2012 Predictions

Kurzwell Accelerating Intelligence website has a round up of predictions for someone who is either in need of or has received accelerated intelligence...

Predictions... Like poetry-?

More people write them than read them.

New Year, New Wisdom-?

It's not often that my morning reading throws up some good tidbits that combine to make things seem clearer, more optimistic, and generally uplifting.

The World Economic Forum has a list of 50 Risks for the coming year. As Inspector Renault said in Casablanca; "Round Up The Usual Suspects" They have and in keeping with anything titled "World" they have done so in 151 pages (64 in .pdf)... Scan when you can or use your imagination. A good counselor and wise person always starts with the obvious and proceeds to the Arcana. That makes the reader feel wisehttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif because; They knew it also. Still take a look.

Then contrast that with this article from Forbes; "Seven habits of Spectacularly Unsuccessful Executives" It's succinct and we all know these characters in our lives...and maybe we can identify a trait and stop ourselves from wading too far in that direction.

What do the two reports have in common... They highlight that most failures come from human frailty and success. Success stops hunting, stops running in fear of the chasing hordes who will come and take away market, talent, and provide something better, cheaper, easier, and cooler.

Albert Edwards of SocGen has some 11 forecasts... Again, most of which we knew, but it's nice to see the smart and rich people see much the same. This also comes with links and references to other. Have fun.

Watching the Know-Nothings dance around the pyre of Bain Capital is sad and interesting. All the Republicans who deplore growth of government, crony-capitalism and bail-outs of the Too-Large-To-Fail will have a hard time expressing those charges against President Obama when they have taken his side of the argument and savaged Romney... There are many stories in all the media... It's sad. We should be having a different discussion. This is a golden opportunity to educate and embolden American Entrepreneurs and business.

BUT it's also a reflection on our economic education level in America. TV and the schools have spent the last 50 years trashing business and denying that economic rules have consequences. The politicians have convinced many that only -THEY- can save them from the evil rich... Free Enterprise means "FREEDOM to risk your own money. Freedom to lose every penny. Freedom to provide a value for which consumers will pay a premium over your costs. Freedom to get rich." Free Enterprise does not mean a guaranteed anything... No jobs are guaranteed. No company is guaranteed that it will exist forever. No one is guaranteed that they will get rich. No one will have any assurance that they will not waste their money and time in pursuit of the dream. Seemingly, those who would be our Political Masters want to guarantee the success of every American... They cannot do that. They can only diminish the ability to risk much or be rewarded much...

Most people cannot tell you the difference between an "Operating Statement" or a "Balance Sheet". Yet, they all want to be paid more next year. They all want to have a safe and comfortable retirement. But they cannot be bothered with the math, the economics, the tools necessary to assure their participation in their own success. They simply wish to hire someone and sue when expectations fail to arrive. Is it any wonder that we have cities, counties and possibly states that will be broke by this time next year-? Free Money and lots of it is the only answer...as those self-proclaimed leaders hide from the hard details and call for bailouts to make it all go away. Do we have more road to kick-the-can-down-? Some say "NO-!"

Sad... America was once the home of the free...but we have chosen to look at our shoes and accept the words of fools as wisdom. We even lack the ability and initiative to read the books, watch the business channels, look up companies on the internet, and take care of our own future. Our wise-men are flailing about...

Looks like a very interesting year ahead. I recall someone saying that's a ancient Chinese curse. "May you live in interesting times"... Blessing or curse, we seem to have one and there is no way to avoid it.

Two-Way Streets

CBC Radio (aka Canadian Govt Radio) Has a report on a http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifpodcast by Susannah Breslin on the topic "Why Do Men Go To Strip Clubs?" It's an interesting tidbit... and really the responses are predictable.

I replied simply with an observation that each report and each question asked reveals something by -both- parties. The interlocutor and the respondent. Usually, Much-much more about the one asking the questions.

What do you think Susannah Breslin's report says about -her- ?

The reason this topic resonates with me is that I have spent a few moments listening to Those-Who-Would-Be-President during this reality TV season of debates, analysis, analysis and debates. A contest somewhere between American Idol, Survivor, and "Everybody Is Famous For Ten Minutes"... The TV people -LOVE- this as it draws eyeballs, is cheap theater, and tunes up their election coverage teams for the pig slop/bun fight that awaits us over the Summer and Fall. Nov 9, 2012 will be a day of silence...before they start telling us -WHAT- it all means... The silence will be wonderful.

Watching the most recent debate with Geo. Stephanopoulos and Diane Sawyer, she who always looks as tho she is just about to well up in tears... I could not help seeing -WHY- the mainstream TV people are losing audience viewers. They simply cannot get a conversation going and let the speaker reveal. They want -all- the talk after the event to be about -THEM-. Dick Gregory, on the earlier debate showed his ignorance and inability to be a reporter of events rather than an antagonist and party to the event.

New and unknown people would be much better at letting the candidates speak... It's a thought.

What is obvious is that attempting to be all-things-to-all-people is foolish and annoying. Be the same person you are at home-alone. We'll decide. The Media Made Cypher we have shows that The Media is not up to the job.

We Can Do Better.

MOVING...

I have been very quiet. This is because I tend to follow the instructions that Thumper's father gave him, and he related to Bambi; "If you can't say something nice, say nothing at all" ... I lack the active and endlessly childishness to be like Alice Longworth who famously said "If you have nothing nice to say, come and sit beside me."

The Blog-O-Sphere is -? Well, what is it-? Relevant any longer-? Or just a toy for old folks-? Hard to say. Tweeters and Facebookers have their own instant popularity and sharing... The aggregators still do -ok- some few better than the many others who are serving the same watered down broth. a few bloggers are doing their own reporting. Digging for facts and examining the public documents, crunching the numbers... but if cited the eyes roll and some wise person always says "Well, that's just a blog."

Given the performance of the Established, Credentialed, Mainstream, Establishment Media over these past ten years... I am given to roll my own eyes and think, if not say; "Well, you know how objective they are"... Watching the American Idol/Survivor show also-known-as Republican Debates... I can see how shallow their ability to examine and question has grown. The old axiom of "Use It or Lose it" applies to these extremely well paid and brilliantly made up-perfect-hair-people... They have lost it. They are no longer serious people for a serious time. They have surrendered their integrity for the sham of ratings and dollars... I changed the channel.

Watching their questions makes me realize that a question asked tells about -BOTH- speakers. The interrogator and the respondent. Barbara waters asking President Obama what super hero or super power he would have, or what flaws/faults does he have... No wonder they didn't cover the white House Halloween party. Full tilt Hollywood bash with Alice in wonderland theme, Johnny Depp, et al... a surprise-? Only to those who knew noting about it. Seeing the First Family in Louis XIV garb seems all too appropriate and easy...

The country is broke. People have been out of work for years. The President iis assuming royal powers, the numbers are being manipulated and nobody inquires about their veracity... and he has signed a law that allows him, and his military to sweep the streets, collecting any American they wish. They can hold them for decades without charge or notification to family or concerned associates.... Soon he will pop up and seek -YET ANOTHER- $1.2 trillion dollars in debt limit increase...

For those not paying attention; a trillion is one million individual millions. $1.2 trillion equals one million, two hundred thousand million dollars. That is a lot of money... we have already increased the limit and borrowed over $5 trillion...and that is just in his three years in office.

We are borrowing $.40 of every dollar we spend. ... The Adult Media wonders what super powers he would have or what flaws he has-? Something ain't right here. Are there any adults available who can face the reality of our impending disaster-?

See how easy it is to become a political pundit... anyone can do it. I just did...Wow-! aren't I a Pretty Bird-?

I have wondered what topics I can write about. what can I share and still remain, basically, a nice guy who values his privacy...

I'm still working on that...

But I am planning on departing California. Moving to some place more rational. California has been the cultural leader for America most of my life. despite the great people, wonderful climate and feeling of being the first to see "The Next Great Thing"... I am afraid that California will soon show America what happens when a state is financially broke. Nobody knows what happens when a state goes bankrupt. can it even file for bankruptcy-? Raising taxes and driving up costs are one factor in my decision. I am also tired of living on the bleeding edge of every social experiment that comes along... The state is broke. we owe the state employees and their pensions more money that is available. we believe in green-everything- and we refuse to develop the oil deposits that leak-naturally- from the ground and spoil the beaches.

The state wil soon lose the bothersome Pacific Cargo trade as the expanded Panama Canal allows larger ships and larger containers. The shippers, and shipping lines, will gladly by-pass these west Coast ports with their history of labor strife and political football... Hollywood remains a big deal. BUT most of the big money people and movies are owned outside of the state... You can fund 2-3-4 new movies just on the taxes you save.

In short, I see California being 6 months to 2 years ahead of the nation in our cultural rush to destruction. I'm not big enough to float thru any crisis, wise enough to time it, or energetic enough to take advantage of the fantastic opportunities that always arise in the midst of destruction...

Oregon looks interesting. California with trees, but the same social disconnect. Gown v Town played on the statewide level. democrats and unions in charge of everything... But it does hold some interest.

Virginia is nice. No, not NO-VA...that band of communities that border the capitol of the planet. I am over my temptation with the halls of power at the center of the universe. It is not my personality. I hold truth, trust and relationships too dear. I cannot deal secrets and betray trusts for the fleeting advance...The beaches are nice, but...too many people...Lots of humans make me nervous... Maybe Charlottesville or some place smaller--and in the mountains-? Shenandoah, what a lovely song and nice valley...

Florida-? Probably will win the battle. They seem to want old folks. Their tax structure is inviting. The Panhandle is nice. They have four seasons. The sand is nice, clean, soft-like powdered sugar. Not too many people-yet- that will change. Soon Knoxville, Atlanta, Birmingham and Montgomery will be an easy drive... Much like Los Angeles to Las Vegas or The Bay Area to Tahoe and Reno. Plus the air services will grow... Lots of and for homes, golf courses, etc and -ll- those small businesses that support Geezers and their related New Money

I'm up in the air-at this writing.

I am changing my life. I am readng much more than in years gone past. I have rediscovered music...lots of music...From classic symphony and opera, to big band-American Songbook Standards, rock, country, jazz.... So much new to me...and it feels like water in the desert...

Just a few of the things I have missed while I chased leprechauns and rainbows across the world...and never got a firm grasp on the famous Pot-O-Gold... I had finger tips on it a couple of times. I just "couldna make a fist of it" as a Scotsman told me once. I had a good run and some adventures...can't complain or brag, just smile in my Geezer-dom

Suggestions-? What would you do-? If you have read this far then you have some interest.

Conversation

Of all the old traditions that have slipped away due to email, text, instant message, plus the changes in society where there are no societal penalties for lying; the one thing I most miss is conversation.

I do not see people sitting and talking, with or without alcohol. Just plain conversing, sharing ideas, opinions, and perspectives on the world. The young in bars seem to NED loud music so that talk is hard and barest communications must be shouted... Houses lack front porch to sit and observe the passing parade... Living rooms are dominated by flickering bhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.giflue lights and sound systems, combined which cost more than the vehicle in the driveway... A visit to the home of a friend is often done with the TV going. I'm old. I cannot focus my complete attention on two things at a time. I give my priority to the person, live, and present.

Funny thing is, when I mute the TV or turn it off, the person stops talking. They seem to feel they are interfering somehow... yet, what they do not -get- is that I value their presence and words more than the babbling heads or silly drama/comedies that are selling me products.

I am presently reading "Robert Frost The Poet as Philosopher" by Peter Stanlis.

Robert Frost felt he could not be a true poet until he found his conversational voice. He paid attention to what people say, how they said it and what they meant. English is a growing, broad and inclusive language. We have many words. we can use them in a wide variety of ways

Prosody is a very interesting are for me. Being a Southerner, I have been aware of the way people speak my whole life. The rhythms, spacing, phrases chosen can be almost musical. Some people have a wondrous melody in their language. Others can say the same words and it sounds like metal being hit with a hammer. Words are not the sole conveyors of meaning. Prosody tells much more to the listener.

Songs are good examples of conversation in melody. Nobody would compliment Bob Dylan solely on his voice. His words, phrasing and voice complete the story and make it memorable and him entertaining. I have long loved the cello and violin for their resemblance to the human voice. They can convey such a range of warm emotions and feelings...

The songs of older generations had a phrasing that reflected rhythms of walking, rocking or movement. The newer music sounds, to me, as tho the person does not exercise. The music is short, choppy, and the voice conveys momentary passions. I do not hear the thought behind the feelings, just the emotion. Is it me- or- ?

I have had a few conversations with friends, strangers and relatives that resonate through the years. I don't remember so much what I said, but what I learned. We shared conversations that lasted an hour or two or all through the evening. I must have contributed something of value for them to stay and educate me.

I've wondered about the great leap in human evolution when we went from hunter-gatherer to farmer-herder... Some books on paleo-anthropology think that we grew a larger brain to handle to larger society and political inter-play that came with all the changes. I'm not sure that is the complete answer.

Supposedly we needed a larger language to convey messages between more people. We needed to band together for protection and to share crops, surplus, winter supplies and seeds for the coming year. We neded warriors to protect us, leaders to lead the warriors, taxes to pay for people who fight and train, and writing to note who has payed and who owes their taxes, plots of land, how many animals etc. All of which seems logical and probibly true.

I have read others who say that as hunter bands we used sounds more sparingly and specifically. That we needed to communicate across distance but could not use a human voice as it would frighten the prey. Some writers see us dancing to share our tales of the hunt. Where we went, what we encountered and how we overcame it... all of that seems also true... Mostly, we taked. With words, melodious sounds, music we spent a great amount of time learning from one another and learning about one another.

Now, we have the electronic medium that allows strangers to communicate, share/buy/sell music, spout any idea we wish, say any foolishness and spread any lies we wish... We have no way of identifying the speaker. we have no way of confirming their knowledge, wisdom, experience as actual, real and not fantasy. Children are wonders at mimicking their parents and other adults... how do we know if we speak/listen with an adult or precocious child-?

for me, it's time. Children have a short attention span and cannot hold their interest for long. I also use big words and look for them in return. English has approximately 100,000 words. On average we use less than 5,000 in our daily conduct. All those left over words just lie there, waiting. Why so many-? specific words for specific feelings, meanings, items-? adoptions and adaptations of other languages that have blended in. Examples would be Boutique, Boondocks and you can supply your own...But when those words are used we know specifically what they mean... we also know the way they sound and the song we are composing as we form the next sentence.

Learning is something we do without even being aware. We find meaning in several levels with each sentence we say or hear. What was meant-? What was not meant-? Why -those- words-? did the word jangle with the rest of the sentence-? Yes, we are more complex than we thought... and more simple... After all, we're human. what -exactly- that means is something we are each defining as we go ahead with the business of living.

Now that I read for my personal pleasure I take time to read all the words and consider what the author meant. I am not fighting a clock to find nuggets of information that I can shape into bullets for my next encounter across the boardroom table o large desk.

Poetry has more meaning now. So should blog. I fear that blogs like poetry has more creators than consumers.

Truth

I wish that Paul Eckman had been more successful. Perhaps he was. But Heisenberg struck again. Humans being adaptable we have only gotten better at presenting the false as the true.

Finding truth is hard. Truth is time dated. Truth is often situational and based on the perspective of the observer. Truth is mostly something we avoid. We accept words from others as true. We don't examine our own words, motives and beliefs. We swear that we are speaking the truth. Yet, we're not sure that it is anything more that the "at this time" truth.

I have met people who lie as a test of my integrity, memory, and honesty. I have met those who lie simply because it is convenient and short. They see the truth as something that will require a long story, possibly revealing details about themselves or their loved ones best kept private.

When I meet a new person, I almost never inquire too deeply. Why ask for something uncomfortable to be revealed or force a lie-? Let each person sing their own song. If it's pretty, pleasing and accepted then that is all required for social chat.

Words say only 10% of our meaning. Or so I read long ago from an author I cannot remember. Most communication is done by body language. Some say that body language is 60-70% of our communication. Inflection, intonation and phrasing make up the remaining 20-30% of meaning. My Mother-in-Law was a master at speaking in an insulting tone then reverting to pained defense when repeating her words. Hard woman to be around. Luckily she made it clear she disliked me from the start. I tried to be social, polite and agreeable. I was there because of my wife and later the grand children. It's easy to be around people who dislike you and you know it. There is no wondering what you have done wrong, this time or at any time. She was an enigma. I have yet to meet anyone who felt they knew her.

The tale about the Garden of Eden is a lesson that too few actually spend much time considering. It is the first time (earliest-?) we have a tale about nakedness (and idea that something is wrong with seeing one another uncovered), lying and punishment.

I have wondered about that tale often. Some think it harkens back to a time before we began farming and herding for most of our diet. The tales of Cain and Abel are of a hunter and a farmer, murder and again a lie. What puzzles me is the Tree.

Specifically, "The Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil"


Why the "Knowledge of Good and Evil"-? Why Both-?

Spending time around animals, dogs mostly these day. But around horses, cows and chickens as a child, I find no memory of an animal knowing either good or evil... Why-? Animals understand right and wrong. They learn behavior. They know what -we- their leaders demand and expect. We humans also know what our leaders expect, demand, coerce. If we don't we soon find out.

Hitler, Mao, Stalin, Pol Pot, Saddam, and unnamed butchers around the world slaughter and slay humans using the efforts of other humans. Are they speaking any objective truth to convince their accomplices-? Do they simply lie and manipulate their desires to please, do good, help, improve, share the burden of leadership, etc. to convince others that slaughtering the innocents is a good thing-?

Where is "Good" and where is "Evil"-? Most will not see -real- good in their life. There are acts of kindness. But finding, observing, doing a real act of sacrifice for another is beyond them. We also refuse to recognize "evil" in an act and most particularly when it is laying latent, resting, within another. We listen to smooth blandishments and accept them as something true that explains to our naive ears/eyes what we thought we perceived was wrong.

We have had peace for a long period of human history. Europe has not had such a long period with neither wars between nations or bands of roving brigands seizing territory and conquering tribes to claim status as a nation, in a very long time.

Does this mean that Evil is vanquished-? That Good prevails around the world and that only confusion exists today-?

I wish I could accept that. Unfortunately, I have too much background, too much reading, too many associations with warriors to see the world as safe and peaceful.

So back to the original thought; What is "Truth"-? And why do we think we live in it-?

Life is precious. It is easy to kill and ruin life. It is hard to bring it into being, to nurture and protect it, and to educate tthe next generation that bad things happen to good people far too often while good things happen to bad people more often than we wish. How do we teach our children to know Truth from Lie and Good from Evil-?

What was really in that fruit-? Did we eat enough or just enough to grow foolish and believe we can aspire to meet a diety as an equal-?

As I age, I get more questions and find fewer answers... When I was young, I had many more answers and fewer questions.

AS I age, and as I listen-watch-observe, those would be our masters perform; I wonder if it is more dangerous to speak the truth or to simply ignore, cover it or spin it (a polite way of lying)... Which breeds more monsters-? Which feeds their analysis of the speaker/leader's strength and weakness-?

The chattering class who leap in and tell us how to think about what we just heard seem mindless, credentialed-but-ignorant, people who have never walked down a street they did not belong alone and unarmed.

Why Is The Economy Stalled-?

Michael Barone has a piece in the Washington Examiner asking this question. The responses reflect the absence of much adult, knowledgeable thought. No surprise as the internet allows anyone to spout off and demonstrate their wisdom. America has been known throughout our history as a place where the "yahoo's" and loudmouths are free to babble whatever they wish. Often, like the innocent lad watching the parade who asked "Why is the Emperor naked-?" the scales fall and we see our leaders revealed as mere mortals and not very respectable, honorable, wise ones at that.

Here is my view of the present economic situation....yes, it like everything on this blog or the internet is "For What It's Worth"...

I was hearing about Obama in the 4th quarter of '07. I was doing an acquisition and speaking to finance people-mostly high-net-worth-individuals. They were heading for the bunkers. stopping and unraveling their small business ventures. They foresaw a rise in taxes, capital gains and regulations. Since then, most small-mid-sized owners have felt that their government has drawn a gun and is using smoothing talk to make everyone ignore it. The rise in regulations, potential regulations, changes in law interpretations of established practices all make us uncertain.

Banks and lenders are all facing unknown regulations and capital reserve requirements. It is cheaper and safer to borrow at close to 0% and lend via T-bills. Balance sheets look safer and no questioning the lenders creditworthiness. They are raising what fees and charges they can as often as they can. Nobody knows what the rules will be in 2-3-5-10 years.

This is first time in over 40 years I have no payroll to meet. That is uncomfortable as a changed habit. However, I cannot see placing any resources at risk in this environment. We simply have no clue about what the rules will be, how much we must raise prices to pay for compliance, what changes in equipment will be, whether the consumer or buyers will pay the increased prices.

High risk for low or modest reward is a fools game and very likely criminal. Low risk for high reward is a lottery ticket. Most of us seek a modest/manageable risk with a slightly higher foreseeable reward. we manage risks and provide our personal bond to guarantee the trust a buyer places in us, lenders and suppliers place in us. This climate is fraught with too many variables that are simply unknown and unknowable.

"Fundamentally Transforming America" is something that we cannot quantify or evaluate and respond to. Profits are great, but losses are personal. We pledge our property, our name and our honor behind our ventures.

Who chooses risks their reputation in this climate-?

Who accepts our personal bond, in this climate-?

It is better to sit and watch, awaiting a clear path than to risk so much for so little.