"There is much to be said for not saying much."
-Frank Tyger
Today is the day we all get to vote. After almost two years we have hashed the candidates pretty finely. We have endured leaks, gaffs, spin-sound bites, spin and more spin.
By the end of the week we may know who will be our Fearless Leader. I say "end of the week" because I suspect there is enough voter fraud to slow things down and cloud the outcome. I hope I am wrong. I feel I am right.
I think that either candidate will only serve one term. McCain due to age. Obama due to his difficulty in -ACTUALLY- having to accomplish something. Pelosi and Reid will ram thru lots of stuff without consideration of the other 49% of Americans. When these actions fail, they will blame Obama and walk away like the Siamese cats leaving the fish bowl in "Lady and the Tramp"... The cats song applies to them as well.
In any event, we will still be one America. We will have tens of thousands who will do what they believe best for America at the sacrifice of their own comfort. We will also have a few thousand who will do what ever they can to advance their own comfort and ease. They will be assured that "someone else" will clean up the mess... They have lived this way all their life.
I am glad that the contest too so long. It winnowed out some very likely looking candidates who seemed to have the whole game in a suitcase and were waiting for the limo to sweep them to their coronation.
We will have a chance to vote our concerns, pleasures and outrage in two years. 435 Members of Congress and 33 Senators will be up for re-election...
The wisdom of our Founding Fathers is amazing. Their understanding of human weakness and passions was clear and unfazed by any fantasies of human nobility. We are not angels with a few frail and weak among us. We are cowards, lusting for more and willing to do any act for our own success...with a very few angels in our midst.
Tonight, when its all over. Hoist a tall glass of something strong and propose a toast to "America, Long may our banner waive. Long may our people be better than our politicians"... I will... The American people are better than any that we have every elected... We may deserve better. But we keep voting our wishes and hopes instead of our practical demands.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Debate
I'm burned out on politics and politicians. The Media have made it very clear that they control the message. That message is "Obama wins"
I will resume my Talk-Back Response to the debate when the transcripts are available... I realize I will lose the nuance of tone, inflection and body language. I don't think that matters as the media will tell us what we saw and why it's important.
The fools on the Hill see the sun going down and the eyes in their head see the sun spinning round... round, round, round... the conversation never stops and never reaches a point.
What is absolutely amazing is the paucity of knowledge about how our financial institutions work. We lack the ability to analyze the problem, understand the solution or see the opportunity this presents for everyone. We are no longer a nation of pioneers, risk takers or even aggressive business people. We have become a nation of wage slaves and shopkeepers. No wonder we flock o politicians who promise us free lunch, free medical care, free housing, free cars...all without risk or worry.
The Wall Street Journal has done an excellent job of describing the problems, its background, consequences and ramifications of the proposed solution. Please read the editorials, opinions and columns for this past week.
Or write me and I'll send you the links. Its all free now. www.opinionjournal.com has been free for some time.
This is the greatest opportunity to solve the Social Security problem, Medicare/Medicaid problem without raising taxes ever to come our way. Our fearless leaders are hiding under the bed and wishing they could vote "present". Others are larding up the plan to 102 pages of crap. i.e. 20% of all returns to be paid to ACORN. That's paying the community organizers more than the small town mayors. That could be as much as $440 Billion in taxpayer money going to a tax exempt organization that registers the dead, the never-living, and mythological citizens to vote for Barack Obama.
Have a good weekend. Watch little TV. Wait til Monday to see which way your stocks go. Only 40 days til election... One would think it was important the way the dirty tricks are being organized and pulled.
Read a good book-!
I will resume my Talk-Back Response to the debate when the transcripts are available... I realize I will lose the nuance of tone, inflection and body language. I don't think that matters as the media will tell us what we saw and why it's important.
The fools on the Hill see the sun going down and the eyes in their head see the sun spinning round... round, round, round... the conversation never stops and never reaches a point.
What is absolutely amazing is the paucity of knowledge about how our financial institutions work. We lack the ability to analyze the problem, understand the solution or see the opportunity this presents for everyone. We are no longer a nation of pioneers, risk takers or even aggressive business people. We have become a nation of wage slaves and shopkeepers. No wonder we flock o politicians who promise us free lunch, free medical care, free housing, free cars...all without risk or worry.
The Wall Street Journal has done an excellent job of describing the problems, its background, consequences and ramifications of the proposed solution. Please read the editorials, opinions and columns for this past week.
Or write me and I'll send you the links. Its all free now. www.opinionjournal.com has been free for some time.
This is the greatest opportunity to solve the Social Security problem, Medicare/Medicaid problem without raising taxes ever to come our way. Our fearless leaders are hiding under the bed and wishing they could vote "present". Others are larding up the plan to 102 pages of crap. i.e. 20% of all returns to be paid to ACORN. That's paying the community organizers more than the small town mayors. That could be as much as $440 Billion in taxpayer money going to a tax exempt organization that registers the dead, the never-living, and mythological citizens to vote for Barack Obama.
Have a good weekend. Watch little TV. Wait til Monday to see which way your stocks go. Only 40 days til election... One would think it was important the way the dirty tricks are being organized and pulled.
Read a good book-!
Thursday, September 25, 2008
This is Serious Folks
Where are the adults-? Why is everyone in the media so ignorant-? Why are our thought leaders so unwise in the ways of finance, Wall Street, the world-? This ain't a TV show or an Oliver Stone movie. There are no "bad" guys... There seem to be a few good guys trying to get in insane and addicted to steer away from the iceberg... I am holding my breath, saying my prayers, hoping for the best and preparing for the worst... What are you doing-?
Watching the hotel TV and listening to idiots babble... I thought several things.... and I'd like to share.
1) Most people have no idea how capital is formed and wealth created. Most people get a paycheck and spend most, save some then buy house, car and save for college. Some get retirement plans pushed at work and take em cause they're free... Outside of paycheck and balancing the checkbook, they are lost
2) Most TV folks cannot do math. They cannot calculate simple interest. They cannot make a budget and know whether they will be able to afford a payment.
3) Our leaders have no clue. Our Senators and Congrespeople are simple fools. They are slightly less able than your average drunk. They get paid to drink but lack the skills of a good manipulative hustler...
4) They do not understand the problem. They do not understand the proposed solution. They just "want it fixed, now" and then they want to blame Bush and/or the rich...
This is a GREAT opportunity for every teacher in America to teach simple business math. Operating statement (and budget) and Balance Sheet... No need for any explanations of derivatives, Collateralized debt instruments or anything suave... Just basic family and business math...
Instead we'll get a bunch of demagoguing and populist rabble rousing...
Watching the credit markets seize up during the course of the year has been an education for me. I suspected some troubles in housing/mortage industry because of the articles in the WSJ and Forbes... I have had several deals crater as lenders got cold feet and ramped up their nervousness rate. I was just quoted an outrageous rate to lease equipment... We walk away when the deal gets stupid. My partner and I have some strict guidelines and walk away when the other party gets foolish.... I saw a big shift in investor confidence when Obama and Democrats Pelosi and Reid sarted coming against the rich... I think we'll have some great investment opportunities over the next 12 months... If you're gonna play; Have a chat with yourself first. High rewards come from high risk. Low risks bring low-moderate rewards...
Just remember when you see the idiots on TV saying we need higher taxes and we need to get the top 1%... To raise revenue, you cut taxes. Kennedy did it, Reagan did it, Clinton did it(well, he didn't but Republicans did and gave him credit) and Bush did it... If they are serious about needing more money to pay bailout, debt etc... cutting taxes raises money....
As Obama told Gibson "Raising taxes is a question of fairness"... It's not about raising cash or paying bills...
Whatever the Politicians do, the market will take it into account and react accordingly. I trust the markets more than I trust Congress to do the right thing in the long run...
I was speaking with someone this morning about the seriousness of it all...and they were quoting TV, newspaper editorials and wondering where "their" personal bailout is...
People doan geddit...
This is not a crisis of bad loans. There are some bad loans mixed in with a bunch of good loans -AND- an accounting rule (post-ENRON inspired FAS 157 lookit up) that says you mark -ALL- assets to market... There are very very few people who buy bundled mortgages. A note representing 1,000 mortgages is not gonna be held by a whole bunch of people... When ONE holder needs cash and sells their note at a firesale-all notes of this thinly traded type must be marked down to firesale prices... This causes some institutions to need much more equity or capital or cash to keep their ratios inline with regulatory authority... creating a cascade affect on all such holders of these instruments... The vast majority (95%) of mortgages are still being serviced every month...
The original plan was for the Feds to buy these illiquid notes and hold tle maturity... These notes represent some value. Right now, nobody knows what they are because they have been written down so hard. Merrill sold itself for $.22 on the dollar because it couldn't see itself raising the extra capital to meet required ratios... The notes are good, but the rules say not... What would you pay for one-?
If you bought a bundle of 1,000 mortgages for $.22 on the dollar and held them to maturity you'd get rich. If 5% (present mortgage foreclosure rate) went bad you'd still have the underlying asset. Would that asset have dropped 78% in value-? You'd still have something worth more than you paid for it. Even at $.50 on the dollar you'd probably make some very good money on the returns...
The issue of sub-Prime notes means first that the home owner is less than good creditworthy... That means they are paying a premium interest rate plus higher fees to get the note to begin with. Many are Adjustable Rate Mortgages that adjust when interest rates go up... Many-many-many buyers thought they would 1) re-finance at higher valuation, 2) sell at higher valuation 3) re-finance to fixed note. Many-many-many home buyers in Bay Area and elsewhere saw low risk-high reward for getting into many such homes and renting them out. Their good credit and renters payments would build equity forever... However, prices quit rising. Rates went up. Re-financing was not an option... That forced many to walk away and caused many renters to get pushed out of homes they where they had never missed a payment...
Freddy and Fannie bought these sub-Prime notes, bundled them, sold em to Wall Street. Took the money and bought more mortgages. Along the way they paid $15-$16M in donations and lobbying to Congress. They also paid their head guys nearly $100M in bonuses and minor flunkies prorated amounts from the top banana... They also had sloppy accounting. If Freddy and Fannie were a truly Public company their top bananas would be in jail... but because they paid protection they got to keep their bonuses...
The problem with all this is that because the financial institutions are holding "bad" paper... They are not making any more loans. They are raising rates and fees and hoarding cash everywhere they can... The affect is all the small institutions are also bumping up their fees and interest rates... Interest rates have jumped three times over what they were a few months ago. Even Ford is forced to pay 7.5% for its prime money...
People saw the institutions seizing up and started to pull money from their Money Market accounts... There was a run on money market funds starting last week. If it had gone unchecked... we would have toppled the world. You cannot pull $1.7 trillion out and put it under the mattress without bad things happening... Money Market funds are not insured-at present- under the bailout they will be.... That should stop the run... BUT since the banks are paying so little on CDs and savings and have limit of $100,000, it won't be long before people move lots of cash from banks to Money market funds for higher rates and unlimited protection... Ultimately this will drive up mortgage rates... at same time as excess inventory drives down prices... (average home price dropped 11% in August following a 5% drop in July)....
If the financial market seizes up... The ONLY availbe funds will be what people have in their hands and bank accounts... Credit cards won't work... Lines of Credit won't work, home equity notes will be called or rates raised, lines of credit based on home equity will stop... all small business working capital will be based on cashflow... Customers will have to pay COD for all deliveries or shipments... There will be no new loans for vehicles or equipment...
The Bailout is to lubricate the economy-not take on bad loans- They are "bad" only because nobody will buy one at anywhere near their full value...once a few are bought then the mark-to-market action will raise all boats... Balance Sheets will have lots of higher valued assets plus cash and equity... Loans will flow... and credit standards will be raised but loans will be made-homes will start to be bought which will stabilize their values and stop the decline...
Doing nothing is to jump off a cliff...larding up the bill with crap will do nothing to solve the problem short term and will screw things up long term...
AIG insured the loans. They had insurance policy that said the bundled notes would be good... all the claims forced because the mark-to-market criteria was forcing AIG to pay out... Again a run on the insurance company... The Bailout would raise the value of the bundles and reduce the AIG exposure... The present "bailout" is merely a standby loan with warrants that convert to 80% of the stock...diluting the present Shareholders and making the Feds VERY RICH...
Cash is King... "He who got gold make rule"... Congress has the gold...their rules will decide if we go forward or backward... This is a financial problem that needs a financial solution. Unfortunately, I fear we may get a political solution along with a financial one.
This is serious... it can be worse.... It should get better if we can get some adults in the room to speak up... Not Barney Frank and Chris Dodd... They are clowns who have no clue and care less...
So... Tell me if I'm reading this wrong-? Tell me where/what I need to understand better...
Watching the hotel TV and listening to idiots babble... I thought several things.... and I'd like to share.
1) Most people have no idea how capital is formed and wealth created. Most people get a paycheck and spend most, save some then buy house, car and save for college. Some get retirement plans pushed at work and take em cause they're free... Outside of paycheck and balancing the checkbook, they are lost
2) Most TV folks cannot do math. They cannot calculate simple interest. They cannot make a budget and know whether they will be able to afford a payment.
3) Our leaders have no clue. Our Senators and Congrespeople are simple fools. They are slightly less able than your average drunk. They get paid to drink but lack the skills of a good manipulative hustler...
4) They do not understand the problem. They do not understand the proposed solution. They just "want it fixed, now" and then they want to blame Bush and/or the rich...
This is a GREAT opportunity for every teacher in America to teach simple business math. Operating statement (and budget) and Balance Sheet... No need for any explanations of derivatives, Collateralized debt instruments or anything suave... Just basic family and business math...
Instead we'll get a bunch of demagoguing and populist rabble rousing...
Watching the credit markets seize up during the course of the year has been an education for me. I suspected some troubles in housing/mortage industry because of the articles in the WSJ and Forbes... I have had several deals crater as lenders got cold feet and ramped up their nervousness rate. I was just quoted an outrageous rate to lease equipment... We walk away when the deal gets stupid. My partner and I have some strict guidelines and walk away when the other party gets foolish.... I saw a big shift in investor confidence when Obama and Democrats Pelosi and Reid sarted coming against the rich... I think we'll have some great investment opportunities over the next 12 months... If you're gonna play; Have a chat with yourself first. High rewards come from high risk. Low risks bring low-moderate rewards...
Just remember when you see the idiots on TV saying we need higher taxes and we need to get the top 1%... To raise revenue, you cut taxes. Kennedy did it, Reagan did it, Clinton did it(well, he didn't but Republicans did and gave him credit) and Bush did it... If they are serious about needing more money to pay bailout, debt etc... cutting taxes raises money....
As Obama told Gibson "Raising taxes is a question of fairness"... It's not about raising cash or paying bills...
Whatever the Politicians do, the market will take it into account and react accordingly. I trust the markets more than I trust Congress to do the right thing in the long run...
I was speaking with someone this morning about the seriousness of it all...and they were quoting TV, newspaper editorials and wondering where "their" personal bailout is...
People doan geddit...
This is not a crisis of bad loans. There are some bad loans mixed in with a bunch of good loans -AND- an accounting rule (post-ENRON inspired FAS 157 lookit up) that says you mark -ALL- assets to market... There are very very few people who buy bundled mortgages. A note representing 1,000 mortgages is not gonna be held by a whole bunch of people... When ONE holder needs cash and sells their note at a firesale-all notes of this thinly traded type must be marked down to firesale prices... This causes some institutions to need much more equity or capital or cash to keep their ratios inline with regulatory authority... creating a cascade affect on all such holders of these instruments... The vast majority (95%) of mortgages are still being serviced every month...
The original plan was for the Feds to buy these illiquid notes and hold tle maturity... These notes represent some value. Right now, nobody knows what they are because they have been written down so hard. Merrill sold itself for $.22 on the dollar because it couldn't see itself raising the extra capital to meet required ratios... The notes are good, but the rules say not... What would you pay for one-?
If you bought a bundle of 1,000 mortgages for $.22 on the dollar and held them to maturity you'd get rich. If 5% (present mortgage foreclosure rate) went bad you'd still have the underlying asset. Would that asset have dropped 78% in value-? You'd still have something worth more than you paid for it. Even at $.50 on the dollar you'd probably make some very good money on the returns...
The issue of sub-Prime notes means first that the home owner is less than good creditworthy... That means they are paying a premium interest rate plus higher fees to get the note to begin with. Many are Adjustable Rate Mortgages that adjust when interest rates go up... Many-many-many buyers thought they would 1) re-finance at higher valuation, 2) sell at higher valuation 3) re-finance to fixed note. Many-many-many home buyers in Bay Area and elsewhere saw low risk-high reward for getting into many such homes and renting them out. Their good credit and renters payments would build equity forever... However, prices quit rising. Rates went up. Re-financing was not an option... That forced many to walk away and caused many renters to get pushed out of homes they where they had never missed a payment...
Freddy and Fannie bought these sub-Prime notes, bundled them, sold em to Wall Street. Took the money and bought more mortgages. Along the way they paid $15-$16M in donations and lobbying to Congress. They also paid their head guys nearly $100M in bonuses and minor flunkies prorated amounts from the top banana... They also had sloppy accounting. If Freddy and Fannie were a truly Public company their top bananas would be in jail... but because they paid protection they got to keep their bonuses...
The problem with all this is that because the financial institutions are holding "bad" paper... They are not making any more loans. They are raising rates and fees and hoarding cash everywhere they can... The affect is all the small institutions are also bumping up their fees and interest rates... Interest rates have jumped three times over what they were a few months ago. Even Ford is forced to pay 7.5% for its prime money...
People saw the institutions seizing up and started to pull money from their Money Market accounts... There was a run on money market funds starting last week. If it had gone unchecked... we would have toppled the world. You cannot pull $1.7 trillion out and put it under the mattress without bad things happening... Money Market funds are not insured-at present- under the bailout they will be.... That should stop the run... BUT since the banks are paying so little on CDs and savings and have limit of $100,000, it won't be long before people move lots of cash from banks to Money market funds for higher rates and unlimited protection... Ultimately this will drive up mortgage rates... at same time as excess inventory drives down prices... (average home price dropped 11% in August following a 5% drop in July)....
If the financial market seizes up... The ONLY availbe funds will be what people have in their hands and bank accounts... Credit cards won't work... Lines of Credit won't work, home equity notes will be called or rates raised, lines of credit based on home equity will stop... all small business working capital will be based on cashflow... Customers will have to pay COD for all deliveries or shipments... There will be no new loans for vehicles or equipment...
The Bailout is to lubricate the economy-not take on bad loans- They are "bad" only because nobody will buy one at anywhere near their full value...once a few are bought then the mark-to-market action will raise all boats... Balance Sheets will have lots of higher valued assets plus cash and equity... Loans will flow... and credit standards will be raised but loans will be made-homes will start to be bought which will stabilize their values and stop the decline...
Doing nothing is to jump off a cliff...larding up the bill with crap will do nothing to solve the problem short term and will screw things up long term...
AIG insured the loans. They had insurance policy that said the bundled notes would be good... all the claims forced because the mark-to-market criteria was forcing AIG to pay out... Again a run on the insurance company... The Bailout would raise the value of the bundles and reduce the AIG exposure... The present "bailout" is merely a standby loan with warrants that convert to 80% of the stock...diluting the present Shareholders and making the Feds VERY RICH...
Cash is King... "He who got gold make rule"... Congress has the gold...their rules will decide if we go forward or backward... This is a financial problem that needs a financial solution. Unfortunately, I fear we may get a political solution along with a financial one.
This is serious... it can be worse.... It should get better if we can get some adults in the room to speak up... Not Barney Frank and Chris Dodd... They are clowns who have no clue and care less...
So... Tell me if I'm reading this wrong-? Tell me where/what I need to understand better...
Patriotic Taxation
Been muddling over Biden's "Paying Taxes is Patriotic" theme... He says the rich should pay more...
But his logic would have the top 1% of tax payers THIRTY-FIVE TIMES more patriotic than the lower 40% of taxpayers... I don't think that's necessarily so...
I was also thinking about the affects on our society when 40% of all the people who are of working age pay NOTHING and in some cases get paid by the govt for making so little...
Surely that breeds a dependency on the politicians who promise more-more-more... It also breeds a complacency about the country, about elections, about the way got is run and about how the nation is working... after all... it costs nothing and occasionally is profitable to be poor.
Under Obama and Pelosi the number of people NOT paying taxes will rise to almost 50%... The top 5% will pay more-more-more and not change any habits or behavior... But if the top 5% is so smart, won't they opt out-? Start their own companies, pay themselves whatever is left over and build equity-? Won't they buy ever bigger houses to get the homeowner decduction... won't lots and lots of tax games get played that are tax avoidance driven vs profit driven-?
When 5% goes from paying 70% of all bills to paying 100%...won't those numbers shrink-? Even taxing the dead won't raise enough to pay even greater freebies for the bottom 50%...
Didn't LBJ try something like this in the '60s...and didn't it lead to ever higher inflation-?
I see some huge rounds of inflation coming if Obama-Pelosi get their way... We'll go broke feeling rich...
I remember reading a tale of Eskimo hunters coating a double edged knife blade with seal grease and freexing the handle in the ice. The wolves would come along and lick the blade. Every lick would bring more warm blood into their belly. And they would die feeling warm, full and happy...
Is that us-?
But his logic would have the top 1% of tax payers THIRTY-FIVE TIMES more patriotic than the lower 40% of taxpayers... I don't think that's necessarily so...
I was also thinking about the affects on our society when 40% of all the people who are of working age pay NOTHING and in some cases get paid by the govt for making so little...
Surely that breeds a dependency on the politicians who promise more-more-more... It also breeds a complacency about the country, about elections, about the way got is run and about how the nation is working... after all... it costs nothing and occasionally is profitable to be poor.
Under Obama and Pelosi the number of people NOT paying taxes will rise to almost 50%... The top 5% will pay more-more-more and not change any habits or behavior... But if the top 5% is so smart, won't they opt out-? Start their own companies, pay themselves whatever is left over and build equity-? Won't they buy ever bigger houses to get the homeowner decduction... won't lots and lots of tax games get played that are tax avoidance driven vs profit driven-?
When 5% goes from paying 70% of all bills to paying 100%...won't those numbers shrink-? Even taxing the dead won't raise enough to pay even greater freebies for the bottom 50%...
Didn't LBJ try something like this in the '60s...and didn't it lead to ever higher inflation-?
I see some huge rounds of inflation coming if Obama-Pelosi get their way... We'll go broke feeling rich...
I remember reading a tale of Eskimo hunters coating a double edged knife blade with seal grease and freexing the handle in the ice. The wolves would come along and lick the blade. Every lick would bring more warm blood into their belly. And they would die feeling warm, full and happy...
Is that us-?
Monday, June 2, 2008
The War in Iraq- Thoughts
The drumbeats are sounding. Even the Washington Post has an editorial saying "We're winning". They are urging Obama to change his Iraq strategy now that he has cinched the nomination. He can dump the Ultra-Left and move to the Center where most of America lives. They conclude with
Jeff Lukens at American Thinker has some thoughts on "Was it worth it?"
It's nice that some people remember the poison gas. The Iranians do. The Kurds do. Saddams generals do. We took the treat seriously.
What should the President of the United States do when 1) we've been attacked by terrorists 2) a state sponsor of terrorism, with Weapons of Mass destruction and willingness to use them, continues to flaunt UN sanctions? 3) When the state sponsor of terrorism corrupts the UN and most of European bureaucracy with his "Oil-For-Food Program" bribes? 4) When we suspect another attack is imminent? Should he wait for another attack-?
The movies are the only places where the Good Guys let the Bad Guys draw first. The Old West Bad Guys were shot in the back, usually with shotguns wielded by farmers. Letting the bad guy fire first gets a lot of innocent bystander type good guys killed.
The question none of the anti-war Bush haters will answer: How many dead Americans before we act-? I've never been told the acceptable level of American dead we should suffer before we commit our forces.
The thought of terrorists with WMDs is scary. However, the worse thought is that we have no way to retaliate. Unlike the Cold War, we can have no Mutual Assured Destruction balance. If we lost a city, who do we nuke-? Do we really nuke the Mountains of Pakistan-? Tehran-? Damascus-? How do we respond to a WMD attack-?
We have learned to do counter-insurgency fairly well. Actually, we have re-learned it. We first learned it in Nicaragua, then forgot it. We were trying to re-learn it in Vietnam, but ran out of citizen patience. We were able to re-learn it and be effective in Iraq. Now, our Pentagon Chiefs want more troops trained for a battle in Europe or Asia against uniformed troops. They want bigger weapons systems, more toys... we may soon go back to sleep and have to re-learn how to do counter-insurgency. Generals need flagpoles and stuff to park beneath it. They need troops to stand in formation around em. A peacetime military needs to justify it's existence by asking Congress for more flagpoles and everything that surrounds it. Otherwise, you don't need all those generals.
From the terrorist, narco-trafficante, narco-terrorist, rogue state perspective; insurgency works. It's cheap, scalable, effective . Forces need little training or discipline so no bases. No uniforms, just used weapons. New recruits can be rounded up either by the press-gangs or internet trolling. They will not likely face trained and disciplined troops who will have the will to fight a lengthy counter-insurgency... Russia has not been successful in Chechnya. Just tramped them down for now. China the same with Tibet.
Was Iraq it worth it-?
I think so. We would have lost more civilians in a WMD attack by terrorists. We would have seen the UN and most of Europe corrupted by seven more years of Oil-for-Food bribes. We may have seen more radicals in control of more oil producing countries in the Middle East. (Would we really have invaded Saudi Arabia if al Quaida had overthrown the govt-? Mecca and Medina off limits to pursuit or attack-? )
It's easy to rant and scream rabid vitriol... it's harder to explain where someone went wrong and why the path not taken was better... Until we invaded, everyone thought Saddam had WMDs and would not hesitate to use them... Should we live with that kind of threat-?
When Mr. Obama floated his strategy for Iraq last year, the United States appeared doomed to defeat. Now he needs a plan for success.
Jeff Lukens at American Thinker has some thoughts on "Was it worth it?"
No one likes to go to war, but even an elective war is sometimes necessary. With all the consternation these past years, President Bush may finally be able to say "Mission Accomplished" to what he originally set out to do.
This we know, Saddam had Weapons of Mass Destruction. He even gassed his own Kurd and Shiite populations in the 1980s. What happened to those chemical weapons? Who knows? Whether they buried them in the ground somewhere or trucked off to Syria, we had every reason to believe he had them.
It's nice that some people remember the poison gas. The Iranians do. The Kurds do. Saddams generals do. We took the treat seriously.
What should the President of the United States do when 1) we've been attacked by terrorists 2) a state sponsor of terrorism, with Weapons of Mass destruction and willingness to use them, continues to flaunt UN sanctions? 3) When the state sponsor of terrorism corrupts the UN and most of European bureaucracy with his "Oil-For-Food Program" bribes? 4) When we suspect another attack is imminent? Should he wait for another attack-?
The movies are the only places where the Good Guys let the Bad Guys draw first. The Old West Bad Guys were shot in the back, usually with shotguns wielded by farmers. Letting the bad guy fire first gets a lot of innocent bystander type good guys killed.
The question none of the anti-war Bush haters will answer: How many dead Americans before we act-? I've never been told the acceptable level of American dead we should suffer before we commit our forces.
The thought of terrorists with WMDs is scary. However, the worse thought is that we have no way to retaliate. Unlike the Cold War, we can have no Mutual Assured Destruction balance. If we lost a city, who do we nuke-? Do we really nuke the Mountains of Pakistan-? Tehran-? Damascus-? How do we respond to a WMD attack-?
We have learned to do counter-insurgency fairly well. Actually, we have re-learned it. We first learned it in Nicaragua, then forgot it. We were trying to re-learn it in Vietnam, but ran out of citizen patience. We were able to re-learn it and be effective in Iraq. Now, our Pentagon Chiefs want more troops trained for a battle in Europe or Asia against uniformed troops. They want bigger weapons systems, more toys... we may soon go back to sleep and have to re-learn how to do counter-insurgency. Generals need flagpoles and stuff to park beneath it. They need troops to stand in formation around em. A peacetime military needs to justify it's existence by asking Congress for more flagpoles and everything that surrounds it. Otherwise, you don't need all those generals.
From the terrorist, narco-trafficante, narco-terrorist, rogue state perspective; insurgency works. It's cheap, scalable, effective . Forces need little training or discipline so no bases. No uniforms, just used weapons. New recruits can be rounded up either by the press-gangs or internet trolling. They will not likely face trained and disciplined troops who will have the will to fight a lengthy counter-insurgency... Russia has not been successful in Chechnya. Just tramped them down for now. China the same with Tibet.
Was Iraq it worth it-?
I think so. We would have lost more civilians in a WMD attack by terrorists. We would have seen the UN and most of Europe corrupted by seven more years of Oil-for-Food bribes. We may have seen more radicals in control of more oil producing countries in the Middle East. (Would we really have invaded Saudi Arabia if al Quaida had overthrown the govt-? Mecca and Medina off limits to pursuit or attack-? )
It's easy to rant and scream rabid vitriol... it's harder to explain where someone went wrong and why the path not taken was better... Until we invaded, everyone thought Saddam had WMDs and would not hesitate to use them... Should we live with that kind of threat-?
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Jottings -Updates- Random Thoughts
Economy
It's been a while. Almost two months since I penned my comments on the Recession. We still have no Recession. Some may argue that a .06 increase to a .08 increase isn't very much. However, it's not a decrease. The classical definition is two quarters of reduced (negative) growth. We haven't had any. We may not
I can see some glimmers of the end of the economic downturn. If our politicians don't screw it up by pouring more money (and tax increases) on special interests that reward the quick and easy while purporting to save the slow and diligent. The credit freeze is starting to un-lax (Unwind and relax, My kids said that. It fits.) Loans are being made and people are buying big ticket items. The 47% Bonus depreciation that was included in the Free Money stimulus package will start to kick in in the Third and Fourth Quarters of the year.
Overall, I think we have a bit of "Stagflation" happening. Gasoline costs are driving up the prices of everything but we haven't had an increase in payroll. We are promised huge tax increases by the Democrats next year. So, people are moving their investments into assets. Inflation will make the assets worth more (really the same in constant dollars) Congress will get more money from bracket creep and the bonus depreciation will make the new items cheaper... The low dollar should be making our exports a great bargain. We should have lots of tourists from abroad spending their bigger money on our bargain destinations... But we cannot depend on these sources of income to help pull us around. I look for higher interest rates in the near and long term. We need to make investments in the US competitive and profitable again. I'd like to see us sell some gold and soak up some of the dollars floating around the world. That won't happen for fear of causing a panic.
Oil is a bubble. Anything above $30/bbl is a function of 1) war premium and 2) speculation by lots of big funds and soveriegn nations. Iran is hoarding their oil offshore in tankers. This removes several million bbls from the market and drives up the prices of transportation. In the meantime, Brazil has discovered an estimated 33 billion bbls in deep water offshore. They have tied up many/most of the deep water rigs for their exploration. China will develop the Cuban oil fields and the US will sit with pristine beaches and pay-pay-pay. Sometimes it seems we have adopted the Malcolm Forbes strategy from the 1970's. He urged America to use up everyone else's oil first and then develop our own resources. What we need is to get busy developing our alternatives...
Global Warming
At $6/gal we will change the way we live. At $4/gal we're starting to cut back. The whole Global Warming scam is designed to force us to live poor. The proposed Cap-and-Trade program for businesses is but the opening for personal carbon rationing. I can easily see a time when each of us will be given a ration card. As we use carbon we will be dinged. When we run out, we will be forced to buy more from our less active or industrious fellow citizens...or from the govt. Every gallon of gas, every kilowatt hour, every airplane flight will be subject to rationing.
This is Free Money for the govt. They will create an artificial shortage. They will sell us access to the carbon gases. They will control the supply and not have to actually produce anything in return. They limit the number of nuclear power plants. They limit refinery development. They limit exploration. They define what types of oil we can develop (No Oil Shale, No Canadian Tar Sands)... Of Course, as our Masters and Superior Beings traveling on Important Govt business, they will be exempt from the same rationing scheme.
Can't happen here-? Why not-?
What do we do when the earth turns cold-? Over the past 100,000 years cold has been the dominant weather pattern. We look at our industrial history and become frightened. We see how we have changed and advanced. Things that killed us by the millions 100 years ago are seldom seen by the modern doctors... We are afraid of our success. We have created a new religion that demands great leaps of faith because the scientific evidence is shallow at best. We now need to force everyone to sacrifice for the noble cause. Of course, being humans we all know that those who advocate the most sacrifices will be among the few suffering the least.
What do you think-?
It's been a while. Almost two months since I penned my comments on the Recession. We still have no Recession. Some may argue that a .06 increase to a .08 increase isn't very much. However, it's not a decrease. The classical definition is two quarters of reduced (negative) growth. We haven't had any. We may not
I can see some glimmers of the end of the economic downturn. If our politicians don't screw it up by pouring more money (and tax increases) on special interests that reward the quick and easy while purporting to save the slow and diligent. The credit freeze is starting to un-lax (Unwind and relax, My kids said that. It fits.) Loans are being made and people are buying big ticket items. The 47% Bonus depreciation that was included in the Free Money stimulus package will start to kick in in the Third and Fourth Quarters of the year.
Overall, I think we have a bit of "Stagflation" happening. Gasoline costs are driving up the prices of everything but we haven't had an increase in payroll. We are promised huge tax increases by the Democrats next year. So, people are moving their investments into assets. Inflation will make the assets worth more (really the same in constant dollars) Congress will get more money from bracket creep and the bonus depreciation will make the new items cheaper... The low dollar should be making our exports a great bargain. We should have lots of tourists from abroad spending their bigger money on our bargain destinations... But we cannot depend on these sources of income to help pull us around. I look for higher interest rates in the near and long term. We need to make investments in the US competitive and profitable again. I'd like to see us sell some gold and soak up some of the dollars floating around the world. That won't happen for fear of causing a panic.
Oil is a bubble. Anything above $30/bbl is a function of 1) war premium and 2) speculation by lots of big funds and soveriegn nations. Iran is hoarding their oil offshore in tankers. This removes several million bbls from the market and drives up the prices of transportation. In the meantime, Brazil has discovered an estimated 33 billion bbls in deep water offshore. They have tied up many/most of the deep water rigs for their exploration. China will develop the Cuban oil fields and the US will sit with pristine beaches and pay-pay-pay. Sometimes it seems we have adopted the Malcolm Forbes strategy from the 1970's. He urged America to use up everyone else's oil first and then develop our own resources. What we need is to get busy developing our alternatives...
Global Warming
At $6/gal we will change the way we live. At $4/gal we're starting to cut back. The whole Global Warming scam is designed to force us to live poor. The proposed Cap-and-Trade program for businesses is but the opening for personal carbon rationing. I can easily see a time when each of us will be given a ration card. As we use carbon we will be dinged. When we run out, we will be forced to buy more from our less active or industrious fellow citizens...or from the govt. Every gallon of gas, every kilowatt hour, every airplane flight will be subject to rationing.
This is Free Money for the govt. They will create an artificial shortage. They will sell us access to the carbon gases. They will control the supply and not have to actually produce anything in return. They limit the number of nuclear power plants. They limit refinery development. They limit exploration. They define what types of oil we can develop (No Oil Shale, No Canadian Tar Sands)... Of Course, as our Masters and Superior Beings traveling on Important Govt business, they will be exempt from the same rationing scheme.
Can't happen here-? Why not-?
What do we do when the earth turns cold-? Over the past 100,000 years cold has been the dominant weather pattern. We look at our industrial history and become frightened. We see how we have changed and advanced. Things that killed us by the millions 100 years ago are seldom seen by the modern doctors... We are afraid of our success. We have created a new religion that demands great leaps of faith because the scientific evidence is shallow at best. We now need to force everyone to sacrifice for the noble cause. Of course, being humans we all know that those who advocate the most sacrifices will be among the few suffering the least.
What do you think-?
Monday, April 7, 2008
Recession -NOW -Update
Are we in a Recession-?
It's been a long time since we had one. The one in 1992 was a "hair-shirt" recession. We talked ourselves into it and we popped out again without the majority of the country feeling anything except worry. We haven't had one in a long time. We're losing the population that lived through the Big Depression.
The slight depression early in the Bush years scared the Republicans enough to push for tax breaks. This one is being fueled by:
1 Fears of a Democrat controlled Congress and White House. Together they have promised to not only let the Bush Tax Breaks expire (prompting a huge tax increase) but to add new taxes and regulations to businesses and The Rich. (Whoever they are-we're never told if we are one or not I don't know who to hate, feel pity or be depressed over.) The Democrat controlled govt is already talking about protectionism and abrogating the NAFTA trade agreements simply "because". They over look the historical affects of the Smoot-Hawley Act which is credited with destroying over 60% or the worlds trade and driving the worldwide Great Depression even deeper. They claim they want the US to use "soft force" to deal with drugs, narco-terrorism and terrorism. Yet they refuse to approve the Columbia Free Trade Agreement. This agreement will improve exports from the US. It will allow Columbian farmers to have a viable economic alternative to the cocaine and marijuana crops. What do the Democrats REALLY want-? The world and America waits for some clarity.
2) the Credit Freeze. Nobody knows what their collateralized securities are worth. They're forced to mark them to market, but the market keeps moving and when it drops the asset value drops. Which spins the cycle yet again. There was some fraud and some theft but not to the degree that companies are writing off their holdings. The knock-on effect is that all funding institutions are looking for belt-and-suspender guarantee on any loans. If the Freeze continues then only the credit card companies with usurous rates will be providing liquidity to the economy.
3) Sinking Dollar is harming our exports. We need an active Fed to start pulling dollars off the market. They can do this by buying in dollars with either foreign currency or swapping some of the gold we hold. At around $1,000/per ounce the US needs to sell some gold, platinum and palladium. (no wonder the meth addicts are stealing catalytic converters from the driveways at night). Gold, Silver,oil are commodity prices all reflect the surplus of US Dollars floating about the world. We cannot raise interest rates in the middle of this credit freeze. Too many contracts are tied to the Fed Rate.
Here are a couple of tidbits from the daily news feed that you may have missed;
The leader of the NBER personally thinks we are sliding into a recession. The NBER, (National Bureau of Economic Research,) a non-profit research organization, typically declares start and end dates for U.S. recessions. The group has not officially declared the U.S. is in a recession.
Transportation is a leading indicator of the economy.
BNSF Idles Freight Cars Due to Downturn
Freight railroad BNSF Railway Co. is parking miles of rail cars in some parts of the country because there is not enough freight to keep them moving, the Associated Press reported Monday.
ISM Contraction May Indicate Trucking Upturn, Analyst Says
Last week’s Institute of Supply Management report that showed continued contraction may actually be good for the trucking industry’s outlook, according to an industry analyst, the Associated Press reported.
I read the two as saying long term freight is gonna slow down. Short and intermediate freight demands will draw down inventories until demand returns. Manufacturing will slow and if demand does not rise, stop. Then we are in deep trouble. Loans must be paid, insurance must be paid, rents, leases and mortgages must be paid, even if there is no manufacturing or sales of goods and services.
Things are not that bad. They probably will never get that bad. Our fears will make them worse. Our politicians may create a problem where one could have been avoided. we don't have to have a recession or depression. The market is correcting itself. The fire will be over before the fire brigades can react-but they may pass laws that make it harder to avoid or correct in the future.
In seven months we will know much more than we do today. Unfortunately, the country cannot hold its reath for that long. Plans will be made, approvals granted or denied, commitments made based upon the best estimates of what the economy will be doing in 2009 and 2010.
What does it all mean-?
How do you read the headlines-?
It's been a long time since we had one. The one in 1992 was a "hair-shirt" recession. We talked ourselves into it and we popped out again without the majority of the country feeling anything except worry. We haven't had one in a long time. We're losing the population that lived through the Big Depression.
The slight depression early in the Bush years scared the Republicans enough to push for tax breaks. This one is being fueled by:
1 Fears of a Democrat controlled Congress and White House. Together they have promised to not only let the Bush Tax Breaks expire (prompting a huge tax increase) but to add new taxes and regulations to businesses and The Rich. (Whoever they are-we're never told if we are one or not I don't know who to hate, feel pity or be depressed over.) The Democrat controlled govt is already talking about protectionism and abrogating the NAFTA trade agreements simply "because". They over look the historical affects of the Smoot-Hawley Act which is credited with destroying over 60% or the worlds trade and driving the worldwide Great Depression even deeper. They claim they want the US to use "soft force" to deal with drugs, narco-terrorism and terrorism. Yet they refuse to approve the Columbia Free Trade Agreement. This agreement will improve exports from the US. It will allow Columbian farmers to have a viable economic alternative to the cocaine and marijuana crops. What do the Democrats REALLY want-? The world and America waits for some clarity.
2) the Credit Freeze. Nobody knows what their collateralized securities are worth. They're forced to mark them to market, but the market keeps moving and when it drops the asset value drops. Which spins the cycle yet again. There was some fraud and some theft but not to the degree that companies are writing off their holdings. The knock-on effect is that all funding institutions are looking for belt-and-suspender guarantee on any loans. If the Freeze continues then only the credit card companies with usurous rates will be providing liquidity to the economy.
3) Sinking Dollar is harming our exports. We need an active Fed to start pulling dollars off the market. They can do this by buying in dollars with either foreign currency or swapping some of the gold we hold. At around $1,000/per ounce the US needs to sell some gold, platinum and palladium. (no wonder the meth addicts are stealing catalytic converters from the driveways at night). Gold, Silver,oil are commodity prices all reflect the surplus of US Dollars floating about the world. We cannot raise interest rates in the middle of this credit freeze. Too many contracts are tied to the Fed Rate.
Here are a couple of tidbits from the daily news feed that you may have missed;
The leader of the NBER personally thinks we are sliding into a recession. The NBER, (National Bureau of Economic Research,) a non-profit research organization, typically declares start and end dates for U.S. recessions. The group has not officially declared the U.S. is in a recession.
Transportation is a leading indicator of the economy.
BNSF Idles Freight Cars Due to Downturn
Freight railroad BNSF Railway Co. is parking miles of rail cars in some parts of the country because there is not enough freight to keep them moving, the Associated Press reported Monday.
ISM Contraction May Indicate Trucking Upturn, Analyst Says
Last week’s Institute of Supply Management report that showed continued contraction may actually be good for the trucking industry’s outlook, according to an industry analyst, the Associated Press reported.
I read the two as saying long term freight is gonna slow down. Short and intermediate freight demands will draw down inventories until demand returns. Manufacturing will slow and if demand does not rise, stop. Then we are in deep trouble. Loans must be paid, insurance must be paid, rents, leases and mortgages must be paid, even if there is no manufacturing or sales of goods and services.
Things are not that bad. They probably will never get that bad. Our fears will make them worse. Our politicians may create a problem where one could have been avoided. we don't have to have a recession or depression. The market is correcting itself. The fire will be over before the fire brigades can react-but they may pass laws that make it harder to avoid or correct in the future.
In seven months we will know much more than we do today. Unfortunately, the country cannot hold its reath for that long. Plans will be made, approvals granted or denied, commitments made based upon the best estimates of what the economy will be doing in 2009 and 2010.
What does it all mean-?
How do you read the headlines-?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
