. Our Thought Leaders still see America as the font of all evil in the world...
. Our own military has dubbed this "the long war". Like previous "long wars" this may take a long time. We Americans have become accustomed to wars of short duration. We have not fought a long war since our struggle fro independence. We had to convince many that our cause was just and our course correct then as well.
Our enemy hides among the citizens of the world. They are as much at home in the highrise towers and hallways of power and wealth of modern cities as they are in villages and mountain caves. They go by many names. They hide behind the words of religion. They find a cover in religious fervor but when they are at full rampage, they take drugs, rape, steal, murder and desecrate without any consideration of any religion or the laws of any god or nation. They are killers. We refer to them Islamofascists or terrorists . We really don't know what to call them because they are very clever at turning our own civil libertarian concerns against us.
We know that they wish to kill us. They wish to attack and slaughter as many of us as possible. This will weaken our resolve and frighten their enemies. They will be able to convert the weak and assume world supremacy and the fulfillment of some nebulous grand design. They seek and will use any weapon that can kill tens of thousands of us in multiple attacks.
We have grown weary of the war. Our citizens have grown tired of the struggle. Our news media wants a different story. (They bore easily). Democracies have never had the long term will to face a tyrant. The longer we go without another attack, the easier it is to want to withdraw. have we not been attacked because of some plan or simply because we have been lucky, thus far.
Our new President will be tested. The Democrats have chosen to hold a race to withdraw from the major battlefield of this war. Altho, most recently they have decided that rather than remove the troops several hundred miles away they want garrison them inside large fortifications. They propose to fight a counterinsurgency war using the trench warfare tactics that created a meat grinder in "the war to end all wars" 90 years ago.
We are at war. Yet, our economy continues to grow and blossom. 95% of all workers are working. 96% of all mortgages are being paid on time. the revenues collected by the US govt are at all time highs. We do not have a draft to call up more military. Oil is expensive, but it is because the markets are uncertain about its availability 90 days from now. The oil speculators are chary of events in the oil producing regions of the world. There is no shortage of oil.
What the high oil prices have done is make alternatives economically viable. In 1977, I heard Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani speak. The first OPEC cartel price increases had shaken the world. Yamani had gone to school in America and knew us well. Like Admiral Yamamoto before him he knew that when they provoked America they "awoke a sleeping tiger". He feared that raising the prices too high or too quickly would prompt American ingenuity to find alternatives to their oil.
We are close to that point now. The high prices at the gas pump are prompting the govt., investors, inventors and entrepreneurs to seek alternatives. Ethanol and soy deisel now provide great farm subsidies but they pose long term problems. Wind and solar power are dependent upon the wind blowing and the sun shining. Improvements in solar power generation chips make it seem that we face another "Moore's Law" style revolution. If all these measures prove as promised what does that mean for the Middle East-?
Without oil wealth at the present level, will the world still scramble for access, control, possession-? If we only need oil as a lubricant, will the terrorists still get their funding-? Will terrorist states still fund their proxy wars-? What will the Islamofascists do when there is no more oil wealth-?
We must remain true to our American principles. We face many problems in the future. However the future is not carved in stone. We can still change the fates that our politicians say are aligned against us.
We cannot surrender to the fear mongers who would make us hide from the future. We cannot solve the problems of the future by retreating into the failed answers of the past. We cannot withdraw from the world. We cannot build walls and barriers to protect ourselves from everything. We are Americans. We are optimistic. We are inventive. We are creative. We are imaginative. We do not "muddle through", except when we are preparing to change the game...
We are the lucky beneficiaries of a grand experiment in participatory democracy. We are the first nation founded not by a tribe, a geographic boundary, race, religion or act of some government. We are founded on the philosophy that "all men are created equal and are endowed by their Creator of certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness"
From that premise, we hold that all humans have a right to life, liberty and the freedom to pursue happiness... This makes us very much at odds with any nation or person that would deny or restrict life, liberty or freedom to anyone else. We have struggled with this history within our own boundaries. We have not won all the battles. We have too many who would take and even more who would surrender their freedoms for the politicians promise of the better life as a slave. Too many who would exchange the freedom to pursue happiness as we each define it for the promise of safety, security, jobs, health, housing, education and old age assistance... That way lies the trap of slave master, the tyrant, the return to serfdom
Thanks to Wikipedia for the history links...
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